Describing long-term trends in precipitation using generalized additive models

With the current concern over climate change, descriptions of how rainfall patterns are changing over time can be useful. Observations of daily rainfall data over the last few decades provide information on these trends. Generalized linear models are typically used to model patterns in the occurrence and intensity of rainfall. These models describe rainfall patterns for an average year but are more limited when describing long-term trends, particularly when these are potentially non-linear. Generalized additive models (GAMS) provide a framework for modelling non-linear relationships by fitting smooth functions to the data. This paper describes how GAMS can extend the flexibility of models to describe seasonal patterns and long-term trends in the occurrence and intensity of daily rainfall using data from Mauritius from 1962 to 2001. Smoothed estimates from the models provide useful graphical descriptions of changing rainfall patterns over the last 40 years at this location. GAMS are particularly helpful when exploring non-linear relationships in the data. Care is needed to ensure the choice of smooth functions is appropriate for the data and modelling objectives. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Developing protocols for nursery based scheduling trials

Most existing crop scheduling models are cultivar specific and are developed using academic resources. As such they rarely meet the particular needs of a grower. A series of protocols have been created to generate effective schedules for a changing product range using data generated on site at a commercial nursery. A screening programme has been developed to help determine a cultivar's photoperiod sensitivity and vernalisation requirement. Experimental conditions were obtained using a cold store facility set to 5degreesC and photoperiod cloches. Eight and 16 hour photoperiod treatments were achieved at low cost by growing plants in cloches of opaque plastic with a motorised rolling screen. Natural light conditions were extended where necessary using a high pressure sodium lamp. Batches of plants were grown according to different schedules based on these treatments. The screening programme found Coreopsis grandiflora 'Flying Saucers' to be a long day plant. Data to form the basis of graphical tracks was taken using variations on commercial schedules. The work provides a nursery based approach to the continuous improvement of crop scheduling practises.

Detecting recombination in 4-taxa DNA sequence alignments with Bayesian hidden Markov models and Markov chain Monte Carlo

This article presents a statistical method for detecting recombination in DNA sequence alignments, which is based on combining two probabilistic graphical models: (1) a taxon graph (phylogenetic tree) representing the relationship between the taxa, and (2) a site graph (hidden Markov model) representing interactions between different sites in the DNA sequence alignments. We adopt a Bayesian approach and sample the parameters of the model from the posterior distribution with Markov chain Monte Carlo, using a Metropolis-Hastings and Gibbs-within-Gibbs scheme. The proposed method is tested on various synthetic and real-world DNA sequence alignments, and we compare its performance with the established detection methods RECPARS, PLATO, and TOPAL, as well as with two alternative parameter estimation schemes.

The assessment of GCSE art: Criterion-referencing and cognitive abilities

In this paper Cognitive Abilities Test scores are compared directly with moderated GCSE scores awarded to the same group of pupils. For ease of interpretation the comparisons are presented in a graphical form. Whilst some provisional and tentative conclusions are drawn about the reliability of GCSE art, questions are raised about the general validity of criterion-referenced assessment in this area.

Investigating novel point-select techniques for older people

As the number and proportion of older people worldwide continues to grow, robotic devices can play a role in helping older people continue to live independent and active lives. Graphical user interfaces (GUIs) and interactions that involve pointing to items and selecting them are becoming more common in assistive robots. The authors are currently working on a project investigating techniques to improve point-select interactions for older people. In particular, the project studies how older people respond to expanding and moving targets. The research is ongoing, and this paper describes the methods that will be used in upcoming experiments.

Bringing the target to the cursor: proxy targets for older adults

Studies in the literature have proposed techniques to facilitate pointing in graphical user interfaces through the use of proxy targets. Proxy targets effectively bring the target to the cursor, thereby reducing the distance that the cursor must travel. This paper describes a study which aims to provide an initial understanding of how older adults respond to proxy targets, and compares older with younger users. We found that users in both age groups adjusted to the proxy targets without difficulty, and there was no indication in the cursor trajectories that users were confused about which target, i.e. the original versus the proxy, was to be selected. In terms of times, preliminary results show that for younger users, proxies did not provide any benefits over direct selection, while for older users, times were increased with proxy targets. A full analysis of the movement times, error rates, throughput and subjective feedback is currently underway.

Toward construction of an inexpensive brain computer interface for goal oriented applications

The paper describes the implementation of an offline, low-cost Brain Computer Interface (BCI) alternative to more expensive commercial models. Using inexpensive general purpose clinical EEG acquisition hardware (Truscan32, Deymed Diagnostic) as the base unit, a synchronisation module was constructed to allow the EEG hardware to be operated precisely in time to allow for recording of automatically time stamped EEG signals. The synchronising module allows the EEG recordings to be aligned in stimulus time locked fashion for further processing by the classifier to establish the class of the stimulus, sample by sample. This allows for the acquisition of signals from the subject’s brain for the goal oriented BCI application based on the oddball paradigm. An appropriate graphical user interface (GUI) was constructed and implemented as the method to elicit the required responses (in this case Event Related Potentials or ERPs) from the subject.

Styx grid services: lightweight middleware for efficient scientific workflows

The service-oriented approach to performing distributed scientific research is potentially very powerful but is not yet widely used in many scientific fields. This is partly due to the technical difficulties involved in creating services and workflows and the inefficiency of many workflow systems with regard to handling large datasets. We present the Styx Grid Service, a simple system that wraps command-line programs and allows them to be run over the Internet exactly as if they were local programs. Styx Grid Services are very easy to create and use and can be composed into powerful workflows with simple shell scripts or more sophisticated graphical tools. An important feature of the system is that data can be streamed directly from service to service, significantly increasing the efficiency of workflows that use large data volumes. The status and progress of Styx Grid Services can be monitored asynchronously using a mechanism that places very few demands on firewalls. We show how Styx Grid Services can interoperate with with Web Services and WS-Resources using suitable adapters.

The effect of cleft lip on socio-emotional functioning in school-aged children

Background: Children with cleft lip are known to be at raised risk for socio-emotional difficulties, but the nature of these problems and their causes are incompletely understood; longitudinal studies are required that include comprehensive assessment of child functioning, and consideration of developmental mechanisms. Method: Children with cleft lip (with and without cleft palate) (N = 93) and controls (N = 77), previously studied through infancy, were followed up at 7 years, and their socio-emotional functioning assessed using teacher and maternal reports, observations of social interactions, and child social representations (doll play). Direct and moderating effects of infant attachment and current parenting were investigated, as was the role of child communication difficulties and attractiveness. Results: Children with clefts had raised rates of teacher-reported social problems, and anxious and withdrawn-depressed behaviour; direct observations and child representations also revealed difficulties in social relationships. Child communication problems largely accounted for these effects, especially in children with cleft palate as well as cleft lip. Insecure attachment contributed to risk in both index and control groups, and a poorer current parenting environment exacerbated the difficulties of those with clefts. Conclusions: Children with clefts are at raised risk for socio-emotional difficulties in the school years; clinical interventions should focus on communication problems and supporting parenting; specific interventions around the transition to school may be required. More generally, the findings reflect the importance of communication skills for children’s peer relations.

Identifying likely successful users of virtual reality systems

This paper suggests a method for identifying individuals who are most suited to using virtual reality (VR) systems. The aim is to help both an individual or employer to decide where that individual's skills and abilities would be best deployed. By considering a potential user's competence and temperament, a graphical representation is introduced that may then be used to crudely delineate a high-aptitude participant against those with lesser capabilities. By introducing standard tests for competence and a standard classifier for temperament, and by further weighting each measure with respect to the technology currently available and the application, a detailed representation of the effectiveness of different users is developed.

Perspex machine X: software development

The Perspex Machine arose from the unification of computation with geometry. We now report significant redevelopment of both a partial C compiler that generates perspex programs and of a Graphical User Interface (GUI). The compiler is constructed with standard compiler-generator tools and produces both an explicit parse tree for C and an Abstract Syntax Tree (AST) that is better suited to code generation. The GUI uses a hash table and a simpler software architecture to achieve an order of magnitude speed up in processing and, consequently, an order of magnitude increase in the number of perspexes that can be manipulated in real time (now 6,000). Two perspex-machine simulators are provided, one using trans-floating-point arithmetic and the other using transrational arithmetic. All of the software described here is available on the world wide web. The compiler generates code in the neural model of the perspex. At each branch point it uses a jumper to return control to the main fibre. This has the effect of pruning out an exponentially increasing number of branching fibres, thereby greatly increasing the efficiency of perspex programs as measured by the number of neurons required to implement an algorithm. The jumpers are placed at unit distance from the main fibre and form a geometrical structure analogous to a myelin sheath in a biological neuron. Both the perspex jumper-sheath and the biological myelin-sheath share the computational function of preventing cross-over of signals to neurons that lie close to an axon. This is an example of convergence driven by similar geometrical and computational constraints in perspex and biological neurons.

The case for REITs in the mixed-asset portfolio in the short and long run

The poor performance of the Stock Market in the US up to the middle of 2003 has meant that REITs are increasingly been seen as an attractive addition to the mixed-asset portfolio. However, there is little evidence to indicate the consistency of the role REITs should play a role in the mixed-asset portfolio over different investment horizons. The results highlight that REITs do play a significant role over both different time horizons and holding periods. The findings show that REITs attractiveness as a diversification asset increase as the holding period increases. In addition, their diversification qualities span the entire efficient frontier, providing return enhancement properties at the lower end, switching to risk reduction qualities at the top end of the frontier.

Tenant mix variety in regional shopping centres: some UK empirical analyses

The variety and quality of the tenant mix within a shopping centre is a key concern in shopping centre management. Tenant mix determines the extent of externalities between outlets in the centre, helps establish the image of the centre and, as a result, determines the attractiveness of the centre for consumers. This then translates into sales and rents. However, the management of tenant mix has largely been based on perceived “optimum” arrangements and industry rules of thumb. This paper attempts to model the impact of tenant mix on the rent paid by retailers in larger UK shopping centres and, hence, the returns made by shopping centre landlords. It extends work on shopping centre rent determination (see Working Paper 10/03) utilising a database of 148 regional shopping centres in the UK, with detailed data for over 1900 tenants. Econometric models test the relationship between rental levels and the levels of retail concentration and diversity, while controlling for a range of continuous and qualitative characteristics of each tenant, each retail product, and each shopping centre. Factor analysis is then used to extract the core retail and service categories from the tenant lists of the 148 shopping centres. The factor scores from these core retailer factors are then tested against rent payable. The results from the empirical analysis allow us to generate some clear analytical and empirical implications for optimal retail management.

Use of the ratio plot in capture-recapture estimation

Statistical graphics are a fundamental, yet often overlooked, set of components in the repertoire of data analytic tools. Graphs are quick and efficient, yet simple instruments of preliminary exploration of a dataset to understand its structure and to provide insight into influential aspects of inference such as departures from assumptions and latent patterns. In this paper, we present and assess a graphical device for choosing a method for estimating population size in capture-recapture studies of closed populations. The basic concept is derived from a homogeneous Poisson distribution where the ratios of neighboring Poisson probabilities multiplied by the value of the larger neighbor count are constant. This property extends to the zero-truncated Poisson distribution which is of fundamental importance in capture–recapture studies. In practice however, this distributional property is often violated. The graphical device developed here, the ratio plot, can be used for assessing specific departures from a Poisson distribution. For example, simple contaminations of an otherwise homogeneous Poisson model can be easily detected and a robust estimator for the population size can be suggested. Several robust estimators are developed and a simulation study is provided to give some guidance on which should be used in practice. More systematic departures can also easily be detected using the ratio plot. In this paper, the focus is on Gamma mixtures of the Poisson distribution which leads to a linear pattern (called structured heterogeneity) in the ratio plot. More generally, the paper shows that the ratio plot is monotone for arbitrary mixtures of power series densities.

The effect of cleft lip on adults' responses to faces: cross-species findings

Cleft lip and palate is the most common of the congenital conditions affecting the face and cranial bones and is associated with a raised risk of difficulties in infant-caregiver interaction; the reasons for such difficulties are not fully understood. Here, we report two experiments designed to explore how adults respond to infant faces with and without cleft lip, using behavioural measures of attractiveness appraisal (‘liking’) and willingness to work to view or remove the images (‘wanting’). We found that infants with cleft lip were rated as less attractive and were viewed for shorter durations than healthy infants, an effect that was particularly apparent where the cleft lip was severe. Women rated the infant faces as more attractive than men did, but there were no differences in men and women's viewing times of these faces. In a second experiment, we found that the presence of a cleft lip in domestic animals affected adults' ‘liking’ and ‘wanting’ responses in a comparable way to that seen for human infants. Adults' responses were also remarkably similar for images of infants and animals with cleft lip, although no gender difference in attractiveness ratings or viewing times emerged for animals. We suggest that the presence of a cleft lip can substantially change the way in which adults respond to human and animal faces. Furthermore, women may respond in different ways to men when asked to appraise infant attractiveness, despite the fact that men and women ‘want’ to view images of infants for similar durations.