Analysis of the eyes formed in simulated tropical cyclones and polar lows

The structure and size of the eyes generated in numerically simulated tropical cyclones and polar lows have been studied. A primitive-equation numerical model simulated systems in which the structures of the eyes formed were consistent with available observations. Whilst the tropical cyclone eyes generated were usually rapidly rotating, it appeared impossible for an eye formed in a system with a polar environment to develop this type of structure. The polar low eyes were found to be unable to warm through the subsidence of air with high values of potential temperature, as the environment was approximately statically neutral. Factors affecting the size of the eye were investigated through a series of controlled experiments. In mature tropical cyclone systems the size of the eye was insensitive to small changes in initial conditions, surface friction and latent and sensible heating from the ocean. In contrast, the eye size was strongly dependent on these parameters in the mature polar lows. Consistent with the findings, a mechanism is proposed in which the size of the eye in simulated polar lows is controlled by the strength of subsidence within it.

Extraction behavior of the synergistic system 2,6-bis-(benzoxazolyl)-4-dodecyloxylpyridine and 2-bromodecanoic acid using Am and Eu as radioactive tracers

In this study, the extraction properties of a synergistic system consisting of 2,6-bis-(benzoxazolyl)-4-dodecyloxylpyridine (BODO) and 2-bromodecanoic acid (HA) in tert-butyl benzene (TBB) have been investigated as a function of ionic strength by varying the nitrate ion and perchlorate ion concentrations. The influence of the hydrogen ion concentration has also been investigated. Distribution ratios between 0.03-12 and 0.003-0.8 have been found for Am(III) and Eu(HI), respectively, but there were no attempts to maximize these values. It has been shown that the distribution ratios decrease with increasing amounts of ClO4-, NO3-, and H+. The mechanisms, however, by which the decrease occurs, are different. In the case of increasing perchlorate ion concentration, the decrease in extraction is linear in a log-log plot of the distribution ratio vs. the ionic strength, while in the nitrate case the complexation between nitrate and Am or Eu increases at high nitrate ion concentrations and thereby decreases the distribution ratio in a non-linearway. The decrease in extraction could be caused by changes in activity coefficients that can be explained with specific ion interaction theory (SIT); shielding of the metal ions, and by nitrate complexation with Am and Eu as competing mechanism at high ionic strengths. The separation factor between Am and Eu reaches a maximum at similar to1 M nitrate ion concentration. Thereafter the values decrease with increasing nitrate ion concentrations.

A rheological and SAXS study of the lamellar order in a side-on liquid crystalline block copolymer

We study the structure and shear flow behavior of a side-on liquid crystalline triblock copolymer, named PBA-b-PA444-b-PBA (PBA is poly(butyl acrylate) and PA444 is a poly(acrylate) with a nematic liquid crystal side-on mesogen), in the self-assembled lamellar phase and in the disordered phase. Simultaneous oscillatory shear and small-angle X-ray scattering experiments show that shearing PBA-b-PA444-b-PBA at high frequency and strain amplitudes leads to the alignment of the lamellae with normals perpendicular to the shear direction and to the velocity gradient direction, i.e., in the perpendicular orientation. The order-to-disorder transition temperature (T-ODT) is independent of the applied strain, in contrast to results reported in the literature for coil-coil diblock copolymers, which show an increase in T-ODT with shear rate. It is possible that in our system, T-ODT does not depend on the applied strain because the fluctuations are weaker than those present in coil-coil diblock copolymer systems.

Dietary manipulation of fatty acid composition in lamb meat and its effect on the volatile aroma compounds of grilled lamb

The effect on lamb muscle of five dietary supplements high in polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA) was measured. The supplements were linseed oil, fish oil, protected lipid (high in linoleic acid (C18:2 n-6) and alpha-linolenic acid (C18:3 n-3)), fish oil/marine algae (1:1), and protected lipid/marine algae (1:1). Eicosapentaenoic acid (C20:5 n-3) and docosahexaenoic acid (C22:6 n-3) were found in the highest amounts in the meat from lambs fed diets containing algae. Meat from lambs fed protected lipid had the highest levels of C18:2 n-6 and C18:3 n-3, due to the effectiveness of the protection system. In grilled meat from these animals, volatile compounds derived from n-3 fatty acids were highest in the meat from the lambs fed the fish oil/algae diet, whereas compounds derived from n-6 fatty acids were highest in the meat from the lambs fed the protected lipid diet. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prevalence of disorders of the autism spectrum in a population cohort of children in South Thames: the special needs and autism project (SNAP)

Background Recent reports have suggested that the prevalence of autism and related spectrum disorders (ASDs) is substantially higher than previously recognised. We sought to quantify prevalence of ASDs in children in South Thames, UK. Methods Within a total population cohort of 56946 children aged 9-10 years, we screened all those with a current clinical diagnosis of ASD (n=255) or those judged to be at risk for being an undetected case (n=1515). A stratified subsample (n=255) received a comprehensive diagnostic assessment, including standardised clinical observation, and parent interview assessments of autistic symptoms, language, and intelligence quotient (IQ). Clinical consensus diagnoses of childhood autism and other ASDs were derived. We used a sample weighting procedure to estimate prevalence. Findings The prevalence of childhood autism was 38.9 per 10000 (95% CI 29.9-47.8) and that of other ASDs was 77.2 per 10000 (52.1-102.3), making the total prevalence of all AS Ds 116.1 per 10000 (90.4-141.8). A narrower definition of childhood autism, which combined clinical consensus with instrument criteria for past and current presentation, provided a prevalence of 24.8 per 10 000 (17.6-32.0). The rate of previous local identification was lowest for children of less educated parents. Interpretation Prevalence of autism and related ASDs is substantially greater than previously recognised. Whether the increase is due to better ascertainment, broadening diagnostic criteria, or increased incidence is unclear. Services in health, education, and social care will need to recognise the needs of children with some form of ASD, who constitute 1% of the child population.

Firm size and competition: a comparison of the housebuilding industries in Australia, the UK and the USA

Housebuilding is frequently viewed as an industry full of small firms. However, large firms exist in many countries. Here, a comparative analysis is made of the housebuilding industries in Australia, Britain and the USA. Housebuilding output is found to be much higher in Australia and the USA than in Britain when measured on a per capita basis. At the same time, the degree of market concentration in Australia and the USA is relatively low but in Britain it is far greater, with a few firms having quite substantial market shares. Investigation of the size distribution of the top 100 or so firms ranked by output also shows that the decline in firm size from the largest downwards is more rapid in Britain than elsewhere. The exceptionalism of the British case is put down to two principal reasons. First, the close proximity of Britain’s regions enables housebuilders to diversify successfully across different markets. The gains from such diversification are best achieved by large firms, because they can gain scale benefits in any particular market segment. Second, land shortages induced by a restrictive planning system encourage firms to takeover each other as a quick and beneficial means of acquiring land. The institutional rules of planning also make it difficult for new entrants to come in at the bottom end of the size hierarchy. In this way, concentration grows and a handful of large producers emerge. These conditions do not hold in the other two countries, so their industries are less concentrated. Given the degree of rivalry between firms over land purchases and takeovers, it is difficult to envisage them behaving in a long-term collusive manner, so that competition in British housebuilding is probably not unduly compromised by the exceptional degree of firm concentration. Reforms to lower the restrictions, improve the slow responsiveness and reduce the uncertainties associated with British planning systems’ role in housing supply are likely to greatly improve the ability of new firms to enter housebuilding and all firms’ abilities to increase output in response to rising housing demand. Such reforms would also probably lower overall housebuilding firm concentration over time.

New results on the thermodynamical properties of the climate system

In this paper the authors exploit two equivalent formulations of the average rate of material entropy production in the climate system to propose an approximate splitting between contributions due to vertical and eminently horizontal processes. This approach is based only on 2D radiative fields at the surface and at the top of atmosphere. Using 2D fields at the top of atmosphere alone, lower bounds to the rate of material entropy production and to the intensity of the Lorenz energy cycle are derived. By introducing a measure of the efficiency of the planetary system with respect to horizontal thermodynamic processes, it is possible to gain insight into a previous intuition on the possibility of defining a baroclinic heat engine extracting work from the meridional heat flux. The approximate formula of the material entropy production is verified and used for studying the global thermodynamic properties of climate models (CMs) included in the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI)/phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) dataset in preindustrial climate conditions. It is found that about 90% of the material entropy production is due to vertical processes such as convection, whereas the large-scale meridional heat transport contributes to only about 10% of the total. This suggests that the traditional two-box models used for providing a minimal representation of entropy production in planetary systems are not appropriate, whereas a basic—but conceptually correct—description can be framed in terms of a four-box model. The total material entropy production is typically 55 mW m−2 K−1, with discrepancies on the order of 5%, and CMs’ baroclinic efficiencies are clustered around 0.055. The lower bounds on the intensity of the Lorenz energy cycle featured by CMs are found to be around 1.0–1.5 W m−2, which implies that the derived inequality is rather stringent. When looking at the variability and covariability of the considered thermodynamic quantities, the agreement among CMs is worse, suggesting that the description of feedbacks is more uncertain. The contributions to material entropy production from vertical and horizontal processes are positively correlated, so that no compensation mechanism seems in place. Quite consistently among CMs, the variability of the efficiency of the system is a better proxy for variability of the entropy production due to horizontal processes than that of the large-scale heat flux. The possibility of providing constraints on the 3D dynamics of the fluid envelope based only on 2D observations of radiative fluxes seems promising for the observational study of planets and for testing numerical models.

Ideology and the by-passing of the planning system: case studies of Canary Wharf, London and The Globe, Stockholm

This paper explores the relationship between political ideology and planning in Britain and Sweden, with particular emphasis on the by-passing of the planning system. The prevailing ideology in each country over the last ten years is outlined and the impact on planning identified. The argument is then given in greater depth through case studies of two major projects. For Britain, this involves setting out the main features of Thatcherism and the way that this has changed the purposes underlying planning and created a diversified planning system. This is followed by a case study of Canary Wharf. For Sweden, the consensus culture and the emphasis on participation and decentralisation are discussed. The new planning legislation of 1987 is outlined. These aspects are then contrasted with the fiscal crisis and the development of 'negotiation planning'. These themes are illustrated by a case study of the Globe in Stockholm.

Large is fast, small is tight: determinants of speed and affinity in subunit capture by a periplasmic chaperone

The chaperone/usher pathway assembles surface virulence organelles of Gram-negative bacteria, consisting of fibers of linearly polymerized protein subunits. Fiber subunits are connected through 'donor strand complementation': each subunit completes the immunoglobulin (Ig)-like fold of the neighboring subunit by donating the seventh β-strand in trans. Whereas the folding of Ig domains is a fast first-order process, folding of Ig modules into the fiber conformation is a slow second-order process. Periplasmic chaperones separate this process in two parts by forming transient complexes with subunits. Interactions between chaperones and subunits are also based on the principle of donor strand complementation. In this study, we have performed mutagenesis of the binding motifs of the Caf1M chaperone and Caf1 capsular subunit from Yersinia pestis and analyzed the effect of the mutations on the structure, stability, and kinetics of Caf1M-Caf1 and Caf1-Caf1 interactions. The results suggest that a large hydrophobic effect combined with extensive main-chain hydrogen bonding enables Caf1M to rapidly bind an early folding intermediate of Caf1 and direct its partial folding. The switch from the Caf1M-Caf1 contact to the less hydrophobic, but considerably tighter and less dynamic Caf1-Caf1 contact occurs via the zip-out-zip-in donor strand exchange pathway with pocket 5 acting as the initiation site. Based on these findings, Caf1M was engineered to bind Caf1 faster, tighter, or both faster and tighter. To our knowledge, this is the first successful attempt to rationally design an assembly chaperone with improved chaperone function.

Roll of the rhythmic component in the proactive control of a human hand

In terms of evolution, the strategy of catching prey would have been an important part of survival in a constantly changing environment. A prediction mechanism would have developed to compensate for any delay in the sensory-motor system. In a previous study, “proactive control” was found, in which the motion of the hands preceded the virtual moving target. These results implied that the positive phase shift of the hand motion represents the proactive nature of the visual-motor control system, which attempts to minimize the brief error in the hand motion when the target changes position unexpectedly. In our study, a visual target moves in circle (13 cm diameter) on a computer screen, and each subject is asked to keep track of the target’s motion by the motion of a cursor. As the frequency of the target increases, a rhythmic component was found in the velocity of the cursor in spite of the fact that the velocity of the target was constant. The generation of a rhythmic component cannot be explained simply as a feedback mechanism for the phase shifts of the target and cursor in a sensory-motor system. Therefore, it implies that the rhythmic component was generated to predict the velocity of the target, which is a feed-forward mechanism in the sensory-motor system. Here, we discuss the generation of the rhythmic component and its roll in the feed-forward mechanism.

The changing energy balance of the polar regions in a warmer climate

Energy fluxes for polar regions are examined for two 30-year periods, representing the end of the 20th and 21st centuries, using data from high resolution simulations with the ECHAM5 climate model. The net radiation to space for the present climate agrees well with data from the Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) over the northern polar region but shows an underestimation in planetary albedo for the southern polar region. This suggests there are systematic errors in the atmospheric circulation or in the net surface energy fluxes in the southern polar region. The simulation of the future climate is based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B scenario. The total energy transport is broadly the same for the two 30 year periods, but there is an increase in the moist energy transport of the order of 6 W m−2 and a corresponding reduction in the dry static energy. For the southern polar region the proportion of moist energy transport is larger and the dry static energy correspondingly smaller for both periods. The results suggest a possible mechanism for the warming of the Arctic that is discussed. Changes between the 20th and 21st centuries in the northern polar region show the net ocean surface radiation flux in summer increases ~18W m−2 (24%). For the southern polar region the response is different as there is a decrease in surface solar radiation. We suggest that this is caused by changes in cloudiness associated with the poleward migration of the storm tracks.

Predictable climate impacts of the decadal changes in the ocean in the 1990s

During the 1990s there was a major change in the state of the world's oceans. In particular, the North Atlantic underwent a rapid warming, with sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the subpolar gyre region increasing by 1°C in just a few years. Associated with the changes in SST patterns were changes in the surface climate, in particular, a tendency for warm and dry conditions over areas of North America in all seasons, and warm springs and wet summers over areas of Europe. Here, the extent to which a climate prediction system initialized using observations of the ocean state is able to capture the observed changes in seasonal mean surface climate is investigated. Rather than examining predictions of the mid-1990s North Atlantic warming event itself, this study compares hindcasts started before and after the warming, relative to hindcasts that do not assimilate information. It is demonstrated that the hindcasts capture many aspects of the observed changes in seasonal mean surface climate, especially in North, South, and Central America and in Europe. Furthermore, the prediction system retains skill beyond the first year. Finally, it is shown that, in addition to memory of Atlantic SSTs, successfully predicting Pacific SSTs was likely important for the hindcasts to predict surface climate over North America.

Testing the expectations theory of the term structure in threshold models

We test the expectations theory of the term structure of U.S. interest rates in nonlinear systems. These models allow the response of the change in short rates to past values of the spread to depend upon the level of the spread. The nonlinear system is tested against a linear system, and the results of testing the expectations theory in both models are contrasted. We find that the results of tests of the implications of the expectations theory depend on the size and sign of the spread. The long maturity spread predicts future changes of the short rate only when it is high.

High density lipoprotein: guardian of the vascular system?

The role of low-density lipoprotein in the development of coronary heart disease (CHD) is well recognised. There is also growing evidence that high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) is a powerful inverse predictor for premature CHD and that maintaining a high HDL-C level may guard against atherosclerosis. Patients with low HDL-C levels often also have central obesity, insulin resistance and other features of the metabolic syndrome. This syndrome is both increasingly common and strongly implicated in the growing worldwide epidemic of type 2 diabetes. HDL-C may be increased by lifestyle changes, e.g. weight loss, physical activity and smoking cessation. Pharmacological agents such as fibrates, niacin and statins have also been shown significantly to elevate HDL-C. Although current guidelines are beginning to recognise the protective role of HDL-C level in preventing coronary events, HDL-C should be adopted soon as a target for intervention in its own right.

Decadal predictions of the cooling and freshening of the North Atlantic in the 1960s and the role of ocean circulation

In the 1960s North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SST) cooled rapidly. The magnitude of the cooling was largest in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (SPG), and was coincident with a rapid freshening of the SPG. Here we analyze hindcasts of the 1960s North Atlantic cooling made with the UK Met Office’s decadal prediction system (DePreSys), which is initialised using observations. It is shown that DePreSys captures—with a lead time of several years—the observed cooling and freshening of the North Atlantic SPG. DePreSys also captures changes in SST over the wider North Atlantic and surface climate impacts over the wider region, such as changes in atmospheric circulation in winter and sea ice extent. We show that initialisation of an anomalously weak Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), and hence weak northward heat transport, is crucial for DePreSys to predict the magnitude of the observed cooling. Such an anomalously weak AMOC is not captured when ocean observations are not assimilated (i.e. it is not a forced response in this model). The freshening of the SPG is also dominated by ocean salt transport changes in DePreSys; in particular, the simulation of advective freshwater anomalies analogous to the Great Salinity Anomaly were key. Therefore, DePreSys suggests that ocean dynamics played an important role in the cooling of the North Atlantic in the 1960s, and that this event was predictable.