CAMCR: Computer assisted mixture model analysis for capture-recapture count data

Population size estimation with discrete or nonparametric mixture models is considered, and reliable ways of construction of the nonparametric mixture model estimator are reviewed and set into perspective. Construction of the maximum likelihood estimator of the mixing distribution is done for any number of components up to the global nonparametric maximum likelihood bound using the EM algorithm. In addition, the estimators of Chao and Zelterman are considered with some generalisations of Zelterman’s estimator. All computations are done with CAMCR, a special software developed for population size estimation with mixture models. Several examples and data sets are discussed and the estimators illustrated. Problems using the mixture model-based estimators are highlighted.

Estimating the hidden number of scrapie affected holdings in great Britain using a simple, truncated count model allowing for heterogeneity

None of the current surveillance streams monitoring the presence of scrapie in Great Britain provide a comprehensive and unbiased estimate of the prevalence of the disease at the holding level. Previous work to estimate the under-ascertainment adjusted prevalence of scrapie in Great Britain applied multiple-list capture-recapture methods. The enforcement of new control measures on scrapie-affected holdings in 2004 has stopped the overlapping between surveillance sources and, hence, the application of multiple-list capture-recapture models. Alternative methods, still under the capture-recapture methodology, relying on repeated entries in one single list have been suggested in these situations. In this article, we apply one-list capture-recapture approaches to data held on the Scrapie Notifications Database to estimate the undetected population of scrapie-affected holdings with clinical disease in Great Britain for the years 2002, 2003, and 2004. For doing so, we develop a new diagnostic tool for indication of heterogeneity as well as a new understanding of the Zelterman and Chao's lower bound estimators to account for potential unobserved heterogeneity. We demonstrate that the Zelterman estimator can be viewed as a maximum likelihood estimator for a special, locally truncated Poisson likelihood equivalent to a binomial likelihood. This understanding allows the extension of the Zelterman approach by means of logistic regression to include observed heterogeneity in the form of covariates-in case studied here, the holding size and country of origin. Our results confirm the presence of substantial unobserved heterogeneity supporting the application of our two estimators. The total scrapie-affected holding population in Great Britain is around 300 holdings per year. None of the covariates appear to inform the model significantly.

Numerical abundance of invasive ants and monopolisation of exudate-producing resources - a chicken and egg situation

1. Invasive ants commonly reach abnormally high abundances and have severe impacts on the ecosystems they invade. Current invasion theory recognises that not only negative interactions, such as natural enemy release, but positive interactions, such as facilitation, are important in causing this increased abundance. 2. For invasive ants, facilitation can occur through mutualism with exudate-producing plants and insects. To obtain such partnerships, however, invaders must first displace native ants, whose communities are highly structured around such resources. 3. By manipulating the abundance of an invasive ant relative to a native, we show that a minimum threshold abundance exists for invasive ants to monopolise exudate-producing resources. In addition, we show that behavioural dominance is context dependent and varies with spatial location and numerical abundance. 4. Thus, we suggest a 'facilitation-threshold' hypothesis of ant invasion, whereby a minimum abundance of invasive ants is required before facilitation and behavioural dominance can drive abundance rapidly upwards through positive feedback.

Equivalence of truncated count mixture distributions and mixtures of truncated count distributions

This article is about modeling count data with zero truncation. A parametric count density family is considered. The truncated mixture of densities from this family is different from the mixture of truncated densities from the same family. Whereas the former model is more natural to formulate and to interpret, the latter model is theoretically easier to treat. It is shown that for any mixing distribution leading to a truncated mixture, a (usually different) mixing distribution can be found so. that the associated mixture of truncated densities equals the truncated mixture, and vice versa. This implies that the likelihood surfaces for both situations agree, and in this sense both models are equivalent. Zero-truncated count data models are used frequently in the capture-recapture setting to estimate population size, and it can be shown that the two Horvitz-Thompson estimators, associated with the two models, agree. In particular, it is possible to achieve strong results for mixtures of truncated Poisson densities, including reliable, global construction of the unique NPMLE (nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator) of the mixing distribution, implying a unique estimator for the population size. The benefit of these results lies in the fact that it is valid to work with the mixture of truncated count densities, which is less appealing for the practitioner but theoretically easier. Mixtures of truncated count densities form a convex linear model, for which a developed theory exists, including global maximum likelihood theory as well as algorithmic approaches. Once the problem has been solved in this class, it might readily be transformed back to the original problem by means of an explicitly given mapping. Applications of these ideas are given, particularly in the case of the truncated Poisson family.

Fecal microbiota in patients receiving enteral feeding are highly variable and may be altered in those who develop diarrhea

Background: The pathogenesis of diarrhea in patients receiving enteral feeding includes colonic water secretion, antibiotic prescription, and enteropathogenic colonization, each of which involves an interaction with the gastrointestinal microbiota. Objective: The objective was to investigate temporal changes in the concentrations of fecal microbiota and short-chain fatty acids (SCFAs) in patients starting 14-d of enteral feeding and to compare these changes between patients who do and do not develop diarrhea. Design: Twenty patients starting exclusive nasogastric enteral feeding were monitored for 14 d. Fecal samples were collected at the start, middle, and end of this period and were analyzed for major bacterial groups by using culture independent fluorescence in situ hybridization and for SCFAs by using gas-liquid chromatography. Results: Although no significant changes in fecal microbiota or SCFAs were observed during enteral feeding, stark alterations occurred within individual patients. Ten patients (50%) developed diarrhea, and these patients had significantly higher concentrations of clostridia (P = 0.026) and lower concentrations (P = 0.069) and proportions (P = 0.029) of bifidobacteria. Patients with and without diarrhea had differences in the proportion of bifidobacteria (median: 0.4% and 3.7%; interquartile range: 0.8 compared with 4.3; P = 0.035) and clostridia (median: 10.4% and 3.7%; interquartile range: 14.7 compared with 7.0; P = 0.063), respectively, even at the start of enteral feeding. Patients who developed diarrhea had higher concentrations of total fecal SCFAs (P = 0.044), acetate (P = 0.029), and butyrate (P = 0.055). Conclusion: Intestinal dysbiosis occurs in patients who develop diarrhea during enteral feeding and may be involved in its pathogenesis. Am J Clin Nutr 2009; 89: 240-7.

Microbial species involved in production of 1,2-sn-diacylglycerol and effects of phosphatidylcholine on human fecal microbiota

1,2-sn-Diacylglycerols (DAGs) are activators of protein kinase C (PKQ, which is involved in the regulation of colonic mucosal proliferation. Extracellular DAG has been shown to stimulate the growth of cancer cell lines in vitro and may therefore play an important role in tumor promotion. DAG has been detected in human fecal extracts and is thought to be of microbial origin. Hitherto, no attempts have been made to identify the predominant fecal bacterial species involved in its production. We therefore used anaerobic batch culture systems to determine whether fecal bacteria could utilize phosphatidylcholine (0.5% [wt/vol]) to produce DAG. Production was found to be dependent upon the presence of the substrate and was enhanced in the presence of high concentrations of deoxycholate (5 and 10 mM) in the growth medium. Moreover, its production increased with the pH, and large inter- and intraindividual variations were observed between cultures seeded with inocula from different individuals. Clostridia and Escherichia coli multiplied in the fermentation systems, indicating their involvement in phosphatidylcholine metabolism. On the other hand, there was a significant decrease in the number of Bifidobacterium spp. in the presence of phosphatidylcholine. Pure-culture experiments showed that 10 of the 12 strains yielding the highest DAG levels (>50 nmol/ml) were isolated from batch culture enrichments run at pH 8.5. We found that the strains capable of producing large amounts of DAG were predominantly Clostridium bifermentans (8 of 12), followed by Escherichia coli (2 of 12). Interestingly, one DAG-producing strain was Bifidobacterium infantis, which is often considered a beneficial gut microorganism. Our results have provided further evidence that fecal bacteria can produce DAG and that specific bacterial groups are involved in this process. Future strategies to reduce DAG formation in the gut should target these species.

Modulation of the fecal microflora profile and immune function by a novel trans-galactooligosaccharide mixture (B-GOS) in healthy elderly volunteers

Background: Aging is associated with reduced numbers of beneficial colonic bifidobacteria and impaired immunity. Galactooligosaccharides (GOSs) stimulate the growth of bifidobacteria in younger adults, but little is known about their effects in the elderly and their immunomodulatory capacity. Objective: We assessed the effect of a prebiotic GOS mixture (B-GOS) on immune function and fecal microflora composition in healthy elderly subjects. Design: In a double-blind, placebo-controlled, crossover study, 44 elderly subjects were randomly assigned to receive either a placebo or the B-GOS treatment (5.5 g/d). Subjects consumed the treatments for 10 wk, and then went through a 4-wk washout period, before switching to the other treatment for the final 10 wk. Blood and fecal samples were collected at the beginning, middle (5 wk), and end of the test period. Predominant bacterial groups were quantified, and phagocytosis, natural killer (NK) cell activity, cytokine production, plasma cholesterol, and HDL cholesterol were measured. Results: B-GOS significantly increased the numbers of beneficial bacteria, especially bifidobacteria, at the expense of less beneficial groups compared with the baseline and placebo. Significant increases in phagocytosis, NK cell activity, and the production of antiinflammatory cytokine interleukin-10 (IL-10) and significant reduction in the production of proinflammatory cytokines (IL-6, IL-1 beta , and tumor necrosis factor-alpha) were also observed. B-GOS exerted no effects on total cholesterol or HDL-cholesterol production, however. Conclusions: B-GOS administration to healthy elderly persons resulted in positive effects on both the microflora composition and the immune response. Therefore, B-GOS may be a useful dietary candidate for the enhancement of gastrointestinal health and immune function in elderly persons. Am J Clin Nutr 2008; 88: 1438-46.

Diet, fecal water, and colon cancer - development of a biomarker

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is a leading cause of cancer incidence worldwide. Lifestyle factors, especially dietary intake, affect the risk of CRC development. Suitable risk biomarkers are required in order to assess the effect that specific dietary components have on CRC risk. The relationship between dietary intake and indicators of fecal water activity has been assessed using cell and animal models as well as human studies. This review summarizes the literature on fecal water and dietary components with a view to establishing further the potential role of fecal water as a source of CRC risk biomarkers. The literature indicates that fecal water activity markers are affected by specific dietary components linked with CRC risk: red meat, saturated fats, bile acids, and fatty acids are associated with an increase in fecal water toxicity, while the converse appears to be true for calcium, probiotics, and prebiotics. However, it must be acknowledged that the study of fecal water is still in its infancy and a number of issues need to be addressed before its usefulness can be truly gauged.

Fecal water as a non-invasive biomarker in nutritional intervention: comparison of preparation methods and refinement of different endpoints

The assessment of cellular effects by the aqueous phase of human feces (fecal water, FW) is a useful biomarker approach to study cancer risks and protective activities of food. In order to refine and develop the biomarker, different protocols of preparing FW were compared. Fecal waters were prepared by 3 methods: (A) direct centrifugation; (B) extraction of feces in PBS before centrifugation; and (C) centrifugation of lyophilized and reconstituted feces. Genotoxicity was determined in colon cells using the Comet assay. Selected samples were investigated for additional parameters related to carcinogenesis. Two of 7 FWs obtained by methods A and B were similarly genotoxic. Method B, however, yielded higher volumes of FW, allowing sterile filtration for long-term culture experiments. Four of 7 samples were non-genotoxic when prepared according to all 3 methods. FW from lyophilized feces and from fresh samples were equally genotoxic. FWs modulated cytotoxicity, paracellular permeability, and invasion, independent of their genotoxicity. All 3 methods of FW preparation can be used to assess genotoxicity. The higher volumes of FWobtained by preparation method B greatly enhance the perspectives of measuring different types of biological parameters and using these to disclose activities related to cancer development.

In vitro fermentation of oat bran obtained by debranning with a mixed culture of human fecal bacteria

The prebiotic potential of oat samples was investigated by in vitro shaker-flask anaerobic fermentations with human fecal cultures. The oat bran fraction was obtained by debranning and was compared with other carbon sources such as whole oat flour, glucose, and fructo-oligosaccharide. The oat bran fraction showed a decrease in culturable anaerobes and clostridia and an increase in bifidobacteria and lactobacilli populations. A similar pattern was observed in fructo-oligosaccharide. Butyrate production was higher in oat bran compared to glucose and similar to that in fructo-oligosaccharide. Production of propionate was higher in the two oat media than in fructo-oligosaccharide and glucose, which can be used as energy source by the liver. This study suggests that the oat bran fraction obtained by debranning is digested by the gut ecosystem and increases the population of beneficial bacteria in the indigenous gut microbiota. This medium also provides an energy source preferred by colonocytes when it is metabolized by the gut flora.

In vitro fermentation by human fecal microflora of wheat arabinoxylans

The fermentation of three arabinoxylan (AX) fractions from wheat by the human fecal microflora was investigated in vitro. Three AX fractions, with average molecular masses of 354, 278, and 66 kDa, were incorporated into miniature-scale batch cultures (with inulin as a positive prebiotic control) with feces from three healthy donors, aged 23-29. Microflora changes were monitored by the culture-independent technique, fluorescent in situ hybridization, and short chain fatty acid (SCFA) and lactic acid production were measured by high-performance liquid chromatography. Total cell numbers increased significantly in all treated cultures, and the fermentation of AX was associated with a proliferation of the bifidobacteria, lactobacilli, and eubacteria groups. Smaller but statistically significant increases in bacteroides and clostridia groups were also observed. All AX fractions had comparable bifidogenic impacts on the microflora at 5 and 12 h, but the 66 kDa AX was particularly selective for lactobacilli. Eubacteria increased significantly on all AX fractions, particularly on 66 kDa AX. As previously reported, inulin gave a selective increase in bifidobacteria. All supplemented cultures showed significant rises in total SCFA production, with a particularly high proportion of butyric acid being produced from AX fermentation. The prebiotic effect, that is, the selectivity of AX for bifidobacteria and lactobacilli groups, increased as the molecular mass of the AX decreased. This suggests that molecular mass may influence the fermentation of AX in the colon.

Effect of fecal water on an in vitro model of colonic mucosal barrier function

Fecal water (FW) has been shown to exert, in cultured cells, cytotoxic and genotoxic effects that have implications for colorectal cancer (CRC) risk. We have investigated a further biological activity of FW, namely, the ability to affect gap junctions in CACO2 cell monolayers as an index of mucosal barrier function, which is known to be disrupted in cancer. FW samples fi-om healthy, free-living, European subjects that were divided into two broad age groups, adult (40 +/- 9.7 yr; n = 53) and elderly (76 +/- 7.5 yr; n = 55) were tested for effects on gap junction using the transepithelial resistance (TER) assay. Overall, treatment of CACO2 cells with FW samples fi-om adults increased TER (+ 4 %), whereas FW from elderly subjects decreased TER (-5%); the difference between the two groups was significant (P < 0.05). We also measured several components of FW potentially associated with modulation of TER, namely, short-chain fatty acid (SCFA) and ammonia. SCFAs (propionic, acetic, and n-butyric) were significantly lower in the elderly population (-30%, -35%, and -21%, respectively, all P pound 0.01). We consider that FW modulation of in vitro epithelial barrier function is a potentially useful noninvasive biomarker, but it requires further validation to establish its relationship to CRC risk.

Effects of probiotic or prebiotic supplemented milk formulas on fecal microbiota composition of infants

The aim of the study was to evaluate whether supplementation of milk-formulas with prebiotic fructooligosaccharides or a probiotic, Lactobacillus johnsonii La1 (La1), could modulate the composition of the fecal microbiota of formula-fed infants, compared to breastfed (BF) infants. Ninety infants close to 4 months of age were randomized into one of three groups to be blindly assigned to receive for 13 weeks: a) an infant formula (Control), b) the same formula with fructo-oligosaccharides (Prebio), or c) with La1 (Probio). At the end of this period, all infants received the control formula for 2 additional weeks. Twenty-six infants, breastfed throughout the study, were recruited to form group BF. Fecal samples were obtained upon enrolment and after 7 and 15 weeks. Bacterial populations were assessed with classical culture techniques and fluorescent in situ hybridisation (FISH). Seventy-six infants completed the study. On enrolment, higher counts of Bifidobacterium and Lactobacillus and lower counts of enterobacteria were observed in BF compared to the formula-fed infants; these differences tended to disappear at weeks 7 and 15. No major differences for Clostridium, Bacteroides or Enterococcus were observed between the groups or along the follow up. Probio increased fecal Lactobacillus counts (P<0.001); 88% of the infants in this group excreted live La1 in their stools at week 7 but only 17% at week 15. Increased Bifidobacterium counts were observed at week 7 in the 3 formula groups, similar to BF infants. These results confirm the presence of higher counts of bifidobacteria and lactobacilli in the microbiota of BF infants compared to formula-fed infants before dietary diversification, and that La1 survives in the infant digestive tract.

CAMCR: Computer-Assisted Mixture model analysis for Capture–Recapture count data

Population size estimation with discrete or nonparametric mixture models is considered, and reliable ways of construction of the nonparametric mixture model estimator are reviewed and set into perspective. Construction of the maximum likelihood estimator of the mixing distribution is done for any number of components up to the global nonparametric maximum likelihood bound using the EM algorithm. In addition, the estimators of Chao and Zelterman are considered with some generalisations of Zelterman’s estimator. All computations are done with CAMCR, a special software developed for population size estimation with mixture models. Several examples and data sets are discussed and the estimators illustrated. Problems using the mixture model-based estimators are highlighted.

Antigenotoxic effect of kefir and ayran supernatants on fecal water-induced DNA damage in human colon cells

Fermented dairy products and their component bacteria have been shown to possess health-promoting functions in consumers and recently have been suggested to reduce the risk of colorectal cancer. Kefir and ayran are two popular fermented milk drinks that have their origins in the Caucasus region of Russia. The present study aimed to evaluate their potential anticancer properties in colon cells in vitro. The comet assay and transepithelial resistance assay were used to assess the effect of kefir and ayran supernatants on genotoxicity of fecal water samples and on intestinal tight junction integrity. Their antioxidant capacity was measured by trolox equivalent antioxidant capacity assay and compared with that of unfermented milk. The results showed that DNA damage induced by 2 of 4 fecal water samples was significantly decreased by kefir and ayran supernatants and with ayran the effect was dose-dependent. However no effect on intestinal tight junctions was observed. The supernatants of kefir and ayran contained high amounts of acetic and lactic acid but only a very small quantity of caproic and butyric acid, and they showed significantly greater antioxidant capacity than milk. These findings suggest kefir and ayran can reduce DNA damage, which might be due to their antioxidant capacities.