Subseasonal extremes of precipitation and active-break cycles of the Indian summer monsoon in a climate-change scenario

Changes to the behaviour of subseasonal precipitation extremes and active-break cycles of the Indian summer monsoon are assessed in this study using pre-industrial and 2 × CO2 integrations of the Hadley Centre coupled model HadCM3, which is able to simulate the monsoon seasonal cycle reasonably. At 2 × CO2, mean summer rainfall increases slightly, especially over central and northern India. The mean intensity of daily precipitation during the monsoon is found to increase, consistent with fewer wet days, and there are increases to heavy rain events beyond changes in the mean alone. The chance of reaching particular thresholds of heavy rainfall is found to approximately double over northern India, increasing the likelihood of damaging floods on a seasonal basis. The local distribution of such projections is uncertain, however, given the large spread in mean monsoon rainfall change and associated extremes amongst even the most recent coupled climate models. The measured increase of the heaviest precipitation events over India is found to be broadly in line with the degree of atmospheric warming and associated increases in specific humidity, lending a degree of predictability to changes in rainfall extremes. Active-break cycles of the Indian summer monsoon, important particularly due to their effect on agricultural output, are shown to be reasonably represented in HadCM3, in particular with some degree of northward propagation. We note an intensification of both active and break events, particularly when measured against the annual cycle, although there is no suggestion of any change to the duration or likelihood of monsoon breaks. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society

Granulometric characterization and evaluation of annually banded mid-Holocene estuarine silts, Welsh Severn Estuary (UK): coastal change, sea level and climate

Holocene silts (salt marshes) and highest intertidal-supratidal peats are superbly exposed on a 15 kin coastal transect which reveals two laterally extensive units of annually banded silts (Beds 3, 7) associated with three transgressive-regressive silt-peat cycles (early sixth-early fourth millennium BC). Bed 3 in places is concordantly and gradationally related to peats above and below, but in others transgresses older strata. Bed 7 also grades up into peat, but everywhere overlies a discordance. The banding in Bed 3 at three main and two minor sites was resolved and characterized texturally at high-resolution (2.5/5 mm contiguous slices) using laser granulometry (LS230 with PIDS) and a comprehensive scheme of data-assessment. Most of Bed 3 formed very rapidly, at peak values of several tens of millimetres annually, in accordance with modelled effects of sea-level fluctuations on mature marshes (bed concordant and gradational) and on marshes growing up after coastal erosion and retreat (bed with discordant base). Using data from the modern Severn Estuary, the textural contrast within bands, and its variation between bands, points to a variable but overall milder mid-Holocene climate than today. The inter-annual variability affected marsh dynamics, as shown by the behaviour of the finely divided plant tissues present. Given local calibration, the methodology is applicable to other tidal systems with banded silts in Britain and mainland northwest Europe. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Floodplain environmental change during the Younger Dryas and Holocene in Northwest Europe: Insights from the lower Kennet Valley, south central England

Many lowland rivers across northwest Europe exhibit broadly similar behavioural responses to glacial-interglacial transitions and landscape development. Difficulties exist in assessing these, largely because the evidence from many rivers remains limited and fragmentary. Here we address this issue in the context of the river Kennet, a tributary of the Thames, since c. 13,000 cal BP. Some similarities with other rivers are present, suggesting that regional climatic shifts are important controls. The Kennet differs from the regional pattern in a number of ways. The rate of response to sudden climatic change, particularly at the start of the Holocene and also mid-Holocene forest clearance, appears very high. This may reflect abrupt shifts between two catchment scale hydrological states arising from contemporary climates, land use change and geology. Stadial hydrology is dominated by nival regimes, with limited winter infiltration and high spring and summer runoff. Under an interglacial climate, infiltration is more significant. The probable absence of permafrost in the catchment means that a lag between the two states due to its gradual decay is unlikely. Palaeoecology, supported by radiocarbon dates, suggests that, at the very start of the Holocene, a dramatic episode of fine sediment deposition across most of the valley floor occurred, lasting 500-1000 years. A phase of peat accumulation followed as mineral sediment supply declined. A further shift led to tufa deposition, initially in small pools, then across the whole floodplain area, with the river flowing through channels cut in tufa and experiencing repeated avulsion. Major floods, leaving large gravel bars that still form positive relief features on the floodplain, followed mid-Holocene floodplain stability. Prehistoric deforestation is likely to be the cause of this flooding, inducing a major environmental shift with significantly increased surface runoff. Since the Bronze Age, predominantly fine sediments were deposited along the valley with apparently stable channels and vertical floodplain accretion associated with soil erosion and less catastrophic flooding. The Kennet demonstrates that, while a general pattern of river behaviour over time, within a region, may be identifiable, individual rivers are likely to diverge from this. Consequently, it is essential to understand catchment controls, particularly the relative significance of surface and subsurface hydrology. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Survival, Pb-uptake and behaviour of three species of earthworm in Pb treated soils determined using an OECD-style toxicity test and a soil avoidance test

Mature (clitellate) Eisenia andrei Bouche (ultra epigeic), Lumbricus rubellus Hoffmeister (epigeic), and Aporrectodea caliginosa (Savigny) (endogeic) earthworms were placed in soils treated with Pb(NO3)(2) to have concentrations in the range 1000 to 10 000 mg Pb kg(-1). After 28 days LC50(-95%confidence limit) (+95%confidence limit) values were E. andrei 5824(-361)(+898) mg Pb kg(-1), L. rubellus 2867(-193)(+145) mg Pb kg(-1) and A. caliginosa 2747(-304)(+239) mg Pb kg(-1) and EC50s for weight change were E. andrei 2841(-68)(+150) Pb kg(-1), L. rubellus 1303(-201)(+204) mg Pb kg(-1) and A. caliginosa 1208(-206)(+212) Mg Pb kg(-1). At any given soil Pb concentration, Pb tissue concentrations after 28 days were the same for all three earthworm species. In a soil avoidance test there was no difference between the behaviour of the different species. The lower sensitivity to Pb exhibited by E. andrei is most likely due to physiological adaptations associated with the modes of life of the earthworms, and could have serious implications for the use of this earthworm as the species of choice in standard toxicological testing. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modelling monsoons: understanding and predicting current and future behaviour

The global monsoon system is so varied and complex that understanding and predicting its diverse behaviour remains a challenge that will occupy modellers for many years to come. Despite the difficult task ahead, an improved monsoon modelling capability has been realized through the inclusion of more detailed physics of the climate system and higher resolution in our numerical models. Perhaps the most crucial improvement to date has been the development of coupled ocean-atmosphere models. From subseasonal to interdecadal time scales, only through the inclusion of air-sea interaction can the proper phasing and teleconnections of convection be attained with respect to sea surface temperature variations. Even then, the response to slow variations in remote forcings (e.g., El Niño—Southern Oscillation) does not result in a robust solution, as there are a host of competing modes of variability that must be represented, including those that appear to be chaotic. Understanding the links between monsoons and land surface processes is not as mature as that explored regarding air-sea interactions. A land surface forcing signal appears to dominate the onset of wet season rainfall over the North American monsoon region, though the relative role of ocean versus land forcing remains a topic of investigation in all the monsoon systems. Also, improved forecasts have been made during periods in which additional sounding observations are available for data assimilation. Thus, there is untapped predictability that can only be attained through the development of a more comprehensive observing system for all monsoon regions. Additionally, improved parameterizations - for example, of convection, cloud, radiation, and boundary layer schemes as well as land surface processes - are essential to realize the full potential of monsoon predictability. A more comprehensive assessment is needed of the impact of black carbon aerosols, which may modulate that of other anthropogenic greenhouse gases. Dynamical considerations require ever increased horizontal resolution (probably to 0.5 degree or higher) in order to resolve many monsoon features including, but not limited to, the Mei-Yu/Baiu sudden onset and withdrawal, low-level jet orientation and variability, and orographic forced rainfall. Under anthropogenic climate change many competing factors complicate making robust projections of monsoon changes. Absent aerosol effects, increased land-sea temperature contrast suggests strengthened monsoon circulation due to climate change. However, increased aerosol emissions will reflect more solar radiation back to space, which may temper or even reduce the strength of monsoon circulations compared to the present day. Precipitation may behave independently from the circulation under warming conditions in which an increased atmospheric moisture loading, based purely on thermodynamic considerations, could result in increased monsoon rainfall under climate change. The challenge to improve model parameterizations and include more complex processes and feedbacks pushes computing resources to their limit, thus requiring continuous upgrades of computational infrastructure to ensure progress in understanding and predicting current and future behaviour of monsoons.

Understanding the dimensional change card sort: Perspectives from task success and failure

Four experiments consider some of the circumstances under which children follow two different rule pairs when sorting cards. Previous research has repeatedly found that 3-year-olds encounter substantial difficulties implementing the second of two conflicting rule sets, despite their knowledge of these rules. One interpretation of this phenomenon [Cognitive Complexity and Control (CCC) theory] is that 3-year-olds have problems establishing an appropriate hierarchical ordering for rules. The present data suggest an alternative account of children's card sorting behaviour, according to which the cognitive salience of test card features may be more important than inflexibility with respect to rule representation.

Training to address attitudes and behaviour of rural bank managers in Madhya Pradesh, India: A programme to facilitate financial inclusion

Given their physical presence in India, banks are arguably well-placed to improve financial inclusion in rural areas. However, uncertain repayment capacities and high transaction costs mean formal financial institutions are often reluctant to lend to the rural poor. Conversely, high transaction costs in dealing with banks are also incurred by clients, through, for example, lengthy, cumbersome and potentially ignominious procedures. Negative attitudes towards poor clients can be an important component of such transaction costs. An applied research project funded by the Enterprise Development Innovation Fund (EDIF-DFID) developed an innovative training programme designed to encourage more positive attitudes of bank staff towards poor clients, and towards their own role in rural poverty alleviation and development. This paper examines the development of the training programme, its implementation, and the results of its evaluation. It is shown that training can bring about attitudinal change, which in turn is reflected in behaviour and social impact.

Intentions of UK farmers toward biofuel crop production: Implications for policy targets and land use change

The United States and the European Union have set targets for biofuel production to decrease reliance on fossil fuels and to reduce fossil carbon emissions. Attainment of biofuel targets d6pends upon policy and infrastructure development but also on production of suitable raw materials. Production of relevant crops relies on the decisions that farmers make in their economic and political environment. We need to identify any farmer-related barriers to biofuel production and to determine whether novel policy and technology are required to meet targets. These aspects of the emerging biofuel industry are relevant across international barriers and have notyet been addressed quantitatively. We describe a case study from the UK of farmers' intentions toward producing two biofuel crops for which refining capacity either exists or is under construction. Given farmers' intentions, current land use, and conversion efficiency, we estimate potential biofuel production. These estimates indicate that EU targets are not achievable using domestically grown raw materials without policy intervention, use of alternative feedstocks, and either significant improvements in processing efficiency or largescale changes in land use.

The behaviour of organic solvents containing C5-BTBP and CyMe4-BTBP at low irradiation doses

Low doses of gamma radiation were given to four different solvents containing C5-BTBP and CyMe4-BTBP, each molecule dissolved both in cyclohexanone and hexanol. Four corresponding solvents were kept unirradiated and used as references for the extraction experiments. Multiple samples were taken from both the irradiated solutions and the reference solutions at certain time intervals. The samples were used in extraction experiments with the radionuclides Am-241 and Eu-152. The protection against radiolysis of the extracting molecules by the diluent used for dissolution without adding a scavenger molecule was checked. The interplay between the diluent and the side group of the extracting molecule for protection against radiolysis was also studied by keeping the same type of core molecule for binding to the metal ions and varying the diluent and side group. The results were unexpected. The presence of a cyclic molecule as both a side group or diluent seems to keep the extraction of europium almost unaffected by radiolysis, while americium behaves differently from solvent to solvent. The diluent alone does not protect the extracting molecule. In some of the studied systems there is a distinct change in the extraction behaviour of Am between the irradiated and reference solutions, an effect that is however only present at the beginning of the experimental series. At later times the difference in distribution ratios between the irradiated and reference solution is constant. This phenomenon is found only when the side group and diluent are structurally dissimilar.

Ubiquitous monitoring and behavioural change: a semiotic perspective

We are soon approaching the pervasive-era ofcomputing, where computers are embedded intoobjects and the environment in order to provide newservices to users. Significant levels of data arerequired in order for these services to function asintended, and it is this collection of data which werefer to as ubiquitous monitoring. Existing monitoringtechniques have often been known to cause undesirableeffects, and it is anticipated that ubiquitousmonitoring, with its increased coverage, will lead toincreases in their occurrence and impact. To date, theeffects of ubiquitous monitoring on human behaviourhave not been sufficiently investigated, furtherincreasing the risk of undesirable effects. We propose apreliminary model consisting of a series of factorsbelieved to influence human behavior and augmentedby the Theory of Planned Behaviour. This model mayallow us to understand, predict, and therefore preventany undesirable effects caused by ubiquitousmonitoring.

Training to address attitudes and behaviour of rural bank managers in Madhya Pradesh, India: a programme to facilitate financial inclusion

Given their physical presence in India, banks are arguably well-placed to improve financial inclusion in rural areas. However, uncertain repayment capacities and high transaction costs mean formal financial institutions are often reluctant to lend to the rural poor. Conversely, high transaction costs in dealing with banks are also incurred by clients, through, for example, lengthy, cumbersome and potentially ignominious procedures. Negative attitudes towards poor clients can be an important component of such transaction costs. An applied research project funded by the Enterprise Development Innovation Fund (EDIF-DFID) developed an innovative training programme designed to encourage more positive attitudes of bank staff towards poor clients, and towards their own role in rural poverty alleviation and development. This paper examines the development of the training programme, its implementation, and the results of its evaluation. It is shown that training can bring about attitudinal change, which in turn is reflected in behaviour and social impact. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Enhancing change detection in low-quality surveillance footage using markov random fields

Urban surveillance footage can be of poor quality, partly due to the low quality of the camera and partly due to harsh lighting and heavily reflective scenes. For some computer surveillance tasks very simple change detection is adequate, but sometimes a more detailed change detection mask is desirable, eg, for accurately tracking identity when faced with multiple interacting individuals and in pose-based behaviour recognition. We present a novel technique for enhancing a low-quality change detection into a better segmentation using an image combing estimator in an MRF based model.

Dietary fat modifications and blood pressure in subjects with the metabolic syndrome in the LIPGENE dietary intervention study

Hypertension is a key feature of the metabolic syndrome. Lifestyle and dietary changes may affect blood pressure (BP), but the knowledge of the effects of dietary fat modification in subjects with the metabolic syndrome is limited. The objective of the present study was to investigate the effect of an isoenergetic change in the quantity and quality of dietary fat on BP in subjects with the metabolic syndrome. In a 12-week European multi-centre, parallel, randomised controlled dietary intervention trial (LIPGENE), 486 subjects were assigned to one of the four diets distinct in fat quantity and quality: two high-fat diets rich in saturated fat or monounsaturated fat and two low-fat, high-complex carbohydrate diets with or without 1·2 g/d of very long-chain n-3 PUFA supplementation. There were no overall differences in systolic BP (SBP), diastolic BP or pulse pressure (PP) between the dietary groups after the intervention. The high-fat diet rich in saturated fat had minor unfavourable effects on SBP and PP in males.

Thermodynamics of climate change: generalized sensitivities

Using a recent theoretical approach, we study how global warming impacts the thermodynamics of the climate system by performing experiments with a simplified yet Earth-like climate model. The intensity of the Lorenz energy cycle, the Carnot efficiency, the material entropy production, and the degree of irreversibility of the system change monotonically with the CO2 concentration. Moreover, these quantities feature an approximately linear behaviour with respect to the logarithm of the CO2 concentration in a relatively wide range. These generalized sensitivities suggest that the climate becomes less efficient, more irreversible, and features higher entropy production as it becomes warmer, with changes in the latent heat fluxes playing a predominant role. These results may be of help for explaining recent findings obtained with state of the art climate models regarding how increases in CO2 concentration impact the vertical stratification of the tropical and extratropical atmosphere and the position of the storm tracks.

Predicting microbial pollution concentrations in UK rivers in response to land use change

The Water Framework Directive has caused a paradigm shift towards the integrated management of recreational water quality through the development of drainage basin-wide programmes of measures. This has increased the need for a cost-effective diagnostic tool capable of accurately predicting riverine faecal indicator organism (FIO) concentrations. This paper outlines the application of models developed to fulfil this need, which represent the first transferrable generic FIO models to be developed for the UK to incorporate direct measures of key FIO sources (namely human and livestock population data) as predictor variables. We apply a recently developed transfer methodology, which enables the quantification of geometric mean presumptive faecal coliforms and presumptive intestinal enterococci concentrations for base- and high-flow during the summer bathing season in unmonitored UK watercourses, to predict FIO concentrations in the Humber river basin district. Because the FIO models incorporate explanatory variables which allow the effects of policy measures which influence livestock stocking rates to be assessed, we carry out empirical analysis of the differential effects of seven land use management and policy instruments (fiscal constraint, production constraint, cost intervention, area intervention, demand-side constraint, input constraint, and micro-level land use management) all of which can be used to reduce riverine FIO concentrations. This research provides insights into FIO source apportionment, explores a selection of pollution remediation strategies and the spatial differentiation of land use policies which could be implemented to deliver river quality improvements. All of the policy tools we model reduce FIO concentrations in rivers but our research suggests that the installation of streamside fencing in intensive milk producing areas may be the single most effective land management strategy to reduce riverine microbial pollution.