Yield and nitrogen accumulation and partitioning in winter wheat under elevated CO2: A 3-year free-air CO2 enrichment experiment

Fossil fuel combustion and deforestation have resulted in a rapid increase in atmospheric [CO2] since the 1950’s, and it will reach about 550 μmol mol−1 in 2050. Field experiments were conducted at the Free-air CO2 Enrichment facility in Beijing, China. Winter wheat was grown to maturity under elevated [CO2] (550 ± 17 μmol mol−1) and ambient [CO2] (415 ± 16 μmol mol−1), with high nitrogen (N) supply (HN, 170 kg N ha−1) and low nitrogen supply (LN, 100 kg N ha−1) for three growing seasons from 2007 to 2010. Elevated [CO2] increased wheat grain yield by 11.4% across the three years. [CO2]-induced yield enhancements were 10.8% and 11.9% under low N and high N supply, respectively. Nitrogen accumulation under elevated [CO2] was increased by 12.9% and 9.2% at the half-way anthesis and ripening stage across three years, respectively. Winter wheat had higher nitrogen demand under elevated [CO2] than ambient [CO2], and grain yield had a stronger correlation with plant N uptake after anthesis than before anthesis at high [CO2]. Our results suggest that regulating on the N application rate and time, is likely important for sustainable grain production under future CO2 climate.

Long-term response of the nematode community to elevated atmospheric CO2 in a temperate dry grassland soil

Long-term effects of the elevated atmospheric CO2 on biosphere have been in focus of research since the last few decades. In this experiment undisturbed soil monoliths of loess grassland were exposed to an elevated CO2 environment (two-times the ambient CO2 level) for a period of six years with the aid of the open top chamber method. Control without a chamber and CO2 elevation was applied as well. Elevated CO2 level had very little impact oil soil food web. It did not influence either root and microbial biomass or microbial and nematode community structure. The only significant response was that density of the bacterial feeder genus Heterocephalobus increased in the chamber with elevated CO2 concentration. Application of the open top chambers initiated more changes on nematodes than the elevated CO2 level. Open top chamber (OTC) method decreased nematode density (total and plant feeder as well) to less than half of the original level. Negative effect was found on the genus level in the case of fungal feeder Aphelenchoides, plant feeder Helicotylenchus and Paratylenchus. It is very likely that the significantly lower belowground root biomass and partly its decreased quality reflected by the increased C/N ratio are the main responsible factors for the lower density of the plant feeder nematodes in the plots of chambers. According to diversity profiles, MI and MI(2-15) parameters, nematode communities in the open top chambers (both on ambient and elevated CO2 level) seem to be more structured than those under normal circumstances six years after start of the experiment.

Elevated atmospheric CO2 changes phosphorus fractions in soils under a short rotation poplar plantation (EuroFACE)

Future high levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) may increase biomass production of terrestrial plants and hence plant requirements for soil mineral nutrients to sustain a greater biomass production. Phosphorus (P), an element essential for plant growth, is found in soils both in inorganic and in organic forms. In this work, three genotypes of Populus were grown under ambient and elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations (FACE) for 5 years. An N fertilisation treatment was added in years 4 and 5 after planting. Using a fractionation scheme, total P was sequentially extracted using H2O, NaOH, HCl and HNO3, and P determined as both molybdate (Mo) reactive and total P. Molybdate-reactive P is defined as mainly inorganic but also some labile organic P which is determined by Vanado-molybdophosphoric acid colorimetric methods. Organic P was also measured to assess all plant available and weatherable P pools. We tested the hypotheses that higher P demand due to increased growth is met by a depletion of easily weatherable soil P pools, and that increased biomass inputs increases the amount of organic P in the soil. The concentration of organic P increased under FACE, but was associated with a decrease in total soil organic matter. The greatest increase in the soil P due to elevated CO2 was found in the HCl-extractable P fraction in the non-fertilised treatment. In the NaOH-extractable fraction the Mo-reactive P increased under FACE, but total P did not differ between ambient and FACE. The increase in both the NaOH- and HCl-extractable fractions was smaller after N addition. The results showed that elevated atmospheric CO2 has a positive effect on soil P availability rather than leading to depletion.We suggest that the increase in the NaOH- and HCl-extractable fractions is biologically driven by organic matter mineralization, weathering and mycorrhizal hyphal turnover.

Water use of a bioenergy plantation increases in a future high CO2 world

Fast-growing poplar trees may in future be used as a source of renewable energy for heat, electricity and biofuels such as bioethanol. Water use in Populus x euramericana (clone I214), following long-term exposure to elevated CO2 in the POPFACE (poplar free-air carbon dioxide enrichment) experiment, is quantified here. Stomatal conductance was measured and, during two measurement campaigns made before and after coppicing, whole-tree water use was determined using heat-balance sap-flow gauges, first validated using eddy covariance measurements of latent heat flux. Water use was determined by the balance between leaf-level reductions in stomatal conductance and tree-level stimulations in transpiration. Reductions in stomatal conductance were found that varied between 16 and 39% relative to ambient air. Whole-tree sap flow was increased in plants growing under elevated CO2, on average, by 12 and 23%, respectively, in the first and in the second measurement campaigns. These results suggest that future CO2 concentrations may result in an increase in seasonal water use in fast-growing, short-rotation Populus plantations.

Free atmospheric CO2 enrichment increased above ground biomass but did not affect symbiotic N2-fixation and soil carbon dynamics in a mixed deciduous stand in Wales

Through increases in net primary production (NPP), elevated CO2 is hypothesizes to increase the amount of plant litter entering the soil. The fate of this extra carbon on the forest floor or in mineral soil is currently not clear. Moreover, increased rates of NPP can be maintained only if forests can escape nitrogen limitation. In a Free atmospheric CO2 Enrichment (FACE) experiment near Bangor, Wales, 4 ambient CO2 and 4 FACE plots were planted with patches of Betula pendula, Alnus glutinosa and Fagus sylvatica on a former arable field. Four years after establishment, only a shallow L forest floor litter layer had formed due to intensive bioturbation. Total soil C and N contents increased irrespective of treatment and species as a result of afforestation. We could not detect an additional C sink in the soil, nor were soil C stabilization processes affected by FACE. We observed a decrease of leaf N content in Betula and Alnus under FACE, while the soil C/N ratio decreased regardless of CO2 treatment. The ratio of N taken up from the soil and by N2-fixation in Alnus was not affected by FACE. We infer that increased nitrogen use efficiency is the mechanism by which increased NPP is sustained under elevated CO2 at this site.

Spatial and temporal effects of free-air CO2 enrichment (POPFACE) on leaf growth, cell expansion and cell production in a closed canopy of poplar

Leaf expansion in the fast-growing tree,Populus × euramericana was stimulated by elevated [CO2] in a closed-canopy forest plantation, exposed using a free air CO2 enrichment technique enabling long-term experimentation in field conditions. The effects of elevated [CO2] over time were characterized and related to the leaf plastochron index (LPI), and showed that leaf expansion was stimulated at very early (LPI, 0–3) and late (LPI, 6–8) stages in development. Early and late effects of elevated [CO2] were largely the result of increased cell expansion and increased cell production, respectively. Spatial effects of elevated [CO2] were also marked and increased final leaf size resulted from an effect on leaf area, but not leaf length, demonstrating changed leaf shape in response to [CO2]. Leaves exhibited a basipetal gradient of leaf development, investigated by defining seven interveinal areas, with growth ceasing first at the leaf tip. Interestingly, and in contrast to other reports, no spatial differences in epidermal cell size were apparent across the lamina, whereas a clear basipetal gradient in cell production rate was found. These data suggest that the rate and timing of cell production was more important in determining leaf shape, given the constant cell size across the leaf lamina. The effect of elevated [CO2] imposed on this developmental gradient suggested that leaf cell production continued longer in elevated [CO2] and that basal increases in cell production rate were also more important than altered cell expansion for increased final leaf size and altered leaf shape in elevated [CO2].

Long-term acclimation of leaf production, development, longevity and quality following 3 yr exposure to free-air CO2 enrichment during canopy closure in Populus

The effects of elevated CO2 on leaf development in three genotypes of Populus were investigated during canopy closure, following exposure to elevated CO2 over 3 yr using free-air enrichment.• Leaf quality was altered such that nitrogen concentration per unit d. wt (Nmass) declined on average by 22 and 13% for sun and shade leaves, respectively, in elevated CO2. There was little evidence that this was the result of ‘dilution’ following accumulation of nonstructural carbohydrates. Most likely, this was the result of increased leaf thickness. Specific leaf area declined in elevated CO2 on average by 29 and 5% for sun and shade leaves, respectively.• Autumnal senescence was delayed in elevated CO2 with a 10% increase in the number of days at which 50% leaf loss occurred in elevated as compared with ambient CO2.• These data suggest that changes in leaf quality may be predicted following long-term acclimation of fast-growing forest trees to elevated CO2, and that canopy longevity may increase, with important implications for forest productivity.

Effects of fully open-air CO2 elevation on leaf ultrastructure, photosynthesis and yield of two soybean cultivars.

The objective of this study was to investigate the effect of elevated (550 ± 17 μmol mol−1) CO2 concentration ([CO2]) on leaf ultrastructure, leaf photosynthesis and seed yield of two soybean cultivars [Glycine max (L.) Merr. cv. Zhonghuang 13 and cv. Zhonghuang 35] at the Free-Air Carbon dioxide Enrichment (FACE) experimental facility in North China. Photosynthetic acclimation occurred in soybean plants exposed to long-term elevated [CO2] and varied with cultivars and developmental stages. Photosynthetic acclimation occurred at the beginning bloom (R1) stage for both cultivars, but at the beginning seed (R5) stage only for Zhonghuang 13. No photosynthetic acclimation occurred at the beginning pod (R3) stage for either cultivar. Elevated [CO2] increased the number and size of starch grains in chloroplasts of the two cultivars. Soybean leaf senescence was accelerated under elevated [CO2], determined by unclear chloroplast membrane and blurred grana layer at the beginning bloom (R1) stage. The different photosynthesis response to elevated [CO2] between cultivars at the beginning seed (R5) contributed to the yield difference under elevated [CO2]. Elevated [CO2] significantly increased the yield of Zhonghuang 35 by 26% with the increased pod number of 31%, but not for Zhonghuang 13 without changes of pod number. We conclude that the occurrence of photosynthetic acclimation at the beginning seed (R5) stage for Zhonghuang 13 restricted the development of extra C sink under elevated [CO2], thereby limiting the response to elevated [CO2] for the seed yield of this cultivar.

Coppicing shifts CO2 stimulation of poplar productivity to above-ground pools: a synthesis of leaf to stand level results from the POP/EUROFACE experiment

A poplar short rotation coppice (SRC) grown for the production of bioenergy can combine carbon (C) storage with fossil fuel substitution. Here, we summarize the responses of a poplar (Populus) plantation to 6 yr of free air CO2 enrichment (POP/EUROFACE consisting of two rotation cycles). We show that a poplar plantation growing in nonlimiting light, nutrient and water conditions will significantly increase its productivity in elevated CO2 concentrations ([CO2]). Increased biomass yield resulted from an early growth enhancement and photosynthesis did not acclimate to elevated [CO2]. Sufficient nutrient availability, increased nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) and the large sink capacity of poplars contributed to the sustained increase in C uptake over 6 yr. Additional C taken up in high [CO2] was mainly invested into woody biomass pools. Coppicing increased yield by 66% and partly shifted the extra C uptake in elevated [CO2] to above-ground pools, as fine root biomass declined and its [CO2] stimulation disappeared. Mineral soil C increased equally in ambient and elevated [CO2] during the 6 yr experiment. However, elevated [CO2] increased the stabilization of C in the mineral soil. Increased productivity of a poplar SRC in elevated [CO2] may allow shorter rotation cycles, enhancing the viability of SRC for biofuel production.

The role of CO2 and dynamic vegetation on the impact of temperate land use change in the HadCM3 coupled climate model

Human induced land-use change (LUC) alters the biogeophysical characteristics of the land surface influencing the surface energy balance. The level of atmospheric CO2 is expected to increase in the coming century and beyond, modifying temperature and precipitation patterns and altering the distribution and physiology of natural vegetation. It is important to constrain how CO2-induced climate and vegetation change may influence the regional extent to which LUC alters climate. This sensitivity study uses the HadCM3 coupled climate model under a range of equilibrium forcings to show that the impact of LUC declines under increasing atmospheric CO2, specifically in temperate and boreal regions. A surface energy balance analysis is used to diagnose how these changes occur. In Northern Hemisphere winter this pattern is attributed in part to the decline in winter snow cover and in the summer due to a reduction in latent cooling with higher levels of CO2. The CO2-induced change in natural vegetation distribution is also shown to play a significant role. Simulations run at elevated CO2 yet present day vegetation show a significantly increased sensitivity to LUC, driven in part by an increase in latent cooling. This study shows that modelling the impact of LUC needs to accurately simulate CO2 driven changes in precipitation and snowfall, and incorporate accurate, dynamic vegetation distribution.

Crop yield reduction in the tropics under climate change: Processes and uncertainties

Many modelling studies examine the impacts of climate change on crop yield, but few explore either the underlying bio-physical processes, or the uncertainty inherent in the parameterisation of crop growth and development. We used a perturbed-parameter crop modelling method together with a regional climate model (PRECIS) driven by the 2071-2100 SRES A2 emissions scenario in order to examine processes and uncertainties in yield simulation. Crop simulations used the groundnut (i.e. peanut; Arachis hypogaea L.) version of the General Large-Area Model for annual crops (GLAM). Two sets of GLAM simulations were carried out: control simulations and fixed-duration simulations, where the impact of mean temperature on crop development rate was removed. Model results were compared to sensitivity tests using two other crop models of differing levels of complexity: CROPGRO, and the groundnut model of Hammer et al. [Hammer, G.L., Sinclair, T.R., Boote, K.J., Wright, G.C., Meinke, H., and Bell, M.J., 1995, A peanut simulation model: I. Model development and testing. Agron. J. 87, 1085-1093]. GLAM simulations were particularly sensitive to two processes. First, elevated vapour pressure deficit (VPD) consistently reduced yield. The same result was seen in some simulations using both other crop models. Second, GLAM crop duration was longer, and yield greater, when the optimal temperature for the rate of development was exceeded. Yield increases were also seen in one other crop model. Overall, the models differed in their response to super-optimal temperatures, and that difference increased with mean temperature; percentage changes in yield between current and future climates were as diverse as -50% and over +30% for the same input data. The first process has been observed in many crop experiments, whilst the second has not. Thus, we conclude that there is a need for: (i) more process-based modelling studies of the impact of VPD on assimilation, and (ii) more experimental studies at super-optimal temperatures. Using the GLAM results, central values and uncertainty ranges were projected for mean 2071-2100 crop yields in India. In the fixed-duration simulations, ensemble mean yields mostly rose by 10-30%. The full ensemble range was greater than this mean change (20-60% over most of India). In the control simulations, yield stimulation by elevated CO2 was more than offset by other processes-principally accelerated crop development rates at elevated, but sub-optimal, mean temperatures. Hence, the quantification of uncertainty can facilitate relatively robust indications of the likely sign of crop yield changes in future climates. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Climate change and the flowering time of annual crops

Crop production is inherently sensitive to variability in climate. Temperature is a major determinant of the rate of plant development and, under climate change, warmer temperatures that shorten development stages of determinate crops will most probably reduce the yield of a given variety. Earlier crop flowering and maturity have been observed and documented in recent decades, and these are often associated with warmer (spring) temperatures. However, farm management practices have also changed and the attribution of observed changes in phenology to climate change per se is difficult. Increases in atmospheric [CO2] often advance the time of flowering by a few days, but measurements in FACE (free air CO2 enrichment) field-based experiments suggest that elevated [CO2] has little or no effect on the rate of development other than small advances in development associated with a warmer canopy temperature. The rate of development (inverse of the duration from sowing to flowering) is largely determined by responses to temperature and photoperiod, and the effects of temperature and of photoperiod at optimum and suboptimum temperatures can be quantified and predicted. However, responses to temperature, and more particularly photoperiod, at supraoptimal temperature are not well understood. Analysis of a comprehensive data set of time to tassel initiation in maize (Zea mays) with a wide range of photoperiods above and below the optimum suggests that photoperiod modulates the negative effects of temperature above the optimum. A simulation analysis of the effects of prescribed increases in temperature (0-6 degrees C in + 1 degrees C steps) and temperature variability (0% and + 50%) on days to tassel initiation showed that tassel initiation occurs later, and variability was increased, as the temperature exceeds the optimum in models both with and without photoperiod sensitivity. However, the inclusion of photoperiod sensitivity above the optimum temperature resulted in a higher apparent optimum temperature and less variability in the time of tassel initiation. Given the importance of changes in plant development for crop yield under climate change, the effects of photoperiod and temperature on development rates above the optimum temperature clearly merit further research, and some of the knowledge gaps are identified herein.

Statistical modelling of grapevine yield in the Port Wine region under present and future climate conditions

The impact of projected climate change on wine production was analysed for the Demarcated Region of Douro, Portugal. A statistical grapevine yield model (GYM) was developed using climate parameters as predictors. Statistically significant correlations were identified between annual yield and monthly mean temperatures and monthly precipitation totals during the growing cycle. These atmospheric factors control grapevine yield in the region, with the GYM explaining 50.4% of the total variance in the yield time series in recent decades. Anomalously high March rainfall (during budburst, shoot and inflorescence development) favours yield, as well as anomalously high temperatures and low precipitation amounts in May and June (May: flowering and June: berry development). The GYM was applied to a regional climate model output, which was shown to realistically reproduce the GYM predictors. Finally, using ensemble simulations under the A1B emission scenario, projections for GYM-derived yield in the Douro Region, and for the whole of the twenty-first century, were analysed. A slight upward trend in yield is projected to occur until about 2050, followed by a steep and continuous increase until the end of the twenty-first century, when yield is projected to be about 800 kg/ha above current values. While this estimate is based on meteorological parameters alone, changes due to elevated CO2 may further enhance this effect. In spite of the associated uncertainties, it can be stated that projected climate change may significantly benefit wine yield in the Douro Valley.

Comparing projections of future changes in runoff from hydrological and biome models in ISI-MIP

Future changes in runoff can have important implications for water resources and flooding. In this study, runoff projections from ISI-MIP (Inter-sectoral Impact Model Inter-comparison Project) simulations forced with HadGEM2-ES bias-corrected climate data under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 have been analysed for differences between impact models. Projections of change from a baseline period (1981-2010) to the future (2070-2099) from 12 impacts models which contributed to the hydrological and biomes sectors of ISI-MIP were studied. The biome models differed from the hydrological models by the inclusion of CO2 impacts and most also included a dynamic vegetation distribution. The biome and hydrological models agreed on the sign of runoff change for most regions of the world. However, in West Africa, the hydrological models projected drying, and the biome models a moistening. The biome models tended to produce larger increases and smaller decreases in regionally averaged runoff than the hydrological models, although there is large inter-model spread. The timing of runoff change was similar, but there were differences in magnitude, particularly at peak runoff. The impact of vegetation distribution change was much smaller than the projected change over time, while elevated CO2 had an effect as large as the magnitude of change over time projected by some models in some regions. The effect of CO2 on runoff was not consistent across the models, with two models showing increases and two decreases. There was also more spread in projections from the runs with elevated CO2 than with constant CO2. The biome models which gave increased runoff from elevated CO2 were also those which differed most from the hydrological models. Spatially, regions with most difference between model types tended to be projected to have most effect from elevated CO2, and seasonal differences were also similar, so elevated CO2 can partly explain the differences between hydrological and biome model runoff change projections. Therefore, this shows that a range of impact models should be considered to give the full range of uncertainty in impacts studies.