Intelligent agents and distributed models for cooperative task support

Purpose – To describe some research done, as part of an EPSRC funded project, to assist engineers working together on collaborative tasks. Design/methodology/approach – Distributed finite state modelling and agent techniques are used successfully in a new hybrid self-organising decision making system applied to collaborative work support. For the particular application, analysis of the tasks involved has been performed and these tasks are modelled. The system then employs a novel generic agent model, where task and domain knowledge are isolated from the support system, which provides relevant information to the engineers. Findings – The method is applied in the despatch of transmission commands within the control room of The National Grid Company Plc (NGC) – tasks are completed significantly faster when the system is utilised. Research limitations/implications – The paper describes a generic approach and it would be interesting to investigate how well it works in other applications. Practical implications – Although only one application has been studied, the methodology could equally be applied to a general class of cooperative work environments. Originality/value – One key part of the work is the novel generic agent model that enables the task and domain knowledge, which are application specific, to be isolated from the support system, and hence allows the method to be applied in other domains.

Full interference cancellation for two-path relay cooperative networks

This paper proposes the full interference cancellation (FIC) algorithm to cancel the inter-relay interference (IRI) in the two-path cooperative system. Arising from simultaneous data transmission from the source and relay nodes, IRI may significantly decrease the performance if it is not carefully handled. Compared to the existing partial interference cancellation (PIC) scheme, the FIC approach is more robust yet with less complexity. Numerical results are also given to verify the proposed scheme.

Autonomous ship collision free trajectory navigation and control algorithms

A new autonomous ship collision free (ASCF) trajectory navigation and control system has been introduced with a new recursive navigation algorithm based on analytic geometry and convex set theory for ship collision free guidance. The underlying assumption is that the geometric information of ship environment is available in the form of a polygon shaped free space, which may be easily generated from a 2D image or plots relating to physical hazards or other constraints such as collision avoidance regulations. The navigation command is given as a heading command sequence based on generating a way point which falls within a small neighborhood of the current position, and the sequence of the way points along the trajectory are guaranteed to lie within a bounded obstacle free region using convex set theory. A neurofuzzy network predictor which in practice uses only observed input/output data generated by on board sensors or external sensors (or a sensor fusion algorithm), based on using rudder deflection angle for the control of ship heading angle, is utilised in the simulation of an ESSO 190000 dwt tanker model to demonstrate the effectiveness of the system.

Human-computer cooperative teleoperation with time delay

Presents a method for model based bilateral control of master-slave arm with time delay between master and slave arms, where the system supports cooperative action between manual and automatic modes. The method realises efficiencies in master-slave arm control with the simplicities of a computer and the flexibility of a skilled human operator.

An earth-system prediction initiative for the twenty-first century

The necessity and benefits for establishing the international Earth-system Prediction Initiative (EPI) are discussed by scientists associated with the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) World Weather Research Programme (WWRP), World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), International Geosphere–Biosphere Programme (IGBP), Global Climate Observing System (GCOS), and natural-hazards and socioeconomic communities. The proposed initiative will provide research and services to accelerate advances in weather, climate, and Earth system prediction and the use of this information by global societies. It will build upon the WMO, the Group on Earth Observations (GEO), the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) and the International Council for Science (ICSU) to coordinate the effort across the weather, climate, Earth system, natural-hazards, and socioeconomic disciplines. It will require (i) advanced high-performance computing facilities, supporting a worldwide network of research and operational modeling centers, and early warning systems; (ii) science, technology, and education projects to enhance knowledge, awareness, and utilization of weather, climate, environmental, and socioeconomic information; (iii) investments in maintaining existing and developing new observational capabilities; and (iv) infrastructure to transition achievements into operational products and services.

New dimensions in early flood warning across the globe using grand-ensemble weather predictions

Early and effective flood warning is essential to initiate timely measures to reduce loss of life and economic damage. The availability of several global ensemble weather prediction systems through the “THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble” (TIGGE) archive provides an opportunity to explore new dimensions in early flood forecasting and warning. TIGGE data has been used as meteorological input to the European Flood Alert System (EFAS) for a case study of a flood event in Romania in October 2007. Results illustrate that awareness for this case of flooding could have been raised as early as 8 days before the event and how the subsequent forecasts provide increasing insight into the range of possible flood conditions. This first assessment of one flood event illustrates the potential value of the TIGGE archive and the grand-ensembles approach to raise preparedness and thus to reduce the socio-economic impact of floods.

Use of high-resolution NWP rainfall and river flow forecasts for advance warning of the Carlisle flood, north-west England

On the 8 January 2005 the city of Carlisle in north-west England was severely flooded following 2 days of almost continuous rain over the nearby hills. Orographic enhancement of the rain through the seeder–feeder mechanism led to the very high rainfall totals. This paper shows the impact of running the Met Office Unified Model (UM) with a grid spacing of 4 and 1 km compared to the 12 km available at the time of the event. These forecasts, and forecasts from the Nimrod nowcasting system, were fed into the Probability Distributed Model (PDM) to predict river flow at the outlets of two catchments important for flood warning. The results show the benefit of increased resolution in the UM, the benefit of coupling the high-resolution rainfall forecasts to the PDM and the improvement in timeliness of flood warning that might have been possible. Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological Society

The European Flood Alert System and the communication, perception, and use of ensemble predictions for operational flood risk management

Although ensemble prediction systems (EPS) are increasingly promoted as the scientific state-of-the-art for operational flood forecasting, the communication, perception, and use of the resulting alerts have received much less attention. Using a variety of qualitative research methods, including direct user feedback at training workshops, participant observation during site visits to 25 forecasting centres across Europe, and in-depth interviews with 69 forecasters, civil protection officials, and policy makers involved in operational flood risk management in 17 European countries, this article discusses the perception, communication, and use of European Flood Alert System (EFAS) alerts in operational flood management. In particular, this article describes how the design of EFAS alerts has evolved in response to user feedback and desires for a hydrographic-like way of visualizing EFAS outputs. It also documents a variety of forecaster perceptions about the value and skill of EFAS forecasts and the best way of using them to inform operational decision making. EFAS flood alerts were generally welcomed by flood forecasters as a sort of ‘pre-alert’ to spur greater internal vigilance. In most cases, however, they did not lead, by themselves, to further preparatory action or to earlier warnings to the public or emergency services. Their hesitancy to act in response to medium-term, probabilistic alerts highlights some wider institutional obstacles to the hopes in the research community that EPS will be readily embraced by operational forecasters and lead to immediate improvements in flood incident management. The EFAS experience offers lessons for other hydrological services seeking to implement EPS operationally for flood forecasting and warning. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Performance analysis of AF cooperative systems with HPA nonlinearity in semi-blind relays

In this paper, dual-hop amplify-and-forward (AF) cooperative systems in the presence of high-power amplifier (HPA) nonlinearity at semi-blind relays, are investigated. Based on the modified AF cooperative system model taking into account the HPA nonlinearity, the expression for the output signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) at the destination node is derived, where the interference due to both the AF relaying mechanism and the HPA nonlinearity is characterized. The performance of the AF cooperative system under study is evaluated in terms of average symbol error probability (SEP), which is derived using the moment-generating function (MGF) approach, considering transmissions over Nakagami-m fading channels. Numerical results are provided and show the effects of some system parameters, such as the HPA parameters, numbers of relays, quadrature amplitude modulation (QAM) order, Nakagami parameters, on performance.

Analysis and compensation of I/Q imbalance in amplify-and-forward cooperative systems

In this paper, dual-hop amplify-and-forward (AF) cooperative systems in the presence of in-phase and quadrature-phase (I/Q) imbalance, which refers to the mismatch between components in I and Q branches, are investigated. First, we analyze the performance of the considered AF cooperative protocol without compensation for I/Q imbalance as the benchmark. Furthermore, a compensation algorithm for I/Q imbalance is proposed, which makes use of the received signals at the destination, from the source and relay nodes, together with their conjugations to detect the transmitted signal. The performance of the AF cooperative system under study is evaluated in terms of average symbol error probability (SEP), which is derived considering transmission over Rayleigh fading channels. Numerical results are provided and show that the proposed compensation algorithm can efficiently mitigate the effect of I/Q imbalance.

Dual-hop amplify-and-forward cooperative relaying in the presence of Tx and Rx in-phase and quadrature-phase imbalance

In this study, dual-hop channel state information-assisted amplify-and-forward (AF) cooperative systems in the presence of in-phase and quadrature-phase (I/Q) imbalance, which refers to the mismatch between components in the I and Q branches, are investigated. First, the authors analyse the performance of the considered AF cooperative protocol without compensation for the I/Q imbalance as the benchmark. Then, a compensation algorithm for the I/Q imbalance is proposed, which makes use of the received signals at the destination, from the source and the relay nodes, together with their conjugations to detect the transmitted signal. Moreover, the authors study the considered AF cooperative system implemented with the opportunistic relay selection and the proposed compensation mechanism for the I/Q imbalance. The performance of the AF cooperative system under study is evaluated in terms of average symbol error probability, which is derived by considering transmission in a Rayleigh fading environment. Numerical results are provided and show that the proposed compensation algorithm can efficiently mitigate the effect of the I/Q imbalance. On the other hand, it is observed that the AF cooperative system with opportunistic relay selection acquires a performance gain beyond that without relay selection.

Sensory enhancement, a pilot perceptual study of subdermal magnetic implants

Subdermal magnetic implants originated as an art form in the world of body modification. To date an in depth scientific analysis of the benefits of this implant has yet to be established. This research explores the concept of sensory extension of the tactile sense utilising this form of implantation. This relatively simple procedure enables the tactile sense to respond to static and alternating magnetic fields. This is not to say that the underlying biology of the system has changed; i.e. the concept does not increase our tactile frequency response range or sensitivity to pressure, but now does invoke a perceptual response to a stimulus that is not innately available to humans. Within this research two social surveys have been conducted in order to ascertain one, the social acceptance of the general notion of human enhancement, and two the perceptual experiences of individuals with the magnetic implants themselves. In terms of acceptance to the notion of sensory improvement (via implantation) ~39% of the general population questioned responded positively with a further ~25% of the respondents answering with the indecisive response. Thus with careful dissemination a large proportion of individuals may adopt this technology much like this if it were to become available for consumers. Interestingly of the responses collected from the magnetic implants survey ~60% of the respondents actually underwent the implant for magnetic vision purposes. The main contribution of this research however comes from a series of psychophysical testing. In which 7 subjects with subdermal magnetic implants, were cross compared with 7 subjects that had similar magnets superficially attached to their dermis. The experimentation examined multiple psychometric thresholds of the candidates including intensity, frequency and temporal. Whilst relatively simple, the experimental setup for the perceptual experimentation conducted was novel in that custom hardware and protocols were created in order to determine the subjective thresholds of the individuals. Abstract iv The overall purpose of this research is to utilise this concept in high stress scenarios, such as driving or piloting; whereby alerts and warnings could be relayed to an operator without intruding upon their other (typically overloaded) exterior senses (i.e. the auditory and visual senses). Hence each of the thresholding experiments were designed with the intention of utilising the results in the design of signals for information transfer. The findings from the study show that the implanted group of subjects significantly outperformed the superficial group in the absolute intensity threshold experiment, i.e. the implanted group required significantly less force than the superficial group in order to perceive the stimulus. The results for the frequency difference threshold showed no significant difference in the two groups tested. Interestingly however at low frequencies, i.e. 20 and 50 Hz, the ability of the subjects tested to discriminate frequencies significantly increased with more complex waveforms i.e. square and sawtooth, when compared against the typically used sinewave. Furthermore a novel protocol for establishing the temporal gap detection threshold during a temporal numerosity study has been established in this thesis. This experiment measured the subjects’ capability to correctly determine the number of concatenated signals presented to them whilst the time between the signals, referred to as pulses, tended to zero. A significant finding was that when altering the length of, the frequency of, and the number of cycles of the pulses, the time between pulses for correct recognition altered. This finding will ultimately aid in the design of the tactile alerts for this method of information transfer. Preliminary development work for the use of this method of input to the body, in an automotive scenario, is also presented within this thesis in the form of a driving simulation. The overall goal of which is to present warning alerts to a driver, such as rear-to-end collision, or excessive speeds on roads, in order to prevent incidents and penalties from occurring. Discussion on the broader utility of this implant has been presented, reflecting on its potential use as a basis for vibrotactile, and sensory substitution, devices. This discussion furthers with postulations on its use as a human machine interface, as well as how a similar implant could be used within the ear as a hearing aid device.

Improving the health forecasting alert system for cold weather and heat-waves in England: a proof-of-concept using temperature-mortality relationships

Objectives In this study a prototype of a new health forecasting alert system is developed, which is aligned to the approach used in the Met Office’s (MO) National Severe Weather Warning Service (NSWWS). This is in order to improve information available to responders in the health and social care system by linking temperatures more directly to risks of mortality, and developing a system more coherent with other weather alerts. The prototype is compared to the current system in the Cold Weather and Heatwave plans via a case-study approach to verify its potential advantages and shortcomings. Method The prototype health forecasting alert system introduces an “impact vs likelihood matrix” for the health impacts of hot and cold temperatures which is similar to those used operationally for other weather hazards as part of the NSWWS. The impact axis of this matrix is based on existing epidemiological evidence, which shows an increasing relative risk of death at extremes of outdoor temperature beyond a threshold which can be identified epidemiologically. The likelihood axis is based on a probability measure associated with the temperature forecast. The new method is tested for two case studies (one during summer 2013, one during winter 2013), and compared to the performance of the current alert system. Conclusions The prototype shows some clear improvements over the current alert system. It allows for a much greater degree of flexibility, provides more detailed regional information about the health risks associated with periods of extreme temperatures, and is more coherent with other weather alerts which may make it easier for front line responders to use. It will require validation and engagement with stakeholders before it can be considered for use.