Further investigation of the impact of idealised continents and SST distributions on the Northern Hemisphere storm tracks

Building on studies by Brayshaw et al. (2009, 2011) of the basic ingredients of the North Atlantic storm track (land-sea contrast, orography and SST), this article investigates the impact of Eurasian topography and Pacific SST anomalies on the North Pacific and Atlantic storm tracks through a hierarchy of atmospheric GCM simulations using idealised boundary conditions in the HadGAM1 model. The Himalaya-Tibet mountain complex is found to play a crucial role in shaping the North Pacific storm track. The northward deflection of the westerly flow around northern Tibet generates an extensive pool of very cold air in the north-eastern tip of the Asian continent, which strengthens the meridional temperature gradient and favours baroclinic growth in the western Pacific. The Kuroshio SST front is also instrumental in strengthening the Pacific storm track through its impact on near-surface baroclinicity, while the warm waters around Indonesia tend to weaken it through the impact on baroclinicity of stationary Rossby waves propagating poleward from the convective heating regions. Three mechanisms by which the Atlantic storm track may be affected by changes in the boundary conditions upstream of the Rockies are discussed. In the model configuration used here, stationary Rossby waves emanating from Tibet appear to weaken the North Atlantic storm track substantially, whereas those generated over the cold waters off Peru appear to strengthen it. Changes in eddy-driven surface winds over the Pacific generally appear to modify the flow over the Rocky Mountains, leading to consistent modifications in the Atlantic storm track. The evidence for each of these mechanisms is, however, ultimately equivocal in these simulations.

Climate variability in the southwest Pacific during the Last Termination (20-10 kyr BP)

The degree to which palaeoclimatic changes in the Southern Hemisphere co-varied with events in the high latitude Northern Hemisphere during the Last Termination is a contentious issue, with conflicting evidence for the degree of ‘teleconnection’ between different regions of the Southern Hemisphere. The available hypotheses are difficult to test robustly, however, because there are few detailed palaeoclimatic records in the Southern Hemisphere. Here we present climatic reconstructions from the southwestern Pacific, a key region in the Southern Hemisphere because of the potentially important role it plays in global climate change. The reconstructions for the period 20–10 kyr BP were obtained from five sites along a transect from southern New Zealand, through Australia to Indonesia, supported by 125 calibrated 14C ages. Two periods of significant climatic change can be identified across the region at around 17 and 14.2 cal kyr BP, most probably associated with the onset of warming in the West Pacific Warm Pool and the collapse of Antarctic ice during Meltwater Pulse-1A, respectively. The severe geochronological constraints that inherently afflict age models based on radiocarbon dating and the lack of quantified climatic parameters make more detailed interpretations problematic, however. There is an urgent need to address the geochronological limitations, and to develop more precise and quantified estimates of the pronounced climate variations that clearly affected this region during the Last Termination.

Development of convection along the SPCZ within a Madden-Julian oscillation

A subtropical Rossby-wave propagation mechanism is proposed to account for the poleward and eastward progression of intraseasonal convective anomalies along the South Pacific convergence zone (SPCZ) that is observed in a significant proportion of Madden–Julian oscillations (MJOs). Large-scale convection, associated with an MJO, is assumed to be already established over the Indonesian region. The latent heating associated with this convection forces an equatorial Rossby-wave response with an upper-tropospheric anticyclone centred over, or slightly to the west of, the convection. Large potential-vorticity (PV) gradients, associated with the subtropical jet and the tropopause, lie just poleward of the anticyclone, and large magnitude PV air is advected equatorwards on the eastern side of the anticyclone. This ‘high’ PV air, or upper-tropospheric trough, is far enough off the equator that it has associated strong horizontal temperature gradients, and it induces deep ascent on its eastern side, at a latitude of about 15–30°. If this deep ascent is over a region susceptible to deep convection, such as the SPCZ, then convection may be forced or triggered. Hence convection develops along the SPCZ as a forced response to convection over Indonesia. The response mechanism is essentially one of subtropical Rossby-wave propagation. This hypothesis is based on a case study of a particularly strong MJO in early 1988, and is tested by idealized modelling studies. The mechanism may also be relevant to the existence of the mean SPCZ, as a forced response to mean Indonesian convection.

Tropical climates at the Last Glacial Maximum: a new synthesis of terrestrial palaeoclimate data. I. Vegetation, lake-levels and geochemistry.

Palaeodata in synthesis form are needed as benchmarks for the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP). Advances since the last synthesis of terrestrial palaeodata from the last glacial maximum (LGM) call for a new evaluation, especially of data from the tropics. Here pollen, plant-macrofossil, lake-level, noble gas (from groundwater) and δ18O (from speleothems) data are compiled for 18±2 ka (14C), 32 °N–33 °S. The reliability of the data was evaluated using explicit criteria and some types of data were re-analysed using consistent methods in order to derive a set of mutually consistent palaeoclimate estimates of mean temperature of the coldest month (MTCO), mean annual temperature (MAT), plant available moisture (PAM) and runoff (P-E). Cold-month temperature (MAT) anomalies from plant data range from −1 to −2 K near sea level in Indonesia and the S Pacific, through −6 to −8 K at many high-elevation sites to −8 to −15 K in S China and the SE USA. MAT anomalies from groundwater or speleothems seem more uniform (−4 to −6 K), but the data are as yet sparse; a clear divergence between MAT and cold-month estimates from the same region is seen only in the SE USA, where cold-air advection is expected to have enhanced cooling in winter. Regression of all cold-month anomalies against site elevation yielded an estimated average cooling of −2.5 to −3 K at modern sea level, increasing to ≈−6 K by 3000 m. However, Neotropical sites showed larger than the average sea-level cooling (−5 to −6 K) and a non-significant elevation effect, whereas W and S Pacific sites showed much less sea-level cooling (−1 K) and a stronger elevation effect. These findings support the inference that tropical sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) were lower than the CLIMAP estimates, but they limit the plausible average tropical sea-surface cooling, and they support the existence of CLIMAP-like geographic patterns in SST anomalies. Trends of PAM and lake levels indicate wet LGM conditions in the W USA, and at the highest elevations, with generally dry conditions elsewhere. These results suggest a colder-than-present ocean surface producing a weaker hydrological cycle, more arid continents, and arguably steeper-than-present terrestrial lapse rates. Such linkages are supported by recent observations on freezing-level height and tropical SSTs; moreover, simulations of “greenhouse” and LGM climates point to several possible feedback processes by which low-level temperature anomalies might be amplified aloft.

Changes in fire regimes since the Last Glacial Maximum: an assessment based on a global synthesis and analysis of charcoal data

Fire activity has varied globally and continuously since the last glacial maximum (LGM) in response to long-term changes in global climate and shorter-term regional changes in climate, vegetation, and human land use. We have synthesized sedimentary charcoal records of biomass burning since the LGM and present global maps showing changes in fire activity for time slices during the past 21,000 years (as differences in charcoal accumulation values compared to pre-industrial). There is strong broad-scale coherence in fire activity after the LGM, but spatial heterogeneity in the signals increases thereafter. In North America, Europe and southern South America, charcoal records indicate less-than-present fire activity during the deglacial period, from 21,000 to ∼11,000 cal yr BP. In contrast, the tropical latitudes of South America and Africa show greater-than-present fire activity from ∼19,000 to ∼17,000 cal yr BP and most sites from Indochina and Australia show greater-than-present fire activity from 16,000 to ∼13,000 cal yr BP. Many sites indicate greater-than-present or near-present activity during the Holocene with the exception of eastern North America and eastern Asia from 8,000 to ∼3,000 cal yr BP, Indonesia and Australia from 11,000 to 4,000 cal yr BP, and southern South America from 6,000 to 3,000 cal yr BP where fire activity was less than present. Regional coherence in the patterns of change in fire activity was evident throughout the post-glacial period. These complex patterns can largely be explained in terms of large-scale climate controls modulated by local changes in vegetation and fuel load