Some physical drivers of changes in the winter storm tracks over the North Atlantic and Mediterranean during the Holocene

The winter climate of Europe and the Mediterranean is dominated by the weather systems of the mid-latitude storm tracks. The behaviour of the storm tracks is highly variable, particularly in the eastern North Atlantic, and has a profound impact on the hydroclimate of the Mediterranean region. A deeper understanding of the storm tracks and the factors that drive them is therefore crucial for interpreting past changes in Mediterranean climate and the civilizations it has supported over the last 12 000 years (broadly the Holocene period). This paper presents a discussion of how changes in climate forcing (e.g. orbital variations, greenhouse gases, ice sheet cover) may have impacted on the ‘basic ingredients’ controlling the mid-latitude storm tracks over the North Atlantic and the Mediterranean on intermillennial time scales. Idealized simulations using the HadAM3 atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) are used to explore the basic processes, while a series of timeslice simulations from a similar atmospheric GCM coupled to a thermodynamic slab ocean (HadSM3) are examined to identify the impact these drivers have on the storm track during the Holocene. The results suggest that the North Atlantic storm track has moved northward and strengthened with time since the Early to Mid-Holocene. In contrast, the Mediterranean storm track may have weakened over the same period. It is, however, emphasized that much remains still to be understood about the evolution of the North Atlantic and Mediterranean storm tracks during the Holocene period.

A randomised trial to investigate the effects of acute consumption of a blackcurrant juice drink on markers of vascular reactivity and bioavailability of anthocyanins in human subjects

Objective: To study the bioavailability of anthocyanins and the effects of a 20% blackcurrant juice drink on vascular reactivity, plasma antioxidant status and other CVD risk markers. Subjects/Methods: The study was a randomised, cross over, double blind, placebo controlled acute meal study. Twenty healthy volunteers (11 females 9 males) were recruited, and all subjects completed the study. Fasted volunteers consumed a 20% blackcurrant juice drink (250 ml) or a control drink following a low-flavonoid diet for the previous 72 hours. Vascular reactivity was assessed at baseline and 120 mins after juice consumption by Laser Doppler Imaging (LDI). Plasma and urine samples were collected periodically over an 8 hour period for analysis, with a final urine sample collected at 24h. The cross over was performed after a 4-week washout. Results: There were no significant effects of the 20% blackcurrant juice drink on acute measures of vascular reactivity, biomarkers of endothelial function or lipid risk factors. Consumption of the test juice caused increases in plasma vitamin C (P=0.006), and urinary anthocyanins (P<0.001). Delphinidin-3-rutinoside and cyanidin-3-rutinoside were the main anthocyanins excreted in urine with delphinidin-3-glucoside also detected. The yield of anthocyanins in urine was 0.021 ± 0.003% of the dietary intake of delphinidin glycosides and 0.009 ± 0.002 % of the dietary intake of cyanidin glycosides. Conclusions: The juice consumption did not have a significant effect on vascular reactivity. Anthocyanins were present at low concentrations in the urine, and microbial metabolites of flavonoids were detected in plasma after juice consumption.

Drivers of fund performance: a panel data analysis

The principle aim of this research is to elucidate the factors driving the total rate of return of non-listed funds using a panel data analytical framework. In line with previous results, we find that core funds exhibit lower yet more stable returns than value-added and, in particular, opportunistic funds, both cross-sectionally and over time. After taking into account overall market exposure, as measured by weighted market returns, the excess returns of value-added and opportunity funds are likely to stem from: high leverage, high exposure to development, active asset management and investment in specialized property sectors. A random effects estimation of the panel data model largely confirms the findings obtained from the fixed effects model. Again, the country and sector property effect shows the strongest significance in explaining total returns. The stock market variable is negative which hints at switching effects between competing asset classes. For opportunity funds, on average, the returns attributable to gearing are three times higher than those for value added funds and over five times higher than for core funds. Overall, there is relatively strong evidence indicating that country and sector allocation, style, gearing and fund size combinations impact on the performance of unlisted real estate funds.

Individual assets, market structure and the drivers of return

Much prior research on the structure and performance of UK real estate portfolios has relied on aggregated measures for sector and region. For these groupings to have validity, the performance of individual properties within each group should be similar. This paper analyses a sample of 1,200 properties using multiple discriminant analysis and cluster analysis techniques. It is shown that conventional property type and spatial classifications do not capture the variation in return behaviour at the individual building level. The major feature is heterogeneity - but there may be distinctions between growth and income properties and between single and multi-let properties that could help refine portfolio structures.

Local management and landscape drivers of pollination and biological control services in a Kenyan agro-ecosystem

Arthropods that have a direct impact on crop production (i.e. pests, natural enemies and pollinators) can be influenced by both local farm management and the context within which the fields occur in the wider landscape. However, the contributions and spatial scales at which these drivers operate and interact are not fully understood, particularly in the developing world. The impact of both local management and landscape context on insect pollinators and natural enemy communities and on their capacity to deliver related ecosystem services to an economically important tropical crop, pigeonpea was investigated. The study was conducted in nine paired farms across a gradient of increasing distance to semi-native vegetation in Kibwezi, Kenya. Results show that proximity of fields to semi-native habitats negatively affected pollinator and chewing insect abundance. Within fields, pesticide use was a key negative predictor of pollinator, pest and foliar active predator abundance. On the contrary, fertilizer application significantly enhanced pollinator and both chewing and sucking insect pest abundance. At a 1 km spatial scale of fields, there were significant negative effects of the number of semi-native habitat patches within fields dominated by mass flowering pigeonpea on pollinators abundance. For service provision, a significant decline in fruit set when insects were excluded from flowers was recorded. This study reveals the interconnections of pollinators, predators and pests with pigeonpea crop. For sustainable yields and to conserve high densities of both pollinators and predators of pests within pigeonpea landscapes, it is crucial to target the adoption of less disruptive farm management practices such as reducing pesticide and fertilizer inputs.

‘Everyone now is concentrating on the mining’: drivers and implications of rural economic transition in the Eastern Region of Ghana

Artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM) is replacing smallholder farming as the principal income source in parts of rural Ghana. Structural adjustment policies have removed support for the country’s smallholders, devalued their produce substantially and stiffened competition with large-scale counterparts. Over one million people nationwide are now engaged in ASM. Findings from qualitative research in Ghana’s Eastern Region are drawn upon to improve understanding of the factors driving this pattern of rural livelihood diversification. The ASM sector and farming are shown to be complementary, contrary to common depictions in policy and academic literature.

Effects of acute consumption of a fruit and vegetable puree-based drink on vasodilation and oxidative status

Epidemiological studies indicate that diets rich in fruits and vegetables (F&V) are protective against cardiovascular diseases (CVD). Pureed F&V products retain many beneficial components, including flavonoids, carotenoids, vitamin C and dietary fibres. This study aimed to establish the physiological effects of acute ingestion of F&V puree-based drink (FVPD) on vasodilation, antioxidant status, phytochemical bioavailability and other CVD risk factors. 24 Subjects, aged 30-70 years, completed the randomised, single-blind, controlled, crossover test meal study. Subjects consumed 400 ml FVPD, or fruit-flavoured sugar-matched control, after following a low-flavonoid diet for 5 days. Blood and urine samples were collected throughout the study day and vascular reactivity was assessed at 90-minute intervals using laser Doppler iontophoresis (LDI). FVPD significantly increased plasma vitamin C (P=0.002) and total nitrate/nitrite (P=0.001) concentrations. There was a near significant time by treatment effect on ex vivo LDL oxidation (P=0.068), with a longer lag phase after consuming FVPD. During the 6 hours after juice consumption the antioxidant capacity of plasma increased significantly (P=0.003) and there was a simultaneous increase in plasma and urinary phenolic metabolites (P<0.05). There were significantly lower glucose and insulin peaks after ingestion of FVPD compared with control (P=0.019 and P=0.003) and a trend towards increased endothelium-dependent vasodilation following FVPD consumption (P=0.061). Overall, FVPD consumption significantly increased plasma vitamin C and total nitrate/nitrite concentrations, with a trend towards increased endothelium-dependent vasodilation. Pureed F&V products are useful vehicles for increasing micronutrient status, plasma antioxidant capacity and in vivo NO generation, which may contribute to CVD risk reduction.

Abiotic drivers and plant traits explain landscape-scale patterns in soil microbial communities

The controls on aboveground community composition and diversity have been extensively studied, but our understanding of the drivers of belowground microbial communities is relatively lacking, despite their importance for ecosystem functioning. In this study, we fitted statistical models to explain landscape-scale variation in soil microbial community composition using data from 180 sites covering a broad range of grassland types, soil and climatic conditions in England. We found that variation in soil microbial communities was explained by abiotic factors like climate, pH and soil properties. Biotic factors, namely community- weighted means (CWM) of plant functional traits, also explained variation in soil microbial communities. In particular, more bacterial-dominated microbial communities were associated with exploitative plant traits versus fungal-dominated communities with resource-conservative traits, showing that plant functional traits and soil microbial communities are closely related at the landscape scale.

On the drivers of inter-annual and decadal rainfall variability in Queensland, Australia

Queensland experiences considerable inter-annual and decadal rainfall variability, which impacts water-resource management, agriculture and infrastructure. To understand the mechanisms by which large-scale atmospheric and coupled air–sea processes drive these variations, empirical orthogonal teleconnection (EOT) analysis is applied to 1900–2010 seasonal Queensland rainfall. Fields from observations and the 20th Century Reanalysis are regressed onto the EOT timeseries to associate the EOTs with large-scale drivers. In winter, spring and summer the leading, state-wide EOTs are highly correlated with the El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO); the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation modulates the summer ENSO teleconnection. In autumn, the leading EOT is associated with locally driven, late-season monsoon variations, while ENSO affects only tropical northern Queensland. Examining EOTs beyond the first, southeastern Queensland and the Cape York peninsula emerge as regions of coherent rainfall variability. In the southeast, rainfall anomalies respond to the strength and moisture content of onshore easterlies, controlled by Tasman Sea blocking. The summer EOT associated with onshore flow and blocking has been negative since 1970, consistent with the observed decline in rainfall along the heavily populated coast. The southeastern Queensland EOTs show considerable multi-decadal variability, which is independent of large-scale drivers. Summer rainfall in Cape York is associated with tropical-cyclone activity.