Measuring significant variability characteristics: An assessment of three UK renewables

The variability of renewable energy is widely recognised as a challenge for integrating high levels of renewable generation into electricity systems. However, to explore its implications effectively, variability itself should first be clearly understood. This is particularly true for national electricity systems with high planned penetration of renewables and limited interconnection such as the UK. Variability cannot be considered as a distinct resource property with a single measurable parameter, but is a multi-faceted concept best described by a range of distinct characteristics. This paper identifies relevant characteristics of variability, and considers their implications for energy research. This is done through analysis of wind, solar and tidal current resources, with a primary focus on the Bristol Channel region in the UK. The relationship with electricity demand is considered, alongside the potential benefits of resource diversity. Analysis is presented in terms of persistence, distribution, frequency and correlation between supply and demand. Marked differences are seen between the behaviours of the individual resources, and these give rise to a range of different implications for system integration. Wind shows strong persistence and a useful seasonal pattern, but also a high spread in energy levels at timescales beyond one or two days. The solar resource is most closely correlated with electricity demand, but is undermined by night-time zero values and an even greater spread of monthly energy delivered than wind. In contrast, the tidal resource exhibits very low persistence, but also much greater consistency in energy values assessed across monthly time scales. Whilst this paper focuses primarily on the behaviour of resources, it is noted that discrete variability characteristics can be related to different system impacts. Persistence and predictability are relevant for system balancing, whereas statistical distribution is more relevant when exploring issues of asset utilisation and energy curtailment. Areas of further research are also identified, including the need to assess the value of predictability in relation to other characteristics.

Environmental oestrogens and breast cancer: long-term low-dose effects of mixtures of various chemical combinations

The incidence of breast cancer has risen worldwide to unprecedented levels in recent decades, making it now the major cancer of women in many parts of the world.1 Although diet, alcohol, radiation and inherited loss of BRCA1/2 genes have all been associated with increased incidence, the main identified risk factors are life exposure to hormones including physiological variations associated with puberty/pregnancy/menopause,1 personal choice of use of hormonal contraceptives2 and/or hormone replacement therapy.3–6 On this basis, exposure of the human breast to the many environmental pollutant chemicals capable of mimicking or interfering with oestrogen action7 should also be of concern.8 Hundreds of such environmental chemicals have now been measured in human breast tissue from a range of dietary and domestic exposure sources7 ,9 including persistent organochlorine pollutants (POPs),10 polybrominated diphenylethers and polybromobiphenyls,11 polychlorinated biphenyls,12 dioxins,13 alkyl phenols,14 bisphenol-A and chlorinated derivatives,15 as well as other less lipophilic compounds such as parabens (alkyl esters of p-hydroxybenzoic acid),16 but studies investigating any association between raised levels of such compounds and the development of breast cancer remain inconclusive.7–16 However, the functionality of these chemicals has continued to be assessed on the basis of individual chemicals rather than the environmental reality of long-term low-dose exposure to complex mixtures. This misses the potential for individuals to have high concentrations of different compounds but with a common mechanism of action. It also misses the complex interactions between chemicals and physiological hormones which together may act to alter the internal homeostasis of the oestrogenic environment of mammary tissue.

An investigation of thermal comfort adaptation behaviour in office buildings in the UK

Around 40% of total energy consumption in the UK is consumed by creating comfortable indoor environment for occupants. Occupants’ behaviour in terms of achieving thermal comfort could have a significant impact on a building’s energy consumption. Therefore, understanding the interactions of occupants with their buildings would be essential to provide a thermal comfort environment that is less reliance on energy-intensive heating, ventilation and air-conditioning systems, to meet energysaving and carbon emission targets. This paper presents the findings of a year-long field study conducted in non-air-conditioned office buildings in the UK. Occupants’ adaptive responses in terms of technological and personal dimensions are dynamic processes which could vary with both indoor and outdoor thermal conditions. The adaptive behaviours of occupants in the surveyed building show substantial seasonal and daily variations. Our study shows that non-physical factors such as habit could influence the adaptive responses of occupants. However, occupants sometimes displayed inappropriate adaptive behaviour, which could lead to a misuse of energy. This paper attempts to illustrate how occupants would adapt and interact with their built environment and consequently contribute to development of a guide for future design/refurbishment of buildings and to develop energy management systems for a comfortable built environment.

Southern annular mode dynamics in observations and models, Part I: The influence of climatological zonal wind biases in a comprehensive GCM

A common bias among global climate models (GCMs) is that they exhibit tropospheric southern annular mode (SAM) variability that is much too persistent in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) summertime. This is of concern for the ability to accurately predict future SH circulation changes, so it is important that it be understood and alleviated. In this two-part study, specifically targeted experiments with the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (CMAM) are used to improve understanding of the enhanced summertime SAM persistence. Given the ubiquity of this bias among comprehensive GCMs, it is likely that the results will be relevant for other climate models. Here, in Part I, the influence of climatological circulation biases on SAM variability is assessed, with a particular focus on two common biases that could enhance summertime SAM persistence: the too-late breakdown of the Antarctic stratospheric vortex and the equatorward bias in the SH tropospheric midlatitude jet. Four simulations are used to investigate the role of each of these biases in CMAM. Nudging and bias correcting procedures are used to systematically remove zonal-mean stratospheric variability and/or remove climatological zonal wind biases. The SAM time-scale bias is not alleviated by improving either the timing of the stratospheric vortex breakdown or the climatological jet structure. Even in the absence of stratospheric variability and with an improved climatological circulation, the model time scales are biased long. This points toward a bias in internal tropospheric dynamics that is not caused by the tropospheric jet structure bias. The underlying cause of this is examined in more detail in Part II of this study.

The vertical structure of ocean heat transport

One of the most important contributions the ocean makes to Earth's climate is through its poleward heat transport: about 1.5 PW or more than 30% of that accomplished by the ocean-atmosphere system (Trenberth and Caron, 2001). Recently, concern has arisen over whether global warming could affect this heat transport (Watson et al., 2001), for example, reducing high latitude convection and triggering a collapse of the deep overturning circulation (Rahmstorf, 1995). While the consequences of abrupt changes in oceanic circulation should be of concern, we argue that the attention devoted to deep circulations is disproportionate to their role in heat transport. For this purpose, we introduce a heat function which identifies the contribution to the heat transport by different components of the oceanic circulation. A new view of the ocean emerges in which a shallow surface intensified circulation dominates the poleward heat transport.

Care homes’ use of medicines study: prevalence, causes and potential harm of medication errors in care homes for older people

Introduction: Care home residents are at particular risk from medication errors, and our objective was to determine the prevalence and potential harm of prescribing, monitoring, dispensing and administration errors in UK care homes, and to identify their causes. Methods: A prospective study of a random sample of residents within a purposive sample of homes in three areas. Errors were identified by patient interview, note review, observation of practice and examination of dispensed items. Causes were understood by observation and from theoretically framed interviews with home staff, doctors and pharmacists. Potential harm from errors was assessed by expert judgement. Results: The 256 residents recruited in 55 homes were taking a mean of 8.0 medicines. One hundred and seventy-eight (69.5%) of residents had one or more errors. The mean number per resident was 1.9 errors. The mean potential harm from prescribing, monitoring, administration and dispensing errors was 2.6, 3.7, 2.1 and 2.0 (0 = no harm, 10 = death), respectively. Contributing factors from the 89 interviews included doctors who were not accessible, did not know the residents and lacked information in homes when prescribing; home staff’s high workload, lack of medicines training and drug round interruptions; lack of team work among home, practice and pharmacy; inefficient ordering systems; inaccurate medicine records and prevalence of verbal communication; and difficult to fill (and check) medication administration systems. Conclusions: That two thirds of residents were exposed to one or more medication errors is of concern. The will to improve exists, but there is a lack of overall responsibility. Action is required from all concerned.

Seasonal intercomparison of observational rainfall datasets over India during the southwest monsoon season

The Indian monsoon is an important component of Earth's climate system, accurate forecasting of its mean rainfall being essential for regional food and water security. Accurate measurement of the rainfall is essential for various water-related applications, the evaluation of numerical models and detection and attribution of trends, but a variety of different gridded rainfall datasets are available for these purposes. In this study, six gridded rainfall datasets are compared against the India Meteorological Department (IMD) gridded rainfall dataset, chosen as the most representative of the observed system due to its high gauge density. The datasets comprise those based solely on rain gauge observations and those merging rain gauge data with satellite-derived products. Various skill scores and subjective comparisons are carried out for the Indian region during the south-west monsoon season (June to September). Relative biases and skill metrics are documented at all-India and sub-regional scales. In the gauge-based (land-only) category, Asian Precipitation-Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation of water resources (APHRODITE) and Global Precipitation Climatology Center (GPCC) datasets perform better relative to the others in terms of a variety of skill metrics. In the merged category, the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) dataset is shown to perform better than the Climate Prediction Center Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) for the Indian monsoon in terms of various metrics, when compared with the IMD gridded data. Most of the datasets have difficulty in representing rainfall over orographic regions including the Western Ghats mountains, in north-east India and the Himalayan foothills. The wide range of skill scores seen among the datasets and even the change of sign of bias found in some years are causes of concern. This uncertainty between datasets is largest in north-east India. These results will help those studying the Indian monsoon region to select an appropriate dataset depending on their application and focus of research.

Interpreting communication of people with profound and severe learning difficulties

The present paper highlights some of the issues involved in interpreting the communication behaviours of people with profound and multiple learning difficulties (PMLDs). Both inference and intention can play an important role in the communication process, and this raises a number of difficulties and dangers where one of the communication partners is not in a position to correct misunderstandings. The present authors discuss the importance of validating communication and pose a number of key questions to ask those who are most significant in the life of a person with PMLDs. A case study is provided that illustrates a number of these issues.

Interactions between earthworms and arsenic in the soil environment: a review

Chemical pollution of the environment has become a major source of concern. In particular, many studies have investigated the impact of pollution on biota in the environment. Studies on metalliferous contaminated mine spoil wastes have shown that some soil organisms have the capability to become resistant to metal/metalloid toxicity. Earthworms are known to inhabit arsenic-rich metalliferous soils and, due to their intimate contact with the soil, in both the solid and aqueous phases, are likely to accumulate contaminants present in mine spoil. Earthworms that inhabit metalliferous contaminated soils must have developed mechanisms of resistance to the toxins found in these soils. The mechanisms of resistance are not fully understood; they may involve physiological adaptation (acclimation) or be genetic. This review discusses the relationships between earthworms and arsenic-rich mine spoil wastes, looking critically at resistance and possible mechanisms of resistance, in relation to soil edaphic factors and possible trophic transfer routes. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Living with ASD: how do children and their parents assess their difficulties with social interaction and understanding?

Social interaction and understanding in autistic spectrum disorder (ASD) are key areas of concern to practitioners and researchers alike. However, there is a relative lack of information about the skills and competencies of children and young people with ASD who access ordinary community facilities including mainstream education. In particular, contributions by parents and their children have been under-utilized. Using two structured questionnaires, 19 children with ASD reported difficulties with social skills including social engagement and temper management and also reported difficulties with social competence, affecting both friendships and peer relationships. Parents rated the children's social skill and competence as significantly worse than did the children themselves, but there was considerable agreement about the areas that were problematic. Using an informal measure to highlight their children's difficulties, parents raised issues relating to conversation skills, social emotional reciprocity and peer relationships. The implications for assessment and intervention are discussed.

Young people with intellectual disabilities attending mainstream and segregated schooling: perceived stigma, social comparison and future aspirations

Mainstream schooling is a key policy in the promotion of social inclusion of young people with learning disabilities. Yet there is limited evidence about the school experience of young people about to leave mainstream as compared with segregated education, and how it impacts on their relative view of self and future aspirations. Sixty young people with mild to moderate intellectual disabilities in their final year of secondary school participated in this study. Twenty-eight individuals came from mainstream schools and 32 attended segregated school. They completed a series of self-report measures on perceptions of stigma, social comparison to a more disabled and non-disabled peer and the likelihood involved in attaining their future goals. The majority of participants from both groups reported experiencing stigmatized treatment in the local area where they lived. The mainstream group reported significant additional stigma at school. In terms of social comparisons, both groups compared themselves positively with a more disabled peer and with a non-disabled peer. While the mainstream pupils had more ambitious work-related aspirations, both groups felt it equally likely that they would attain their future goals. Although the participants from segregated schools came from significantly more deprived areas and had lower scores on tests of cognitive functioning, neither of these factors appeared to have an impact on their experience of stigma, social comparisons or future aspirations. Irrespective of schooling environment, the young people appeared to be able to cope with the threats to their identities and retained a sense of optimism about their future. Nevertheless, negative treatment reported by the children was a serious source of concern and there is a need for schools to promote the emotional well-being of pupils with intellectual disabilities.

Patients' attitudes towards, and information needs in relation to, nurse prescribing in rheumatology

Aims and objectives: To assess the level of confidence that rheumatology patients would have in nurse prescribing, the effects on likely adherence and particular concerns that these patients have. In addition, given that information provision has been cited as a potential benefit of nurse prescribing, the present study assessed the extent to which these patients would want an explanation for the selected medicine, as well as which types of information should be included in such an explanation. Background: Nurse prescribing has been successfully implemented in the UK in several healthcare settings. Existing research has not addressed the effects on patients' confidence and likely adherence, nor have patients' information needs been established. However, we know that inadequate medicines information provision by health professionals is one of the largest causes of patient dissatisfaction. Methods: Fifty-four patients taking disease-modifying drugs for inflammatory joint disease attending a specialist rheumatology clinic self-completed a written questionnaire. Results: Patients indicated a relatively high level of confidence in nurse prescribing and stated that they would be very likely to take the selected medication. The level of concern was relatively low and the majority of concerns raised did not relate to the nurse's status. Strong support was expressed for the nurse providing an explanation for medicine choice. Conclusion: This research provides support for the prescription of medicines by nurses working in the area of rheumatology, the importance of nurses providing a full explanation about the selected medicines they prescribe for these patients and some indication as to which categories of information should be included. Relevance to clinical practice: Rheumatology patients who have not yet experienced nurse prescribing are, in general, positive about nurses adopting this role. It is important that nurses provide appropriate information about the prescribed medicines, in a form that can be understood.

Service charge management

Service Charge Management is an area of concern to property managers acting for both property occupiers and investors. This paper reviews the background to service charge management in the UK, and examines, by means of a survey, the current state of service charge practice in the surveying profession.

REDD+ and community-controlled forests in low-income countries: any hope for a linkage?

Deforestation and forest degradation are estimated to account for between 12% and 20% of annual greenhouse gas emissions and in the 1990s (largely in the developing world) released about 5.8 Gt per year, which was bigger than all forms of transport combined. The idea behind REDD + is that payments for sequestering carbon can tip the economic balance away from loss of forests and in the process yield climate benefits. Recent analysis has suggested that developing country carbon sequestration can effectively compete with other climate investments as part of a cost effective climate policy. This paper focuses on opportunities and complications associated with bringing community-controlled forests into REDD +. About 25% of developing country forests are community controlled and therefore it is difficult to envision a successful REDD + without coming to terms with community controlled forests. It is widely agreed that REDD + offers opportunities to bring value to developing country forests, but there are also concerns driven by worries related to insecure and poorly defined community forest tenure, informed by often long histories of government unwillingness to meaningfully devolve to communities. Further, communities are complicated systems and it is therefore also of concern that REDD + could destabilize existing well-functioning community forestry systems.

Dairy farmers’ attitudes and intentions towards improving dairy cow foot health

Dairy cow foot health is a subject of concern because it is considered to be the most important welfare problem in dairy farming and causes economic losses for the farmer. In order to improve dairy cow foot health it is important to take into account the attitude and intention of dairy farmers. In our study the objective was to gain insight into the attitude and intention of dairy farmers to take action to improve dairy cow foot health and determine drivers and barriers to take action, using the Theory of Planned Behavior. Five hundred Dutch dairy farmers were selected randomly and were invited by email to fill in an online questionnaire. The questionnaire included questions about respondents’ intentions, attitudes, subjective norms and perceived behavioral control and was extended with questions about personal normative beliefs. With information from such a framework, solution strategies for the improvement of dairy cow foot health can be proposed. The results showed that almost 70% of the dairy farmers had an intention to take action to improve dairy cow foot health. Most important drivers seem to be the achievement of better foot health with cost-effective measures. Possible barriers to taking action were labor efficiency and a long interval between taking action and seeing an improvement in dairy cow foot health. The feed advisor and foot trimmer seemed to have most influence on intentions to take action to improve dairy cow foot health. Most farmers seemed to be satisfied with the foot health status at their farm, which probably weakens the intention for foot health improvement, especially compared to other issues which farmers experience as more urgent. Subclinical foot disorders (where cows are not visibly lame) were not valued as important with respect to animal welfare. Furthermore, 25% of the respondents did not believe cows could suffer pain. Animal welfare, especially the provision of good care for the cows, was valued as important but was not related to intention to improve dairy cow foot health. The cost-effectiveness of measures seemed to be more important. Providing more information on the effects of taking intervention measures might stimulate farmers to take action to achieve improvement in dairy cow foot health.