85 resultados para expected value of information
Resumo:
Ecological indicators are taxa that are affected by, and indicate effects of, anthropogenic environmental stress or disturbance on ecosystems. There is evidence that some species of soil macrofauna (i.e. diameter > 2 min) constitute valuable biological indicators of certain types of soil perturbations. This study aims to determine which level of taxonomic resolution, (species, family or ecological group) is the best to identify indicator of soil disturbance. Macrofauna were sampled in a set of sites encompassing different land-use systems (e.g. forests, pastures, crops) and different levels of pollution. Indicator taxa were sought using the IndVal index proposed by Dufrene and Legendre [Dufrene, M., Legendre, P., 1997. Species assemblages and indicator species: the need for a flexible asymetrical approach. Ecological Monographs 67, 345-3661. This approach is based on a hierarchical typology of sites. The index value changes along the typology and decreases (increases) for generalist (specialist) faunal units (species, families or ecological groups). Of the 327 morphospecies recorded, 19 were significantly associated with a site type or a group of sites (5.8%). Similarly, species were aggregated to form 59 families among which 17 (28.8%) displayed a significant indicator value. Gathering species into 28 broad ecological assemblages led to 14 indicator groups (50%). Beyond the simple proportion of units having significant association with a given level of the site typology, the proportion of specialist and generalist groups changed dramatically when the level of taxonomic resolution was altered. At the species level 84% of the indicator units were specialist, whereas this proportion decreased to 70 and 43% when families and ecological groups were considered. Because specialist groups are the most interesting type of indicators either in terms of conservation or for management purposes we come to the conclusion that the species level is the most accurate taxonomic level in bioindication studies although it requires a high amount of labour and operator knowledge and is time-consuming. (c) 2005 Published by Elsevier Ltd.
Resumo:
To make informed decisions about taking medicinal drugs, people need accurate information about side-effects. A European Union guideline now recommends use of qualitative descriptions for five bands of risk, ranging from very rare (affecting < 0·01% of the population), to very common (>10%). We did four studies of more than 750 people, whom we asked to estimate the probability of having a side-effect on the basis of qualitative and quantitative descriptions. Our results showed that qualitative descriptions led to gross overestimation of risk. Until further work is done on how patients taking the drugs interpret these terms, the terms should not be used in drug information leaflets.
Resumo:
This study evaluates computer-generated written explanations about drug prescriptions that are based on an analysis of both patient and doctor informational needs. Three experiments examine the effects of varying the type of information given about the possible side effects of the medication, and the order of information within the explanation. Experiment 1 investigated the effects of these two factors on people's ratings of how good they consider the explanations to be and of their perceived likelihood of taking the medication, as well as on their memory for the information in the explanation. Experiment 2 further examined the effects of varying information about side effects by separating out the contribution of number and severity of side effects. It was found that participants in this study did not “like” explanations that described severe side effects, and also judged that they would be less likely to take the medication if given such explanations. Experiment 3 therefore investigated whether information about severe side effects could be presented in such a way as to increase judgements of how good explanations are thought to be, as well as the perceived likelihood of adherence. The results showed some benefits of providing additional explanatory information.
Resumo:
This paper reports on research undertaken by the author into what secondary school drama teachers think they need to possess in terms of subject knowledge in order to operate effectively as subject specialists. ‘Subject knowledge’ is regarded as being multi faceted and the paper reports on how drama teachers prioritise its different aspects. A discussion of what ‘subject knowledge’ may be seen to encompass reveals interesting tensions between aspects of professional knowledge that are prescribed by statutory dictate and local context, and those that are valued by individual teachers and are manifest in their construction of a professional identity. The paper proposes that making judgements that associate propositional and substantive knowledge with traditionally held academic values as ‘bad’ or ‘irrelevant’ to drama education, and what Foucault has coined as ‘subjugated knowledge’ (i.e. local, vernacular, enactive knowledge that eludes inscription) as ‘good’ and more apposite to the work of all those involved in drama education, fails to reflect the complex matrices of values that specialists appear to hold. While the reported research focused on secondary school drama teachers in England, Bourdieu’s conception of field and habitus is invoked to suggest a model which recognises how drama educators more generally may construct a professional identity that necessarily balances personal interests and beliefs with externally imposed demands.
Resumo:
Magnetic clouds are a subset of interplanetary coronal mass ejections characterized by a smooth rotation in the magnetic field direction, which is interpreted as a signature of a magnetic flux rope. Suprathermal electron observations indicate that one or both ends of a magnetic cloud typically remain connected to the Sun as it moves out through the heliosphere. With distance from the axis of the flux rope, out toward its edge, the magnetic field winds more tightly about the axis and electrons must traverse longer magnetic field lines to reach the same heliocentric distance. This increased time of flight allows greater pitch-angle scattering to occur, meaning suprathermal electron pitch-angle distributions should be systematically broader at the edges of the flux rope than at the axis. We model this effect with an analytical magnetic flux rope model and a numerical scheme for suprathermal electron pitch-angle scattering and find that the signature of a magnetic flux rope should be observable with the typical pitch-angle resolution of suprathermal electron data provided ACE's SWEPAM instrument. Evidence of this signature in the observations, however, is weak, possibly because reconnection of magnetic fields within the flux rope acts to intermix flux tubes.
Resumo:
Some scholars have read Virgil’s grafted tree (G. 2.78–82) as a sinister image, symptomatic of man’s perversion of nature. However, when it is placed within the long tradition of Roman accounts of grafting (in both prose and verse), it seems to reinforce a consistently positive view of the technique, its results, and its possibilities. Virgil’s treatment does represent a significant change from Republican to Imperial literature, whereby grafting went from mundane reality to utopian fantasy. This is reflected in responses to Virgil from Ovid, Columella, Calpurnius, Pliny the Elder, and Palladius (with Republican context from Cato, Varro, and Lucretius), and even in the postclassical transformation of Virgil’s biography into a magical folktale.
Resumo:
This note reports on the results of a choice experiment survey of 400 people in England and Wales, conducted to estimate the value that society places on changes to the size of the badger population. The study was undertaken in the context of the possible need to reduce the badger population by culling to help control bovine tuberculosis in cattle. The study found that people were concerned about the problem of bovine tuberculosis in cattle, which was reflected in their willingness to pay to control the disease, and gave a relatively low value to changes in the size of the badger population (within limits). However, people did not like the idea of a policy that intentionally killed large numbers of badgers and had a relatively very high willingness to pay not to have such a policy.
Resumo:
Two commercial enzyme products, Depol 40 (D) and Liquicell 2500 (L), were characterised from a biochemical standpoint and their potential to improve rumen degradation of forages was evaluated in vitro. Enzyme activities were determined at pH 5.5 and 39 degreesC. Analysis of the enzyme activities indicated that L contained higher xylanase and endoglucanase, but lower exoglucanase, pectinase and alpha-amylase activities than D. The Reading Pressure Technique (RPT) was used to investigate the effect of enzyme addition on the in vitro gas production (GP) and organic matter degradation (OMD) of alfalfa (Medicago sativa L.) stems and leaves. A completely randomised design with factorial arrangement of treatments was used. Both alfalfa fractions were untreated or treated with each enzyme at four levels, 20 h before incubation with rumen fluid. Each level of enzyme provided similar amounts of filter paper (D1, L1), endoglucanase (D2, L2), alpha-L-arabinofuranosidase (D3, L3) and xylanase units (D4, L4) per gram forage DM. Enzymes increased the initial OMD in both fractions, with improvements of up to 15% in leaves (D4) and 8% in stems (L2) after 12 h incubation. All enzyme treatments increased the extent of degradation (96 h incubation) in the leaf fractions, but only L2 increased final OMD in the stems. Direct hydrolysis of forage fractions during the pre-treatment period did not fully account for the magnitude of the increases in OMD, suggesting that the increase in rate of degradation was achieved through a combined effect of direct enzyme hydrolysis and synergistic action between the exogenous (applied) and endogenous (rumen) enzymes. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
Foods derived from animals are an important source of nutrients in the diet; for example, milk and meat together provide about 60 and 55% of the dietary intake of Ca and protein respectively in the UK. However, certain aspects of some animal-derived foods, particularly their fat and saturated fatty acid (SFA) contents, have led to concerns that these foods substantially contribute to the risk of CVD, the metabolic syndrome and other chronic diseases. In most parts of Europe dairy products are the greatest single dietary source of SFA. The fatty acid composition of various animal-derived foods is, however, not constant and can, in many cases, be enhanced by animal nutrition. In particular, milk fat with reduced concentrations of the C12-16 SFA and an increased concentration of 18:1 MUFA is achievable, although enrichment with very-long-chain n-3 PUFA is much less efficient. However, there is now evidence that some animal-derived foods (notably milk products) contain compounds that may actively promote long-term health, and research is urgently required to fully characterise the benefits associated with the consumption of these compounds and to understand how the levels in natural foods can be enhanced. It is also vital that the beneficial effects are not inadvertently destroyed in the process of reducing the concentrations of SFA. In the future the role of animal nutrition in creating foods closer to the optimum composition for long-term human health is likely to become increasingly important, but production of such foods on a scale that will substantially affect national diets will require political and financial incentives and great changes in the animal production industry.
Resumo:
The effect of variety, agronomic and environmental factors on the chemical composition and energy value for ruminants and non-ruminants of husked and naked oats grain was studied. Winter oats were grown as experimental plots in each of 2 years on three sites in England. At each site two conventional husked oat cultivars (Gerald and Image) and two naked cultivars (Kynon and Pendragon) were grown. At each site, crops were sown on two dates and all crops were grown with the application of either zero or optimum fertiliser nitrogen. Variety and factors contained within the site + year effect had the greatest influence on the chemical composition and nutritive value of oats, followed by nitrogen ferfiliser treatment. For example, compared with zero nitrogen, the optimum nitrogen fertiliser treatment resulted in a consistent and significant (P < 0.001) increase in crude protein for all varieties at all sites from an average of 95 to 118 g kg(-1) DM, increased the potassium concentration in all varieties from an average of 4.9 to 5.1 g kg(-1) DM (P < 0.01) and reduced total lipid by a small but significant (P < 0.001) amount. Optimum nitrogen increased (P < 0.001) the NDF concentration in the two husked varieties and in the naked variety Pendragon. Naked cultivars were lower in fibre, had considerably higher energy, total lipid, linoleic acid, protein, starch and essential amino acids than the husked cultivars. Thus nutritionists need to be selective in their choice of naked or husked oat depending on the intended dietary use. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
This study investigates the effect of information about potential benefits of biotechnology on consumer acceptance of genetically modified (GM) foods. Consumer willingness to accept compensation to consume a GM food was elicited using an incentive compatible auction mechanism in three US states (California, Florida, and Texas) and in two European countries (England and France). Results indicate that information on environmental benefits, health benefits and benefits to the third world significantly decreased the amount of money consumers demanded to consume GM food; however, the effect of information varied by type of information and location. Consistent with prior research, we find that initial attitudes toward biotechnology have a significant effect on how individuals responded to new information.
Resumo:
in vitro studies were conducted on five sorghum genotypes developed for the dry tropical highland climate of Kenya and which can be fed to ruminants fresh or as silage. The five sorghum genotypes consisted of two normal white mid-rib (WMR) genotypes, coded E1291 and E65181, and three brown-midrib (BMR) genotypes, coded Lan-5, Lan-6 and Lan-12. Whole mature plants (herbage plus grain) and silage made from E 1291 were used in the study. An in vitro manual gas production technique was used to compare the nutritive characteristics of these genotypes for ruminants. These sorghums differed significantly in true organic matter degraded (OMDeg), which ranged from 520 to 678 g/kg after 24 h incubation and 706 to 805 g/kg after 72 h incubation. All the BMR sorghums had a higher degradability than the WMR genotype, E6518, and the silage, with Lan-5 having the highest degradability. Methane produced per g OMDeg ranged from 40.6 to 46.4 mL/g after 24 h incubation and from 53.1 to 62.6 mL/g after 72 h incubation. It was similar for all genotypes after 24 h incubation but Lan-12 had the highest methane production after 72 h incubation. After 24 h and 72 h incubation all the genotypes produced a similar total amount of gas per OMDeg (293 to 309 and 357 to 385 mL/g, respectively) with similar total short chain fatty acid concentrations in the liquid digesta (7.8 to 10.4 and 9.5 to 10.3 mmol, respectively) and acetate to propionate ratios of 2.16 to 2.49 and 2.35 to 2.87, respectively. The sorghums showed great potential as ruminant feed sources in the region.