Evaluating forecasts from SETAR models of exchange rates

We consider the forecasting performance of two SETAR exchange rate models proposed by Kräger and Kugler [J. Int. Money Fin. 12 (1993) 195]. Assuming that the models are good approximations to the data generating process, we show that whether the non-linearities inherent in the data can be exploited to forecast better than a random walk depends on both how forecast accuracy is assessed and on the ‘state of nature’. Evaluation based on traditional measures, such as (root) mean squared forecast errors, may mask the superiority of the non-linear models. Generalized impulse response functions are also calculated as a means of portraying the asymmetric response to shocks implied by such models.

Cloud clearing techniques over land for land surface temperature retrieval from the Advanced Along Track Scanning Radiometer

We present five new cloud detection algorithms over land based on dynamic threshold or Bayesian techniques, applicable to the Advanced Along Track Scanning Radiometer (AATSR) instrument and compare these with the standard threshold based SADIST cloud detection scheme. We use a manually classified dataset as a reference to assess algorithm performance and quantify the impact of each cloud detection scheme on land surface temperature (LST) retrieval. The use of probabilistic Bayesian cloud detection methods improves algorithm true skill scores by 8-9 % over SADIST (maximum score of 77.93 % compared to 69.27 %). We present an assessment of the impact of imperfect cloud masking, in relation to the reference cloud mask, on the retrieved AATSR LST imposing a 2 K tolerance over a 3x3 pixel domain. We find an increase of 5-7 % in the observations falling within this tolerance when using Bayesian methods (maximum of 92.02 % compared to 85.69 %). We also demonstrate that the use of dynamic thresholds in the tests employed by SADIST can significantly improve performance, applicable to cloud-test data to provided by the Sea and Land Surface Temperature Radiometer (SLSTR) due to be launched on the Sentinel 3 mission (estimated 2014).

Potential sources of mouth drying in beverages fortified with dairy proteins: a comparison of casein and whey-rich ingredients

Oral nutritional supplement drinks (ONS) are beverages high in dairy proteins that are prescribed to individuals at risk of malnutrition. Consumption of ONS is poor in elderly care facilities, with patients commenting that the sensory attributes of these drinks reduce their enjoyment and willingness to consume. Mouth drying is an attribute of ONS found to build with repeated consumption, which may further limit liking of these products. This study investigated the sources of drying sensations by sequential profiling, with a trained sensory panel rating a range of model milk systems and ONS over repeated sips and during after-effects. Sequential profiling found that fortification of milk with both caseinate and whey protein concentrate significantly increased the perception of mouth drying over repeated consumption, increasing by between 35 and 85% over consumption of 40mL. Enrichment of ONS with either whey protein concentrate or milk protein concentrate to a total protein content of 8.7% (wt/wt) resulted in whey and casein levels of 4.3:4.4% and 1.7:7.0% respectively. The product higher in whey protein was substantially more mouth drying, implying that whey proteins may be the most important contributor to mouth drying in ONS. However, efforts to mask mouth drying of protein-fortified milk by increasing sweetness or fat level were unsuccessful at the levels tested. Increasing the viscosity of protein-fortified milk led to a small but significant reduction in mouth drying. However, this approach was not successful when tested within complete ONS. Further analysis is required into the mechanism of protein-derived mouth drying to mask negative sensations and improve the enjoyment and consumption of protein-rich ONS.

Supporting visual assessment of food and nutrient intake in a clinical care setting

Monitoring nutritional intake is an important aspect of the care of older people, particularly for those at risk of malnutrition. Current practice for monitoring food intake relies on hand written food charts that have several inadequacies. We describe the design and validation of a tool for computer-assisted visual assessment of patient food and nutrient intake. To estimate food consumption, the application compares the pixels the user rubbed out against predefined graphical masks. Weight of food consumed is calculated as a percentage of pixels rubbed out against pixels in the mask. Results suggest that the application may be a useful tool for the conservative assessment of nutritional intake in hospitals.

Aerosol retrieval experiments in the ESA Aerosol_cci project

Within the ESA Climate Change Initiative (CCI) project Aerosol_cci (2010–2013), algorithms for the production of long-term total column aerosol optical depth (AOD) datasets from European Earth Observation sensors are developed. Starting with eight existing pre-cursor algorithms three analysis steps are conducted to improve and qualify the algorithms: (1) a series of experiments applied to one month of global data to understand several major sensitivities to assumptions needed due to the ill-posed nature of the underlying inversion problem, (2) a round robin exercise of "best" versions of each of these algorithms (defined using the step 1 outcome) applied to four months of global data to identify mature algorithms, and (3) a comprehensive validation exercise applied to one complete year of global data produced by the algorithms selected as mature based on the round robin exercise. The algorithms tested included four using AATSR, three using MERIS and one using PARASOL. This paper summarizes the first step. Three experiments were conducted to assess the potential impact of major assumptions in the various aerosol retrieval algorithms. In the first experiment a common set of four aerosol components was used to provide all algorithms with the same assumptions. The second experiment introduced an aerosol property climatology, derived from a combination of model and sun photometer observations, as a priori information in the retrievals on the occurrence of the common aerosol components. The third experiment assessed the impact of using a common nadir cloud mask for AATSR and MERIS algorithms in order to characterize the sensitivity to remaining cloud contamination in the retrievals against the baseline dataset versions. The impact of the algorithm changes was assessed for one month (September 2008) of data: qualitatively by inspection of monthly mean AOD maps and quantitatively by comparing daily gridded satellite data against daily averaged AERONET sun photometer observations for the different versions of each algorithm globally (land and coastal) and for three regions with different aerosol regimes. The analysis allowed for an assessment of sensitivities of all algorithms, which helped define the best algorithm versions for the subsequent round robin exercise; all algorithms (except for MERIS) showed some, in parts significant, improvement. In particular, using common aerosol components and partly also a priori aerosol-type climatology is beneficial. On the other hand the use of an AATSR-based common cloud mask meant a clear improvement (though with significant reduction of coverage) for the MERIS standard product, but not for the algorithms using AATSR. It is noted that all these observations are mostly consistent for all five analyses (global land, global coastal, three regional), which can be understood well, since the set of aerosol components defined in Sect. 3.1 was explicitly designed to cover different global aerosol regimes (with low and high absorption fine mode, sea salt and dust).

Efficient masking of corrosion and fission products such as Ni(II) and Pd(II) in the presence of the minor actinide Am(III) using hydrophilic anionic or cationic bis-triazines

Water soluble anionic and cationic bis-triazine ligands are able to suppress (mask) the extraction of corrosion and fission products such as Ni(II) and Pd(II) that are found in PUREX raffinates. Thus it is possible to separate these elements from the minor actinide Am(III). Although some masking agents have previously been developed that retard the extraction of Pd(II), this is the first time a masking agent has been developed for Ni(II).

Infection Control in design and construction work

Objective: To clarify how infection control requirements are represented, communicated, and understood in work interactions through the medical facility construction project life cycle. To assist project participants with effective infection control management by highlighting the nature of such requirements and presenting recommendations to aid practice. Background: A 4-year study regarding client requirement representation and use on National Health Service construction projects in the United Kingdom provided empirical evidence of infection control requirement communication and understanding through design and construction work interactions. Methods: An analysis of construction project resources (e.g., infection control regulations and room data sheets) was combined with semi-structured interviews with hospital client employees and design and construction professionals to provide valuable insights into the management of infection control issues. Results: Infection control requirements are representationally indistinct but also omnipresent through all phases of the construction project life cycle: Failure to recognize their nature, relevance, and significance can result in delays, stoppages, and redesign work. Construction project resources (e.g., regulatory guidance and room data sheets) can mask or obscure the meaning of infection control issues. Conclusions: A preemptive identification of issues combined with knowledge sharing activities among project stakeholders can enable infection control requirements to be properly understood and addressed. Such initiatives should also reference existing infection control regulatory guidance and advice.

Evaluating the climate and air quality impacts of short-lived pollutants

This paper presents a summary of the work done within the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme project ECLIPSE (Evaluating the Climate and Air Quality Impacts of Short-Lived Pollutants). ECLIPSE had a unique systematic concept for designing a realistic and effective mitigation scenario for short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs; methane, aerosols and ozone, and their precursor species) and quantifying its climate and air quality impacts, and this paper presents the results in the context of this overarching strategy. The first step in ECLIPSE was to create a new emission inventory based on current legislation (CLE) for the recent past and until 2050. Substantial progress compared to previous work was made by including previously unaccounted types of sources such as flaring of gas associated with oil production, and wick lamps. These emission data were used for present-day reference simulations with four advanced Earth system models (ESMs) and six chemistry transport models (CTMs). The model simulations were compared with a variety of ground-based and satellite observational data sets from Asia, Europe and the Arctic. It was found that the models still underestimate the measured seasonality of aerosols in the Arctic but to a lesser extent than in previous studies. Problems likely related to the emissions were identified for northern Russia and India, in particular. To estimate the climate impacts of SLCPs, ECLIPSE followed two paths of research: the first path calculated radiative forcing (RF) values for a large matrix of SLCP species emissions, for different seasons and regions independently. Based on these RF calculations, the Global Temperature change Potential metric for a time horizon of 20 years (GTP20) was calculated for each SLCP emission type. This climate metric was then used in an integrated assessment model to identify all emission mitigation measures with a beneficial air quality and short-term (20-year) climate impact. These measures together defined a SLCP mitigation (MIT) scenario. Compared to CLE, the MIT scenario would reduce global methane (CH4) and black carbon (BC) emissions by about 50 and 80 %, respectively. For CH4, measures on shale gas production, waste management and coal mines were most important. For non-CH4 SLCPs, elimination of high-emitting vehicles and wick lamps, as well as reducing emissions from gas flaring, coal and biomass stoves, agricultural waste, solvents and diesel engines were most important. These measures lead to large reductions in calculated surface concentrations of ozone and particulate matter. We estimate that in the EU, the loss of statistical life expectancy due to air pollution was 7.5 months in 2010, which will be reduced to 5.2 months by 2030 in the CLE scenario. The MIT scenario would reduce this value by another 0.9 to 4.3 months. Substantially larger reductions due to the mitigation are found for China (1.8 months) and India (11–12 months). The climate metrics cannot fully quantify the climate response. Therefore, a second research path was taken. Transient climate ensemble simulations with the four ESMs were run for the CLE and MIT scenarios, to determine the climate impacts of the mitigation. In these simulations, the CLE scenario resulted in a surface temperature increase of 0.70 ± 0.14 K between the years 2006 and 2050. For the decade 2041–2050, the warming was reduced by 0.22 ± 0.07 K in the MIT scenario, and this result was in almost exact agreement with the response calculated based on the emission metrics (reduced warming of 0.22 ± 0.09 K). The metrics calculations suggest that non-CH4 SLCPs contribute ~ 22 % to this response and CH4 78 %. This could not be fully confirmed by the transient simulations, which attributed about 90 % of the temperature response to CH4 reductions. Attribution of the observed temperature response to non-CH4 SLCP emission reductions and BC specifically is hampered in the transient simulations by small forcing and co-emitted species of the emission basket chosen. Nevertheless, an important conclusion is that our mitigation basket as a whole would lead to clear benefits for both air quality and climate. The climate response from BC reductions in our study is smaller than reported previously, possibly because our study is one of the first to use fully coupled climate models, where unforced variability and sea ice responses cause relatively strong temperature fluctuations that may counteract (and, thus, mask) the impacts of small emission reductions. The temperature responses to the mitigation were generally stronger over the continents than over the oceans, and with a warming reduction of 0.44 K (0.39–0.49) K the largest over the Arctic. Our calculations suggest particularly beneficial climate responses in southern Europe, where surface warming was reduced by about 0.3 K and precipitation rates were increased by about 15 (6–21) mm yr−1 (more than 4 % of total precipitation) from spring to autumn. Thus, the mitigation could help to alleviate expected future drought and water shortages in the Mediterranean area. We also report other important results of the ECLIPSE project.

Gueules cassées: the men behind the masks

Facially wounded soldiers of the First World War were, despite progress in plastic surgery, a particularly uncomfortable presence in war and post-war societies. Their self-perception and relationships with others are indicative of political, social, and emotional issues. Their treatment was not on a par with that of other veterans. In some instances, masks and attachments were used to cover the damaged features. They protected both the victim and the onlooker (i.e. society). This article analyses the practical and symbolic functions of masks in France and Great Britain. Drawing upon both artistic representations and historical documents, I argue that ultimately, what is perceived as an alien object is not the mask but the face behind it, and therewith the uncomfortable memory of the war itself.

Public–private partnerships in Russia: dynamics contributing to an emerging policy paradigm

Public–private partnerships (PPPs) are new in Russia and represent project implementation in progress. The government is actively pursuing PPP deployment in sectors such as transportation and urban infrastructure, and at all levels including federal, regional and especially local. Despite the lack of pertinent laws and regulations, the PPP public policy quickly transforms into a policy paradigm that provides simplified concepts and solutions and intensifies partnership development. The article delineates an emerging model of Russia’s PPP policy paradigm, whose structure includes the shared understanding of the need for long-term collaboration between the public sector and business, a changing set of government responsibilities that imply an increasing private provision of public services, and new institutional capacities. This article critically appraises the principal dynamics that contribute to an emerging PPP policy paradigm, namely the broad government treatment of the meaning of a partnership and of a contractual PPP; a liberal PPP approval process that lacks clear guidelines and consistency across regions; excessive emphasis on positive PPP externalities and neglect of drawbacks; and unjustifiably extensive government financial support to PPPs. Whilst a paradigm appears to be useful specifically for the policy purpose of PPP expansion, it may also mask inefficiencies such as higher prices of public services and greater government risks.

Datasets related to in-land water for limnology and remote sensing applications: distance-to-land, distance-to-water, water-body identifier and lake-centre co-ordinates

Datasets containing information to locate and identify water bodies have been generated from data locating static-water-bodies with resolution of about 300 m (1/360 deg) recently released by the Land Cover Climate Change Initiative (LC CCI) of the European Space Agency. The LC CCI water-bodies dataset has been obtained from multi-temporal metrics based on time series of the backscattered intensity recorded by ASAR on Envisat between 2005 and 2010. The new derived datasets provide coherently: distance to land, distance to water, water-body identifiers and lake-centre locations. The water-body identifier dataset locates the water bodies assigning the identifiers of the Global Lakes and Wetlands Database (GLWD), and lake centres are defined for in-land waters for which GLWD IDs were determined. The new datasets therefore link recent lake/reservoir/wetlands extent to the GLWD, together with a set of coordinates which locates unambiguously the water bodies in the database. Information on distance-to-land for each water cell and the distance-to-water for each land cell has many potential applications in remote sensing, where the applicability of geophysical retrieval algorithms may be affected by the presence of water or land within a satellite field of view (image pixel). During the generation and validation of the datasets some limitations of the GLWD database and of the LC CCI water-bodies mask have been found. Some examples of the inaccuracies/limitations are presented and discussed. Temporal change in water-body extent is common. Future versions of the LC CCI dataset are planned to represent temporal variation, and this will permit these derived datasets to be updated.

Evaluation of simulated sea-ice concentrations from sea-ice/ocean models using satellite data and polynya classification methods

Sea-ice concentrations in the Laptev Sea simulated by the coupled North Atlantic-Arctic Ocean-Sea-Ice Model and Finite Element Sea-Ice Ocean Model are evaluated using sea-ice concentrations from Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-Earth Observing System satellite data and a polynya classification method for winter 2007/08. While developed to simulate largescale sea-ice conditions, both models are analysed here in terms of polynya simulation. The main modification of both models in this study is the implementation of a landfast-ice mask. Simulated sea-ice fields from different model runs are compared with emphasis placed on the impact of this prescribed landfast-ice mask. We demonstrate that sea-ice models are not able to simulate flaw polynyas realistically when used without fast-ice description. Our investigations indicate that without landfast ice and with coarse horizontal resolution the models overestimate the fraction of open water in the polynya. This is not because a realistic polynya appears but due to a larger-scale reduction of ice concentrations and smoothed ice-concentration fields. After implementation of a landfast-ice mask, the polynya location is realistically simulated but the total open-water area is still overestimated in most cases. The study shows that the fast-ice parameterization is essential for model improvements. However, further improvements are necessary in order to progress from the simulation of large-scale features in the Arctic towards a more detailed simulation of smaller-scaled features (here polynyas) in an Arctic shelf sea.

On the detection and attribution of gravity waves generated by the 20 March 2015 solar eclipse

Internal gravity waves are generated as adjustment radiation whenever a sudden change in forcing causes the atmosphere to depart from its large-scale balanced state. Such a forcing anomaly occurs during a solar eclipse, when the Moon’s shadow cools part of the Earth’s surface. The resulting atmospheric gravity waves are associated with pressure and temperature perturbations, which in principle are detectable both at the surface and aloft. In this study, surface pressure and temperature data from two UK sites at Reading and Lerwick are analysed for eclipse-driven gravity-wave perturbations during the 20 March 2015 solar eclipse over north-west Europe. Radiosonde wind data from the same two sites are also analysed using a moving parcel analysis method, to determine the periodicities of the waves aloft. On this occasion, the perturbations both at the surface and aloft are found not to be confidently attributable to eclipse-driven gravity waves. We conclude that the complex synoptic weather conditions over the UK at the time of this particular eclipse helped to mask any eclipse-driven gravity waves.