Effect of micronutrient supplementation on mood in nursing home residents

One third of older people in nursing and/or residential homes have significant symptoms of depression. In younger people, deficiencies in selenium, vitamin C and folate are associated with depression. This study examines the association between micronutrient status and mood before and after supplementation. The objective was to determine whether the administration of selenium, vitamin C and folate improved mood in frail elderly nursing home residents. Mood was assessed using the Hospital Anxiety and Depression rating scale (HAD), and Montgomery-Asberg Depression Rating Scale (MADRS). Micronutrient supplementation was provided for 8 weeks in a double-blinded randomised controlled trial. Significant symptoms of depression (29%) and anxiety (24%) were found at baseline. 67% of patients had low serum concentrations of vitamin C, but no-one was below the reference range for selenium. Depression was significantly associated with selenium levels, but not with folate or vitamin C levels. No individual with a HAD depression score of >= 8, had selenium levels >1.2 mu M. In those patients with higher HAD depression scores, there was a significant reduction in the score and a significant increase in serum selenium levels after 8 weeks of micronutrient supplementation. Placebo group scores were unchanged. This small study concluded that depression was associated with low levels of selenium in frail older individuals. Following 8 weeks of micronutrient supplementation, there was a significant increase in selenium levels and improved symptoms of depression occurred in a subgroup. Copyright (C) 2008 S. Karger AG, Basel

Extending the friction cone algorithm for arbitrary polygon based haptic objects

Most haptic environments are based on single point interactions whereas in practice, object manipulation requires multiple contact points between the object, fingers, thumb and palm. The Friction Cone Algorithm was developed specifically to work well in a multi-finger haptic environment where object manipulation would occur. However, the Friction Cone Algorithm has two shortcomings when applied to polygon meshes: there is no means of transitioning polygon boundaries or feeling non-convex edges. In order to overcome these deficiencies, Face Directed Connection Graphs have been developed as well as a robust method for applying friction to non-convex edges. Both these extensions are described herein, as well as the implementation issues associated with them.

Animal health challenges and veterinary aspects of organic livestock farming identified through a 3 year EU network project

From 2003-2006, an EU network project ‘Sustaining Animal Health and Food Safety in Organic Farming' (SAFO), was carried out with 26 partners from 20 EU-countries and 4 related partners from 4 candidate or new member states. The focus was the integration of animal health and welfare issues in organic farming with food safety aspects. Four very consistent conclusions became apparent: 1) The climatic, physical and socio-economic conditions vary considerably throughout Europe, leading to different livestock farming systems. This limits the possibility for technology transfer between regions, and creates several challenges for a harmonised regulation, 2) Implementing organic standards at farm level does not always ensure that animal health and welfare reach the high ideals of the organic principles, 3) To overcome these deficiencies, organic farmers and farmer organisations need to take ownership of organic values and, 4) In all participating countries, a strong need for training of farmers and in particular veterinarians in animal health promotion and organic principles was identified. The article presents a summary of papers presented at the five SAFO workshops.

Application of a novel optimal control algorithm to a benchmark fed-batch fermentation process

A novel algorithm for solving nonlinear discrete time optimal control problems with model-reality differences is presented. The technique uses Dynamic Integrated System Optimisation and Parameter Estimation (DISOPE) which has been designed to achieve the correct optimal solution in spite of deficiencies in the mathematical model employed in the optimisation procedure. A method based on Broyden's ideas is used for approximating some derivative trajectories required. Ways for handling con straints on both manipulated and state variables are described. Further, a method for coping with batch-to- batch dynamic variations in the process, which are common in practice, is introduced. It is shown that the iterative procedure associated with the algorithm naturally suits applications to batch processes. The algorithm is success fully applied to a benchmark problem consisting of the input profile optimisation of a fed-batch fermentation process.

Dynamic integrated system optimization and parameter estimation for discrete time optimal control of nonlinear systems

An algorithm for solving nonlinear discrete time optimal control problems with model-reality differences is presented. The technique uses Dynamic Integrated System Optimization and Parameter Estimation (DISOPE), which achieves the correct optimal solution in spite of deficiencies in the mathematical model employed in the optimization procedure. A version of the algorithm with a linear-quadratic model-based problem, implemented in the C+ + programming language, is developed and applied to illustrative simulation examples. An analysis of the optimality and convergence properties of the algorithm is also presented.

New developments in batch process input profile optimisation

A novel algorithm for solving nonlinear discrete time optimal control problems with model-reality differences is presented. The technique uses dynamic integrated system optimisation and parameter estimation (DISOPE) which achieves the correct optimal solution in spite of deficiencies in the mathematical model employed in the optimisation procedure. A new method for approximating some Jacobian trajectories required by the algorithm is introduced. It is shown that the iterative procedure associated with the algorithm naturally suits applications to batch chemical processes.

Motivation, rationale and key results from the GERBILS Saharan dust measurement campaign

The Geostationary Earth Radiation Budget Intercomparison of Longwave and Shortwave radiation (GERBILS) was an observational field experiment over North Africa during June 2007. The campaign involved 10 flights by the FAAM BAe-146 research aircraft over southwestern parts of the Sahara Desert and coastal stretches of the Atlantic Ocean. Objectives of the GERBILS campaign included characterisation of mineral dust geographic distribution and physical and optical properties, assessment of the impact upon radiation, validation of satellite remote sensing retrievals, and validation of numerical weather prediction model forecasts of aerosol optical depths (AODs) and size distributions. We provide the motivation behind GERBILS and the experimental design and report the progress made in each of the objectives. We show that mineral dust in the region is relatively non-absorbing (mean single scattering albedo at 550 nm of 0.97) owing to the relatively small fraction of iron oxides present (1–3%), and that detailed spectral radiances are most accurately modelled using irregularly shaped particles. Satellite retrievals over bright desert surfaces are challenging owing to the lack of spectral contrast between the dust and the underlying surface. However, new techniques have been developed which are shown to be in relatively good agreement with AERONET estimates of AOD and with each other. This encouraging result enables relatively robust validation of numerical models which treat the production, transport, and deposition of mineral dust. The dust models themselves are able to represent large-scale synoptically driven dust events to a reasonable degree, but some deficiencies remain both in the Sahara and over the Sahelian region, where cold pool outflow from convective cells associated with the intertropical convergence zone can lead to significant dust production.

The underlying return generating factors for REIT returns: an application of independent component analysis

Multi-factor approaches to analysis of real estate returns have, since the pioneering work of Chan, Hendershott and Sanders (1990), emphasised a macro-variables approach in preference to the latent factor approach that formed the original basis of the arbitrage pricing theory. With increasing use of high frequency data and trading strategies and with a growing emphasis on the risks of extreme events, the macro-variable procedure has some deficiencies. This paper explores a third way, with the use of an alternative to the standard principal components approach – independent components analysis (ICA). ICA seeks higher moment independence and maximises in relation to a chosen risk parameter. We apply an ICA based on kurtosis maximisation to weekly US REIT data using a kurtosis maximising algorithm. The results show that ICA is successful in capturing the kurtosis characteristics of REIT returns, offering possibilities for the development of risk management strategies that are sensitive to extreme events and tail distributions.

The diurnal cycle in the tropics

A global archive of high-resolution (3-hourly, 0.58 latitude–longitude grid) window (11–12 mm) brightness temperature (Tb) data from multiple satellites is being developed by the European Union Cloud Archive User Service (CLAUS) project. It has been used to construct a climatology of the diurnal cycle in convection, cloudiness, and surface temperature for all regions of the Tropics. An example of the application of the climatology to the evaluation of the climate version of the U.K. Met. Office Unified Model (UM), version HadAM3, is presented. The characteristics of the diurnal cycle described by the CLAUS data agree with previous observational studies, demonstrating the universality of the characteristics of the diurnal cycle for land versus ocean, clear sky versus convective regimes. It is shown that oceanic deep convection tends to reach its maximum in the early morning. Continental convection generally peaks in the evening, although there are interesting regional variations, indicative of the effects of complex land–sea and mountain–valley breezes, as well as the life cycle of mesoscale convective systems. A striking result from the analysis of the CLAUS data has been the extent to which the strong diurnal signal over land is spread out over the adjacent oceans, probably through gravity waves of varying depths. These coherent signals can be seen for several hundred kilometers and in some instances, such as over the Bay of Bengal, can lead to substantial diurnal variations in convection and precipitation. The example of the use of the CLAUS data in the evaluation of the Met. Office UM has demonstrated that the model has considerable difficulty in capturing the observed phase of the diurnal cycle in convection, which suggests some fundamental difficulties in the model’s physical parameterizations. Analysis of the diurnal cycle represents a powerful tool for identifying and correcting model deficiencies.

How well do coupled models replicate ocean energetics relevant to ENSO?

Accurate replication of the processes associated with the energetics of the tropical ocean is necessary if coupled GCMs are to simulate the physics of ENSO correctly, including the transfer of energy from the winds to the ocean thermocline and energy dissipation during the ENSO cycle. Here, we analyze ocean energetics in coupled GCMs in terms of two integral parameters describing net energy loss in the system using the approach recently proposed by Brown and Fedorov (J Clim 23:1563–1580, 2010a) and Fedorov (J Clim 20:1108–1117, 2007). These parameters are (1) the efficiency c of the conversion of wind power into the buoyancy power that controls the rate of change of the available potential energy (APE) in the ocean and (2) the e-folding rate a that characterizes the damping of APE by turbulent diffusion and other processes. Estimating these two parameters for coupled models reveals potential deficiencies (and large differences) in how state-of-the-art coupled GCMs reproduce the ocean energetics as compared to ocean-only models and data assimilating models. The majority of the coupled models we analyzed show a lower efficiency (values of c in the range of 10–50% versus 50–60% for ocean-only simulations or reanalysis) and a relatively strong energy damping (values of a-1 in the range 0.4–1 years versus 0.9–1.2 years). These differences in the model energetics appear to reflect differences in the simulated thermal structure of the tropical ocean, the structure of ocean equatorial currents, and deficiencies in the way coupled models simulate ENSO.

Evaluation of ice cloud representation in the ECMWF and UK Met Office models using CloudSat and CALIPSO data

Ice cloud representation in general circulation models remains a challenging task, due to the lack of accurate observations and the complexity of microphysical processes. In this article, we evaluate the ice water content (IWC) and ice cloud fraction statistical distributions from the numerical weather prediction models of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the UK Met Office, exploiting the synergy between the CloudSat radar and CALIPSO lidar. Using the last three weeks of July 2006, we analyse the global ice cloud occurrence as a function of temperature and latitude and show that the models capture the main geographical and temperature-dependent distributions, but overestimate the ice cloud occurrence in the Tropics in the temperature range from −60 °C to −20 °C and in the Antarctic for temperatures higher than −20 °C, but underestimate ice cloud occurrence at very low temperatures. A global statistical comparison of the occurrence of grid-box mean IWC at different temperatures shows that both the mean and range of IWC increases with increasing temperature. Globally, the models capture most of the IWC variability in the temperature range between −60 °C and −5 °C, and also reproduce the observed latitudinal dependencies in the IWC distribution due to different meteorological regimes. Two versions of the ECMWF model are assessed. The recent operational version with a diagnostic representation of precipitating snow and mixed-phase ice cloud fails to represent the IWC distribution in the −20 °C to 0 °C range, but a new version with prognostic variables for liquid water, ice and snow is much closer to the observed distribution. The comparison of models and observations provides a much-needed analysis of the vertical distribution of IWC across the globe, highlighting the ability of the models to reproduce much of the observed variability as well as the deficiencies where further improvements are required.

Are the debates on water privatization missing the point? Experiences from Africa, Asia and Latin America

This paper has two principal aims: first, to unravel some of the arguments mobilized in the controversial privatization debate, and second, to review the scale and nature of private sector provision of water and sanitation in Africa, Asia and Latin America. Despite being vigorously promoted in the policy arena and having been implemented in several countries in the South in the 1990s, privatization has achieved neither the scale nor benefits anticipated. In particular, the paper is pessimistic about the role that privatization can play in achieving the Millennium Development Goals of halving the number of people without access to water and sanitation by 2015. This is not because of some inherent contradiction between private profits and the public good, but because neither publicly nor privately operated utilities are well suited to serving the majority of low-income households with inadequate water and sanitation, and because many of the barriers to service provision in poor settlements can persist whether water and sanitation utilities are publicly or privately operated. This is not to say that well-governed localities should not choose to involve private companies in water and sanitation provision, but it does imply that there is no justification for international agencies and agreements to actively promote greater private sector participation on the grounds that it can significantly reduce deficiencies in water and sanitation services in the South.

Hydrological cycle in the Danube basin in present-day and XXII century simulations by IPCCAR4 global climate models

We present an intercomparison and verification analysis of 20 GCMs (Global Circulation Models) included in the 4th IPCC assessment report regarding their representation of the hydrological cycle on the Danube river basin for 1961–2000 and for the 2161–2200 SRESA1B scenario runs. The basin-scale properties of the hydrological cycle are computed by spatially integrating the precipitation, evaporation, and runoff fields using the Voronoi-Thiessen tessellation formalism. The span of the model- simulated mean annual water balances is of the same order of magnitude of the observed Danube discharge of the Delta; the true value is within the range simulated by the models. Some land components seem to have deficiencies since there are cases of violation of water conservation when annual means are considered. The overall performance and the degree of agreement of the GCMs are comparable to those of the RCMs (Regional Climate Models) analyzed in a previous work, in spite of the much higher resolution and common nesting of the RCMs. The reanalyses are shown to feature several inconsistencies and cannot be used as a verification benchmark for the hydrological cycle in the Danubian region. In the scenario runs, for basically all models the water balance decreases, whereas its interannual variability increases. Changes in the strength of the hydrological cycle are not consistent among models: it is confirmed that capturing the impact of climate change on the hydrological cycle is not an easy task over land areas. Moreover, in several cases we find that qualitatively different behaviors emerge among the models: the ensemble mean does not represent any sort of average model, and often it falls between the models’ clusters.

The case for property in the long run: a cointegration test

The benefits of property in the mixed asset portfolio has been the subject of a number of studies both in the UK and around the world. The traditional way of investigating this issue is to use MPT with the results suggesting that Property should play a significant role in the mixed asset portfolio. These results are not without criticism and generally revolve around quality and quantity of the property data series. To overcome these deficiencies this paper uses cointegration methodology which examines the longer term time series behaviour of various asset markets using a very long run desmoothed data series. Using a number of different cointegration tests, both pair-wise and multivariate, the results show, in unambiguous terms, that there is no contemporous cointegration between the major asset classes Property, Equities and Bonds. The implications of which are that Property does indeed have a risk reducing place to play in the long-run strategic mixed-asset portfolio. A result of particular relevance to institutions such as pension funds and life insurance companies who would wish to hold investments for the long-term.

Developing “Best Practices” for bankers’ pay in line with Basel III

This paper proposes hybrid capital securities as a significant part of senior bank executive incentive compensation in light of Basel III, a new global regulatory standard on bank capital adequacy and liquidity agreed by the members of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision. The committee developed Basel III in a response to the deficiencies in financial regulation brought about by the global financial crisis. Basel III strengthens bank capital requirements and introduces new regulatory requirements on bank liquidity and bank leverage. The hybrid bank capital securities we propose for bank executives’ compensation are preferred shares and subordinated debt that the June 2004 Basel II regulatory framework recognised as other admissible forms of capital. The past two decades have witnessed dramatic increase in performance-related pay in the banking industry. Stakeholders such as shareholders, debtholders and regulators criticise traditional cash and equity-based compensation for encouraging bank executives’ excessive risk taking and short-termism, which has resulted in the failure of risk management in high profile banks during the global financial crisis. Paying compensation in the form of hybrid bank capital securities may align the interests of executives with those of stakeholders and help banks regain their reputation for prudence after years of aggressive risk-taking. Additionally, banks are desperately seeking to raise capital in order to bolster balance sheets damaged by the ongoing credit crisis. Tapping their own senior employees with large incentive compensation packages may be a viable additional source of capital that is politically acceptable in times of large-scale bailouts of the financial sector and economically wise as it aligns the interests of the executives with the need for a stable financial system.