Development and evaluation of an Earth-System model – HadGEM2

We describe here the development and evaluation of an Earth system model suitable for centennial-scale climate prediction. The principal new components added to the physical climate model are the terrestrial and ocean ecosystems and gas-phase tropospheric chemistry, along with their coupled interactions. The individual Earth system components are described briefly and the relevant interactions between the components are explained. Because the multiple interactions could lead to unstable feedbacks, we go through a careful process of model spin up to ensure that all components are stable and the interactions balanced. This spun-up configuration is evaluated against observed data for the Earth system components and is generally found to perform very satisfactorily. The reason for the evaluation phase is that the model is to be used for the core climate simulations carried out by the Met Office Hadley Centre for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), so it is essential that addition of the extra complexity does not detract substantially from its climate performance. Localised changes in some specific meteorological variables can be identified, but the impacts on the overall simulation of present day climate are slight. This model is proving valuable both for climate predictions, and for investigating the strengths of biogeochemical feedbacks.

Results of PMIP2 coupled simulations of the mid-Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum, Part 1: experiments and large-scale features

A set of coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations using state of the art climate models is now available for the Last Glacial Maximum and the Mid-Holocene through the second phase of the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP2). This study presents the large-scale features of the simulated climates and compares the new model results to those of the atmospheric models from the first phase of the PMIP, for which sea surface temperature was prescribed or computed using simple slab ocean formulations. We consider the large-scale features of the climate change, pointing out some of the major differences between the different sets of experiments. We show in particular that systematic differences between PMIP1 and PMIP2 simulations are due to the interactive ocean, such as the amplification of the African monsoon at the Mid-Holocene or the change in precipitation in mid-latitudes at the LGM. Also the PMIP2 simulations are in general in better agreement with data than PMIP1 simulations.

Phosphorus fertilisation and large legume species affect jarrah forest restoration after bauxite mining

Re-establishing nutrient-cycling is often a key goal of mine-site restoration. This goal can be achieved by applying fertilisers (particularly P) in combination with seeding N-fixing legumes. However, the effect of this strategy on other key restoration goals such as the establishment and growth of non-leguminous species has received little attention. We investigated the effects of P-application rates either singly, or in combination with seeding seven large understorey legume species, on jarrah forest restoration after bauxite mining. Five years after P application and seeding, legume species richness, density and cover were higher in the legume-seeded treatment. However, the increased establishment of legumes did not lead to increased soil N. Increasing P-application rates from 0 to 80 kg P ha−1 did not affect legume species richness, but significantly reduced legume density and increased legume cover: cover was maximal (∼50%) where 80 kg P ha−1 had been applied with large legume seeds. Increasing P-application had no effect on species richness of non-legume species, but increased the density of weeds and native ephemerals. Cover of non-legume species decreased with increasing P-application rates and was lower in plots where large legumes had been seeded compared with non-seeded plots. There was a significant legume × P interaction on weed and ephemeral density: at 80 kg P ha−1 the decline in density of these groups was greatest where legumes were seeded. In addition, the decline in cover for non-legume species with increasing P was greatest when legumes were seeded. Applying 20 kg P ha−1 significantly increased tree growth compared with tree growth in unfertilised plots, but growth was not increased further at 80 kg ha−1 and tree growth was not affected by seeding large legumes. Taken together, these data indicate that 80 kg ha−1 P-fertiliser in combination with (seeding) large legumes maximised vegetation cover at five years but could be suboptimal for re-establishing a jarrah forest community that, like unmined forest, contains a diverse community of slow-growing re-sprouter species. The species richness and cover of non-legume understorey species, especially the resprouters, was highest in plots that received either 0 or 20 kg ha−1 P and where large legumes had not been seeded. Therefore, our findings suggest that moderation of P-fertiliser and legumes could be the best strategy to fulfil the multiple restoration goals of establishing vegetation cover, while at the same time maximising tree growth and species richness of restored forest.

Intercomparison of methods of coupling between convection and large-scale circulation: 1. Comparison over uniform surface conditions

As part of an international intercomparison project, a set of single column models (SCMs) and cloud-resolving models (CRMs) are run under the weak temperature gradient (WTG) method and the damped gravity wave (DGW) method. For each model, the implementation of the WTG or DGW method involves a simulated column which is coupled to a reference state defined with profiles obtained from the same model in radiative-convective equilibrium. The simulated column has the same surface conditions as the reference state and is initialized with profiles from the reference state. We performed systematic comparison of the behavior of different models under a consistent implementation of the WTG method and the DGW method and systematic comparison of the WTG and DGW methods in models with different physics and numerics. CRMs and SCMs produce a variety of behaviors under both WTG and DGW methods. Some of the models reproduce the reference state while others sustain a large-scale circulation which results in either substantially lower or higher precipitation compared to the value of the reference state. CRMs show a fairly linear relationship between precipitation and circulation strength. SCMs display a wider range of behaviors than CRMs. Some SCMs under the WTG method produce zero precipitation. Within an individual SCM, a DGW simulation and a corresponding WTG simulation can produce different signed circulation. When initialized with a dry troposphere, DGW simulations always result in a precipitating equilibrium state. The greatest sensitivities to the initial moisture conditions occur for multiple stable equilibria in some WTG simulations, corresponding to either a dry equilibrium state when initialized as dry or a precipitating equilibrium state when initialized as moist. Multiple equilibria are seen in more WTG simulations for higher SST. In some models, the existence of multiple equilibria is sensitive to some parameters in the WTG calculations.

Contrasting behaviour of cadmium and zinc in a soil–plant–arthropod system

This study investigates the transfer of Cd and Zn from a soil amended with sewage sludge at rates up to 100 t ha(-1) through a multi-trophic system consisting of barley, the aphid Sitobion avenae and the larvae of the lacewing Chrysoperla carnae. Results show marked differences in the transfer of the two metals. Cadmium was freely accumulated in barley roots, but accumulation in the shoot was restricted to a concentration of around 0.22 mg kg(-1) (dry weight). This limited the transfer of Cd to higher trophic levels and resulted in no significant accumulation of Cd in S. avenae or in C. carnae. Zinc transfer in the system was largely unrestricted, resulting in significant accumulation in roots and shoots, in S. avenae and in C. carnae. Cadmium biomagnification occurred in lacewing pupae, with concentrations up to 3.6 times greater than in aphids. S. avenae biomagnified Zn by a factor of ca. 2.5 at low sludge amendment rates, but biomagnification decreased to a factor of 1.4 at the highest amendment rate. Biomagnification of Zn did not occur in C. carnae, but concentrations were up to 3.5 time higher than in soil. Results are discussed in light of the mechanisms regulating transfer of the two metals in the system.

Impact of palm date consumption on microbiota growth and large intestinal health: a randomised, controlled, cross-over, human intervention study

The reported inverse association between the intake of plant-based foods and a reduction in the prevalence of colorectal cancer may be partly mediated by interactions between insoluble fibre and (poly)phenols and the intestinal microbiota. In the present study, we assessed the impact of palm date consumption, rich in both polyphenols and fibre, on the growth of colonic microbiota and markers of colon cancer risk in a randomised, controlled, cross-over human intervention study. A total of twenty-two healthy human volunteers were randomly assigned to either a control group (maltodextrin-dextrose, 37·1 g) or an intervention group (seven dates, approximately 50 g). Each arm was of 21 d duration and was separated by a 14-d washout period in a cross-over manner. Changes in the growth of microbiota were assessed by fluorescence in situ hybridisation analysis, whereas SCFA levels were assessed using HPLC. Further, ammonia concentrations, faecal water genotoxicity and anti-proliferation ability were also assessed using different assays, which included cell work and the Comet assay. Accordingly, dietary intakes, anthropometric measurements and bowel movement assessment were also carried out. Although the consumption of dates did not induce significant changes in the growth of select bacterial groups or SCFA, there were significant increases in bowel movements and stool frequency (P<0·01; n 21) and significant reductions in stool ammonia concentration (P<0·05; n 21) after consumption of dates, relative to baseline. Furthermore, date fruit intake significantly reduced genotoxicity in human faecal water relative to control (P<0·01; n 21). Our data indicate that consumption of date fruit may reduce colon cancer risk without inducing changes in the microbiota.

Intercomparison of methods of coupling between convection and large-scale circulation. 2: Comparison over non-uniform surface conditions

As part of an international intercomparison project, the weak temperature gradient (WTG) and damped gravity wave (DGW) methods are used to parameterize large-scale dynamics in a set of cloud-resolving models (CRMs) and single column models (SCMs). The WTG or DGW method is implemented using a configuration that couples a model to a reference state defined with profiles obtained from the same model in radiative-convective equilibrium. We investigated the sensitivity of each model to changes in SST, given a fixed reference state. We performed a systematic comparison of the WTG and DGW methods in different models, and a systematic comparison of the behavior of those models using the WTG method and the DGW method. The sensitivity to the SST depends on both the large-scale parameterization method and the choice of the cloud model. In general, SCMs display a wider range of behaviors than CRMs. All CRMs using either the WTG or DGW method show an increase of precipitation with SST, while SCMs show sensitivities which are not always monotonic. CRMs using either the WTG or DGW method show a similar relationship between mean precipitation rate and column-relative humidity, while SCMs exhibit a much wider range of behaviors. DGW simulations produce large-scale velocity profiles which are smoother and less top-heavy compared to those produced by the WTG simulations. These large-scale parameterization methods provide a useful tool to identify the impact of parameterization differences on model behavior in the presence of two-way feedback between convection and the large-scale circulation.

An assessment of the benefits and limitations of the shamba agroforestry system in Kenya and of management and policy requirements for its successful and sustainable reintroduction

The shamba system involves farmers tending tree saplings on state-owned forest land in return for being permitted to intercrop perennial food crops until canopy closure. At one time the system was used throughout all state-owned forest lands in Kenya, accounting for a large proportion of some 160,000 ha. The system should theoretically be mutually beneficial to both local people and the government. However the system has had a chequered past in Kenya due to widespread malpractice and associated environmental degradation. It was last banned in 2003 but in early 2008 field trials were initiated for its reintroduction. This study aimed to: assess the benefits and limitations of the shamba system in Kenya; assess the main influences on the extent to which the limitations and benefits are realised and; consider the management and policy requirements for the system's successful and sustainable operation. Information was obtained from 133 questionnaires using mainly open ended questions and six participatory workshops carried out in forest-adjacent communities on the western slopes of Mount Kenya in Nyeri district. In addition interviews were conducted with key informants from communities and organisations. There was strong desire amongst local people for the system's reintroduction given that it had provided significant food, income and employment. Local perceptions of the failings of the system included firstly mismanagement by government or forest authorities and secondly abuse of the system by shamba farmers and outsiders. Improvements local people considered necessary for the shamba system to work included more accountability and transparency in administration and better rules with respect to plot allocation and stewardship. Ninety-seven percent of respondents said they would like to be more involved in management of the forest and 80% that they were willing to pay for the use of a plot. The study concludes that the structural framework laid down by the 2005 Forests Act, which includes provision for the reimplementation of the shamba system under the new plantation establishment and livelihood improvement scheme (PELIS) [It should be noted that whilst the shamba system was re-branded in 2008 under the acronym PELIS, for the sake of simplicity the authors continue to refer to the 'shamba system' and 'shamba farmers' throughout this paper.], is weakened because insufficient power is likely to be devolved to local people, casting them merely as 'forest users' and the shamba system as a 'forest user right'. In so doing the system's potential to both facilitate and embody the participation of local people in forest management is limited and the long-term sustainability of the new system is questionable. Suggested instruments to address this include some degree of sharing of profits from forest timber, performance related guarantees for farmers to gain a new plot and use of joint committees consisting of local people and the forest authorities for long term management of forests.

Expression and function of the bile acid receptor GpBAR1 (TGR5) in the murine enteric nervous system

BACKGROUND: Bile acids (BAs) regulate cells by activating nuclear and membrane-bound receptors. G protein coupled bile acid receptor 1 (GpBAR1) is a membrane-bound G-protein-coupled receptor that can mediate the rapid, transcription-independent actions of BAs. Although BAs have well-known actions on motility and secretion, nothing is known about the localization and function of GpBAR1 in the gastrointestinal tract. METHODS: We generated an antibody to the C-terminus of human GpBAR1, and characterized the antibody by immunofluorescence and Western blotting of HEK293-GpBAR1-GFP cells. We localized GpBAR1 immunoreactivity (IR) and mRNA in the mouse intestine, and determined the mechanism by which BAs activate GpBAR1 to regulate intestinal motility. KEY RESULTS: The GpBAR1 antibody specifically detected GpBAR1-GFP at the plasma membrane of HEK293 cells, and interacted with proteins corresponding in mass to the GpBAR1-GFP fusion protein. GpBAR1-IR and mRNA were detected in enteric ganglia of the mouse stomach and small and large intestine, and in the muscularis externa and mucosa of the small intestine. Within the myenteric plexus of the intestine, GpBAR1-IR was localized to approximately 50% of all neurons and to >80% of inhibitory motor neurons and descending interneurons expressing nitric oxide synthase. Deoxycholic acid, a GpBAR1 agonist, caused a rapid and sustained inhibition of spontaneous phasic activity of isolated segments of ileum and colon by a neurogenic, cholinergic and nitrergic mechanism, and delayed gastrointestinal transit. CONCLUSIONS & INFERENCES: G protein coupled bile acid receptor 1 is unexpectedly expressed in enteric neurons. Bile acids activate GpBAR1 on inhibitory motor neurons to release nitric oxide and suppress motility, revealing a novel mechanism for the actions of BAs on intestinal motility.

The integrated WRF/urban modelling system: development, evaluation, and applications to urban environmental problems

To bridge the gaps between traditional mesoscale modelling and microscale modelling, the National Center for Atmospheric Research, in collaboration with other agencies and research groups, has developed an integrated urban modelling system coupled to the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model as a community tool to address urban environmental issues. The core of this WRF/urban modelling system consists of the following: (1) three methods with different degrees of freedom to parameterize urban surface processes, ranging from a simple bulk parameterization to a sophisticated multi-layer urban canopy model with an indoor–outdoor exchange sub-model that directly interacts with the atmospheric boundary layer, (2) coupling to fine-scale computational fluid dynamic Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes and Large-Eddy simulation models for transport and dispersion (T&D) applications, (3) procedures to incorporate high-resolution urban land use, building morphology, and anthropogenic heating data using the National Urban Database and Access Portal Tool (NUDAPT), and (4) an urbanized high-resolution land data assimilation system. This paper provides an overview of this modelling system; addresses the daunting challenges of initializing the coupled WRF/urban model and of specifying the potentially vast number of parameters required to execute the WRF/urban model; explores the model sensitivity to these urban parameters; and evaluates the ability of WRF/urban to capture urban heat islands, complex boundary-layer structures aloft, and urban plume T&D for several major metropolitan regions. Recent applications of this modelling system illustrate its promising utility, as a regional climate-modelling tool, to investigate impacts of future urbanization on regional meteorological conditions and on air quality under future climate change scenarios. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society

Sensitivity of the ERA40 reanalysis to the observing system: determination of the global atmospheric circulation from reduced observations

The impact of selected observing systems on the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 40-yr reanalysis (ERA40) is explored by mimicking observational networks of the past. This is accomplished by systematically removing observations from the present observational data base used by ERA40. The observing systems considered are a surface-based system typical of the period prior to 1945/50, obtained by only retaining the surface observations, a terrestrial-based system typical of the period 1950-1979, obtained by removing all space-based observations, and finally a space-based system, obtained by removing all terrestrial observations except those for surface pressure. Experiments using these different observing systems have been limited to seasonal periods selected from the last 10 yr of ERA40. The results show that the surface-based system has severe limitations in reconstructing the atmospheric state of the upper troposphere and stratosphere. The terrestrial system has major limitations in generating the circulation of the Southern Hemisphere with considerable errors in the position and intensity of individual weather systems. The space-based system is able to analyse the larger-scale aspects of the global atmosphere almost as well as the present observing system but performs less well in analysing the smaller-scale aspects as represented by the vorticity field. Here, terrestrial data such as radiosondes and aircraft observations are of paramount importance. The terrestrial system in the form of a limited number of radiosondes in the tropics is also required to analyse the quasi-biennial oscillation phenomenon in a proper way. The results also show the dominance of the satellite observing system in the Southern Hemisphere. These results all indicate that care is required in using current reanalyses in climate studies due to the large inhomogeneity of the available observations, in particular in time.

The moist boundary layer under a mid-latitude weather system

Mid-latitude weather systems are key contributors to the transport of atmospheric water vapour, but less is known about the role of the boundary layer in this transport. We expand a conceptual model of dry boundary-layer structure under synoptic systems to include moist processes, using idealised simulations of cyclone waves to investigate the three-way interaction between the boundary layer, atmospheric moisture and large-scale dynamics. Forced by large-scale thermal advection, boundary-layer structures develop over large areas, analogous to the daytime convective boundary layer, the nocturnal stable boundary layer and transitional regimes between these extremes.

Developing the next-generation climate system models: challenges and achievements

Although climate models have been improving in accuracy and efficiency over the past few decades, it now seems that these incremental improvements may be slowing. As tera/petascale computing becomes massively parallel, our legacy codes are less suitable, and even with the increased resolution that we are now beginning to use, these models cannot represent the multiscale nature of the climate system. This paper argues that it may be time to reconsider the use of adaptive mesh refinement for weather and climate forecasting in order to achieve good scaling and representation of the wide range of spatial scales in the atmosphere and ocean. Furthermore, the challenge of introducing living organisms and human responses into climate system models is only just beginning to be tackled. We do not yet have a clear framework in which to approach the problem, but it is likely to cover such a huge number of different scales and processes that radically different methods may have to be considered. The challenges of multiscale modelling and petascale computing provide an opportunity to consider a fresh approach to numerical modelling of the climate (or Earth) system, which takes advantage of the computational fluid dynamics developments in other fields and brings new perspectives on how to incorporate Earth system processes. This paper reviews some of the current issues in climate (and, by implication, Earth) system modelling, and asks the question whether a new generation of models is needed to tackle these problems.