Bayesian design and conduct of phase II single-arm clinical trials with binary outcomes: a tutorial

The aim of phase II single-arm clinical trials of a new drug is to determine whether it has sufficient promising activity to warrant its further development. For the last several years Bayesian statistical methods have been proposed and used. Bayesian approaches are ideal for earlier phase trials as they take into account information that accrues during a trial. Predictive probabilities are then updated and so become more accurate as the trial progresses. Suitable priors can act as pseudo samples, which make small sample clinical trials more informative. Thus patients have better chances to receive better treatments. The goal of this paper is to provide a tutorial for statisticians who use Bayesian methods for the first time or investigators who have some statistical background. In addition, real data from three clinical trials are presented as examples to illustrate how to conduct a Bayesian approach for phase II single-arm clinical trials with binary outcomes.

Mechanism of the antioxidant to pro-oxidant switch in the behavior of dehydroascorbate during LDL oxidation by copper(II) ions

Oxidised low density lipoprotein (LDL) may be involved in the pathogenesis of atherosclerosis. We have therefore investigated the mechanisms underlying the antioxidant/pro-oxidant behavior of dehydroascorbate, the oxidation product of ascorbic acid, toward LDL incubated With Cu2+ ions. By monitoring lipid peroxidation through the formation of conjugated dienes and lipid hydroperoxides, we show that the pro-oxidant activity of dehydroascorbate is critically dependent on the presence of lipid hydroperoxides, which accumulate during the early stages of oxidation. Using electron paramagnetic resonance spectroscopy, we show that dehydroascorbate amplifies the generation of alkoxyl radicals during the interaction of copper ions with the model alkyl hydroperoxide, tert-butylhydroperoxide. Under continuous-flow conditions, a prominent doublet signal was detected, which we attribute to both the erythroascorbate and ascorbate free radicals. On this basis, we propose that the pro-oxidant activity of dehydroascorbate toward LDL is due to its known spontaneous interconversion to erythroascorbate and ascorbate, which reduce Cu2+ to Cu+ and thereby promote the decomposition of lipid hydroperoxides. Various mechanisms, including copper chelation and Cu+ oxidation, are suggested to underlie the antioxidant behavior of dehydroascorbate in LDL that is essentially free of lipid hydroperoxides. (C) 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Bayesian decision procedures for binary and continuous bivariate dose-escalation studies

In this paper, Bayesian decision procedures are developed for dose-escalation studies based on binary measures of undesirable events and continuous measures of therapeutic benefit. The methods generalize earlier approaches where undesirable events and therapeutic benefit are both binary. A logistic regression model is used to model the binary responses, while a linear regression model is used to model the continuous responses. Prior distributions for the unknown model parameters are suggested. A gain function is discussed and an optional safety constraint is included. Copyright (C) 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The mechanism of bacterial indigo reduction

The reduction of water-insoluble indigo by the recently isolated moderate thermophile, Clostridium isatidis, has been studied with the aim of developing a sustainable technology for industrial indigo reduction. The ability to reduce indigo was not shared with C. aurantibutyricum, C. celatum and C. papyrosolvens, but C. papyrosolvens could reduce indigo carmine (5,5-indigosulfonic acid), a soluble indigo derivative. The supernatant from cultures of C. isatidis, but not from cultures of the other bacteria tested, decreased indigo particle size to one-tenth diameter. Addition of madder powder, anthraquinone-2,6-disulfonic acid, and humic acid all stimulated indigo reduction by C. isatidis. Redox potentials of cultures of C. isatidis were about 100 mV more negative than those of C. aurantibutyricum, C. celatum and C. papyrosolvens, and reached –600 mV versus the SCE in the presence of indigo, but potentials were not consistently affected by the addition of the quinone compounds, which probably act by modifying the surface of the bacteria or indigo particles. It is concluded that C. isatidis can reduce indigo because (1) it produces an extracellular factor that decreases indigo particle size, and (2) it generates a sufficiently reducing potential.

A practical approach to a multi-level analysis with a sparse binary outcome within a large surgical trial

Objectives: To assess the potential source of variation that surgeon may add to patient outcome in a clinical trial of surgical procedures. Methods: Two large (n = 1380) parallel multicentre randomized surgical trials were undertaken to compare laparoscopically assisted hysterectomy with conventional methods of abdominal and vaginal hysterectomy; involving 43 surgeons. The primary end point of the trial was the occurrence of at least one major complication. Patients were nested within surgeons giving the data set a hierarchical structure. A total of 10% of patients had at least one major complication, that is, a sparse binary outcome variable. A linear mixed logistic regression model (with logit link function) was used to model the probability of a major complication, with surgeon fitted as a random effect. Models were fitted using the method of maximum likelihood in SAS((R)). Results: There were many convergence problems. These were resolved using a variety of approaches including; treating all effects as fixed for the initial model building; modelling the variance of a parameter on a logarithmic scale and centring of continuous covariates. The initial model building process indicated no significant 'type of operation' across surgeon interaction effect in either trial, the 'type of operation' term was highly significant in the abdominal trial, and the 'surgeon' term was not significant in either trial. Conclusions: The analysis did not find a surgeon effect but it is difficult to conclude that there was not a difference between surgeons. The statistical test may have lacked sufficient power, the variance estimates were small with large standard errors, indicating that the precision of the variance estimates may be questionable.

The structure and mechanism of serine acetyltransferase from Escherichia coli

Serine acetyltransferase (SAT) catalyzes the first step of cysteine synthesis in microorganisms and higher plants. Here we present the 2.2 Angstrom crystal structure of SAT from Escherichia coli, which is a dimer of trimers, in complex with cysteine. The SAT monomer consists of an amino-terminal alpha-helical domain and a carboxyl- terminal left-handed beta-helix. We identify His(158) and Asp(143) as essential residues that form a catalytic triad with the substrate for acetyl transfer. This structure shows the mechanism by which cysteine inhibits SAT activity and thus controls its own synthesis. Cysteine is found to bind at the serine substrate site and not the acetyl-CoA site that had been reported previously. On the basis of the geometry around the cysteine binding site, we are able to suggest a mechanism for the O-acetylation of serine by SAT. We also compare the structure of SAT with other left-handed beta-helical structures.

Investigation of the mechanism of agonist and inverse agonist action at D-2 dopamine receptors

This study investigated, for the D-2 dopamine receptor, the relation between the ability of agonists and inverse agonists to stabilise different states of the receptor and their relative efficacies. K-i values for agonists were determined in competition, versus the binding of the antagonist [H-3]spiperone. Competition data were fitted best by a two-binding site model (with the exception of bromocriptine, for which a one-binding site model provided the best fit) and agonist affinities for the higher (K-h) (G protein-coupled) and lower affinity (K-l) (G protein-uncoupled) sites determined. Ki values for agonists were also determined in competition versus the binding of the agonist [H-3]N-propylnorapomorphine (NPA) to provide a second estimate of K-h,. Maximal agonist effects (E-max) and their potencies (EC50) were determined from concentration-response curves for agonist stimulation of guanosine-5'-O-(3-[S-32] thiotriphosphate) ([S-35]GTPgammaS) binding. The ability of agonists to stabilise the G protein-coupled state of the receptor (K-l/K-h, determined from ligand-binding assays) did not correlate with either of two measures of relative efficacy (relative E-max, Kl/EC50) of agonists determined in [S-35]GTPgammaS-binding assays, when the data for all of the compounds tested were analysed For a subset of compounds, however, there was a relation between K-l/K-h and E-max.. Competition-binding data versus [H-3]spiperone and [H-3]NPA for a range of inverse agonists were fitted best by a one-binding site model. K-i values for the inverse agonists tested were slightly lower in competition versus [H-3]NPA compared to [H-3]spiperone. These data do not provide support for the idea that inverse agonists act by binding preferentially to the ground state of the receptor. (C) 2004 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Has the mechanism by which the endocrine placenta scavenges the mother whilst sparing the foetus been unmasked?

The endocrine placenta has a dilemma; it shares the foetal circulation and yet it needs to secrete active peptide hormones into the maternal circulation to control her metabolism to meet the demands of the growing foetus. Simultaneously, it needs to allow the endocrine systems of the foetus to develop independently. This article will describe how peptide hormones are processed from inactive intermediates and will propose a hypothesis of how the placenta has revised this process to protect the foetus from the potentially damaging affects of these products.

Global iron-dependent gene regulation in Escherichia coli - A new mechanism for iron homeostasis

Organisms generally respond to iron deficiency by increasing their capacity to take up iron and by consuming intracellular iron stores. Escherichia coli, in which iron metabolism is particularly well understood, contains at least 7 iron-acquisition systems encoded by 35 iron-repressed genes. This Fe-dependent repression is mediated by a transcriptional repressor, Fur ( ferric uptake regulation), which also controls genes involved in other processes such as iron storage, the Tricarboxylic Acid Cycle, pathogenicity, and redox-stress resistance. Our macroarray-based global analysis of iron- and Fur-dependent gene expression in E. coli has revealed several novel Fur-repressed genes likely to specify at least three additional iron- transport pathways. Interestingly, a large group of energy metabolism genes was found to be iron and Fur induced. Many of these genes encode iron- rich respiratory complexes. This iron- and Fur-dependent regulation appears to represent a novel iron-homeostatic mechanism whereby the synthesis of many iron- containing proteins is repressed under iron- restricted conditions. This mechanism thus accounts for the low iron contents of fur mutants and explains how E. coli can modulate its iron requirements. Analysis of Fe-55-labeled E. coli proteins revealed a marked decrease in iron- protein composition for the fur mutant, and visible and EPR spectroscopy showed major reductions in cytochrome b and d levels, and in iron- sulfur cluster contents for the chelator-treated wild-type and/or fur mutant, correlating well with the array and quantitative RT-PCR data. In combination, the results provide compelling evidence for the regulation of intracellular iron consumption by the Fe2+-Fur complex.

Direct time-resolved study of the gas-phase reactions of germylene with ethyl- and diethylgermane: absolute rate constants, temperature dependences, and mechanism

Time-resolved studies of germylene, GeH2, generated by the 193 nm laser flash photolysis of 3,4-dimethyl-1-germacyclopent-3-ene, have been carried out to obtain rate constants for its bimolecular reactions with ethyl- and diethylgermanes in the gas phase. The reactions were studied over the pressure range 1-100 Torr with SF6 as bath gas and at five temperatures in the range 297-564 K. Only slight pressure dependences were found for GeH2 + EtGeH3 (399, 486, and 564 K). The high pressure rate constants gave the following Arrhenius parameters: for GeH2 + EtGeH3, log A = -10.75 +/- 0.08 and E-a = -6.7 +/- 0.6 kJ mol(-1); for GeH2 + Et2GeH2, log A = -10.68 +/- 0.11 and E-a = -6.95 +/- 0.80 kJ mol(-1). These are consistent with fast, near collision-controlled, association processes at 298 K. RRKM modeling calculations are, for the most part, consistent with the observed pressure dependence of GeH2 + EtGeH3. The ethyl substituent effects have been extracted from these results and are much larger than the analogous methyl substituent effects in the SiH2 + methylsilane reaction series. This is consistent with a mechanistic model for Ge-H insertion in which the intermediate complex has a sizable secondary barrier to rearrangement.

First crystallographic signature of an acyclic peptide nanorod: molecular mechanism of nanorod formation by a self-assembled tetrapeptide

A terminally protected acyclic tetrapeptide Boc-Aib-Val-Aib-beta-Ala-OMe 1 (Aib: alpha-aminoisobutyric acid, beta-Ala: beta-Alanine) self-assembles into a continuous hydrogen-bonded supramolecular helix with an average diameter of 10Angstrom (1nm) starting from a double bend molecular conformation in crystals and further self-assembly of this supramolecular architecture leads to the formation of polydisperse nanorods of diameters 10-40 nm.

Monodisperse binary nanocomposite in silica with enhanced magnetization for magnetic separation

The majority of research on magnetic nanoparticles has focused on optical, electrical, and magnetic storage areas. Recently, the application of magnetic nanoparticles as magnetically separable nanovehicles for chemical or biological species has become an area of intensive research but with rather different challenging criteria that are yet to be addressed. For example, the enhancement of intrinsically weak magnetic properties, avoidance of magnetic interactions among particles, and improvement of the stability of the nanoparticles remain key issues. Here, it is demonstrated using sequential nanochemistry preparation techniques that exchange-coupled nanomagnets, such as FePt-Fe3Pt or FePt-Fe3O4 with dramatically enhanced magnetization, can be placed inside a silica nanosphere. The advantages of enhanced magnetization and the provision of protective coating and anchored sites on the silica shell surface render these new coated particles suitable for use in magnetic separation.

A comparison of two time-domain analysis procedures in the determination of VO2 kinetics by pseudorandom binary sequence exercise testing

The purpose of this study was to apply and compare two time-domain analysis procedures in the determination of oxygen uptake (VO2) kinetics in response to a pseudorandom binary sequence (PRBS) exercise test. PRBS exercise tests have typically been analysed in the frequency domain. However, the complex interpretation of frequency responses may have limited the application of this procedure in both sporting and clinical contexts, where a single time measurement would facilitate subject comparison. The relative potential of both a mean response time (MRT) and a peak cross-correlation time (PCCT) was investigated. This study was divided into two parts: a test-retest reliability study (part A), in which 10 healthy male subjects completed two identical PRBS exercise tests, and a comparison of the VO2 kinetics of 12 elite endurance runners (ER) and 12 elite sprinters (SR; part B). In part A, 95% limits of agreement were calculated for comparison between MRT and PCCT. The results of part A showed no significant difference between test and retest as assessed by MRT [mean (SD) 42.2 (4.2) s and 43.8 (6.9) s] or by PCCT [21.8 (3.7) s and 22.7 (4.5) s]. Measurement error (%) was lower for MRT in comparison with PCCT (16% and 25%, respectively). In part B of the study, the VO2 kinetics of ER were significantly faster than those of SR, as assessed by MRT [33.4 (3.4) s and 39.9 (7.1) s, respectively; P<0.01] and PCCT [20.9 (3.8) s and 24.8 (4.5) s; P < 0.05]. It is possible that either analysis procedure could provide a single test measurement Of VO2 kinetics; however, the greater reliability of the MRT data suggests that this method has more potential for development in the assessment Of VO2 kinetics by PRBS exercise testing.

An insight into the mechanism of protein separation by colloidal gas aphrons (CGA) generated from ionic surfactants

Colloidal gas aphrons (CGA), which are surfactant stabilised microbubbles, have been previously applied for the recovery of proteins from model mixtures and a few studies have demonstrated the potential of these dispersions for the selective recovery of proteins from complex mixtures. However there is a lack of understanding of the mechanism of separation and forces governing the selectivity of the separation. In this paper a mechanistic study is carried out to determine the main factors and forces influencing the selectivity of separation of whey proteins with CGA generated from ionic surfactants. Two different separation strategies were followed: (i) separation of lactoferrin and lactoperoxidase by anionic CGA generated from a solution of sodium bis-(2-ethyl hexyl) sulfosuccinate (AOT); (ii) separation of beta-lactoglobulin by cationic CGA generated from a solution of cetyltrimethylammonium bromide (CTAB). Separation results indicate that electrostatic interactions are the main forces determining the selectivity however these could not completely explain the selectivities obtained following both strategies. Protein-surfactant interactions were studied by measuring the zeta potential changes on individual proteins upon addition of surfactant and at varying pH. Interestingly strongest electrostatic interactions were measured at those pH and surfactant to protein mass ratios which were optimum for protein separation. Effect of surfactant on protein conformation was determined by measuring the change in fluorescence intensity upon addition of surfactant at varying pH. Differences in the fluorescence patterns were detected among proteins which were correlated to differences in their conformational features which could in turn explain their different separation behaviour. The effect of conformation on selectivity was further proven by experiments in which conformational changes were induced by pre-treatment of whey (heating) and by storage at 4 degrees C. Overall it can be concluded that separation of proteins by ionic CGA is driven mainly by electrostatic interactions however conformational features will finally determine the selectivity of the separation with competitive adsorption having also an effect. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.