Progress on “Changing coastlines: data assimilation for morphodynamic prediction and predictability”

The task of assessing the likelihood and extent of coastal flooding is hampered by the lack of detailed information on near-shore bathymetry. This is required as an input for coastal inundation models, and in some cases the variability in the bathymetry can impact the prediction of those areas likely to be affected by flooding in a storm. The constant monitoring and data collection that would be required to characterise the near-shore bathymetry over large coastal areas is impractical, leaving the option of running morphodynamic models to predict the likely bathymetry at any given time. However, if the models are inaccurate the errors may be significant if incorrect bathymetry is used to predict possible flood risks. This project is assessing the use of data assimilation techniques to improve the predictions from a simple model, by rigorously incorporating observations of the bathymetry into the model, to bring the model closer to the actual situation. Currently we are concentrating on Morecambe Bay as a primary study site, as it has a highly dynamic inter-tidal zone, with changes in the course of channels in this zone impacting the likely locations of flooding from storms. We are working with SAR images, LiDAR, and swath bathymetry to give us the observations over a 2.5 year period running from May 2003 – November 2005. We have a LiDAR image of the entire inter-tidal zone for November 2005 to use as validation data. We have implemented a 3D-Var data assimilation scheme, to investigate the improvements in performance of the data assimilation compared to the previous scheme which was based on the optimal interpolation method. We are currently evaluating these different data assimilation techniques, using 22 SAR data observations. We will also include the LiDAR data and swath bathymetry to improve the observational coverage, and investigate the impact of different types of observation on the predictive ability of the model. We are also assessing the ability of the data assimilation scheme to recover the correct bathymetry after storm events, which can dramatically change the bathymetry in a short period of time.

On the steadiness of separating meandering currents

The existence of inertial steady currents that separate from a coast and meander afterward is investigated. By integrating the zonal momentum equation over a suitable area, it is shown that retroflecting currents cannot be steady in a reduced gravity or in a barotropic model of the ocean. Even friction cannot negate this conclusion. Previous literature on this subject, notably the discrepancy between several articles by Nof and Pichevin on the unsteadiness of retroflecting currents and steady solutions presented in other papers, is critically discussed. For more general separating current systems, a local analysis of the zonal momentum balance shows that given a coastal current with a specific zonal momentum structure, an inertial, steady, separating current is unlikely, and the only analytical solution provided in the literature is shown to be inconsistent. In a basin-wide view of these separating current systems, a scaling analysis reveals that steady separation is impossible when the interior flow is nondissipative (e.g., linear Sverdrup-like). These findings point to the possibility that a large part of the variability in the world’s oceans is due to the separation process rather than to instability of a free jet.

An overview of Earth’s global electric circuit and atmospheric conductivity

The Earth’s global atmospheric electric circuit depends on the upper and lower atmospheric boundaries formed by the ionosphere and the planetary surface. Thunderstorms and electrified rain clouds drive a DC current (∼1 kA) around the circuit, with the current carried by molecular cluster ions; lightning phenomena drive the AC global circuit. The Earth’s near-surface conductivity ranges from 10−7 S m−1 (for poorly conducting rocks) to 10−2 S m−1 (for clay or wet limestone), with a mean value of 3.2 S m−1 for the ocean. Air conductivity inside a thundercloud, and in fair weather regions, depends on location (especially geomagnetic latitude), aerosol pollution and height, and varies from ∼10−14 S m−1 just above the surface to 10−7 S m−1 in the ionosphere at ∼80 km altitude. Ionospheric conductivity is a tensor quantity due to the geomagnetic field, and is determined by parameters such as electron density and electron–neutral particle collision frequency. In the current source regions, point discharge (coronal) currents play an important role below electrified clouds; the solar wind-magnetosphere dynamo and the unipolar dynamo due to the terrestrial rotating dipole moment also apply atmospheric potential differences. Detailed measurements made near the Earth’s surface show that Ohm’s law relates the vertical electric field and current density to air conductivity. Stratospheric balloon measurements launched from Antarctica confirm that the downward current density is ∼1 pA m−2 under fair weather conditions. Fortuitously, a Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) event arrived at Earth during one such balloon flight, changing the observed atmospheric conductivity and electric fields markedly. Recent modelling considers lightning discharge effects on the ionosphere’s electric potential (∼+250 kV with respect to the Earth’s surface) and hence on the fair weather potential gradient (typically ∼130 V m−1 close to the Earth’s surface. We conclude that cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning discharges make only a small contribution to the ionospheric potential, and that sprites (namely, upward lightning above energetic thunderstorms) only affect the global circuit in a miniscule way. We also investigate the effects of mesoscale convective systems on the global circuit.

Aging is associated with positive responding to neutral information but reduced recovery from negative information

Studies on aging and emotion suggest an increase in reported positive affect, a processing bias of positive over negative information, as well as increasingly adaptive regulation in response to negative events with advancing age. These findings imply that older individuals evaluate information differently, resulting in lowered reactivity to, and/or faster recovery from, negative information, while maintaining more positive responding to positive information. We examined this hypothesis in an ongoing study on Midlife in the US (MIDUS II) where emotional reactivity and recovery were assessed in a large number of respondents (N = 159) from a wide age range (36–84 years). We recorded eye-blink startle magnitudes and corrugator activity during and after the presentation of positive, neutral and negative pictures. The most robust age effect was found in response to neutral stimuli, where increasing age is associated with a decreased corrugator and eyeblink startle response to neutral stimuli. These data suggest that an age-related positivity effect does not essentially alter the response to emotion-laden information, but is reflected in a more positive interpretation of affectively ambiguous information. Furthermore, older women showed reduced corrugator recovery from negative pictures relative to the younger women and men, suggesting that an age-related prioritization of well-being is not necessarily reflected in adaptive regulation of negative affect.

In vitro evaluation of fibrolytic enzymes as additives for maize (Zea mays L.) silage - I. Effects of ensiling temperature, enzyme source and addition level

A series of experiments was completed to investigate the impact of addition of enzymes at ensiling on in vitro rumen degradation of maize silage. Two commercial products, Depot 40 (D, Biocatalysts Ltd., Pontypridd, UK) and Liquicell 2500 (L, Specialty Enzymes and Biochemicals, Fresno, CA, USA), were used. In experiment 1, the pH optima over a pH range 4.0-6.8 and the stability of D and L under changing pH (4.0, 5.6, 6.8) and temperature (15 and 39 degreesC) conditions were determined. In experiment 2, D and L were applied at three levels to whole crop maize at ensiling, using triplicate 0.5 kg capacity laboratory minisilos. A completely randomized design with a factorial arrangement of treatments was used. One set of treatments was stored at room temperature, whereas another set was stored at 40 degreesC during the first 3 weeks of fermentation, and then stored at room temperature. Silages were opened after 120 days. Results from experiment I indicated that the xylanase activity of both products showed an optimal pH of about 5.6, but the response differed according to the enzyme, whereas the endoglucanase activity was inversely related to pH. Both products retained at least 70% of their xylanase activity after 48 h incubation at 15 or 39 degreesC. In experiment 2, enzymes reduced (P < 0.05) silage pH, regardless of storage temperature and enzyme level. Depol 40 reduced (P < 0.05) the starch contents of the silages, due to its high alpha-amylase activity. This effect was more noticeable in the silages stored at room temperature. Addition of L reduced (P < 0.05) neutral detergent fiber (NDF) and acid detergent fiber (ADF) contents. In vitro rumen degradation, assessed using the Reading Pressure Technique (RPT), showed that L increased (P < 0.05) the initial 6 h gas production (GP) and organic matter degradability (OMD), but did not affect (P > 0.05) the final extent of OMD, indicating that this preparation acted on the rumen degradable material. In contrast, silages treated with D had reduced (P < 0.05) rates of gas production and OMD. These enzymes, regardless of ensiling temperature, can be effective in improving the nutritive quality of maize silage when applied at ensiling. However, the biochemical properties of enzymes (i.e., enzymic activities, optimum pH) may have a crucial role in dictating the nature of the responses. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

In situ degradability of dry matter and neutral-detergent fibre of thorn scrubland forage consumed by goats in the semi-arid region of north Mexico

Three goats provided with oesophageal and ruminal cannulae were used to determine variations in dry matter (DM) and neutral-detergent fibre (NDF) degradability of the forage consumed when grazing thorn scrubland in the semi-arid region of north Mexico, during two consecutive dry and wet periods. Ingesta samples were incubated intraruminally, the data were fitted to the exponential equation P = a + b (1-e(-ct)) and statistically analysed using a randomized-block design. Organic matter and crude protein (CP) contents were higher (P < 0.05) in the wet seasons. Values of NDF were similar in dry and wet season of both years whereas higher numerical values of acid-detergent fibre (ADF), lignin and cellulose were registered in the dry seasons. DM and NDF degradabilities after 24 and 48 h of ruminal incubation were higher (P < 0.05) in the wet seasons. Higher values (P < 0.05) in DM and NDF bag losses at zero time (A fraction) were registered in the two wet seasons. The insoluble but fermentable DM and NDF (B fractions) were higher (P < 0.05) in the 1999 wet season and variable in the rest of the studied period. Numerically higher values of DM and NDF c fraction were found in wet periods, whereas DM and NDF potential degradabilities were higher (P < 0.05) in the wet season in 1999 and similar across seasons in 2000. Lowest (P < 0.05) contents of CP in grazed forage, DM and NDF degradabilities after 48 h of ruminal incubation, and A, and B, and c fractions were observed in the dry seasons. Thus, these results may be related to both the lower feeding value of forage consumed by the animals and lower performance of livestock during this period. Then, the DM and NDF degradability after 48 h, together with the insoluble but fermentable matter and the c fraction permit the nutritive value of the forage consumed by grazing goats to be accurately described.