Geochemical changes recorded in Lynch's Crater, Northeastern Australia, over the past 50 ka

There are many geochemical reconstructions of environmental change in the mid and high latitudes but relatively few in the tropical latitudes, despite their considerable potential for reconstructing environmental processes that cannot be identified using more traditional proxies. Here we present one reconstruction of environmental change for the tropics. This reconstruction covers the past 50 ka using a suite of geochemical data from the high-resolution sequence of Lynch's Crater in northeast Queensland, Australia, a region highly sensitive to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) activity. The 23 major oxides and trace elements measured could be summarised by extracting three axes using principal components analysis (accounting for 72% of the variability). The data indicate that the greatest variability in the geochemical data accounted for erosional activity within the catchment that was associated with past changes in the frequency of ENSO activity (though this was less sensitive during wetter periods, probably as a result of buffering by high vegetation cover). The remaining variability was largely explained by elements that form complexes with organic compounds (e.g., humic acids) and those that are important nutrients for specific vegetation types (and therefore a measure of vegetation distribution). For more detailed reconstructions, further work is required to disentangle the complex controls of elements within sedimentary sequences.

European storminess and associated circulation weather types: future changes deduced from a multi-model ensemble of GCM simulations

A range of possible changes in the frequency and characteristics of European wind storms under future climate conditions was investigated on the basis of a multi-model ensemble of 9 coupled global climate model (GCM) simulations for the 20th and 21st centuries following the IPCC SRES A1B scenario. A multi-model approach allowed an estimation of the (un)certainties of the climate change signals. General changes in large-scale atmospheric flow were analysed, the occurrence of wind storms was quantified, and atmospheric features associated with wind storm events were considered. Identified storm days were investigated according to atmospheric circulation, associated pressure patterns, cyclone tracks and wind speed patterns. Validation against reanalysis data revealed that the GCMs are in general capable of realistically reproducing characteristics of European circulation weather types (CWTs) and wind storms. Results are given with respect to frequency of occurrence, storm-associated flow conditions, cyclone tracks and specific wind speed patterns. Under anthropogenic climate change conditions (SRES A1B scenario), increased frequency of westerly flow during winter is detected over the central European investigation area. In the ensemble mean, the number of detected wind storm days increases between 19 and 33% for 2 different measures of storminess, only 1 GCM revealed less storm days. The increased number of storm days detected in most models is disproportionately high compared to the related CWT changes. The mean intensity of cyclones associated with storm days in the ensemble mean increases by about 10 (±10)% in the Eastern Atlantic, near the British Isles and in the North Sea. Accordingly, wind speeds associated with storm events increase significantly by about 5 (±5)% over large parts of central Europe, mainly on days with westerly flow. The basic conclusions of this work remain valid if different ensemble contructions are considered, leaving out an outlier model or including multiple runs of one particular model.

Statistical uncertainty of changes in winter storms over the North Atlantic and Europe in an ensemble of transient climate simulations

Winter storms are among the most important natural hazards affecting Europe. We quantify changes in storm frequency and intensity over the North Atlantic and Europe under future climate scenarios in terms of return periods (RPs) considering uncertainties due to both sampling and methodology. RPs of North Atlantic storms' minimum central pressure (CP) and maximum vorticity (VOR) remain unchanged by 2100 for both the A1B and A2 scenarios compared to the present climate. Whereas shortened RPs for VOR of all intensities are detected for the area between British Isles/North-Sea/western Europe as early as 2040. However, the changes in storm VOR RP may be unrealistically large: a present day 50 (20) year event becomes approximately a 9 (5.5) year event in both A1B and A2 scenarios by 2100. The detected shortened RPs of storms implies a higher risk of occurrence of damaging wind events over Europe.

Ultralow-frequency modulation of whistler-mode wave growth

Measurements from ground-based magnetometers and riometers at auroral latitudes have demonstrated that energetic (~30-300keV) electron precipitation can be modulated in the presence of magnetic field oscillations at ultra-low frequencies. It has previously been proposed that an ultra-low frequency (ULF) wave would modulate field and plasma properties near the equatorial plane, thus modifying the growth rates of whistler-mode waves. In turn, the resulting whistler-mode waves would mediate the pitch-angle scattering of electrons resulting in ionospheric precipitation. In this paper, we investigate this hypothesis by quantifying the changes to the linear growth rate expected due to a slow change in the local magnetic field strength for parameters typical of the equatorial region around 6.6RE radial distance. To constrain our study, we determine the largest possible ULF wave amplitudes from measurements of the magnetic field at geosynchronous orbit. Using nearly ten years of observations from two satellites, we demonstrate that the variation in magnetic field strength due to oscillations at 2mHz does not exceed ±10% of the background field. Modifications to the plasma density and temperature anisotropy are estimated using idealised models. For low temperature anisotropy, there is little change in the whistler-mode growth rates even for the largest ULF wave amplitude. Only for large temperature anisotropies can whistler-mode growth rates be modulated sufficiently to account for the changes in electron precipitation measured by riometers at auroral latitudes.

Analysis of frequency and intensity of European winter storm events from a multi-model perspective, at synoptic and regional scales

This study focuses on the analysis of winter (October-November-December-January-February-March; ONDJFM) storm events and their changes due to increased anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations over Europe. In order to assess uncertainties that are due to model formulation, 4 regional climate models (RCMs) with 5 high resolution experiments, and 4 global general circulation models (GCMs) are considered. Firstly, cyclone systems as synoptic scale processes in winter are investigated, as they are a principal cause of the occurrence of extreme, damage-causing wind speeds. This is achieved by use of an objective cyclone identification and tracking algorithm applied to GCMs. Secondly, changes in extreme near-surface wind speeds are analysed. Based on percentile thresholds, the studied extreme wind speed indices allow a consistent analysis over Europe that takes systematic deviations of the models into account. Relative changes in both intensity and frequency of extreme winds and their related uncertainties are assessed and related to changing patterns of extreme cyclones. A common feature of all investigated GCMs is a reduced track density over central Europe under climate change conditions, if all systems are considered. If only extreme (i.e. the strongest 5%) cyclones are taken into account, an increasing cyclone activity for western parts of central Europe is apparent; however, the climate change signal reveals a reduced spatial coherency when compared to all systems, which exposes partially contrary results. With respect to extreme wind speeds, significant positive changes in intensity and frequency are obtained over at least 3 and 20% of the European domain under study (35–72°N and 15°W–43°E), respectively. Location and extension of the affected areas (up to 60 and 50% of the domain for intensity and frequency, respectively), as well as levels of changes (up to +15 and +200% for intensity and frequency, respectively) are shown to be highly dependent on the driving GCM, whereas differences between RCMs when driven by the same GCM are relatively small.

Future changes in atmospheric rivers and their implications for winter flooding in Britain

Within the warm conveyor belt of extra-tropical cyclones, atmospheric rivers (ARs) are the key synoptic features which deliver the majority of poleward water vapour transport, and are associated with episodes of heavy and prolonged rainfall. ARs are responsible for many of the largest winter floods in the mid-latitudes resulting in major socioeconomic losses; for example, the loss from United Kingdom (UK) flooding in summer/winter 2012 is estimated to be about $1.6 billion in damages. Given the well-established link between ARs and peak river flows for the present day, assessing how ARs could respond under future climate projections is of importance in gauging future impacts from flooding. We show that North Atlantic ARs are projected to become stronger and more numerous in the future scenarios of multiple simulations from five state-of-the-art global climate models (GCMs) in the fifth Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The increased water vapour transport in projected ARs implies a greater risk of higher rainfall totals and therefore larger winter floods in Britain, with increased AR frequency leading to more flood episodes. In the high emissions scenario (RCP8.5) for 2074–2099 there is an approximate doubling of AR frequency in the five GCMs. Our results suggest that the projected change in ARs is predominantly a thermodynamic response to warming resulting from anthropogenic radiative forcing.

The resting-state neurovascular coupling relationship: rapid changes in spontaneous neural activity in the somatosensory cortex are associated with haemodynamic fluctuations that resemble stimulus-evoked haemodynamics

Although promise exists for patterns of resting-state blood oxygen level-dependent (BOLD) functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) brain connectivity to be used as biomarkers of early brain pathology, a full understanding of the nature of the relationship between neural activity and spontaneous fMRI BOLD fluctuations is required before such data can be correctly interpreted. To investigate this issue, we combined electrophysiological recordings of rapid changes in multi-laminar local field potentials from the somatosensory cortex of anaesthetized rats with concurrent two-dimensional optical imaging spectroscopy measurements of resting-state haemodynamics that underlie fluctuations in the BOLD fMRI signal. After neural ‘events’ were identified, their time points served to indicate the start of an epoch in the accompanying haemodynamic fluctuations. Multiple epochs for both neural ‘events’ and the accompanying haemodynamic fluctuations were averaged. We found that the averaged epochs of resting-state haemodynamic fluctuations taken after neural ‘events’ closely resembled the temporal profile of stimulus-evoked cortical haemodynamics. Furthermore, we were able to demonstrate that averaged epochs of resting-state haemodynamic fluctuations resembling the temporal profile of stimulus-evoked haemodynamics could also be found after peaks in neural activity filtered into specific electroencephalographic frequency bands (theta, alpha, beta, and gamma). This technique allows investigation of resting-state neurovascular coupling using methodologies that are directly comparable to that developed for investigating stimulus-evoked neurovascular responses.

Simulation of late-twenty-first-century changes in wintertime atmospheric circulation over Europe due to anthropogenic causes

Evidence is presented, based on an ensemble of climate change scenarios performed with a global general circulation model of the atmosphere with high horizontal resolution over Europe, to suggest that the end-of-century anthropogenic climate change over the North Atlantic--European region strongly projects onto the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation during wintertime. It is reflected in a doubling of the residence frequency of the climate system in the associated circulation regime, in agreement with the nonlinear climate perspective. The strong increase in the amplitude of the response, compared to coarse-resolution coupled model studies, suggests that improved model representation of regional climate is needed to achieve more reliable projections of anthropogenic climate change on European climate.

First look at changes in flood hazard in the inter-sectoral impact model intercomparison project ensemble

Climate change due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of precipitation events, which is likely to affect the probability of flooding into the future. In this paper we use river flow simulations from nine global hydrology and land surface models to explore uncertainties in the potential impacts of climate change on flood hazard at global scale. As an indicator of flood hazard we looked at changes in the 30-y return level of 5-d average peak flows under representative concentration pathway RCP8.5 at the end of this century. Not everywhere does climate change result in an increase in flood hazard: decreases in the magnitude and frequency of the 30-y return level of river flow occur at roughly one-third (20-45%) of the global land grid points, particularly in areas where the hydro-graph is dominated by the snowmelt flood peak in spring. In most model experiments, however, an increase in flooding frequency was found in more than half of the grid points. The current 30-y flood peak is projected to occur in more than 1 in 5 y across 5-30% of land grid points. The large-scale patterns of change are remarkably consistent among impact models and even the driving climate models, but at local scale and in individual river basins there can be disagreement even on the sign of change, indicating large modeling uncertainty which needs to be taken into account in local adaptation studies.

Don’t trust your poll lead: how public opinion changes during referendum campaigns

Politicians call (or call for) referendums with increasing frequency. But how can they know they will win? Looking at the polls is not enough: opinion during referendum campaigns is often volatile. But this chapter shows that there are nevertheless some recurring patterns that allow us to make reasonable predictions in most cases.

Ionospheric and geomagnetic responses to changes in IMF B_Z: a superposed epoch study

Superposed epoch studies have been carried out in order to determine the ionospheric response at mid-latitudes to southward turnings of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). This is compared with the geomagnetic response, as seen in the indices K p, AE and Dst. The solar wind, IMF and geomagnetic data used were hourly averages from the years 1967–1989 and thus cover a full 22-year cycle in the solar magnetic field. These data were divided into subsets, determined by the magnitudes of the southward turnings and the concomitant increase in solar wind pressure. The superposed epoch studies were carried out using the time of the southward turning as time zero. The response of the mid-latitude ionosphere is studied by looking at the F-layer critical frequencies, f o F2, from hourly soundings by the Slough ionosonde and their deviation from the monthly median values, δf o F2. For the southward turnings with a change in B z of δB z > 11.5 nT accompanied by a solar wind dynamic pressure P exceeding 5 nPa, the F region critical frequency, f o F2, shows a marked decrease, reaching a minimum value about 20 h after the southward turning. This recovers to pre-event values over the subsequent 24 h, on average. The Dst index shows the classic storm-time decrease to about −60 nT. Four days later, the index has still to fully recover and is at about −25 nT. Both the K p and AE indices show rises before the southward turnings, when the IMF is strongly northward but the solar wind dynamic pressure is enhanced. The average AE index does register a clear isolated pulse (averaging 650 nT for 2 h, compared with a background peak level of near 450 nT at these times) showing enhanced energy deposition at high latitudes in substorms but, like K p, remains somewhat enhanced for several days, even after the average IMF has returned to zero after 1 day. This AE background decays away over several days as the Dst index recovers, indicating that there is some contamination of the currents observed at the AE stations by the continuing enhanced equatorial ring current. For data averaged over all seasons, the critical frequencies are depressed at Slough by 1.3 MHz, which is close to the lower decile of the overall distribution of δf o Fl values. Taking 30-day periods around summer and winter solstice, the largest depression is 1.6 and 1.2 MHz, respectively. This seasonal dependence is confirmed by a similar study for a Southern Hemisphere station, Argentine Island, giving peak depressions of 1.8 MHz and 0.5 MHz for summer and winter. For the subset of turnings where δB z > 11.5 nT and P ≤ 5 nPa, the response of the geomagnetic indices is similar but smaller, while the change in δf o F2 has all but disappeared. This confirms that the energy deposited at high latitudes, which leads to the geomagnetic and ionospheric disturbances following a southward turning of the IMF, increases with the energy density (dynamic pressure) of the solar wind flow. The magnitude of all responses are shown to depend on δB z . At Slough, the peak depression always occurs when Slough rotates into the noon sector. The largest ionospheric response is for southward turnings seen between 15–21 UT.

Characterising phosphorus and nitrate inputs to a rural river using high-frequency concentration-flow relationships

The total reactive phosphorus (TRP) and nitrate concentrations of the River Enborne, southern England, were monitored at hourly interval between January 2010 and December 2011. The relationships between these high-frequency nutrient concentration signals and flow were used to infer changes in nutrient source and dynamics through the annual cycle and each individual storm event, by studying hysteresis patterns. TRP concentrations exhibited strong dilution patterns with increasing flow, and predominantly clockwise hysteresis through storm events. Despite the Enborne catchment being relatively rural for southern England, TRP inputs were dominated by constant, non-rain-related inputs from sewage treatment works (STW) for the majority of the year, producing the highest phosphorus concentrations through the spring–summer growing season. At higher river flows, the majority of the TRP load was derived from within-channel remobilisation of phosphorus from the bed sediment, much of which was also derived from STW inputs. Therefore, future phosphorus mitigation measures should focus on STW improvements. Agricultural diffuse TRP inputs were only evident during storms in the May of each year, probably relating to manure application to land. The nitrate concentration–flow relationship produced a series of dilution curves, indicating major inputs from groundwater and to a lesser extent STW. Significant diffuse agricultural inputs with anticlockwise hysteresis trajectories were observed during the first major storms of the winter period. The simultaneous investigation of high-frequency time series data, concentration–flow relationships and hysteresis behaviour through multiple storms for both phosphorus and nitrate offers a simple and innovative approach for providing new insights into nutrient sources and dynamics.

Long-latency reductions in gamma power predict hemodynamic changes that underlie the negative BOLD signal

Studiesthat use prolonged periods of sensory stimulation report associations between regional reductions in neural activity and negative blood oxygenation level-dependent (BOLD) signaling. However, the neural generators of the negative BOLD response remain to be characterized. Here, we use single-impulse electrical stimulation of the whisker pad in the anesthetized rat to identify components of the neural response that are related to “negative” hemodynamic changes in the brain. Laminar multiunit activity and local field potential recordings of neural activity were performed concurrently withtwo-dimensional optical imaging spectroscopy measuring hemodynamic changes. Repeated measurements over multiple stimulation trials revealed significant variations in neural responses across session and animal datasets. Within this variation, we found robust long-latency decreases (300 and 2000 ms after stimulus presentation) in gammaband power (30 – 80 Hz) in the middle-superficial cortical layers in regions surrounding the activated whisker barrel cortex. This reduction in gamma frequency activity was associated with corresponding decreases in the hemodynamic responses that drive the negative BOLD signal. These findings suggest a close relationship between BOLD responses and neural events that operate over time scales that outlast the initiating sensory stimulus, and provide important insights into the neurophysiological basis of negative neuroimaging signals.

Changes in music tempo entrain movement related brain activity

The neural mechanisms of music listening and appreciation are not yet completely understood. Based on the apparent relationship between the beats per minute (tempo) of music and the desire to move (for example feet tapping) induced while listening to that music it is hypothesised that musical tempo may evoke movement related activity in the brain. Participants are instructed to listen, without moving, to a large range of musical pieces spanning a range of styles and tempos during an electroencephalogram (EEG) experiment. Event-related desynchronisation (ERD) in the EEG is observed to correlate significantly with the variance of the tempo of the musical stimuli. This suggests that the dynamics of the beat of the music may induce movement related brain activity in the motor cortex. Furthermore, significant correlations are observed between EEG activity in the alpha band over the motor cortex and the bandpower of the music in the same frequency band over time. This relationship is observed to correlate with the strength of the ERD, suggesting entrainment of motor cortical activity relates to increased ERD strength

Future changes in the Western North Pacific tropical cyclone activity projected by a multidecadal simulation with a 16-km global atmospheric GCM

How tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the northwestern Pacific might change in a future climate is assessed using multidecadal Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP)-style and time-slice simulations with the ECMWF Integrated Forecast System (IFS) at 16-km and 125-km global resolution. Both models reproduce many aspects of the present-day TC climatology and variability well, although the 16-km IFS is far more skillful in simulating the full intensity distribution and genesis locations, including their changes in response to El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Both IFS models project a small change in TC frequency at the end of the twenty-first century related to distinct shifts in genesis locations. In the 16-km IFS, this shift is southward and is likely driven by the southeastward penetration of the monsoon trough/subtropical high circulation system and the southward shift in activity of the synoptic-scale tropical disturbances in response to the strengthening of deep convective activity over the central equatorial Pacific in a future climate. The 16-km IFS also projects about a 50% increase in the power dissipation index, mainly due to significant increases in the frequency of the more intense storms, which is comparable to the natural variability in the model. Based on composite analysis of large samples of supertyphoons, both the development rate and the peak intensities of these storms increase in a future climate, which is consistent with their tendency to develop more to the south, within an environment that is thermodynamically more favorable for faster development and higher intensities. Coherent changes in the vertical structure of supertyphoon composites show system-scale amplification of the primary and secondary circulations with signs of contraction, a deeper warm core, and an upward shift in the outflow layer and the frequency of the most intense updrafts. Considering the large differences in the projections of TC intensity change between the 16-km and 125-km IFS, this study further emphasizes the need for high-resolution modeling in assessing potential changes in TC activity.