Estimating the direct aerosol radiative perturbation: impact of ocean surface representation and aerosol non-sphericity

Atmospheric aerosols are now actively studied, in particular because of their radiative and climate impacts. Estimations of the direct aerosol radiative perturbation, caused by extinction of incident solar radiation, usually rely on radiative transfer codes and involve simplifying hypotheses. This paper addresses two approximations which are widely used for the sake of simplicity and limiting the computational cost of the calculations. Firstly, it is shown that using a Lambertian albedo instead of the more rigorous bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF) to model the ocean surface radiative properties leads to large relative errors in the instantaneous aerosol radiative perturbation. When averaging over the day, these errors cancel out to acceptable levels of less than 3% (except in the northern hemisphere winter). The other scope of this study is to address aerosol non-sphericity effects. Comparing an experimental phase function with an equivalent Mie-calculated phase function, we found acceptable relative errors if the aerosol radiative perturbation calculated for a given optical thickness is daily averaged. However, retrieval of the optical thickness of non-spherical aerosols assuming spherical particles can lead to significant errors. This is due to significant differences between the spherical and non-spherical phase functions. Discrepancies in aerosol radiative perturbation between the spherical and non-spherical cases are sometimes reduced and sometimes enhanced if the aerosol optical thickness for the spherical case is adjusted to fit the simulated radiance of the non-spherical case.

Forecasting economic and financial time series with non-linear models

In this paper we discuss the current state-of-the-art in estimating, evaluating, and selecting among non-linear forecasting models for economic and financial time series. We review theoretical and empirical issues, including predictive density, interval and point evaluation and model selection, loss functions, data-mining, and aggregation. In addition, we argue that although the evidence in favor of constructing forecasts using non-linear models is rather sparse, there is reason to be optimistic. However, much remains to be done. Finally, we outline a variety of topics for future research, and discuss a number of areas which have received considerable attention in the recent literature, but where many questions remain.

Global-scale climate impact functions: the relationship between climate forcing and impact

Although there is a strong policy interest in the impacts of climate change corresponding to different degrees of climate change, there is so far little consistent empirical evidence of the relationship between climate forcing and impact. This is because the vast majority of impact assessments use emissions-based scenarios with associated socio-economic assumptions, and it is not feasible to infer impacts at other temperature changes by interpolation. This paper presents an assessment of the global-scale impacts of climate change in 2050 corresponding to defined increases in global mean temperature, using spatially-explicit impacts models representing impacts in the water resources, river flooding, coastal, agriculture, ecosystem and built environment sectors. Pattern-scaling is used to construct climate scenarios associated with specific changes in global mean surface temperature, and a relationship between temperature and sea level used to construct sea level rise scenarios. Climate scenarios are constructed from 21 climate models to give an indication of the uncertainty between forcing and response. The analysis shows that there is considerable uncertainty in the impacts associated with a given increase in global mean temperature, due largely to uncertainty in the projected regional change in precipitation. This has important policy implications. There is evidence for some sectors of a non-linear relationship between global mean temperature change and impact, due to the changing relative importance of temperature and precipitation change. In the socio-economic sectors considered here, the relationships are reasonably consistent between socio-economic scenarios if impacts are expressed in proportional terms, but there can be large differences in absolute terms. There are a number of caveats with the approach, including the use of pattern-scaling to construct scenarios, the use of one impacts model per sector, and the sensitivity of the shape of the relationships between forcing and response to the definition of the impact indicator.

Probability functions to build composite indicators: a methodology to measure environmental impacts of genetically modified crops

There is an on-going debate on the environmental effects of genetically modified crops to which this paper aims to contribute. First, data on environmental impacts of genetically modified (GM) and conventional crops are collected from peer-reviewed journals, and secondly an analysis is conducted in order to examine which crop type is less harmful for the environment. Published data on environmental impacts are measured using an array of indicators, and their analysis requires their normalisation and aggregation. Taking advantage of composite indicators literature, this paper builds composite indicators to measure the impact of GM and conventional crops in three dimensions: (1) non-target key species richness, (2) pesticide use, and (3) aggregated environmental impact. The comparison between the three composite indicators for both crop types allows us to establish not only a ranking to elucidate which crop is more convenient for the environment but the probability that one crop type outperforms the other from an environmental perspective. Results show that GM crops tend to cause lower environmental impacts than conventional crops for the analysed indicators.

IntFOLD: an integrated server for modelling protein structures and functions from amino acid sequences

IntFOLD is an independent web server that integrates our leading methods for structure and function prediction. The server provides a simple unified interface that aims to make complex protein modelling data more accessible to life scientists. The server web interface is designed to be intuitive and integrates a complex set of quantitative data, so that 3D modelling results can be viewed on a single page and interpreted by non-expert modellers at a glance. The only required input to the server is an amino acid sequence for the target protein. Here we describe major performance and user interface updates to the server, which comprises an integrated pipeline of methods for: tertiary structure prediction, global and local 3D model quality assessment, disorder prediction, structural domain prediction, function prediction and modelling of protein-ligand interactions. The server has been independently validated during numerous CASP (Critical Assessment of Techniques for Protein Structure Prediction) experiments, as well as being continuously evaluated by the CAMEO (Continuous Automated Model Evaluation) project. The IntFOLD server is available at: http://www.reading.ac.uk/bioinf/IntFOLD/

Bit-index sort: a fast non-comparison integer sorting algorithm for permutations

This paper describes a fast integer sorting algorithm, herein referred as Bit-index sort, which is a non-comparison sorting algorithm for partial per-mutations, with linear complexity order in execution time. Bit-index sort uses a bit-array to classify input sequences of distinct integers, and exploits built-in bit functions in C compilers supported by machine hardware to retrieve the ordered output sequence. Results show that Bit-index sort outperforms in execution time to quicksort and counting sort algorithms. A parallel approach for Bit-index sort using two simultaneous threads is included, which obtains speedups up to 1.6.

Formulaic sequences in native and non-native argumentative writing in German

Whereas there is substantial scholarship on formulaic language in L1 and L2 English, there is less research on formulaicity in other languages. The aim of this paper is to contribute to learner corpus research into formulaic language in native and non-native German. To this effect, a corpus of argumentative essays written by advanced British students of German (WHiG) was compared with a corpus of argumentative essays written by German native speakers (Falko-L1). A corpus-driven analysis reveals a larger number of 3-grams in WHiG than in Falko-L1, which suggests that British advanced learners of German are more likely to use formulaic language in argumentative writing than their native-speaker counterparts. Secondly, by classifying the formulaic sequences according to their functions, this study finds that native speakers of German prefer discourse-structuring devices to stance expressions, whilst British advanced learners display the opposite preferences. Thirdly, the results show that learners of German make greater use of macro-discourse-structuring devices and cautious language, whereas native speakers favour micro-discourse structuring devices and tend to use more direct language. This study increases our understanding of formulaic language typical of British advanced learners of German and reveals how diverging cultural paradigms can shape written native speaker and learner output.

Estrogens and thyroid hormone: Non-genomic effects are coupled to transcription.

Estrogens and thyroid hormones are regulators of important diverse physiological processes such as reproduction, thermogenesis, neural development, neural differentiation and cardiovascular functions. Both are ligands for receptors in the nuclear receptor superfamily, which act as ligand-dependent transcription factors, regulating transcription. However, estrogens and thyroid hormones also rapidly (within minutes or seconds) activate kinase cascades and calcium increases, presumably initiated at the cell membrane. We discuss the relevance of both modes of hormone action, including the membrane estrogen receptor, to physiology, with particular reference to lordosis behavior. We first showed that estrogen restricted to the membrane can, in fact, lead to subsequent increases in transcription from a consensus estrogen response element-based reporter in the neuroblastoma cell line, SK-N-BE(2)C. Using a novel hormonal paradigm, we also showed that the activation of protein kinase A, protein kinase C, mitogen activated protein kinase and increases in calcium were important in the ability of the membrane-limited estrogen to potentiate transcription. We discuss the source of calcium important in transcriptional potentiation. Since estrogens and thyroid hormones have common effects on neuroprotection, cognition and mood, we also hypothesized that crosstalk could occur between the rapid actions of thyroid hormones and the genomic actions of estrogens. In neural cells, we showed that triiodothyronine acting rapidly via MAPK can increase transcription by the nuclear estrogen receptor ERa from a consensus estrogen response element, possibly by the phosphorylation of the ERa. Novel mechanisms that link signals initiated by hormones from the membrane to the nucleus are physiologically relevant and can achieve neuroendocrine integration

Membrane-initiated non-genomic signaling by estrogens in the hypothalamus: cross-talk with glucocorticoids with implications for behavior

The estrogen receptor and glucocorticoid receptor are members of the nuclear receptor superfamily that can signal using both non-genomic and genomic transcriptional modes. Though genomic modes of signaling have been well characterized and several behaviors attributed to this signaling mechanism, the physiological significance of non-genomic modes of signaling has not been well understood. This has partly been due to the controversy regarding the identity of the membrane ER (mER) or membrane GR (mGR) that may mediate rapid, non-genomic signaling and the downstream signaling cascades that may result as a consequence of steroid ligands binding the mER or the mGR. Both estrogens and glucocorticoids exert a number of actions on the hypothalamus, including feedback. This review focuses on the various candidates for the mER or mGR in the hypothalamus and the contribution of non-genomic signaling to classical hypothalamically driven behaviors and changes in neuronal morphology. It also attempts to categorize some of the possible functions of non-genomic signaling at both the cellular level and at the organismal level that are relevant for behavior, including some behaviors that are regulated by both estrogens and glucocorticoids in a potentially synergistic manner. Lastly, it attempts to show that steroid signaling via non-genomic modes may provide the organism with rapid behavioral responses to stimuli.

Novel European free-living, non-diazotrophic Bradyrhizobium isolates from contrasting soils that lack nodulation and nitrogen fixation genes - a genome comparison

The slow-growing genus Bradyrhizobium is biologically important in soils, with different representatives found to perform a range of biochemical functions including photosynthesis, induction of root nodules and symbiotic nitrogen fixation and denitrification. Consequently, the role of the genus in soil ecology and biogeochemical transformations is of agricultural and environmental significance. Some isolates of Bradyrhizobium have been shown to be non-symbiotic and do not possess the ability to form nodules. Here we present the genome and gene annotations of two such free-living Bradyrhizobium isolates, named G22 and BF49, from soils with differing long-term management regimes (grassland and bare fallow respectively) in addition to carbon metabolism analysis. These Bradyrhizobium isolates are the first to be isolated and sequenced from European soil and are the first free-living Bradyrhizobium isolates, lacking both nodulation and nitrogen fixation genes, to have their genomes sequenced and assembled from cultured samples. The G22 and BF49 genomes are distinctly different with respect to size and number of genes; the grassland isolate also contains a plasmid. There are also a number of functional differences between these isolates and other published genomes, suggesting that this ubiquitous genus is extremely heterogeneous and has roles within the community not including symbiotic nitrogen fixation.