Ecosystem services and food production

By 2030, the world’s human population could rise to 8 billion people and world food demand may increase by 50%. Although food production outpaced population growth in the 20th century, it is clear that the environmental costs of these increases cannot be sustained into the future. This challenges us to re-think the way we produce food. We argue that viewing food production systems within an ecosystems context provides the basis for 21st century food production. An ecosystems view recognises that food production systems depend on ecosystem services but also have ecosystem impacts. These dependencies and impacts are often poorly understood by many people and frequently overlooked. We provide an overview of the key ecosystem services involved in different food production systems, including crop and livestock production, aquaculture and the harvesting of wild nature. We highlight the important ecosystem impacts of food production systems, including habitat loss and degradation, changes to water and nutrient cycles across a range of scales, and biodiversity loss. These impacts often undermine the very ecosystem services on which food production systems depend, as well as other ecosystem services unrelated to food. We argue that addressing these impacts requires us to re-design food production systems to recognise and manage the limitations on production imposed by the ecosystems within which they are embedded, and increasingly embrace a more multifunctional view of food production systems and associated ecosystems. In this way, we should be able to produce food more sustainably whilst inflicting less damage on other important ecosystem services.

Exposure to environmental oestrogenic chemicals and breast cancer.

The human population is now exposed on a daily basis to a multitude of environmental pollutant chemicals that would not have been present a century ago, and many of these chemicals have been detected in the human breast. The fatty nature of human breast tissue makes it a particular target for lipophilic as well as hydrophilic pollutant chemicals, which may enter the human body through oral, respiratory, or dermal routes. These chemicals possess a range of endocrine-disrupting properties and genotoxic activity, but from a breast cancer perspective the greatest concern has centered around their ability to mimic or interfere with the action of estrogen. The breast is an endocrine target organ and exposure to estrogen is a known risk factor for breast cancer.

Global trends and factors associated with the illegal killing of elephants: a hierarchical bayesian analysis of carcass encounter data

Elephant poaching and the ivory trade remain high on the agenda at meetings of the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES). Well-informed debates require robust estimates of trends, the spatial distribution of poaching, and drivers of poaching. We present an analysis of trends and drivers of an indicator of elephant poaching of all elephant species. The site-based monitoring system known as Monitoring the Illegal Killing of Elephants (MIKE), set up by the 10th Conference of the Parties of CITES in 1997, produces carcass encounter data reported mainly by anti-poaching patrols. Data analyzed were site by year totals of 6,337 carcasses from 66 sites in Africa and Asia from 2002–2009. Analysis of these observational data is a serious challenge to traditional statistical methods because of the opportunistic and non-random nature of patrols, and the heterogeneity across sites. Adopting a Bayesian hierarchical modeling approach, we used the proportion of carcasses that were illegally killed (PIKE) as a poaching index, to estimate the trend and the effects of site- and country-level factors associated with poaching. Important drivers of illegal killing that emerged at country level were poor governance and low levels of human development, and at site level, forest cover and area of the site in regions where human population density is low. After a drop from 2002, PIKE remained fairly constant from 2003 until 2006, after which it increased until 2008. The results for 2009 indicate a decline. Sites with PIKE ranging from the lowest to the highest were identified. The results of the analysis provide a sound information base for scientific evidence-based decision making in the CITES process.

Likelihood-free estimation of model evidence

Statistical methods of inference typically require the likelihood function to be computable in a reasonable amount of time. The class of “likelihood-free” methods termed Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) is able to eliminate this requirement, replacing the evaluation of the likelihood with simulation from it. Likelihood-free methods have gained in efficiency and popularity in the past few years, following their integration with Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) in order to better explore the parameter space. They have been applied primarily to estimating the parameters of a given model, but can also be used to compare models. Here we present novel likelihood-free approaches to model comparison, based upon the independent estimation of the evidence of each model under study. Key advantages of these approaches over previous techniques are that they allow the exploitation of MCMC or SMC algorithms for exploring the parameter space, and that they do not require a sampler able to mix between models. We validate the proposed methods using a simple exponential family problem before providing a realistic problem from human population genetics: the comparison of different demographic models based upon genetic data from the Y chromosome.

The Natural History of Slapton Ley Nature Reserve XVIII: nitrogen and phosphorus losses from the catchment - an export coefficient modelling approach

Nitrogen and phosphorus losses from the catchment of Slapton Ley, a small coastal lake in SW England, were calculated using an adaptation of a model developed by Jorgensen (1980). A detailed survey of the catchment revealed that its land use is dominated by both permanent and temporary grassland (respectively 38 and 32% of its total area), and that the remainder is made up of the cultivation of cereals and field vegetables, and market gardening. Livestock numbers in the catchment constitute ca. 6600 head of cattle, 10,000 sheep, 590 pigs, 1700 poultry and 58 horses. The permanent human population of the area is ca. 2000, served by two small gravity-fed sewage treatment works (STWs). Inputs to, and losses from, farmland in the catchment were computed using Jorgensen’s model, and coefficients derived from the data of Cooke (1976), Gostick (1982), Rast and Lee (1983) and Vollenweider (1968). Allowing for outputs from STWs, the total annual external load of N and P upon Slapton Ley is 160 t (35 kg ha-1) a-1 N, and 4.8 t (1.05 kg ha-1) a-1 P. Accordingly to Vollenweider (1968, 1975), such loadings exceed OECD permissible level by a factor of ca. 50 in the case of N, and ca. 5 in that of P. In order to reduce nutrient loads, attention would need to be paid to both STW and agricultural sources.

Wildfire responses to abrupt climate change in North America

It is widely accepted, based on data from the last few decades and on model simulations, that anthropogenic climate change will cause increased fire activity. However, less attention has been paid to the relationship between abrupt climate changes and heightened fire activity in the paleorecord. We use 35 charcoal and pollen records to assess how fire regimes in North America changed during the last glacial–interglacial transition (15 to 10 ka), a time of large and rapid climate changes. We also test the hypothesis that a comet impact initiated continental-scale wildfires at 12.9 ka; the data do not support this idea, nor are continent-wide fires indicated at any time during deglaciation. There are, however, clear links between large climate changes and fire activity. Biomass burning gradually increased from the glacial period to the beginning of the Younger Dryas. Although there are changes in biomass burning during the Younger Dryas, there is no systematic trend. There is a further increase in biomass burning after the Younger Dryas. Intervals of rapid climate change at 13.9, 13.2, and 11.7 ka are marked by large increases in fire activity. The timing of changes in fire is not coincident with changes in human population density or the timing of the extinction of the megafauna. Although these factors could have contributed to fire-regime changes at individual sites or at specific times, the charcoal data indicate an important role for climate, and particularly rapid climate change, in determining broad-scale levels of fire activity.

Plant–pathogen interactions: disease resistance in modern agriculture

The growing human population will require a significant increase in agricultural production. This challenge is made more difficult by the fact that changes in the climatic and environmental conditions under which crops are grown have resulted in the appearance of new diseases, whereas genetic changes within the pathogen have resulted in the loss of previously effective sources of resistance. To help meet this challenge, advanced genetic and statistical methods of analysis have been used to identify new resistance genes through global screens, and studies of plant-pathogen interactions have been undertaken to uncover the mechanisms by which disease resistance is achieved. The informed deployment of major, race-specific and partial, race-nonspecific resistance, either by conventional breeding or transgenic approaches, will enable the production of crop varieties with effective resistance without impacting on other agronomically important crop traits. Here, we review these recent advances and progress towards the ultimate goal of developing disease-resistant crops.

Aluminium and breast cancer: sources of exposure, tissue measurements and mechanisms of toxicological actions on breast biology

This review examines recent evidence linking exposure to aluminium with the aetiology of breast cancer. The human population is exposed to aluminium throughout daily life including through diet, application of antiperspirants, use of antacids and vaccination. Aluminium has now been measured in a range of human breast structures at higher levels than in blood serum and experimental evidence suggests that the tissue concentrations measured have the potential to adversely influence breast epithelial cells including generation of genomic instability, induction of anchorage-independent proliferation and interference in oestrogen action. The presence of aluminium in the human breast may also alter the breast microenvironment causing disruption to iron metabolism, oxidative damage to cellular components, inflammatory responses and alterations to the motility of cells. The main research need is now to investigate whether the concentrations of aluminium measured in the human breast can lead in vivo to any of the effects observed in cells in vitro and this would be aided by the identification of biomarkers specific for aluminium action.

Inflammatory modulation of exercise salience: using hormesis to return to a healthy lifestyle

Most of the human population in the western world has access to unlimited calories and leads an increasingly sedentary lifestyle. The propensity to undertake voluntary exercise or indulge in spontaneous physical exercise, which might be termed "exercise salience", is drawing increased scientific attention. Despite its genetic aspects, this complex behaviour is clearly modulated by the environment and influenced by physiological states. Inflammation is often overlooked as one of these conditions even though it is known to induce a state of reduced mobility. Chronic subclinical inflammation is associated with the metabolic syndrome; a largely lifestyle-induced disease which can lead to decreased exercise salience. The result is a vicious cycle that increases oxidative stress and reduces metabolic flexibility and perpetuates the disease state. In contrast, hormetic stimuli can induce an anti-inflammatory phenotype, thereby enhancing exercise salience, leading to greater biological fitness and improved functional longevity. One general consequence of hormesis is upregulation of mitochondrial function and resistance to oxidative stress. Examples of hormetic factors include calorie restriction, extreme environmental temperatures, physical activity and polyphenols. The hormetic modulation of inflammation, and thus, exercise salience, may help to explain the highly heterogeneous expression of voluntary exercise behaviour and therefore body composition phenotypes of humans living in similar obesogenic environments.

Urban and agricultural soils: conflicts and trade-offs in the optimization of ecosystem services

On-going human population growth and changing patterns of resource consumption are increasing global demand for ecosystem services, many of which are provided by soils. Some of these ecosystem services are linearly related to the surface area of pervious soil, whereas others show non-linear relationships, making ecosystem service optimization a complex task. As limited land availability creates conflicting demands among various types of land use, a central challenge is how to weigh these conflicting interests and how to achieve the best solutions possible from a perspective of sustainable societal development. These conflicting interests become most apparent in soils that are the most heavily used by humans for specific purposes: urban soils used for green spaces, housing, and other infrastructure and agricultural soils for producing food, fibres and biofuels. We argue that, despite their seemingly divergent uses of land, agricultural and urban soils share common features with regards to interactions between ecosystem services, and that the trade-offs associated with decision-making, while scale- and context-dependent, can be surprisingly similar between the two systems. We propose that the trade-offs within land use types and their soil-related ecosystems services are often disproportional, and quantifying these will enable ecologists and soil scientists to help policy makers optimizing management decisions when confronted with demands for multiple services under limited land availability.

On the evolutionary origins of obesity: a new hypothesis

Obesity is an escalating threat of pandemic proportions, currently affecting billions of people worldwide and exerting a devastating socioeconomic influence in industrialized countries. Despite intensive efforts to curtail obesity, results have proved disappointing. Although it is well recognized that obesity is a result of gene-environment interactions and that predisposition to obesity lies predominantly in our evolutionary past, there is much debate as to the precise nature of how our evolutionary past contributed to obesity. The “thrifty genotype” hypothesis suggests that obesity in industrialized countries is a throwback to our ancestors having undergone positive selection for genes that favored energy storage as a consequence of the cyclical episodes of famine and surplus after the advent of farming 10 000 years ago. Conversely, the “drifty genotype” hypothesis contends that the prevalence of thrifty genes is not a result of positive selection for energy-storage genes but attributable to genetic drift resulting from the removal of predative selection pressures. Both theories, however, assume that selection pressures the ancestors of modern humans living in western societies faced were the same. Moreover, neither theory adequately explains the impact of globalization and changing population demographics on the genetic basis for obesity in developed countries, despite clear evidence for ethnic variation in obesity susceptibility and related metabolic disorders. In this article, we propose that the modern obesity pandemic in industrialized countries is a result of the differential exposure of the ancestors of modern humans to environmental factors that began when modern humans left Africa around 70 000 years ago and migrated through the globe, reaching the Americas around 20 000 years ago. This article serves to elucidate how an understanding of ethnic differences in genetic susceptibility to obesity and the metabolic syndrome, in the context of historic human population redistribution, could be used in the treatment of obesity in industrialized countries

A double-blind, placebo controlled human study investigating the effects of coffee derived manno-oligosaccharides on the faecal microbiota of a healthy adult population.

The aims of this study were to assess the impact of coffee derived mannooligosaccharides on the faecal microbiota of a healthy UK based population. Methods and Results: A double-blind, placebo-controlled, crossover human intervention study was conducted. Volunteers were assigned, 3g MOS, 5g MOS and placebo coffee preparations, to consume daily over a 3 wks, followed by a 2 wk washout period. Faecal samples were collected, and microbial population characterised using fluorescence in situ hybridization. Short-chain and branched-chain fatty acid profiles were obtained by gas chromatography. All treatments led to significant lactobacilli increases (placebo, p < 0.001; 3g, p = 0.04; 5g, p=0.04). The 3g treatment led to a significant bifidobacteria increase (p=0.001). Significantly less iso-valerate was found in faeces following 3g MOS daily (p=0.05). Conclusions: The 3g dose of MOS led to a potentially beneficial shift in the faecal microbiota. MOS was therefore confirmed to be a prebiotic at 3g dose. Significance and Impact of Study: This study provides confirmation of a new novel prebiotic, that can be considered for incorporation into a wider variety of food products, to provide different selective and nutritional properties.

Mutations in H5N1 influenza virus hemagglutinin that confer binding to human tracheal airway epithelium

The emergence in 2009 of a swine-origin H1N1 influenza virus as the first pandemic of the 21st Century is a timely reminder of the international public health impact of influenza viruses, even those associated with mild disease. The widespread distribution of highly pathogenic H5N1 influenza virus in the avian population has spawned concern that it may give rise to a human influenza pandemic. The mortality rate associated with occasional human infection by H5N1 virus approximates 60%, suggesting that an H5N1 pandemic would be devastating to global health and economy. To date, the H5N1 virus has not acquired the propensity to transmit efficiently between humans. The reasons behind this are unclear, especially given the high mutation rate associated with influenza virus replication. Here we used a panel of recombinant H5 hemagglutinin (HA) variants to demonstrate the potential for H5 HA to bind human airway epithelium, the predominant target tissue for influenza virus infection and spread. While parental H5 HA exhibited limited binding to human tracheal epithelium, introduction of selected mutations converted the binding profile to that of a current human influenza strain HA. Strikingly, these amino-acid changes required multiple simultaneous mutations in the genomes of naturally occurring H5 isolates. Moreover, H5 HAs bearing intermediate sequences failed to bind airway tissues and likely represent mutations that are an evolutionary "dead end." We conclude that, although genetic changes that adapt H5 to human airways can be demonstrated, they may not readily arise during natural virus replication. This genetic barrier limits the likelihood that current H5 viruses will originate a human pandemic.