On the nature of ULF wave power during nightside auroral activations and substorms: 2. temporal evolution

We present a statistical analysis of the time evolution of ground magnetic fluctuations in three (12–48 s, 24–96 s and 48–192 s) period bands during nightside auroral activations. We use an independently derived auroral activation list composed of both substorms and pseudo-breakups to provide an estimate of the activation times of nightside aurora during periods with comprehensive ground magnetometer coverage. One hundred eighty-one events in total are studied to demonstrate the statistical nature of the time evolution of magnetic wave power during the ∼30 min surrounding auroral activations. We find that the magnetic wave power is approximately constant before an auroral activation, starts to grow up to 90 s prior to the optical onset time, maximizes a few minutes after the auroral activation, then decays slightly to a new, and higher, constant level. Importantly, magnetic ULF wave power always remains elevated after an auroral activation, whether it is a substorm or a pseudo-breakup. We subsequently divide the auroral activation list into events that formed part of ongoing auroral activity and events that had little preceding geomagnetic activity. We find that the evolution of wave power in the ∼10–200 s period band essentially behaves in the same manner through auroral onset, regardless of event type. The absolute power across ULF wave bands, however, displays a power law-like dependency throughout a 30 min period centered on auroral onset time. We also find evidence of a secondary maximum in wave power at high latitudes ∼10 min following isolated substorm activations. Most significantly, we demonstrate that magnetic wave power levels persist after auroral activations for ∼10 min, which is consistent with recent findings of wave-driven auroral precipitation during substorms. This suggests that magnetic wave power and auroral particle precipitation are intimately linked and key components of the substorm onset process.

Instantaneous gelation in Smoluchowski’s coagulation equation revisited

We study the solutions of the Smoluchowski coagulation equation with a regularization term which removes clusters from the system when their mass exceeds a specified cutoff size, M. We focus primarily on collision kernels which would exhibit an instantaneous gelation transition in the absence of any regularization. Numerical simulations demonstrate that for such kernels with monodisperse initial data, the regularized gelation time decreasesas M increases, consistent with the expectation that the gelation time is zero in the unregularized system. This decrease appears to be a logarithmically slow function of M, indicating that instantaneously gelling kernels may still be justifiable as physical models despite the fact that they are highly singular in the absence of a cutoff. We also study the case when a source of monomers is introduced in the regularized system. In this case a stationary state is reached. We present a complete analytic description of this regularized stationary state for the model kernel, K(m1,m2)=max{m1,m2}ν, which gels instantaneously when M→∞ if ν>1. The stationary cluster size distribution decays as a stretched exponential for small cluster sizes and crosses over to a power law decay with exponent ν for large cluster sizes. The total particle density in the stationary state slowly vanishes as [(ν−1)logM]−1/2 when M→∞. The approach to the stationary state is nontrivial: Oscillations about the stationary state emerge from the interplay between the monomer injection and the cutoff, M, which decay very slowly when M is large. A quantitative analysis of these oscillations is provided for the addition model which describes the situation in which clusters can only grow by absorbing monomers.

Novel single trial movement classification based on temporal dynamics of EEG

Various complex oscillatory processes are involved in the generation of the motor command. The temporal dynamics of these processes were studied for movement detection from single trial electroencephalogram (EEG). Autocorrelation analysis was performed on the EEG signals to find robust markers of movement detection. The evolution of the autocorrelation function was characterised via the relaxation time of the autocorrelation by exponential curve fitting. It was observed that the decay constant of the exponential curve increased during movement, indicating that the autocorrelation function decays slowly during motor execution. Significant differences were observed between movement and no moment tasks. Additionally, a linear discriminant analysis (LDA) classifier was used to identify movement trials with a peak accuracy of 74%.

Transient atmospheric response to interactive SST anomalies

The transient atmospheric response to interactive SST anomalies in the midlatitudes is investigated using a three-layer QG model coupled in perpetual winter conditions to a slab oceanic mixed layer in the North Atlantic. The SST anomalies are diagnosed from a coupled run and prescribed as initial conditions, but are free to evolve. The initial evolution of the atmospheric response is similar to that obtained with a prescribed SST anomaly, starting as a quasi-linear baroclinic and then quickly evolving into a growing equivalent barotropic one. Because of the heat flux damping, the SST anomaly amplitude slowly decreases, albeit with little change in pattern. Correspondingly, the atmospheric response only increases until it reaches a maximum amplitude after about 1–3.5 months, depending on the SST anomaly considered. The response is similar to that at equilibrium in the fixed SST case, but it is 1.5–2 times smaller, and then slowly decays away.

The evolution of the Sun's open magnetic flux: I. a single bipole

In this paper the origin and evolution of the Sun’s open magnetic flux are considered for single magnetic bipoles as they are transported across the Sun. The effects of magnetic flux transport on the radial field at the surface of the Sun are modeled numerically by developing earlier work by Wang, Sheeley, and Lean (2000). The paper considers how the initial tilt of the bipole axis (α) and its latitude of emergence affect the variation and magnitude of the surface and open magnetic flux. The amount of open magnetic flux is estimated by constructing potential coronal fields. It is found that the open flux may evolve independently from the surface field for certain ranges of the tilt angle. For a given tilt angle, the lower the latitude of emergence, the higher the magnitude of the surface and open flux at the end of the simulation. In addition, three types of behavior are found for the open flux depending on the initial tilt angle of the bipole axis. When the tilt is such that α ≥ 2◦ the open flux is independent of the surface flux and initially increases before decaying away. In contrast, for tilt angles in the range −16◦ < α < 2◦ the open flux follows the surface flux and continually decays. Finally, for α ≤ −16◦ the open flux first decays and then increases in magnitude towards a second maximum before decaying away. This behavior of the open flux can be explained in terms of two competing effects produced by differential rotation. Firstly, differential rotation may increase or decrease the open flux by rotating the centers of each polarity of the bipole at different rates when the axis has tilt. Secondly, it decreases the open flux by increasing the length of the polarity inversion line where flux cancellation occurs. The results suggest that, in order to reproduce a realistic model of the Sun’s open magnetic flux over a solar cycle, it is important to have accurate input data on the latitude of emergence of bipoles along with the variation of their tilt angles as the cycle progresses.

Cusp ion steps, field-aligned currents and poleward moving auroral forms

We predict the field-aligned currents around cusp ion steps produced by pulsed reconnection between the geomagnetic field and an interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) with a B-Y component that is large in magnitude. For B-Y > 0, patches of newly opened flux move westward and eastward in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, respectively, under the influence of the magnetic curvature force. These flow directions are reversed for B-Y < 0. The speed of this longitudinal motion initially grows with elapsed time since reconnection, but then decays as the newly opened field lines straighten. We predict sheets of field-aligned current on the boundaries between the patches produced by successive reconnection pulses, associated with the difference in the speeds of their longitudinal motion. For low elapsed times since reconnection, near the equatorward edge of the cusp region where the field lines are accelerating, the field-aligned current sheets will be downward or upward in both hemispheres for positive or negative IMF B-Y, respectively. At larger elapsed times since reconnection, as events slow and evolve from the cusp into the mantle region, these field-aligned current directions will be reversed. Observations by the Polar spacecraft on August 26,1998, show the predicted upward current sheets at steps seen in the mantle region for IMF B-Y > 0. Mapped into the ionosphere, the steps coincide with poleward moving events seen by the CUTLASS HF radar. The mapped location of the largest step also coincides with a poleward moving arc seen by the UVI imager on Polar. We show that the arc is consistent with a region of upward field-aligned current that has become unstable, such that a potential drop of about 1 kV formed below the spacecraft. The importance of these observations is that they confirm that the poleward moving events, as seen by the HF radar and the UV imager, are due to pulsed magnetopause reconnection. Milan et al. [2000] noted that the great longitudinal extent of these events means that the required reconnection pulses would have contributed almost all the voltage placed across the magnetosphere at this time. The observations also show that auroral arcs can form on open field lines in response to the pulsed application of voltage at the magnetopause.

Long-term variations in the magnetic fields of the Sun and the heliosphere: their origin, effects, and implications

Recent studies of the variation of geomagnetic activity over the past 140 years have quantified the "coronal source" magnetic flux F-s that leaves the solar atmosphere and enters the heliosphere and have shown that it has risen, on average, by an estimated 34% since 1963 and by 140% since 1900. This variation of open solar flux has been reproduced by Solanki et al. [2000] using a model which demonstrates how the open flux accumulates and decays, depending on the rate of flux emergence in active regions and on the length of the solar cycle. We here use a new technique to evaluate solar cycle length and find that it does vary in association with the rate of change of F-s in the way predicted. The long-term variation of the rate of flux emergence is found to be very similar in form to that in F-s, which may offer a potential explanation of why F-s appears to be a useful proxy for extrapolating solar total irradiance back in time. We also find that most of the variation of cosmic ray fluxes incident on Earth is explained by the strength of the heliospheric field (quantified by F-s) and use observations of the abundance of the isotope Be-10 (produced by cosmic rays and deposited in ice sheets) to study the decrease in F-s during the Maunder minimum. The interior motions at the base of the convection zone, where the solar dynamo is probably located, have recently been revealed using the helioseismology technique and found to exhibit a 1.3-year oscillation. This periodicity is here reported in observations of the interplanetary magnetic field and geomagnetic activity but is only present after 1940, When present, it shows a strong 22-year variation, peaking near the maximum of even-numbered sunspot cycles and showing minima at the peaks of odd-numbered cycles. We discuss the implications of these long-term solar and heliospheric variations for Earth's environment.

Long-term variations in the magnetic field of the Sun and possible implications for terrestrial climate

Recent studies of the variation of geomagnetic activity over the past 140 years have quantified the "coronal source" or "open" magnetic flux F-s that leaves the solar atmosphere and enters the heliosphere and have shown that it has risen, on average, by 34% since 1963 and by 140% since 1900. This variation is reflected in studies of the heliospheric field using isotopes deposited in ice sheets and meteorites by the action of galactic comic rays. The variation has also been reproduced using a model that demonstrates how the open flux accumulates and decays, depending on the rate of flux emergence in active regions and on the length of the solar cycle. The cosmic ray flux at energies > 3 GeV is found to have decayed by about 15% during the 20(th) century (and by about 4% at > 13 GeV). We show that the changes in the open flux do reflect changes in the photospheric and sub-surface field which offers an explanation of why open flux appears to be a good proxy for solar irradiance extrapolation. Correlations between F-s, solar cycle length, L, and 11-year smoothed sunspot number, R-11, explain why the various irradiance reconstructions for the last 150 years are similar in form. Possible implications of the inferred changes in cosmic ray flux and irradiance for global temperatures on Earth are discussed.

Ionospheric and geomagnetic responses to changes in IMF B_Z: a superposed epoch study

Superposed epoch studies have been carried out in order to determine the ionospheric response at mid-latitudes to southward turnings of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). This is compared with the geomagnetic response, as seen in the indices K p, AE and Dst. The solar wind, IMF and geomagnetic data used were hourly averages from the years 1967–1989 and thus cover a full 22-year cycle in the solar magnetic field. These data were divided into subsets, determined by the magnitudes of the southward turnings and the concomitant increase in solar wind pressure. The superposed epoch studies were carried out using the time of the southward turning as time zero. The response of the mid-latitude ionosphere is studied by looking at the F-layer critical frequencies, f o F2, from hourly soundings by the Slough ionosonde and their deviation from the monthly median values, δf o F2. For the southward turnings with a change in B z of δB z > 11.5 nT accompanied by a solar wind dynamic pressure P exceeding 5 nPa, the F region critical frequency, f o F2, shows a marked decrease, reaching a minimum value about 20 h after the southward turning. This recovers to pre-event values over the subsequent 24 h, on average. The Dst index shows the classic storm-time decrease to about −60 nT. Four days later, the index has still to fully recover and is at about −25 nT. Both the K p and AE indices show rises before the southward turnings, when the IMF is strongly northward but the solar wind dynamic pressure is enhanced. The average AE index does register a clear isolated pulse (averaging 650 nT for 2 h, compared with a background peak level of near 450 nT at these times) showing enhanced energy deposition at high latitudes in substorms but, like K p, remains somewhat enhanced for several days, even after the average IMF has returned to zero after 1 day. This AE background decays away over several days as the Dst index recovers, indicating that there is some contamination of the currents observed at the AE stations by the continuing enhanced equatorial ring current. For data averaged over all seasons, the critical frequencies are depressed at Slough by 1.3 MHz, which is close to the lower decile of the overall distribution of δf o Fl values. Taking 30-day periods around summer and winter solstice, the largest depression is 1.6 and 1.2 MHz, respectively. This seasonal dependence is confirmed by a similar study for a Southern Hemisphere station, Argentine Island, giving peak depressions of 1.8 MHz and 0.5 MHz for summer and winter. For the subset of turnings where δB z > 11.5 nT and P ≤ 5 nPa, the response of the geomagnetic indices is similar but smaller, while the change in δf o F2 has all but disappeared. This confirms that the energy deposited at high latitudes, which leads to the geomagnetic and ionospheric disturbances following a southward turning of the IMF, increases with the energy density (dynamic pressure) of the solar wind flow. The magnitude of all responses are shown to depend on δB z . At Slough, the peak depression always occurs when Slough rotates into the noon sector. The largest ionospheric response is for southward turnings seen between 15–21 UT.

The excitation of plasma convection in the high-latitude ionosphere

Recent observations of ionospheric flows by ground-based radars, in particular by the European Incoherent Scatter (EISCAT) facility using the “Polar” experiment, together with previous analyses of the response of geomagnetic disturbance to variations of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF), suggest that convection in the high-latitude ionosphere should be considered to be the sum of two intrinsically time-dependent patterns, one driven by solar wind-magnetosphere coupling at the dayside magnetopause, the other by the release of energy in the geomagnetic tail (mainly by dayside and nightside reconnection, respectively). The flows driven by dayside coupling are largest on the dayside, where they usually dominate, are associated with an expanding polar cap area, and are excited and decay on ∼10-min time scales following southward and northward turnings of the IMF, respectively. The latter finding indicates that the production of new open flux at the dayside magnetopause excites magnetospheric and ionospheric flow only for a short interval, ∼10 min, such that the flow driven by this source subsequently decays on this time scale unless maintained by the production of more open flux tubes. Correspondingly, the flows excited by the release of energy in the tail, mainly during substorms, are largest on the nightside, are associated with a contracting polar cap boundary, and are excited on ∼1-hour time scales following a southward turn of the IMF. In general, the total ionospheric flow will be the sum of the flows produced by these two sources, such that due to their different response times to changes in the IMF, considerable variations in the flow pattern can occur for a given direction and strength of the IMF. Consequently, the ionospheric electric field cannot generally be regarded as arising from a simple mapping of the solar wind electric field along open flux tubes.

First Results with the RISING active stopper

This paper outlines some of the physics opportunities available with the GSI RISING active stopper and presents preliminary results from an experiment aimed at performing beta-delayed gamma-ray spectroscopic studies in heavy-neutron-rich nuclei produced following the projectile fragmentation of a 1 GeV per nucleon 208Pb primary beam. The energy response of the silicon active stopping detector for both heavy secondary fragments and beta-particles is demonstrated and preliminary results on the decays of neutron-rich Tantalum (Ta) to Tungsten (W) isotopes are presented as examples of the potential of this technique to allow new structural studies in hitherto experimentally unreachable heavy, neutron-rich nuclei. The resulting spectral information inferred from excited states in the tungsten daughter nuclei are compared with results from axially symmetric Hartree–Fock calculations of the nuclear shape and suggest a change in ground state structure for the N = 116 isotone 190W compared to the lighter isotopes of this element.

New insights into the structure of exotic nuclei using the RISING active stopper

This conference paper outlines the operation and some of the preliminary physics results using the GSI RISING active stopper. Data are presented from an experiment using combined isomer and beta‐delayed gamma‐ray spectroscopy to study low‐lying spectral and decay properties of heavy‐neutron‐rich nuclei around A∼190 produced following the relativistic projectile fragmentation of 208Pb primary beam. The response of the RISING active stopper detector is demonstrated for both the implantation of heavy secondary fragments and in‐situ decay of beta‐particles. Beta‐delayed gamma‐ray spectroscopy following decays of the neutron‐rich nucleus 194Re is presented to demonstrate the experimental performance of the set‐up. The resulting information inferred from excited states in the W and Os daughter nuclei is compared with results from Skyrme Hartree‐Fock predictions of the evolution of nuclear shape.

Enhanced Australian carbon sink despite increased wildfire during the 21st century

Climate projections show Australia becoming significantly warmer during the 21st century, and precipitation decreasing over much of the continent. Such changes are conventionally considered to increase wildfire risk. Nevertheless, we show that burnt area increases in southern Australia, but decreases in northern Australia. Overall the projected increase in fire is small (0.72–1.31% of land area, depending on the climate scenario used), and does not cause a decrease in carbon storage. In fact, carbon storage increases by 3.7–5.6 Pg C (depending on the climate scenario used). Using a process-based model of vegetation dynamics, vegetation–fire interactions and carbon cycling, we show increased fire promotes a shift to more fire-adapted trees in wooded areas and their encroachment into grasslands, with an overall increase in forested area of 3.9–11.9%. Both changes increase carbon uptake and storage. The increase in woody vegetation increases the amount of coarse litter, which decays more slowly than fine litter hence leading to a relative reduction in overall heterotrophic respiration, further reducing carbon losses. Direct CO2 effects increase woody cover, water-use efficiency and productivity, such that carbon storage is increased by 8.5–14.8 Pg C compared to simulations in which CO2 is held constant at modern values. CO2 effects tend to increase burnt area, fire fluxes and therefore carbon losses in arid areas, but increase vegetation density and reduce burnt area in wooded areas.

El Niño 2015/2016: impact analysis of past El Niños

This is a DfID (Department for International Development) commissioned report on the impact of historical El Niño events on low- and middle-income countries across Africa and elsewhere. The report identifies El Niño events in the past 35 years and highlights regions and countries vulnerable to their impacts. The impacts on rainfall and temperature are broken down by season and country as the El Niño develops, peaks and decays and are represented in at-a-glance Impact Tables. The Impact Tables also include an extensive review of literature (e.g., peer-reviewed, grey literature and media reports) to identify potential socio-economic impacts in vulnerable sectors such as water, infrastructure, energy and health. The risk of such impacts are graded as high, medium or potential depending on the meteorological signal and the robustness of evidence available.

Long-lived excited-state dynamics of i-motif structures probed by time-resolved infrared spectroscopy

UV-generated excited states of cytosine (C) nucleobases are precursors to mutagenic photoproduct formation. The i-motif formed from C-rich sequences is known to exhibit high yields of long-lived excited states following UV absorption. Here the excited states of several i-motif structures have been characterized following 267 nm laser excitation using time-resolved infrared spectroscopy (TRIR). All structures possess a long-lived excited state of ~300 ps and notably in some cases decays greater than 1 ns are observed. These unusually long-lived lifetimes are attributed to the interdigitated DNA structure which prevents direct base stacking overlap.