The distribution of the ring current: Cluster observations

Extending previous studies, a full-circle investigation of the ring current has been made using Cluster 4-spacecraft observations near perigee, at times when the Cluster array had relatively small separations and nearly regular tetrahedral configurations, and when the Dst index was greater than −30 nT (non-storm conditions). These observations result in direct estimations of the near equatorial current density at all magnetic local times (MLT) for the first time and with sufficient accuracy, for the following observations. The results confirm that the ring current flows westward and show that the in situ average measured current density (sampled in the radial range accessed by Cluster 4–4.5RE) is asymmetric in MLT, ranging from 9 to 27 nAm−2. The direction of current is shown to be very well ordered for the whole range of MLT. Both of these results are in line with previous studies on partial ring extent. The magnitude of the current density, however, reveals a distinct asymmetry: growing from 10 to 27 nAm−2 as azimuth reduces from about 12:00MLT to 03:00 and falling from 20 to 10 nAm−2 less steadily as azimuth reduces from 24:00 to 12:00MLT. This result has not been reported before and we suggest it could reflect a number of effects. Firstly, we argue it is consistent with the operation of region-2 field aligned-currents (FACs), which are expected to flow upward into the ring current around 09:00MLT and downward out of the ring current around 14:00MLT. Secondly, we note that it is also consistent with a possible asymmetry in the radial distribution profile of current density (resulting in higher peak at 4– 4.5RE). We note that part of the enhanced current could reflect an increase in the mean AE activity (during the periods in which Cluster samples those MLT).

The effect of (mis-specified) GARCH filters on the finite sample distribution of the BDS test

This paper considers the effect of using a GARCH filter on the properties of the BDS test statistic as well as a number of other issues relating to the application of the test. It is found that, for certain values of the user-adjustable parameters, the finite sample distribution of the test is far-removed from asymptotic normality. In particular, when data generated from some completely different model class are filtered through a GARCH model, the frequency of rejection of iid falls, often substantially. The implication of this result is that it might be inappropriate to use non-rejection of iid of the standardised residuals of a GARCH model as evidence that the GARCH model ‘fits’ the data.

Analysis of the distribution of the number of bidders in construction contract auctions

The number of bidders, N, involved in a construction procurement auction is known to have an important effect on the value of the lowest bid and the mark-up applied by bidders. In practice, for example, it is important for a bidder to have a good estimate of N when bidding for a current contract. One approach, instigated by Friedman in 1956, is to make such an estimate by statistical analysis and modelling. Since then, however, finding a suitable model for N has been an enduring problem for researchers and, despite intensive research activity in the subsequent 30 years, little progress has been made, due principally to the absence of new ideas and perspectives. The debate is resumed by checking old assumptions, providing new evidence relating to concomitant variables and proposing a new model. In doing this and in order to ensure universality, a novel approach is developed and tested by using a unique set of 12 construction tender databases from four continents. This shows the new model provides a significant advancement on previous versions. Several new research questions are also posed and other approaches identified for future study.

Distribution of selected heavy metals in sediments of the Agueda river (Central Portugal)

The state of river water deterioration in the Agueda hydrographic basin, mostly in the western part, partly reflects the high rate of housing and industrial development in this area in recent years. The streams have acted as a sink for organic and inorganic loads from several origins: domestic and industrial sewage and agricultural waste. The contents of the heavy metals Cr, Cd, Ni, Cu, Pb, and Zn were studied by sequential chemical extraction of the principal geochemical phases of streambed sediments, in the <63 mum fraction, in order to assess their potential availability to the environment, investigating, the metal concentrations, assemblages, and trends. The granulometric and mineralogical characteristics of this sediment fraction were also studied. This study revealed clear pollution by Cr, Cd, Ni, Cu, Zn, and Pb, as a result from both natural and anthropogenic origins. The chemical transport of metals appears to be essentially by the following geochemical phases, in decreasing order of significance: (exchangeable + carbonates) much greater than (organics) much greater than (Mn and Fe oxides and hydroxides). The (exchangeable + carbonate) phase plays an important part in the fixation of Cu, Ni, Zn, and Cd. The organic phase is important in the fixation of Cr, Pb, and also Cu and Ni. Analyzing the metal contents in the residual fraction, we conclude that Zn and Cd are the most mobile, and Cr and Pb are less mobile than Cu and Ni. The proximity of the pollutant sources and the timing of the influx of contaminated material control the distribution of the contaminant-related sediments locally and on the network scale.

Sampling the soil in long-term forest plots: The implications of spatial variation

Long-term monitoring of forest soils as part of a pan-European network to detect environmental change depends on an accurate determination of the mean of the soil properties at each monitoring event. Forest soil is known to be very variable spatially, however. A study was undertaken to explore and quantify this variability at three forest monitoring plots in Britain. Detailed soil sampling was carried out, and the data from the chemical analyses were analysed by classical statistics and geostatistics. An analysis of variance showed that there were no consistent effects from the sample sites in relation to the position of the trees. The variogram analysis showed that there was spatial dependence at each site for several variables and some varied in an apparently periodic way. An optimal sampling analysis based on the multivariate variogram for each site suggested that a bulked sample from 36 cores would reduce error to an acceptable level. Future sampling should be designed so that it neither targets nor avoids trees and disturbed ground. This can be achieved best by using a stratified random sampling design.

Modeling the plant uptake of organic chemicals, including the soil-air-plant pathway

The soil−air−plant pathway is potentially important in the vegetative accumulation of organic pollutants from contaminated soils. While a number of qualitative frameworks exist for the prediction of plant accumulation of organic chemicals by this pathway, there are few quantitative models that incorporate this pathway. The aim of the present study was to produce a model that included this pathway and could quantify its contribution to the total plant contamination for a range of organic pollutants. A new model was developed from three submodels for the processes controlling plant contamination via this pathway: aerial deposition, soil volatilization, and systemic translocation. Using the combined model, the soil−air−plant pathway was predicted to account for a significant proportion of the total shoot contamination for those compounds with log KOA > 9 and log KAW < −3. For those pollutants with log KOA < 9 and log KAW > −3 there was a higher deposition of pollutant via the soil−air−plant pathway than for those chemicals with log KOA > 9 and log KAW < −3, but this was an insignificant proportion of the total shoot contamination because of the higher mobility of these compounds via the soil−root−shoot pathway. The incorporation of the soil−air−plant pathway into the plant uptake model did not significantly improve the prediction of the contamination of vegetation from polluted soils when compared across a range of studies. This was a result of the high variability between the experimental studies where the bioconcentration factors varied by 2 orders of magnitude at an equivalent log KOA. One potential reason for this is the background air concentration of the pollutants under study. It was found background air concentrations would dominate those from soil volatilization in many situations unless there was a soil hot spot of contamination, i.e., >100 mg kg−1.

The global distribution of phytoplankton size spectrum and size classes from their light-absorption spectra derived from satellite data

The absorption spectra of phytoplankton in the visible domain hold implicit information on the phytoplankton community structure. Here we use this information to retrieve quantitative information on phytoplankton size structure by developing a novel method to compute the exponent of an assumed power-law for their particle-size spectrum. This quantity, in combination with total chlorophyll-a concentration, can be used to estimate the fractional concentration of chlorophyll in any arbitrarily-defined size class of phytoplankton. We further define and derive expressions for two distinct measures of cell size of mixed populations, namely, the average spherical diameter of a bio-optically equivalent homogeneous population of cells of equal size, and the average equivalent spherical diameter of a population of cells that follow a power-law particle-size distribution. The method relies on measurements of two quantities of a phytoplankton sample: the concentration of chlorophyll-a, which is an operational index of phytoplankton biomass, and the total absorption coefficient of phytoplankton in the red peak of visible spectrum at 676 nm. A sensitivity analysis confirms that the relative errors in the estimates of the exponent of particle size spectra are reasonably low. The exponents of phytoplankton size spectra, estimated for a large set of in situ data from a variety of oceanic environments (~ 2400 samples), are within a reasonable range; and the estimated fractions of chlorophyll in pico-, nano- and micro-phytoplankton are generally consistent with those obtained by an independent, indirect method based on diagnostic pigments determined using high-performance liquid chromatography. The estimates of cell size for in situ samples dominated by different phytoplankton types (diatoms, prymnesiophytes, Prochlorococcus, other cyanobacteria and green algae) yield nominal sizes consistent with the taxonomic classification. To estimate the same quantities from satellite-derived ocean-colour data, we combine our method with algorithms for obtaining inherent optical properties from remote sensing. The spatial distribution of the size-spectrum exponent and the chlorophyll fractions of pico-, nano- and micro-phytoplankton estimated from satellite remote sensing are in agreement with the current understanding of the biogeography of phytoplankton functional types in the global oceans. This study contributes to our understanding of the distribution and time evolution of phytoplankton size structure in the global oceans.

Influence of the size distribution of particles on the viscous property of an electrorheological fluid

The influence of the size distribution of particles on the viscous property of an electrorheological fluid has been investigated by the molecular dynamic simulation method. The shear stress of the fluid is found to decrease with the increase of the variance sigma(2) of the Gaussian distribution of the particle size, and then reach a steady value when sigma is larger than 0.5. This phenomenon is attributed to the influence of the particle size distribution on the dynamic structural evolution in the fluid as well as the strength of the different chain-like structures formed by the particles.

Soils of the tropics

The conditions for soil development in the lowland tropics are described, in particular the soil-forming factors, climate, parent material, topography and organisms, and their interactions through time. Of particular importance is the climate of the lowland tropics, which has a major influence on the nature of soil development because of high temperatures and the duration of the periods when the soil is moist. The nature of the parent material is also a major determinant of the nature of the soil. Because soil development has taken place in much of the tropics over long time periods, the soils have distinctive characteristics. Soil-forming processes are described briefly, in particular the nature of the weathering of the inorganic fraction of the soil, and the removal of soluble materials in leaching and the translocation of materials in suspension. Typical soils developed in the humid and seasonally moist tropics are briefly described, and comparisons made between the two most widely used international soil classifications, Soil Taxonomy and World Reference Base for Soil Resources. Some of the other soils found within the tropics are briefly described.

Down-regulation of the CSLF6 gene results in decreased (1,3;1,4)-beta-D-glucan in endosperm of wheat

(1,3;1,4)-beta-d-Glucan (beta-glucan) accounts for 20% of the total cell walls in the starchy endosperm of wheat (Triticum aestivum) and is an important source of dietary fiber for human nutrition with potential health benefits. Bioinformatic and array analyses of gene expression profiles in developing caryopses identified the CELLULOSE SYNTHASE-LIKE F6 (CSLF6) gene as encoding a putative beta-glucan synthase. RNA interference constructs were therefore designed to down-regulate CSLF6 gene expression and expressed in transgenic wheat under the control of a starchy endosperm-specific HMW subunit gene promoter. Analysis of wholemeal flours using an enzyme-based kit and by high-performance anion-exchange chromatography after digestion with lichenase showed decreases in total beta-glucan of between 30% and 52% and between 36% and 53%, respectively, in five transgenic lines compared to three control lines. The content of water-extractable beta-glucan was also reduced by about 50% in the transgenic lines, and the M(r) distribution of the fraction was decreased from an average of 79 to 85 x 10(4) g/mol in the controls and 36 to 57 x 10(4) g/mol in the transgenics. Immunolocalization of beta-glucan in semithin sections of mature and developing grains confirmed that the impact of the transgene was confined to the starchy endosperm with little or no effect on the aleurone or outer layers of the grain. The results confirm that the CSLF6 gene of wheat encodes a beta-glucan synthase and indicate that transgenic manipulation can be used to enhance the health benefits of wheat products.

Evaluation of the model representation of the evolution of convective systems using satellite observations of outgoing longwave radiation

We introduce a technique for assessing the diurnal development of convective storm systems based on outgoing longwave radiation fields. Using the size distribution of the storms measured from a series of images, we generate an array in the lengthscale-time domain based on the standard score statistic. It demonstrates succinctly the size evolution of storms as well as the dissipation kinematics. It also provides evidence related to the temperature evolution of the cloud tops. We apply this approach to a test case comparing observations made by the Geostationary Earth Radiation Budget instrument to output from the Met Office Unified Model run at two resolutions. The 12km resolution model produces peak convective activity on all lengthscales significantly earlier in the day than shown by the observations and no evidence for storms growing in size. The 4km resolution model shows realistic timing and growth evolution although the dissipation mechanism still differs from the observed data.

A regime view of the North Atlantic Oscillation and its response to anthropogenic forcing

The distribution of the daily wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index in the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) is significantly negatively skewed. Dynamical and statistical analyses both suggest that this skewness reflects the presence of two distinct regimes—referred to as “Greenland blocking” and “subpolar jet.” Changes in both the relative occurrence and in the structure of the regimes are shown to contribute to the long-term NAO trend over the ERA-40 period. This is contrasted with the simulation of the NAO in 100-yr control and doubled CO2 integrations of the third climate configuration of the Met Office Unified Model (HadCM3). The model has clear deficiencies in its simulation of the NAO in the control run, so its predictions of future behavior must be treated with caution. However, the subpolar jet regime does become more dominant under anthropogenic forcing and, while this change is small it is clearly statistically significant and does represent a real change in the nature of NAO variability in the model.

Predictability of the western North Pacific summer climate demonstrated by the coupled models of ENSEMBLES

The Asian monsoon system, including the western North Pacific (WNP), East Asian, and Indian monsoons, dominates the climate of the Asia-Indian Ocean-Pacific region, and plays a significant role in the global hydrological and energy cycles. The prediction of monsoons and associated climate features is a major challenge in seasonal time scale climate forecast. In this study, a comprehensive assessment of the interannual predictability of the WNP summer climate has been performed using the 1-month lead retrospective forecasts (hindcasts) of five state-of-the-art coupled models from ENSEMBLES for the period of 1960–2005. Spatial distribution of the temporal correlation coefficients shows that the interannual variation of precipitation is well predicted around the Maritime Continent and east of the Philippines. The high skills for the lower-tropospheric circulation and sea surface temperature (SST) spread over almost the whole WNP. These results indicate that the models in general successfully predict the interannual variation of the WNP summer climate. Two typical indices, the WNP summer precipitation index and the WNP lower-tropospheric circulation index (WNPMI), have been used to quantify the forecast skill. The correlation coefficient between five models’ multi-model ensemble (MME) mean prediction and observations for the WNP summer precipitation index reaches 0.66 during 1979–2005 while it is 0.68 for the WNPMI during 1960–2005. The WNPMI-regressed anomalies of lower-tropospheric winds, SSTs and precipitation are similar between observations and MME. Further analysis suggests that prediction reliability of the WNP summer climate mainly arises from the atmosphere–ocean interaction over the tropical Indian and the tropical Pacific Ocean, implying that continuing improvement in the representation of the air–sea interaction over these regions in CGCMs is a key for long-lead seasonal forecast over the WNP and East Asia. On the other hand, the prediction of the WNP summer climate anomalies exhibits a remarkable spread resulted from uncertainty in initial conditions. The summer anomalies related to the prediction spread, including the lower-tropospheric circulation, SST and precipitation anomalies, show a Pacific-Japan or East Asia-Pacific pattern in the meridional direction over the WNP. Our further investigations suggest that the WNPMI prediction spread arises mainly from the internal dynamics in air–sea interaction over the WNP and Indian Ocean, since the local relationships among the anomalous SST, circulation, and precipitation associated with the spread are similar to those associated with the interannual variation of the WNPMI in both observations and MME. However, the magnitudes of these anomalies related to the spread are weaker, ranging from one third to a half of those anomalies associated with the interannual variation of the WNPMI in MME over the tropical Indian Ocean and subtropical WNP. These results further support that the improvement in the representation of the air–sea interaction over the tropical Indian Ocean and subtropical WNP in CGCMs is a key for reducing the prediction spread and for improving the long-lead seasonal forecast over the WNP and East Asia.

Firm size and competition: a comparison of the housebuilding industries in Australia, the UK and the USA

Housebuilding is frequently viewed as an industry full of small firms. However, large firms exist in many countries. Here, a comparative analysis is made of the housebuilding industries in Australia, Britain and the USA. Housebuilding output is found to be much higher in Australia and the USA than in Britain when measured on a per capita basis. At the same time, the degree of market concentration in Australia and the USA is relatively low but in Britain it is far greater, with a few firms having quite substantial market shares. Investigation of the size distribution of the top 100 or so firms ranked by output also shows that the decline in firm size from the largest downwards is more rapid in Britain than elsewhere. The exceptionalism of the British case is put down to two principal reasons. First, the close proximity of Britain’s regions enables housebuilders to diversify successfully across different markets. The gains from such diversification are best achieved by large firms, because they can gain scale benefits in any particular market segment. Second, land shortages induced by a restrictive planning system encourage firms to takeover each other as a quick and beneficial means of acquiring land. The institutional rules of planning also make it difficult for new entrants to come in at the bottom end of the size hierarchy. In this way, concentration grows and a handful of large producers emerge. These conditions do not hold in the other two countries, so their industries are less concentrated. Given the degree of rivalry between firms over land purchases and takeovers, it is difficult to envisage them behaving in a long-term collusive manner, so that competition in British housebuilding is probably not unduly compromised by the exceptional degree of firm concentration. Reforms to lower the restrictions, improve the slow responsiveness and reduce the uncertainties associated with British planning systems’ role in housing supply are likely to greatly improve the ability of new firms to enter housebuilding and all firms’ abilities to increase output in response to rising housing demand. Such reforms would also probably lower overall housebuilding firm concentration over time.