The accuracy of SST retrievals from AATSR: An initial assessment through geophysical validation against in situ radiometers, buoys and other SST data sets

The Advanced Along-Track Scanning Radiometer (AATSR) was launched on Envisat in March 2002. The AATSR instrument is designed to retrieve precise and accurate global sea surface temperature (SST) that, combined with the large data set collected from its predecessors, ATSR and ATSR-2, will provide a long term record of SST data that is greater than 15 years. This record can be used for independent monitoring and detection of climate change. The AATSR validation programme has successfully completed its initial phase. The programme involves validation of the AATSR derived SST values using in situ radiometers, in situ buoys and global SST fields from other data sets. The results of the initial programme presented here will demonstrate that the AATSR instrument is currently close to meeting its scientific objectives of determining global SST to an accuracy of 0.3 K (one sigma). For night time data, the analysis gives a warm bias of between +0.04 K (0.28 K) for buoys to +0.06 K (0.20 K) for radiometers, with slightly higher errors observed for day time data, showing warm biases of between +0.02 (0.39 K) for buoys to +0.11 K (0.33 K) for radiometers. They show that the ATSR series of instruments continues to be the world leader in delivering accurate space-based observations of SST, which is a key climate parameter.

Method of determining a geophysical-scale sea ice rheology from laboratory measurements

We present a methodology that allows a sea ice rheology, suitable for use in a General Circulation Model (GCM), to be determined from laboratory and tank experiments on sea ice when combined with a kinematic model of deformation. The laboratory experiments determine a material rheology for sea ice, and would investigate a nonlinear friction law of the form τ ∝ σ n⅔, instead of the more familiar Amonton's law, τ = μσn (τ is the shear stress, μ is the coefficient of friction and σ n is the normal stress). The modelling approach considers a representative region R containing ice floes (or floe aggregates), separated by flaws. The deformation of R is imposed and the motion of the floes determined using a kinematic model, which will be motivated from SAR observations. Deformation of the flaws is inferred from the floe motion and stress determined from the material rheology. The stress over R is then determined from the area-weighted contribution from flaws and floes

Efficient fully nonlinear data assimilation for geophysical fluid dynamics

A potential problem with Ensemble Kalman Filter is the implicit Gaussian assumption at analysis times. Here we explore the performance of a recently proposed fully nonlinear particle filter on a high-dimensional but simplified ocean model, in which the Gaussian assumption is not made. The model simulates the evolution of the vorticity field in time, described by the barotropic vorticity equation, in a highly nonlinear flow regime. While common knowledge is that particle filters are inefficient and need large numbers of model runs to avoid degeneracy, the newly developed particle filter needs only of the order of 10-100 particles on large scale problems. The crucial new ingredient is that the proposal density cannot only be used to ensure all particles end up in high-probability regions of state space as defined by the observations, but also to ensure that most of the particles have similar weights. Using identical twin experiments we found that the ensemble mean follows the truth reliably, and the difference from the truth is captured by the ensemble spread. A rank histogram is used to show that the truth run is indistinguishable from any of the particles, showing statistical consistency of the method.

A new South American network to study the atmospheric electric field and its variations related to geophysical phenomena

In this paper we present the capability of a new network of field mill sensors to monitor the atmospheric electric field at various locations in South America; we also show some early results. The main objective of the new network is to obtain the characteristic Universal Time diurnal curve of the atmospheric electric field in fair weather, known as the Carnegie curve. The Carnegie curve is closely related to the current sources flowing in the Global Atmospheric Electric Circuit so that another goal is the study of this relationship on various time scales (transient/monthly/seasonal/annual). Also, by operating this new network, we may also study departures of the Carnegie curve from its long term average value related to various solar, geophysical and atmospheric phenomena such as the solar cycle, solar flares and energetic charged particles, galactic cosmic rays, seismic activity and specific meteorological events. We then expect to have a better understanding of the influence of these phenomena on the Global Atmospheric Electric Circuit and its time-varying behavior.

Geophysical characterization of the complex dynamics of groundwater and seawater exchange in a highly stressed aquifer system linked to a coastal lagoon (SE Spain)

Anthropogenic pressure influences the two-way interactions between shallow aquifers and coastal lagoons. Aquifer overexploitation may lead to seawater intrusion, and aquifer recharge from rainfall plus irrigation may, in turn, increase the groundwater discharge into the lagoon. We analyse the evolution, since the 1950s up to the present, of the interactions between the Campo de Cartagena Quaternary aquifer and the Mar Menor coastal lagoon (SE Spain). This is a very heterogeneous and anisotropic detrital aquifer, where aquifer–lagoon interface has a very irregular geometry. Using electrical resistivity tomography, we clearly identified the freshwater–saltwater transition zone and detected areas affected by seawater intrusion. Severity of the intrusion was spatially variable and significantly related to the density of irrigation wells in 1950s–1960s, suggesting the role of groundwater overexploitation. We distinguish two different mechanisms by which water from the sea invades the land: (a) horizontal advance of the interface due to a wide exploitation area and (b) vertical rise (upconing) caused by local intensive pumping. In general, shallow parts of the geophysical profiles show higher electrical resistivity associated with freshwater mainly coming from irrigation return flows, with water resources mostly from deep confined aquifers and imported from Tagus river, 400 km north. This indicates a likely reversal of the former seawater intrusion process.

Time-lapse geophysical investigations over known archaeological features using electrical resistivity imaging and earth resistance

Electrical methods of geophysical survey are known to produce results that are hard to predict at different times of the year, and under differing weather conditions. This is a problem which can lead to misinterpretation of archaeological features under investigation. The dynamic relationship between a ‘natural’ soil matrix and an archaeological feature is a complex one, which greatly affects the success of the feature’s detection when using active electrical methods of geophysical survey. This study has monitored the gradual variation of measured resistivity over a selection of study areas. By targeting difficult to find, and often ‘missing’ electrical anomalies of known archaeological features, this study has increased the understanding of both the detection and interpretation capabilities of such geophysical surveys. A 16 month time-lapse study over 4 archaeological features has taken place to investigate the aforementioned detection problem across different soils and environments. In addition to the commonly used Twin-Probe earth resistance survey, electrical resistivity imaging (ERI) and quadrature electro-magnetic induction (EMI) were also utilised to explore the problem. Statistical analyses have provided a novel interpretation, which has yielded new insights into how the detection of archaeological features is influenced by the relationship between the target feature and the surrounding ‘natural’ soils. The study has highlighted both the complexity and previous misconceptions around the predictability of the electrical methods. The analysis has confirmed that each site provides an individual and nuanced situation, the variation clearly relating to the composition of the soils (particularly pore size) and the local weather history. The wide range of reasons behind survey success at each specific study site has been revealed. The outcomes have shown that a simplistic model of seasonality is not universally applicable to the electrical detection of archaeological features. This has led to the development of a method for quantifying survey success, enabling a deeper understanding of the unique way in which each site is affected by the interaction of local environmental and geological conditions.

Still searching for graves: an analytical strategy for interpreting geophysical data used in the search for “unmarked” graves

Searching for and mapping the physical extent of unmarked graves using geophysical techniques has proven difficult in many cases. The success of individual geophysical techniques for detecting graves depends on a site-by-site basis. Significantly, detection of graves often results from measured contrasts that are linked to the background soils rather than the type of archaeological feature associated with the grave. It is evident that investigation of buried remains should be considered within a 3D space as the variation in burial environment can be extremely varied through the grave. Within this paper, we demonstrate the need for a multi-method survey strategy to investigate unmarked graves, as applied at a “planned” but unmarked pauper’s cemetery. The outcome from this case study provides new insights into the strategy that is required at such sites. Perhaps the most significant conclusion is that unmarked graves are best understood in terms of characterization rather than identification. In this paper, we argue for a methodological approach that, while following the current trends to use multiple techniques, is fundamentally dependent on a structured approach to the analysis of the data. The ramifications of this case study illustrate the necessity of an integrated strategy to provide a more holistic understanding of unmarked graves that may help aid in management of these unseen but important aspects of our heritage. It is concluded that the search for graves is still a current debate and one that will be solved by methodological rather than technique-based arguments.

Establishing Lagrangian connections between observations within air masses crossing the Atlantic during the International Consortium for Atmospheric Research on Transport and Transformation experiment

The ITCT-Lagrangian-2K4 (Intercontinental Transport and Chemical Transformation) experiment was conceived with an aim to quantify the effects of photochemistry and mixing on the transformation of air masses in the free troposphere away from emissions. To this end, attempts were made to intercept and sample air masses several times during their journey across the North Atlantic using four aircraft based in New Hampshire (USA), Faial (Azores) and Creil (France). This article begins by describing forecasts from two Lagrangian models that were used to direct the aircraft into target air masses. A novel technique then identifies Lagrangian matches between flight segments. Two independent searches are conducted: for Lagrangian model matches and for pairs of whole air samples with matching hydrocarbon fingerprints. The information is filtered further by searching for matching hydrocarbon samples that are linked by matching trajectories. The quality of these "coincident matches'' is assessed using temperature, humidity and tracer observations. The technique pulls out five clear Lagrangian cases covering a variety of situations and these are examined in detail. The matching trajectories and hydrocarbon fingerprints are shown, and the downwind minus upwind differences in tracers are discussed.

Can climate trends be calculated from reanalysis data?

Several global quantities are computed from the ERA40 reanalysis for the period 1958-2001 and explored for trends. These are discussed in the context of changes to the global observing system. Temperature, integrated water vapor (IWV), and kinetic energy are considered. The ERA40 global mean temperature in the lower troposphere has a trend of +0.11 K per decade over the period of 1979-2001, which is slightly higher than the MSU measurements, but within the estimated error limit. For the period 1958 2001 the warming trend is 0.14 K per decade but this is likely to be an artifact of changes in the observing system. When this is corrected for, the warming trend is reduced to 0.10 K per decade. The global trend in IWV for the period 1979-2001 is +0.36 mm per decade. This is about twice as high as the trend determined from the Clausius-Clapeyron relation assuming conservation of relative humidity. It is also larger than results from free climate model integrations driven by the same observed sea surface temperature as used in ERA40. It is suggested that the large trend in IWV does not represent a genuine climate trend but an artifact caused by changes in the global observing system such as the use of SSM/I and more satellite soundings in later years. Recent results are in good agreement with GPS measurements. The IWV trend for the period 1958-2001 is still higher but reduced to +0.16 mm per decade when corrected for changes in the observing systems. Total kinetic energy shows an increasing global trend. Results from data assimilation experiments strongly suggest that this trend is also incorrect and mainly caused by the huge changes in the global observing system in 1979. When this is corrected for, no significant change in global kinetic energy from 1958 onward can be found.

A general-method for tracking analysis and its application to meteorological data

Recent interest in the validation of general circulation models (GCMs) has been devoted to objective methods. A small number of authors have used the direct synoptic identification of phenomena together with a statistical analysis to perform the objective comparison between various datasets. This paper describes a general method for performing the synoptic identification of phenomena that can be used for an objective analysis of atmospheric, or oceanographic, datasets obtained from numerical models and remote sensing. Methods usually associated with image processing have been used to segment the scene and to identify suitable feature points to represent the phenomena of interest. This is performed for each time level. A technique from dynamic scene analysis is then used to link the feature points to form trajectories. The method is fully automatic and should be applicable to a wide range of geophysical fields. An example will be shown of results obtained from this method using data obtained from a run of the Universities Global Atmospheric Modelling Project GCM.

A Tropospheric Assessment of the ERA-40, NCEP, and JRA-25 Global Reanalyses in the Polar Regions

The reliability of the global reanalyses in the polar regions is investigated. The overview stems from an April 2006 Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR) workshop on the performance of global reanalyses in high latitudes held at the British Antarctic Survey. Overall, the skill is much higher in the Arctic than the Antarctic, where the reanalyses are only reliable in the summer months prior to the modern satellite era. In the Antarctic, large circulation differences between the reanalyses are found primarily before 1979, when vast quantities of satellite sounding data started to be assimilated. Specifically for ERA-40, this data discontinuity creates a marked jump in Antarctic snow accumulation, especially at high elevations. In the Arctic, the largest differences are related to the reanalyses depiction of clouds and their associated radiation impacts; ERA-40 captures the cloud variability much better than NCEP1 and JRA-25, but the ERA-40 and JRA-25 clouds are too optically thin for shortwave radiation. To further contrast the reanalyses skill, cyclone tracking results are presented. In the Southern Hemisphere, cyclonic activity is markedly different between the reanalyses, where there are few matched cyclones prior to 1979. In comparison, only some of the weaker cyclones are not matched in the Northern Hemisphere from 1958-2001, again indicating the superior skill in this hemisphere. Although this manuscript focuses on deficiencies in the reanalyses, it is important to note that they are a powerful tool for climate studies in both polar regions when used with a recognition of their limitations.

A new feedback on climate change from the hydrological cycle

An intensification of the hydrological cycle is a likely consequence of global warming. But changes in the hydrological cycle could affect sea-surface temperature by modifying diffusive ocean heat transports. We investigate this mechanism by studying a coupled general circulation model sensitivity experiment in which the hydrological cycle is artificially amplified. We find that the amplified hydrological cycle depresses sea-surface temperature by enhancing ocean heat uptake in low latitudes. We estimate that a 10% increase in the hydrological cycle will contribute a basin-scale sea-surface temperature decrease of around 0.1°C away from high latitudes, with larger decreases locally. We conclude that an intensified hydrological cycle is likely to contribute a weak negative feedback to anthropogenic climate change.