The benefits of a compute cluster approach to high spatial resolution biodiversity richness modelling: projecting the impact of climate change on Mediterranean flora

High spatial resolution environmental data gives us a better understanding of the environmental factors affecting plant distributions at fine spatial scales. However, large environmental datasets dramatically increase compute times and output species model size stimulating the need for an alternative computing solution. Cluster computing offers such a solution, by allowing both multiple plant species Environmental Niche Models (ENMs) and individual tiles of high spatial resolution models to be computed concurrently on the same compute cluster. We apply our methodology to a case study of 4,209 species of Mediterranean flora (around 17% of species believed present in the biome). We demonstrate a 16 times speed-up of ENM computation time when 16 CPUs were used on the compute cluster. Our custom Java ‘Merge’ and ‘Downsize’ programs reduce ENM output files sizes by 94%. The median 0.98 test AUC score of species ENMs is aided by various species occurrence data filtering techniques. Finally, by calculating the percentage change of individual grid cell values, we map the projected percentages of plant species vulnerable to climate change in the Mediterranean region between 1950–2000 and 2020.

A method for incorporating climate variability in climate change impact assessments: sensitivity of river flows in the Eden catchment to precipitation scenarios

Interest in the impacts of climate change is ever increasing. This is particularly true of the water sector where understanding potential changes in the occurrence of both floods and droughts is important for strategic planning. Climate variability has been shown to have a significant impact on UK climate and accounting for this in future climate cahgne projections is essential to fully anticipate potential future impacts. In this paper a new resampling methodology is developed which includes the variability of both baseline and future precipitation. The resampling methodology is applied to 13 CMIP3 climate models for the 2080s, resulting in an ensemble of monthly precipitation change factors. The change factors are applied to the Eden catchment in eastern Scotland with analysis undertaken for the sensitivity of future river flows to the changes in precipitation. Climate variability is shown to influence the magnitude and direction of change of both precipitation and in turn river flow, which are not apparent without the use of the resampling methodology. The transformation of precipitation changes to river flow changes display a degree of non-linearity due to the catchment's role in buffering the response. The resampling methodology developed in this paper provides a new technique for creating climate change scenarios which incorporate the important issue of climate variability.

A Possible Change in Mass Balance of Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets in the Coming Century

A high-resolution GCM is found to simulate precipitation and surface energy balance of high latitudes with high accuracy. This opens new possibilities to investigate the future mass balance of polar glaciers and its effect on sea level. The surface mass balance of the Greenland and the Antarctic ice sheets is simulated using the ECHAM3 GCM with TI06 horizontal resolution. With this model, two 5-year integrations for the present and doubled carbon dioxide conditions based on the boundary conditions provided by the ECHAM1/T21 transient experiment have been conducted. A comparison of the two experiments over Greenland and Antarctica shows to what extent the effect of climate change on the mass balance on the two largest glaciers of the world can differ. On Greenland one sees a slight decrease in accumulation and a substantial increase in melt, while on Antarctica a large increase in accumulation without melt is projected. Translating the mass balances into terms of sea-level equivalent. the Greenland discharge causes a sea level rise of 1.1 mm yr−1, while the accumulation on Antarctica tends to lower it by 0.9 mm yr−1. The change in the combined mass balance of the two continents is almost zero. The sea level change of the next century can be affected more effectively by the thermal expansion of seawater and the mass balance of smaller glaciers outside of Greenland and Antarctica.

On climate change and cultural geography: farming on the Lizard Peninsula, Cornwall, UK

Climate change as a global problem has moved relatively swiftly into high profile political debates over the last 20 years or so, with a concomitant diffusion from the natural sciences into the social sciences. The study of the human dimensions of climate change has been growing in momentum through research which attempts to describe, evaluate, quantify and model perceptions of climate change, understand more about risk and assess the construction of policy. Cultural geographers’ concerns with the construction of knowledge, the workings of social relations in space and the politics and poetics of place-based identities provide a lens through which personal, collective and institutional responses to climate change can be evaluated using critical and interpretative methodologies. Adopting a cultural geography approach, this paper examines how climate change as a particular environmental discourse is constructed through memory, observation and conversation, as well as materialised in farming practices on the Lizard Peninsula, Cornwall, UK

The role of rules-based compliance systems in the new EU regulatory landscape: perspectives of institutional change and agency

The financial crisis of 2007-2009 and the subsequent reaction of the G20 have created a new global regulatory landscape. Within the EU, change of regulatory institutions is ongoing. The research objective of this study is to understand how institutional changes to the EU regulatory landscape may affect corresponding institutionalized operational practices within financial organizations and to understand the role of agency within this process. Our motivation is to provide insight into these changes from an operational management perspective, as well as to test Thelen and Mahoney?s (2010) modes of institutional change. Consequently, the study researched implementations of an Investment Management System with a rules-based compliance module within financial organizations. The research consulted compliance and risk managers, as well as systems experts. The study suggests that prescriptive regulations are likely to create isomorphic configurations of rules-based compliance systems, which consequently will enable the institutionalization of associated compliance practices. The study reveals the ability of some agents within financial organizations to control the impact of regulatory institutions, not directly, but through the systems and processes they adopt to meet requirements. Furthermore, the research highlights the boundaries and relationships between each mode of change as future avenues of research.

Implications of the altitude of transient 630-nm dayside auroral emissions

The altitude from which transient 630-nm (“red line”) light is emitted in transient dayside auroral breakup events is discussed. Theoretically, the emissions should normally originate from approximately 250 to 550 km. Because the luminosity in dayside breakup events moves in a way that is consistent with newly opened field lines, they have been interpreted as the ionospheric signatures of transient reconnection at the dayside magnetopause. For this model the importance of these events for convection can be assessed from the rate of change of their area. The area derived from analysis of images from an all-sky camera and meridian scans from a photometer, however, depends on the square of the assumed emission altitude. From field line mapping, it is shown for both a westward and an eastward moving event, that the main 557.7-nm emission comes from the edge of the 630 nm transient, where a flux transfer event model would place the upward field-aligned current (on the poleward and equatorward edge, respectively). The observing geometry for the two cases presented is such that this is true, irrespective of the 630-nm emission altitude. From comparisons with the European incoherent scatter radar data for the westward (interplanetary magnetic field By > 0) event on January 12, 1988, the 630-nm emission appears to emanate from an altitude of 250 km, and to be accompanied by some 557.7-nm “green-line” emission. However, for a large, eastward moving event observed on January 9, 1989, there is evidence that the emission altitude is considerably greater and, in this case, the only 557.7-nm emission is that on the equatorward edge of the event, consistent with a higher altitude 630-nm excitation source. Assuming an emission altitude of 250 km for this event yields a reconnection voltage of >50 kV during the reconnection burst but a contribution to the convection voltage of >15 kV. However, from the motion of the event we infer that the luminosity peaks at an altitude in the range of 400 and 500 km, and for the top of this range the reconnection and average convection voltages would be increased to >200 kV and >60 kV, respectively. (These are all minimum estimates because the event extends in longitude beyond the field-of-view of the camera). Hence the higher-emission altitude has a highly significant implication, namely that the reconnection bursts which cause the dayside breakup events could explain most of the voltage placed across the magnetosphere and polar cap by the solar wind flow. Analysis of the plasma density and temperatures during the event on January 9, 1989, predicts the required thermal excitation of significant 630-nm intensities at altitudes of 400-500 km.

Schizophrenic urban reality: the changing urban landscapes of the Mediterranean region and developmental influences

This chapter considers aspects of urban design and associated identity of place that shifts over time and has to identify with aspects of economic pressures to develop as well as cultural concerns about change.

How does a weakened Atlantic thermohaline circulation lead to an intensification of the ENSO-south Asian summer monsoon interaction?

This study investigates the change of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-South Asian summer monsoon interaction in response to a weakened Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) by applying an additional freshwater flux into the North Atlantic. The simulated results indicate that the weakened THC leads to intensified ENSO-South Asian summer monsoon relationship and enhanced South Asian summer monsoon interannual variability. Furthermore, it is suggested that this intensification of the ENSO-monsoon relationship is likely due to the enhanced ENSO variability induced by the weakened THC. This study indicates that the low frequency fluctuation of Atlantic SSTs might have an influence on South Asian summer monsoon interannual variability and the ENSO-monsoon interaction, and suggests a nonlocal mechanism for the observed decadal-multidecadal modulation of ENSO-monsoon relationship.

Rational modification of the hierarchy of intermolecular interactions in molecular crystal structures by using tunable halogen bonds

A family of 16 isomolecular salts (3-XpyH)(2)[MX'(4)] (3-XpyH=3-halopyridinium; M=Co, Zn; X=(F), Cl, Br, (I); X'=Cl, Br, I) each containing rigid organic cations and tetrahedral halometallate anions has been prepared and characterized by X-ray single crystal and/or powder diffraction. Their crystal structures reflect the competition and cooperation between non-covalent interactions: N-H center dot center dot center dot X'-M hydrogen bonds, C-X center dot center dot center dot X'-M halogen bonds and pi-pi stacking. The latter are essentially unchanged in strength across the series, but both halogen bonds and hydrogen bonds are modified in strength upon changing the halogens involved. Changing the organic halogen (X) from F to I strengthens the C-X center dot center dot center dot X'-M halogen bonds, whereas an analogous change of the inorganic halogen (X') weakens both halogen bonds and N-H center dot center dot center dot X'-M hydrogen bonds. By so tuning the strength of the putative halogen bonds from repulsive to weak to moderately strong attractive interactions, the hierarchy of the interactions has been modified rationally leading to systematic changes in crystal packing. Three classes of crystal structure are obtained. In type A (C-F center dot center dot center dot X'-M) halogen bonds are absent. The structure is directed by N-H center dot center dot center dot X'-M hydrogen bonds and pi-stacking interactions. In type B structures, involving small organic halogens (X) and large inorganic halogens (X'), long (weak) C-X center dot center dot center dot X'-M interactions are observed with type I halogen-halogen interaction geometries (C-X center dot center dot center dot X' approximate to X center dot center dot center dot X'-M approximate to 155 degrees), but hydrogen bonds still dominate. Thus, minor but quite significant perturbations from the type A structure arise. In type C, involving larger organic halogens (X) and smaller inorganic halogens (X'), stronger halogen bonds are formed with a type II halogen-halogen interaction geometry (C-X center dot center dot center dot X' approximate to 180 degrees; X center dot center dot center dot X'-M approximate to 110 degrees) that is electrostatically attractive. The halogen bonds play a major role alongside hydrogen bonds in directing the type C structures, which as a result are quite different from type A and B.

Climate entropy budget of the HadCM3 atmosphere-ocean general circulation model and of FAMOUS, its low resolution version

The entropy budget is calculated of the coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model HadCM3. Estimates of the different entropy sources and sinks of the climate system are obtained directly from the diabatic heating terms, and an approximate estimate of the planetary entropy production is also provided. The rate of material entropy production of the climate system is found to be ∼50 mW m−2 K−1, a value intermediate in the range 30–70 mW m−2 K−1 previously reported from different models. The largest part of this is due to sensible and latent heat transport (∼38 mW m−2 K−1). Another 13 mW m−2 K−1 is due to dissipation of kinetic energy in the atmosphere by friction and Reynolds stresses. Numerical entropy production in the atmosphere dynamical core is found to be about 0.7 mW m−2 K−1. The material entropy production within the ocean due to turbulent mixing is ∼1 mW m−2 K−1, a very small contribution to the material entropy production of the climate system. The rate of change of entropy of the model climate system is about 1 mW m−2 K−1 or less, which is comparable with the typical size of the fluctuations of the entropy sources due to interannual variability, and a more accurate closure of the budget than achieved by previous analyses. Results are similar for FAMOUS, which has a lower spatial resolution but similar formulation to HadCM3, while more substantial differences are found with respect to other models, suggesting that the formulation of the model has an important influence on the climate entropy budget. Since this is the first diagnosis of the entropy budget in a climate model of the type and complexity used for projection of twenty-first century climate change, it would be valuable if similar analyses were carried out for other such models.

Driving places - Marc Augé, non-places, and the geographies of England's M1 motorway

In this article I provide a critical account of the 'placing' of England's M1 motor-way. I start by critiquing Marc Auge's anthropological writings on 'non-places' which have provided a common point of reference for academics discussing spaces of travel, consumption and exchange in the contemporary world. I argue that Auge's ethnology of supermodernity results in a rather partial account of these sites, that he overstates the novelty of contemporary experiences of these spaces, and that he fails to acknowledge the heterogeneity and materiality of the social networks bound up with the production of non-places/places. I suggest that, rather than focusing on the presences and absences associated with the polarities of place and non-place, academics should examine the multiple, partial, dynamic and relational 'placings' which arise through the diverse performances and movements associated with travel, consumption and exchange. I then trace the topologies of England's M1 motorway, examining some of the different ways in which the motorway has been assembled, performed and placed over the past 45 years.

Assessing the discourses and practices of urban regeneration in a growing region

Most research on the discourses and practices of urban regeneration in-the UK has examined case studies located in areas of relative socio-economic distress. Less research has been undertaken on regeneration projects and agendas in areas characterise by strong economic growth. Yet, it is in such places that some of the best examples of the discourses, practices and impacts of contemporary urban regeneration can be. found. In some areas of high demand regeneration projects have used inner urban brownfield sites as locations for new investment. With the New Labour government's urban policy agendas targeting similar forms of regeneration, an examination of completed or on-going schemes is timely and relevant to debates over the direction that policy should take. This paper, drawing on a study of urban regeneration in one of England's, fastest growing towns, Reading in Berkshire, examines the discourses, practices and impacts of redevelopment schemes during the 1990s and 2000s. Reading's experiences have received national attention and have been hailed as a model for other urban areas to follow. The research documents the discursive and concrete aspects of local regeneration and examines the ways in which specific priorities and defined problems have come to dominate agendas. Collectively, the study argues that market-driven objectives come to dominate regeneration agendas, even in areas of strong demand where development agencies wield a relatively high degree of influence. Such regeneration plays a symbolic and practical role in creating new forms of exclusion and interpretations of place. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

LiDAR mapping of tidal marshes for ecogeomorphological modelling in the TIDE project

The European research project TIDE (Tidal Inlets Dynamics and Environment) is developing and validating coupled models describing the morphological, biological and ecological evolution of tidal environments. The interactions between the physical and biological processes occurring in these regions requires that the system be studied as a whole rather than as separate parts. Extensive use of remote sensing including LiDAR is being made to provide validation data for the modelling. This paper describes the different uses of LiDAR within the project and their relevance to the TIDE science objectives. LiDAR data have been acquired from three different environments, the Venice Lagoon in Italy, Morecambe Bay in England, and the Eden estuary in Scotland. LiDAR accuracy at each site has been evaluated using ground reference data acquired with differential GPS. A semi-automatic technique has been developed to extract tidal channel networks from LiDAR data either used alone or fused with aerial photography. While the resulting networks may require some correction, the procedure does allow network extraction over large areas using objective criteria and reduces fieldwork requirements. The networks extracted may subsequently be used in geomorphological analyses, for example to describe the drainage patterns induced by networks and to examine the rate of change of networks. Estimation of the heights of the low and sparse vegetation on marshes is being investigated by analysis of the statistical distribution of the measured LiDAR heights. Species having different mean heights may be separated using the first-order moments of the height distribution.

How soccer players head the ball: a test of optic acceleration cancellation theory with virtual reality

We measured the movements of soccer players heading a football in a fully immersive virtual reality environment. In mid-flight the ball’s trajectory was altered from its normal quasi-parabolic path to a linear one, producing a jump in the rate of change of the angle of elevation of gaze (α) from player to ball. One reaction time later the players adjusted their speed so that the rate of change of α increased when it had been reduced and reduced it when it had been increased. Since the result of the player’s movement was to regain a value of the rate of change close to that before the disturbance, the data suggest that the players have an expectation of, and memory for, the pattern that the rate of change of α will follow during the flight. The results support the general claim that players intercepting balls use servo control strategies and are consistent with the particular claim of Optic Acceleration Cancellation theory that the servo strategy is to allow α to increase at a steadily decreasing rate.

Impact of land cover changes on the South African climate

The Joint UK Land Environmental Simulator (JULES) was run offline to investigate the sensitivity of land surface type changes over South Africa. Sensitivity tests were made in idealised experiments where the actual land surface cover is replaced by a single homogeneous surface type. The vegetation surface types on which some of the experiments were made are static. Experimental tests were evaluated against the control. The model results show among others that the change of the surface cover results in changes of other variables such as soil moisture, albedo, net radiation and etc. These changes are also visible in the spin up process. The model shows different surfaces spinning up at different cycles. Because JULES is the land surface model of Unified Model, the results could be more physically meaningful if it is coupled to the Unified Model.