Vegetation dynamics in abandoned crop fields on a Mediterranean island: Development of succession model and estimation of disturbance thresholds

This case study on the Sifnos island, Greece, assesses the main factors controlling vegetation succession following crop abandonment and describes the vegetation dynamics of maquis and phrygana formations in relation to alternative theories of secondary succession. Field survey data were collected and analysed at community as well as species level. The results show that vegetation succession on abandoned crop fields is determined by the combined effects of grazing intensity, soil and geological characteristics and time. The analysis determines the quantitative grazing thresholds that modify the successional pathway. Light grazing leads to dominance by maquis vegetation while overgrazing leads to phryganic vegetation. The proposed model shows that vegetation succession following crop abandonment is a complex multi-factor process where the final or the stable stage of the process is not predefined but depends on the factors affecting succession. An example of the use of succession models and disturbance thresholds as a policy assessment tool is presented by evaluating the likely vegetation impacts of the recent reform of the Common Agricultural Policy on Sifnos island over a 20-30-year time horizon. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Cost-benefit analysis model of badger (Meles meles) culling to reduce cattle herd tuberculosis breakdowns in Britain, with particular reference to badger perturbation

Bovine tuberculosis (TB)is an important economic disease. Badgers (Meles meles) are the wildlife source implicated in many cattle outbreaks of TB in Britain, and extensive badger control is a controversial option to reduce the disease. A badger and cattle population model was developed, simulating TB epidemiology; badger ecology, including postcull social perturbation; and TB-related farm management. An economic cost-benefit module was integrated into the model to assess whether badger control offers economic benefits. Model results strongly indicate that although, if perturbation were restricted, extensive badger culling could reduce rates in cattle, overall an economic loss would be more likely than a benefit. Perturbation of the badger population was a key factor determining success or failure of control. The model highlighted some important knowledge gaps regarding both the spatial and temporal characteristics of perturbation that warrant further research.

A dual role for integrin-linked kinase in platelets: regulating integrin function and alpha-granule secretion

Integrin-linked kinase (ILK) has been implicated in the regulation of a range of fundamental biological processes such as cell survival, growth, differentiation, and adhesion. In platelets ILK associates with beta 1- and beta 3-containing integrins, which are of paramount importance for the function of platelets. Upon stimulation of platelets this association with the integrins is increased and ILK kinase activity is up-regulated, suggesting that ILK may be important for the coordination of platelet responses. In this study a conditional knockout mouse model was developed to examine the role of ILK in platelets. The ILK-deficient mice showed an increased bleeding time and volume, and despite normal ultrastructure the function of ILK-deficient platelets was decreased significantly. This included reduced aggregation, fibrinogen binding, and thrombus formation under arterial flow conditions. Furthermore, although early collagen stimulated signaling such as PLC gamma 2 phosphorylation and calcium mobilization were unaffected in ILK-deficient platelets, a selective defect in alpha-granule, but not dense-granule, secretion was observed. These results indicate that as well as involvement in the control of integrin affinity, ILK is required for alpha-granule secretion and therefore may play a central role in the regulation of platelet function. (Blood. 2008; 112: 4523-4531)

A parametric model for the interval censored survival times of Acacia mangium plantation in a spacing trial

Survival times for the Acacia mangium plantation in the Segaliud Lokan Project, Sabah, East Malaysia were analysed based on 20 permanent sample plots (PSPs) established in 1988 as a spacing experiment. The PSPs were established following a complete randomized block design with five levels of spacing randomly assigned to units within four blocks at different sites. The survival times of trees in years are of interest. Since the inventories were only conducted annually, the actual survival time for each tree was not observed. Hence, the data set comprises censored survival times. Initial analysis of the survival of the Acacia mangium plantation suggested there is block by spacing interaction; a Weibull model gives a reasonable fit to the replicate survival times within each PSP; but a standard Weibull regression model is inappropriate because the shape parameter differs between PSPs. In this paper we investigate the form of the non-constant Weibull shape parameter. Parsimonious models for the Weibull survival times have been derived using maximum likelihood methods. The factor selection for the parameters is based on a backward elimination procedure. The models are compared using likelihood ratio statistics. The results suggest that both Weibull parameters depend on spacing and block.

Diagnosis of variability and trends in a global precipitation dataset using a physically motivated statistical model

A physically motivated statistical model is used to diagnose variability and trends in wintertime ( October - March) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) pentad (5-day mean) precipitation. Quasi-geostrophic theory suggests that extratropical precipitation amounts should depend multiplicatively on the pressure gradient, saturation specific humidity, and the meridional temperature gradient. This physical insight has been used to guide the development of a suitable statistical model for precipitation using a mixture of generalized linear models: a logistic model for the binary occurrence of precipitation and a Gamma distribution model for the wet day precipitation amount. The statistical model allows for the investigation of the role of each factor in determining variations and long-term trends. Saturation specific humidity q(s) has a generally negative effect on global precipitation occurrence and with the tropical wet pentad precipitation amount, but has a positive relationship with the pentad precipitation amount at mid- and high latitudes. The North Atlantic Oscillation, a proxy for the meridional temperature gradient, is also found to have a statistically significant positive effect on precipitation over much of the Atlantic region. Residual time trends in wet pentad precipitation are extremely sensitive to the choice of the wet pentad threshold because of increasing trends in low-amplitude precipitation pentads; too low a choice of threshold can lead to a spurious decreasing trend in wet pentad precipitation amounts. However, for not too small thresholds, it is found that the meridional temperature gradient is an important factor for explaining part of the long-term trend in Atlantic precipitation.

A demonstration of attentional bias, using a novel dual task paradigm, towards clinically salient material in recovering alcohol abuse patients?

Background. This study examined whether alcohol abuse patients are characterized either by enhanced schematic processing of alcohol related cues or by an attentional bias towards the processing of alcohol cues. Method. Abstinent alcohol abusers (N = 25) and non-clinical control participants (N = 24) performed a dual task paradigm in which they had to make an odd/even decision to a centrally presented number while performing a peripherally presented lexical decision task. Stimuli on the lexical decision task comprised alcohol words, neutral words and non-words. In addition, participants completed an incidental recall task for the words presented in the lexical decision task. Results. It was found that, in the presence of alcohol related words, the performance of patients on the odd/even decision task was poorer than in the presence of other stimului. In addition, patients displayed slower lexical decision times for alcohol related words. Both groups displayed better recall for alcohol words than for other stimuli. Conclusions. These results are interpreted as supporting neither model of drug cravings. Rather, it is proposed that, in the presence of alcohol stimuli, alcohol abuse patients display a breakdown in the ability to focus attention.

Modeling energy consumption of dual-hop relay based MAC protocols in ad hoc networks

Given that the next and current generation networks will coexist for a considerable period of time, it is important to improve the performance of existing networks. One such improvement recently proposed is to enhance the throughput of ad hoc networks by using dual-hop relay-based transmission schemes. Since in ad hoc networks throughput is normally related to their energy consumption, it is important to examine the impact of using relay-based transmissions on energy consumption. In this paper, we present an analytical energy consumption model for dual-hop relay-based medium access control (MAC) protocols. Based on the recently reported relay-enabled Distributed Coordination Function (rDCF), we have shown the efficacy of the proposed analytical model. This is a generalized model and can be used to predict energy consumption in saturated relay-based ad hoc networks. This model can predict energy consumption in ideal environment and with transmission errors. It is shown that using a relay results in not only better throughput but also better energy efficiency. Copyright (C) 2009 Rizwan Ahmad et al.

Meson properties in an extended nonlocal NJL model

We consider a non-local version of the NJL model, based on a separable quark-quark interaction. The interaction is extended to include terms that bind vector and axial-vector mesons. The non-locality means that no further regulator is required. Moreover the model is able to confine the quarks by generating a quark propagator without poles at real energies. Working in the ladder approximation, we calculate amplitudes in Euclidean space and discuss features of their continuation to Minkowski energies. Conserved currents are constructed and we demonstrate their consistency with various Ward identities. Various meson masses are calculated, along with their strong and electromagnetic decay amplitudes. We also calculate the electromagnetic form factor of the pion, as well as form factors associated with the processes γγ* → π0 and ω → π0γ*. The results are found to lead to a satisfactory phenomenology and lend some dynamical support to the idea of vector-meson dominance.

Meson properties in an extended nonlocal NJL model

A nonlocal version of the NJL model is investigated. It is based on a separable quark-quark interaction, as suggested by the instanton liquid picture of the QCD vacuum. The interaction is extended to include terms that bind vector and axial-vector mesons. The nonlocality means that no further regulator is required. Moreover the model is able to confine the quarks by generating a quark propagator without poles at real energies. Features of the continuation of amplitudes from Euclidean space to Minkowski energies are discussed. These features lead to restrictions on the model parameters as well as on the range of applicability of the model. Conserved currents are constructed, and their consistency with various Ward identities is demonstrated. In particular, the Gell-Mann-Oakes-Renner relation is derived both in the ladder approximation and at meson loop level. The importance of maintaining chiral symmetry in the calculations is stressed throughout. Calculations with the model are performed to all orders in momentum. Meson masses are determined, along with their strong and electromagnetic decay amplitudes. Also calculated are the electromagnetic form factor of the pion and form factors associated with the processes gamma gamma* --> pi0 and omega --> pi0 gamma*. The results are found to lead to a satisfactory phenomenology and demonstrate a possible dynamical origin for vector-meson dominance. In addition, the results produced at meson loop level validate the use of 1/Nc as an expansion parameter and indicate that a light and broad scalar state is inherent in models of the NJL type.

3D-Var assimilation of insect-derived Doppler radar radial winds in convective cases using a high resolution model

The assimilation of Doppler radar radial winds for high resolution NWP may improve short term forecasts of convective weather. Using insects as the radar target, it is possible to provide wind observations during convective development. This study aims to explore the potential of these new observations, with three case studies. Radial winds from insects detected by 4 operational weather radars were assimilated using 3D-Var into a 1.5 km resolution version of the Met Office Unified Model, using a southern UK domain and no convective parameterization. The effect on the analysis wind was small, with changes in direction and speed up to 45° and 2 m s−1 respectively. The forecast precipitation was perturbed in space and time but not substantially modified. Radial wind observations from insects show the potential to provide small corrections to the location and timing of showers but not to completely relocate convergence lines. Overall, quantitative analysis indicated the observation impact in the three case studies was small and neutral. However, the small sample size and possible ground clutter contamination issues preclude unequivocal impact estimation. The study shows the potential positive impact of insect winds; future operational systems using dual polarization radars which are better able to discriminate between insects and clutter returns should provided a much greater impact on forecasts.

A comparison of extreme European daily precipitation simulated by a global and a regional climate model for present and future climates

The intensity and distribution of daily precipitation is predicted to change under scenarios of increased greenhouse gases (GHGs). In this paper, we analyse the ability of HadCM2, a general circulation model (GCM), and a high-resolution regional climate model (RCM), both developed at the Met Office's Hadley Centre, to simulate extreme daily precipitation by reference to observations. A detailed analysis of daily precipitation is made at two UK grid boxes, where probabilities of reaching daily thresholds in the GCM and RCM are compared with observations. We find that the RCM generally overpredicts probabilities of extreme daily precipitation but that, when the GCM and RCM simulated values are scaled to have the same mean as the observations, the RCM captures the upper-tail distribution more realistically. To compare regional changes in daily precipitation in the GHG-forced period 2080-2100 in the GCM and the RCM, we develop two methods. The first considers the fractional changes in probability of local daily precipitation reaching or exceeding a fixed 15 mm threshold in the anomaly climate compared with the control. The second method uses the upper one-percentile of the control at each point as the threshold. Agreement between the models is better in both seasons with the latter method, which we suggest may be more useful when considering larger scale spatial changes. On average, the probability of precipitation exceeding the 1% threshold increases by a factor of 2.5 (GCM and RCM) in winter and by I .7 (GCM) or 1.3 (RCM) in summer.

A model for exchange rates with crawling bands: an application to the Colombian peso

This paper builds upon previous research on currency bands, and provides a model for the Colombian peso. Stochastic differential equations are combined with information related to the Colombian currency band to estimate competing models of the behaviour of the Colombian peso within the limits of the currency band. The resulting moments of the density function for the simulated returns describe adequately most of the characteristics of the sample returns data. The factor included to account for the intra-marginal intervention performed to drive the rate towards the Central Parity accounts only for 6.5% of the daily change, which supports the argument that intervention, if performed by the Central Bank, it is not directed to push the currency towards the limits. Moreover, the credibility of the Colombian Central Bank, Banco de la República’s ability to defend the band seems low.

Lexical access across languages: a multinomial model of auditory distraction

Recall in many types of verbal memory task is reliably disrupted by the presence of auditory distracters, with verbal distracters frequently proving the most disruptive (Beaman, 2005). A multinomial processing tree model (Schweickert, 1993) is applied to the effects on free recall of background speech from a known or an unknown language. The model reproduces the free recall curve and the impact on memory of verbal distracters for which a lexical entry exists (i.e., verbal items from a known language). The effects of semantic relatedness of distracters within a language is found to depend upon a redintegrative factor thought to reflect the contribution of the speech-production system. The differential impacts of known and unknown languages cannot be accounted for in this way, but the same effects of distraction are observed amongst bilinguals, regardless of distracter-language.

The variant rpoS allele of S-enteritidis strain 27655R does not affect virulence in a chick model nor constitutive curliation but does generate a cold-sensitive phenotype

Adherence of pathogenic Escherichia coli and Salmonella spp. to host cells is in part mediated by curli fimbriae which, along with other virulence determinants, are positively regulated by RpoS. Interested in the role and regulation of curli (SEF17) fimbriae of Salmonella enteritidis in poultry infection, we tested the virulence of naturally occurring S. enteritidis PT4 strains 27655R and 27655S which displayed constitutive and null expression of curli (SEF17) fimbriae, respectively, in a chick invasion assay and analysed their rpoS alleles. Both strains were shown to be equally invasive and as invasive as a wild-type phage type 4 strain and an isogenic derivative defective for the elaboration of curli. We showed that the rpoS allele of 27655S was intact even though this strain was non-curliated and we confirmed that a S. enteritidis rpoS::str(r) null mutant was unable to express curli, as anticipated. Strain 27655R, constitutively curliated, possessed a frameshift mutation at position 697 of the rpoS coding sequence which resulted in a truncated product and remained curliated even when transduced to rpoS::str(r). Additionally, rpoS mutants are known to be cold-sensitive, a phenotype confirmed for strain 27655R. Collectively, these data indicated that curliation was not a significant factor for pathogenesis of S. enteritidis in this model and that curliation of strains 27655R and 27655S was independent of RpoS. Significantly, strain 27655R possessed a defective rpoS allele and remained virulent. Here was evidence that supported the concept that different naturally occurring rpoS alleles may generate varying virulence phenotypic traits. (C) 1998 Federation of European Microbiological Societies. Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Large-scale surface mass balance of ice sheets from a comprehensive atmospheric model

The surface mass balance for Greenland and Antarctica has been calculated using model data from an AMIP-type experiment for the period 1979–2001 using the ECHAM5 spectral transform model at different triangular truncations. There is a significant reduction in the calculated ablation for the highest model resolution, T319 with an equivalent grid distance of ca 40 km. As a consequence the T319 model has a positive surface mass balance for both ice sheets during the period. For Greenland, the models at lower resolution, T106 and T63, on the other hand, have a much stronger ablation leading to a negative surface mass balance. Calculations have also been undertaken for a climate change experiment using the IPCC scenario A1B, with a T213 resolution (corresponding to a grid distance of some 60 km) and comparing two 30-year periods from the end of the twentieth century and the end of the twenty-first century, respectively. For Greenland there is change of 495 km3/year, going from a positive to a negative surface mass balance corresponding to a sea level rise of 1.4 mm/year. For Antarctica there is an increase in the positive surface mass balance of 285 km3/year corresponding to a sea level fall by 0.8 mm/year. The surface mass balance changes of the two ice sheets lead to a sea level rise of 7 cm at the end of this century compared to end of the twentieth century. Other possible mass losses such as due to changes in the calving of icebergs are not considered. It appears that such changes must increase significantly, and several times more than the surface mass balance changes, if the ice sheets are to make a major contribution to sea level rise this century. The model calculations indicate large inter-annual variations in all relevant parameters making it impossible to identify robust trends from the examined periods at the end of the twentieth century. The calculated inter-annual variations are similar in magnitude to observations. The 30-year trend in SMB at the end of the twenty-first century is significant. The increase in precipitation on the ice sheets follows closely the Clausius-Clapeyron relation and is the main reason for the increase in the surface mass balance of Antarctica. On Greenland precipitation in the form of snow is gradually starting to decrease and cannot compensate for the increase in ablation. Another factor is the proportionally higher temperature increase on Greenland leading to a larger ablation. It follows that a modest increase in temperature will not be sufficient to compensate for the increase in accumulation, but this will change when temperature increases go beyond any critical limit. Calculations show that such a limit for Greenland might well be passed during this century. For Antarctica this will take much longer and probably well into following centuries.