Stochastic volatility jump-diffusions for European equity index dynamics

Major research on equity index dynamics has investigated only US indices (usually the S&P 500) and has provided contradictory results. In this paper a clarification and extension of that previous research is given. We find that European equity indices have quite different dynamics from the S&P 500. Each of the European indices considered may be satisfactorily modelled using either an affine model with price and volatility jumps or a GARCH volatility process without jumps. The S&P 500 dynamics are much more difficult to capture in a jump-diffusion framework.

Radiative efficiencies for fluorinated esters: indirect global warming potentials of hydrofluoroethers

Density Functional Theory (DFT) has been used with an empirically-derived correction for the wavenumbers of vibrational band positions to predict the infrared spectra of several fluorinated esters (FESs). Radiative efficiencies (REs) were then determined using the method of Pinnock et al. and these were used with atmospheric lifetimes from the literature to determine the direct global warming potentials of FESs. FESs, in particular fluoroalkylacetates, alkylfluoroacetates and fluoroalkylformates, are potential greenhouse gases and their likely long atmospheric lifetimes and relatively large REs, compared to their parent HFEs, make them active contributors to global warming. Here, we use the concept of indirect global warming potential (indirect GWP) to assess the contribution to the warming of several commonly used HFEs emitted from the Earth's surface, explicitly taking into account that these HFEs will be converted into the corresponding FESs in the troposphere. The indirect GWP can be calculated using the radiative efficiencies and lifetimes of the HFE and its degradation FES products. We found that the GWPs of those studied HFEs which have the smallest direct GWP can be increased by 100-1600% when taking account of the cumulative effect due to the secondary FESs formed during HFE atmospheric oxidation. This effect may be particularly important for non-segregated HFEs and some segregated HFEs, which may contribute significantly more to global warming than can be concluded from examination of their direct GWPs.

Can Rachman’s indirect pathways be used to un-learn fear? A prospective paradigm to test whether children’s fears can be reduced using positive information and modelling a non-anxious response

This study investigated whether children’s fears could be un-learned using Rachman’s indirect pathways for learning fear. We hypothesised that positive information and modelling a non-anxious response are effective methods of un-learning fears acquired through verbal information. One hundred and seven children aged 6–8 years received negative information about one animal and no information about another. Fear beliefs and behavioural avoidance were measured. Children were randomised to receive positive verbal information, modelling, or a control task. Fear beliefs and behavioural avoidance were measured again. Positive information and modelling led to lower fear beliefs and behavioural avoidance than the control condition. Positive information was more effective than modelling in reducing fear beliefs and both methods significantly reduced behavioural avoidance. The results support Rachman’s indirect pathways as viable fear un-learning pathways and supports associative learning theories.

Spectral analysis of diffusions with jump boundary

In this paper we consider one-dimensional diffusions with constant coefficients in a finite interval with jump boundary and a certain deterministic jump distribution. We use coupling methods in order to identify the spectral gap in the case of a large drift and prove that there is a threshold drift above which the bottom of the spectrum no longer depends on the drift. As a corollary to our result we are able to answer two questions concerning elliptic eigenvalue problems with non-local boundary conditions formulated previously by Iddo Ben-Ari and Ross Pinsky.

On the spectral gap of Brownian motion with jump boundary

In this paper we consider the Brownian motion with jump boundary and present a new proof of a recent result of Li, Leung and Rakesh concerning the exact convergence rate in the one-dimensional case. Our methods are dierent and mainly probabilistic relying on coupling methods adapted to the special situation under investigation. Moreover we answer a question raised by Ben-Ari and Pinsky concerning the dependence of the spectral gap from the jump distribution in a multi-dimensional setting.

Numerical study of a M-cycle cross-flow heat exchanger for indirect evaporative cooling

In this paper, numerical analyses of the thermal performance of an indirect evaporative air cooler incorporating a M-cycle cross-flow heat exchanger has been carried out. The numerical model was established from solving the coupled governing equations for heat and mass transfer between the product and working air, using the finite-element method. The model was developed using the EES (Engineering Equation Solver) environment and validated by published experimental data. Correlation between the cooling (wet-bulb) effectiveness, system COP and a number of air flow/exchanger parameters was developed. It is found that lower channel air velocity, lower inlet air relative humidity, and higher working-to-product air ratio yielded higher cooling effectiveness. The recommended average air velocities in dry and wet channels should not be greater than 1.77 m/s and 0.7 m/s, respectively. The optimum flow ratio of working-to-product air for this cooler is 50%. The channel geometric sizes, i.e. channel length and height, also impose significant impact to system performance. Longer channel length and smaller channel height contribute to increase of the system cooling effectiveness but lead to reduced system COP. The recommend channel height is 4 mm and the dimensionless channel length, i.e., ratio of the channel length to height, should be in the range 100 to 300. Numerical study results indicated that this new type of M-cycle heat and mass exchanger can achieve 16.7% higher cooling effectiveness compared with the conventional cross-flow heat and mass exchanger for the indirect evaporative cooler. The model of this kind is new and not yet reported in literatures. The results of the study help with design and performance analyses of such a new type of indirect evaporative air cooler, and in further, help increasing market rating of the technology within building air conditioning sector, which is currently dominated by the conventional compression refrigeration technology.

Comparative study of the performance of the M-cycle counter-flow and cross-flow heat exchangers for indirect evaporative cooling - paving the path towards sustainable cooling of buildings

This paper provides a comparative study of the performance of cross-flow and counter-flow M-cycle heat exchangers for dew point cooling. It is recognised that evaporative cooling systems offer a low energy alternative to conventional air conditioning units. Recently emerged dew point cooling, as the renovated evaporative cooling configuration, is claimed to have much higher cooling output over the conventional evaporative modes owing to use of the M-cycle heat exchangers. Cross-flow and counter-flow heat exchangers, as the available structures for M-cycle dew point cooling processing, were theoretically and experimentally investigated to identify the difference in cooling effectiveness of both under the parallel structural/operational conditions, optimise the geometrical sizes of the exchangers and suggest their favourite operational conditions. Through development of a dedicated computer model and case-by-case experimental testing and validation, a parametric study of the cooling performance of the counter-flow and cross-flow heat exchangers was carried out. The results showed the counter-flow exchanger offered greater (around 20% higher) cooling capacity, as well as greater (15%–23% higher) dew-point and wet-bulb effectiveness when equal in physical size and under the same operating conditions. The cross-flow system, however, had a greater (10% higher) Energy Efficiency (COP). As the increased cooling effectiveness will lead to reduced air volume flow rate, smaller system size and lower cost, whilst the size and cost are the inherent barriers for use of dew point cooling as the alternation of the conventional cooling systems, the counter-flow system is considered to offer practical advantages over the cross-flow system that would aid the uptake of this low energy cooling alternative. In line with increased global demand for energy in cooling of building, largely by economic booming of emerging developing nations and recognised global warming, the research results will be of significant importance in terms of promoting deployment of the low energy dew point cooling system, helping reduction of energy use in cooling of buildings and cut of the associated carbon emission.

Decay to equilibrium for jump processes with heavy tails

The case is made for a more careful analysis of the large time asymptotic of infinite particle systems in the thermodynamic limit beyond zero density. The insufficiency of current analysis even in the model case of free particles is demonstrated. Recent advances based on more sophisticated analytical tools like functions of mean variation and Hardy spaces are sketched.

Satellite-based estimate of the direct and indirect aerosol climate forcing

The main uncertainty in anthropogenic forcing of the Earth’s climate stems from pollution aerosols, particularly their ‘‘indirect effect’’ whereby aerosols modify cloud properties. We develop a new methodology to derive a measurement-based estimate using almost exclusively information from an Earth radiation budget instrument (CERES) and a radiometer (MODIS). We derive a statistical relationship between planetary albedo and cloud properties, and, further, between the cloud properties and column aerosol concentration. Combining these relationships with a data set of satellite-derived anthropogenic aerosol fraction, we estimate an anthropogenic radiative forcing of �-0.9 ± 0.4 Wm�-2 for the aerosol direct effect and of �-0.2 ± 0.1 Wm�-2 for the cloud albedo effect. Because of uncertainties in both satellite data and the method, the uncertainty of this result is likely larger than the values given here which correspond only to the quantifiable error estimates. The results nevertheless indicate that current global climate models may overestimate the cloud albedo effect.

Aerosol indirect effects – general circulation model intercomparison and evaluation with satellite data

Aerosol indirect effects continue to constitute one of the most important uncertainties for anthropogenic climate perturbations. Within the international AEROCOM initiative, the representation of aerosol-cloud-radiation interactions in ten different general circulation models (GCMs) is evaluated using three satellite datasets. The focus is on stratiform liquid water clouds since most GCMs do not include ice nucleation effects, and none of the model explicitly parameterises aerosol effects on convective clouds. We compute statistical relationships between aerosol optical depth (τa) and various cloud and radiation quantities in a manner that is consistent between the models and the satellite data. It is found that the model-simulated influence of aerosols on cloud droplet number concentration (Nd ) compares relatively well to the satellite data at least over the ocean. The relationship between �a and liquid water path is simulated much too strongly by the models. This suggests that the implementation of the second aerosol indirect effect mainly in terms of an autoconversion parameterisation has to be revisited in the GCMs. A positive relationship between total cloud fraction (fcld) and �a as found in the satellite data is simulated by the majority of the models, albeit less strongly than that in the satellite data in most of them. In a discussion of the hypotheses proposed in the literature to explain the satellite-derived strong fcld–�a relationship, our results indicate that none can be identified as a unique explanation. Relationships similar to the ones found in satellite data between �a and cloud top temperature or outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) are simulated by only a few GCMs. The GCMs that simulate a negative OLR - �a relationship show a strong positive correlation between �a and fcld. The short-wave total aerosol radiative forcing as simulated by the GCMs is strongly influenced by the simulated anthropogenic fraction of �a, and parameterisation assumptions such as a lower bound on Nd . Nevertheless, the strengths of the statistical relationships are good predictors for the aerosol forcings in the models. An estimate of the total short-wave aerosol forcing inferred from the combination of these predictors for the modelled forcings with the satellite-derived statistical relationships yields a global annual mean value of −1.5±0.5Wm−2. In an alternative approach, the radiative flux perturbation due to anthropogenic aerosols can be broken down into a component over the cloud-free portion of the globe (approximately the aerosol direct effect) and a component over the cloudy portion of the globe (approximately the aerosol indirect effect). An estimate obtained by scaling these simulated clearand cloudy-sky forcings with estimates of anthropogenic �a and satellite-retrieved Nd–�a regression slopes, respectively, yields a global, annual-mean aerosol direct effect estimate of −0.4±0.2Wm−2 and a cloudy-sky (aerosol indirect effect) estimate of −0.7±0.5Wm−2, with a total estimate of −1.2±0.4Wm−2.