Seasonality and extent of extratropical TST derived from in-situ CO measurements during SPURT

We present airborne in-situ trace gas measurements which were performed on eight campaigns between November 2001 and July 2003 during the SPURT-project (SPURenstofftransport in der Tropopausenregion, trace gas transport in the tropopause region). The measurements on a quasi regular basis allowed an overview of the seasonal variations of the trace gas distribution in the tropopause region over Europe from 35°-75°N to investigate the influence of transport and mixing across the extratropical tropopause on the lowermost stratosphere. From the correlation of CO and O3 irreversible mixing of tropospheric air into the lowermost stratosphere is identified. The CO distribution indicates that transport and subsequent mixing of tropospheric air across the extratropical tropopause predominantly affects a layer, which closely follows the shape of the local tropopause. In addition, the seasonal cycle of CO2 illustrates the strong coupling of that layer to the extratropical troposphere. Both, horizontal gradients of CO on isentropes as well as the CO-O3-distribution in the lowermost stratosphere reveal that the influence of quasi-horizontal transport and subsequent mixing weakens with distance from the local tropopause. The mixing layer extends to about 25 K in potential temperature above the local tropopause exhibiting only a weak seasonality. However, at large distances from the tropopause a significant influence of tropospheric air is still evident. The relation between N2O and CO2 indicates that a significant contribution of air originating from the tropical tropopause contributes to the background air in the extratropical lowermost stratosphere.

Multi-site evaluation of an urban land-surface model: intra-urban heterogeneity, seasonality and parameter complexity requirements

An extensive off-line evaluation of the Noah/Single Layer Urban Canopy Model (Noah/SLUCM) urban land-surface model is presented using data from 15 sites to assess (1) the ability of the scheme to reproduce the surface energy balance observed in a range of urban environments, including seasonal changes, and (2) the impact of increasing complexity of input parameter information. Model performance is found to be most dependent on representation of vegetated surface area cover; refinement of other parameter values leads to smaller improvements. Model biases in net all-wave radiation and trade-offs between turbulent heat fluxes are highlighted using an optimization algorithm. Here we use the Urban Zones to characterize Energy partitioning (UZE) as the basis to assign default SLUCM parameter values. A methodology (FRAISE) to assign sites (or areas) to one of these categories based on surface characteristics is evaluated. Using three urban sites from the Basel Urban Boundary Layer Experiment (BUBBLE) dataset, an independent evaluation of the model performance with the parameter values representative of each class is performed. The scheme copes well with both seasonal changes in the surface characteristics and intra-urban heterogeneities in energy flux partitioning, with RMSE performance comparable to similar state-of-the-art models for all fluxes, sites and seasons. The potential of the methodology for high-resolution atmospheric modelling application using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is highlighted. This analysis supports the recommendations that (1) three classes are appropriate to characterize the urban environment, and (2) that the parameter values identified should be adopted as default values in WRF.

Local-scale urban meteorological parameterization scheme (LUMPS): longwave radiation parameterization and seasonality-related developments

Recent developments to the Local-scale Urban Meteorological Parameterization Scheme (LUMPS), a simple model able to simulate the urban energy balance, are presented. The major development is the coupling of LUMPS to the Net All-Wave Radiation Parameterization (NARP). Other enhancements include that the model now accounts for the changing availability of water at the surface, seasonal variations of active vegetation, and the anthropogenic heat flux, while maintaining the need for only commonly available meteorological observations and basic surface characteristics. The incoming component of the longwave radiation (L↓) in NARP is improved through a simple relation derived using cloud cover observations from a ceilometer collected in central London, England. The new L↓ formulation is evaluated with two independent multiyear datasets (Łódź, Poland, and Baltimore, Maryland) and compared with alternatives that include the original NARP and a simpler one using the National Climatic Data Center cloud observation database as input. The performance for the surface energy balance fluxes is assessed using a 2-yr dataset (Łódź). Results have an overall RMSE < 34 W m−2 for all surface energy balance fluxes over the 2-yr period when

Mid-Holocene climates of the Americas: a dynamical response to changed seasonality

Simulations of the climatic response to mid-Holocene (6 ka BP) orbital forcing with two coupled ocean–atmosphere models (FOAM and CSM) show enhancement of monsoonal precipitation in parts of the American Southwest, Central America and northernmost South America during Northern Hemisphere summer. The enhanced onshore flow that brings precipitation into Central America is caused by a northward displacement of the inter-tropical convergence zone, driven by cooling of the equatorial and warming of the northern subtropical and mid-latitude ocean. Ocean feedbacks also enhance precipitation over the American Southwest, although the increase in monsoon precipitation there is largely driven by increases in land-surface temperature. The northward shift in the equatorial precipitation band that causes enhanced precipitation in Central America and the American Southwest has a negative feedback effect on monsoonal precipitation in northern South America. The simulations demonstrate that mid-Holocene aridity in the mid-continent of North America is dynamically linked to the orbitally induced enhancement of the summer monsoon in the American Southwest, with a spatial structure (wet in the Southwest and dry in the mid-continent) similar to that found in strong monsoon years today. Changes in winter precipitation along the west coast of North America, in Central America and along the Gulf Coast, caused by southward-displacement of the westerly storm tracks, indicate that changes in the Northern Hemisphere winter monsoon also play a role in regional climate changes during the mid-Holocene. Although the simulations with FOAM and CSM differ in detail, the general mechanisms and patterns are common to both. The model results thus provide a coherent dynamical explanation for regional patterns of increased or decreased aridity shown by vegetation, lake status and aeolian data from the Americas

Seasonality in Southeast Asian stock markets: some new evidence on day-of-the-week effects

This paper examines the evidence for a day-of-the-week effect in five Southeast Asian stock markets: South Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan and Thailand. Findings indicate significant seasonality for three of the five markets. Market risk, proxied by the return on the FTA World Price Index, is not sufficient to explain this calendar anomaly. Although an extension of the risk-return equation to incorporate interactive seasonal dummy variables can explain some significant day-of-the-week effects, market risk alone appears insufficient to characterize this phenomenon.

Temporality, cultural biography and seasonality: rethinking time in wetland archaeology

Wetland archaeology is uniquely well placed to investigate questions of chronology, temporality, life-cycles and seasonality. Beyond the usual archaeological approaches to time (eg seriation, typology and stratigraphy), most wetland archaeological investigations have access to a ready supply of samples (ie wood, peat and organic deposits) for absolute scientific dating, particularly radiocarbon and dendrochronology. Indeed, the success of dendrochronology in revealing dynamic sequences of site and regional occupation, use and abandonment are well known. Investigating wetland archaeological sites, environmental archaeologists have used the evidence of insects' plant remains, seeds and even testate amoeba to establish the season, or months, of a site's occupation. Soil micromorphologists have carried out innovative studies of settlement deposits to reconstruct the chronological sequences of processes and events leading to their formation. In brief, wetland archaeology has become adept at calibrating past times.

Seasonality of submesoscale flows in the ocean surface boundary layer

A signature of submesoscale flows in the upper ocean is skewness in the distribution of relative vorticity. Expected to result for high Rossby-number flows, such skewness has implications for mixing, dissipation and stratification within the upper ocean. An array of moorings deployed in the Northeast Atlantic for one year as part of the OSMOSIS experiment reveals that relative vorticity is positively skewed during winter even though the scale of the Rossby number is less than 0.5. Furthermore, this skewness is reduced to zero during spring and autumn. There is also evidence of modest seasonal variations in the gradient Rossby number. The proposed mechanism by which relative vorticity is skewed is that the ratio of lateral to vertical buoyancy gradients, as summarized by the inverse gradient Richardson number, restricts its range during winter but less so at other times of the year. These results support recent observations and model simulations suggesting the upper ocean is host to a seasonal cycle in submesoscale turbulence.

Seasonality of westerly moisture transport in the East Asian summer monsoon and its implications for interpreting precipitation δ18O

East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) rainfall impacts the world's most populous regions. Accurate EASM rainfall prediction necessitates robust paleoclimate reconstructions from proxy data and quantitative linkage to modern climatic conditions. Many precisely dated oxygen isotope records from Chinese stalagmites have been interpreted as directly reflecting past EASM rainfall amount variability, but recent research suggests that such records instead integrate multiple hydroclimatic processes. Using a Lagrangian precipitation moisture source diagnostic, we demonstrate that EASM rainfall is primarily derived from the Indian Ocean. Conversely, Pacific Ocean moisture export peaks during winter, and the moisture uptake area does not differ significantly between summer and winter and is thus a minor contributor to monsoonal precipitation. Our results are substantiated by an accurate reproduction of summer and winter spatial rainfall distributions across China. We also correlate modern EASM rainfall oxygen isotope ratios with instrumental rainfall amount and our moisture source data. This analysis reveals that the strength of the source effect is geographically variable, and differences in atmospheric moisture transport may significantly impact the isotopic signature of EASM rainfall at the Hulu, Dongge, and Wanxiang Cave sites. These results improve our ability to isolate the rainfall amount signal in paleomonsoon reconstructions and indicate that precipitation across central and eastern China will directly respond to variability in Indian Ocean moisture supply.

Seasonal deposition of Holocene banded sediments in the Severn Estuary Levels (southwest Britain): palynological and sedimentological evidence

Banded sediments outcrop widely in the intertidal zone of the Severn Estuary and have been suggested, on the basis of textural analysis, to have formed in response to seasonal variations in sea temperature and windiness (Holocene, 14 (2004) 536). Here palynological and sedimentological analyses of banded sediments of mid-Holocene date from Gold Cliff, on the Welsh side of the Severn Estuary, are combined to test and further develop the hypothesis of seasonal deposition. Pollen percentage and concentration data are presented from a short sequence of bands to establish whether textural variations in the bands coincide with variations in pollen content reflecting seasonal flowering patterns. It is shown that fine-grained band parts contain higher total pollen concentrations, and a higher proportion of pollen from late spring- to summer-flowering plants, than coarse-grained band parts. Pollen in the coarser deposits appears primarily to reflect deposition from the buffering `reservoir' of suspended pollen in the estuarine water-body and from rivers, when there is little pollen in the air in winter, while the finer sediments contain pollen deposited from the atmosphere during the flowering season, superimposed on these `background' sources. The potential of such deposits for refining chronologies and identifying seasonality of coastal processes is noted, and the results of charcoal particle analysis of the bands presented as an example of how they have the potential to shed light on seasonal and annual patterns of human activity. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Magnitude of climate variability during middle Pliocene warmth: a palaeoclimate modelling study

The nature and magnitude of climatic variability during the period of middle Pliocene warmth (ca 3.29–2.97 Ma) is poorly understood. We present a suite of palaeoclimate modelling experiments incorporating an advanced atmospheric general circulation model (GCM), coupled to a Q-flux ocean model for 3.29, 3.12 and 2.97 Ma BP. Astronomical solutions for the periods in question were derived from the Berger and Loutre BL2 astronomical solution. Boundary conditions, excluding sea surface temperatures (SSTs) which were predicted by the slab-ocean model, were provided from the USGS PRISM2 2°×2° digital data set. The model results indicate that little annual variation (0.5°C) in SSTs, relative to a ‘control’ experiment, occurred during the middle Pliocene in response to the altered orbital configurations. Annual surface air temperatures also displayed little variation. Seasonally, surface air temperatures displayed a trend of cooler temperatures during December, January and February, and warmer temperatures during June, July and August. This pattern is consistent with altered seasonality resulting from the prescribed orbital configurations. Precipitation changes follow the seasonal trend observed for surface air temperature. Compared to present-day, surface wind strength and wind stress over the North Atlantic, North Pacific and Southern Ocean remained greater in each of the Pliocene experiments. This suggests that wind-driven gyral circulation may have been consistently greater during the middle Pliocene. The trend of climatic variability predicted by the GCM for the middle Pliocene accords with geological data. However, it is unclear if the model correctly simulates the magnitude of the variation. This uncertainty is derived from, (a) the relative insensitivity of the GCM to perturbation in the imposed boundary conditions, (b) a lack of detailed time series data concerning changes to terrestrial ice cover and greenhouse gas concentrations for the middle Pliocene and (c) difficulties in representing the effects of ‘climatic history’ in snap-shot GCM experiments.

Recent habitat degradation in karstic Lake Uluabat, western Turkey: A coupled limnological-palaeolimnological approach

The Ramsar site of Lake Uluabat, western Turkey, suffers from eutrophication, urban and industrial pollution and water abstraction, and its water levels are managed artificially. Here we combine monitoring and palaeolimnological. techniques to investigate spatial and temporal limnological variability and ecosystem impact, using an ostracod and mollusc survey to strengthen interpretation of the fossil record. A combination of low invertebrate Biological Monitoring Working Party scores (<10) and the dominance of eutrophic diatoms in the modern lake confirms its poor ecological status. Palaeolimnological analysis of recent (last >200 yr) changes in organic and carbonate content, diatoms, stable isotopes, ostracods and molluscs in a lake sediment core (UL20A) indicates a 20th century trend towards increased sediment accumulation rates and eutrophication which was probably initiated by deforestation and agriculture. The most marked ecological shift occurs in the early 1960s, however. A subtle rise in diatom-inferred total phosphorus and an inferred reduction in submerged aquatic macrophyte cover accompanies a major increase in sediment accumulation rate. An associated marked shift in ostracod stable isotope data indicative of reduced seasonality and a change in hydrological input suggests major impact from artificial water management practices, all of which appears to have culminated in the sustained loss of submerged macrophytes since 2000. The study indicates it is vital to take both land-use and water management practices into account in devising restoration strategies. in a wider context, the results have important implications for the conservation of shallow karstic lakes, the functioning of which is still poorly understood. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Rapid characterisation of archaeological midden components using FT-IR spectroscopy, SEM-EDX and micro-XRD

Samples taken from middens at the Neolithic site of Catalhoyuk in Turkey have been analysed using IR spectroscopy backed up by powder XRD and SEM-EDX. Microcomponents studied include fossil hack-berries (providing evidence of ancient diet and seasonality), mineral nodules (providing evidence of post-depositional change) and phytoliths (mineralised plant cells, providing evidence of usage of plant species). Finely laminated ashy deposits have also been investigated allowing chemical and mineralogical variations to be explored. It is found that many layers which appear visually to be quite distinctive have, in fact, very similar mineralogy. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modelling seasonally varying data: A case study for sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS)

Many time series are measured monthly, either as averages or totals, and such data often exhibit seasonal variability-the values of the series are consistently larger for some months of the year than for others. A typical series of this type is the number of deaths each month attributed to SIDS (Sudden Infant Death Syndrome). Seasonality can be modelled in a number of ways. This paper describes and discusses various methods for modelling seasonality in SIDS data, though much of the discussion is relevant to other seasonally varying data. There are two main approaches, either fitting a circular probability distribution to the data, or using regression-based techniques to model the mean seasonal behaviour. Both are discussed in this paper.

Longevity, early emergence and body size in a pollinating fig wasp - implications for stability in a fig-pollinator mutualism

1. Fig trees (Ficus) are pollinated only by agaonid wasps, whose larvae also gall fig ovules. Each ovule develops into either a seed (when pollinated) or a wasp (when an egg is also laid inside) but not both. 2. Ovipositing wasps (foundresses) favour ovules near the centre of the enclosed inflorescence (syconium or 'fig'), leaving ovules near the outer wall to develop into seeds. This spatial stratification of wasps and seeds ensures reproduction in both partners, and thereby enables mutualism persistence. However, the mechanism(s) responsible remain(s) unknown. 3. Theory shows that foundresses will search for increasingly rare inner ovules and ignore outer ovules, as long as ovipositing in outer ovules is sufficiently slow and/or if inner ovules confer greater fitness to wasps. The fig-pollinator mutualism can therefore be stabilized by strong time constraints on foundresses and by offspring fitness gradients over variation in ovule position. 4. Female fig wasps cannot leave their galls without male assistance. We found that females in outer ovules were unlikely to be released. Inner ovules thus have added value to foundresses, because their female offspring are more likely to mate and disperse. 5. For those offspring that did emerge, gall position (inner/outer) and body size did not influence the order in which female pollinators exited syconia, nor did early emerging wasps enjoy increased life spans. 6. We also found that the life spans of female wasps nearly doubled when given access to moisture. We suggest that conflict resolution in the fig-pollinator mutualism may thus be influenced by tropical seasonality, because wasps may be less able to over-exploit ovules in dry periods due to time constraints.

The development of ISSR-derived SCAR markers around the Seasonal Flowering Locus (SFL) in fragaria vesca

Fragaria vesca is a short-lived perennial with a seasonal-flowering habit. Seasonality of flowering is widespread in the Rosaceae and is also found in the majority of temperate polycarpic perennials. Genetic analysis has shown that seasonal flowering is controlled by a single gene in F. vesca, the SEASONAL FLOWERING LOCUS (SFL). Here, we report progress towards the marker-assisted selection and positional cloning of SFL, in which three ISSR markers linked to SFL were converted to locus-specific sequence-characterized amplified region (SCAR1–SCAR3) markers to allow large-scale screening of mapping progenies. We believe this is the first study describing the development of SCAR markers from ISSR profiles. The work also provides useful insight into the nature of polymorphisms generated by the ISSR marker system. Our results indicate that the ISSR polymorphisms originally detected were probably caused by point mutations in the positions targeted by primer anchors (causing differential PCR failure), by indels within the amplicon (leading to variation in amplicon size) and by internal sequence differences (leading to variation in DNA folding and so in band mobility). The cause of the original ISSR polymorphism was important in the selection of appropriate strategies for SCAR-marker development. The SCAR markers produced were mapped using a F. vesca f. vesca × F. vesca f. semperflorens testcross population. Marker SCAR2 was inseparable from the SFL, whereas SCAR1 mapped 3.0 cM to the north of the gene and SCAR3 1.7 cM to its south.