The physical properties of the atmosphere in the new Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model (HadGEM1). Part II: Aspects of variability and regional climate

The performance of the atmospheric component of the new Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model (HadGEM1) is assessed in terms of its ability to represent a selection of key aspects of variability in the Tropics and extratropics. These include midlatitude storm tracks and blocking activity, synoptic variability over Europe, and the North Atlantic Oscillation together with tropical convection, the Madden-Julian oscillation, and the Asian summer monsoon. Comparisons with the previous model, the Third Hadley Centre Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere GCM (HadCM3), demonstrate that there has been a considerable increase in the transient eddy kinetic energy (EKE), bringing HadGEM1 into closer agreement with current reanalyses. This increase in EKE results from the increased horizontal resolution and, in combination with the improved physical parameterizations, leads to improvements in the representation of Northern Hemisphere storm tracks and blocking. The simulation of synoptic weather regimes over Europe is also greatly improved compared to HadCM3, again due to both increased resolution and other model developments. The variability of convection in the equatorial region is generally stronger and closer to observations than in HadCM3. There is, however, still limited convective variance coincident with several of the observed equatorial wave modes. Simulation of the Madden-Julian oscillation is improved in HadGEM1: both the activity and interannual variability are increased and the eastward propagation, although slower than observed, is much better simulated. While some aspects of the climatology of the Asian summer monsoon are improved in HadGEM1, the upper-level winds are too weak and the simulation of precipitation deteriorates. The dominant modes of monsoon interannual variability are similar in the two models, although in HadCM3 this is linked to SST forcing, while in HadGEM1 internal variability dominates. Overall, analysis of the phenomena considered here indicates that HadGEM1 performs well and, in many important respects, improves upon HadCM3. Together with the improved representation of the mean climate, this improvement in the simulation of atmospheric variability suggests that HadGEM1 provides a sound basis for future studies of climate and climate change.

Evidence of trends in daily climate extremes over southern and west Africa

[ 1] There has been a paucity of information on trends in daily climate and climate extremes, especially from developing countries. We report the results of the analysis of daily temperature ( maximum and minimum) and precipitation data from 14 south and west African countries over the period 1961 - 2000. Data were subject to quality control and processing into indices of climate extremes for release to the global community. Temperature extremes show patterns consistent with warming over most of the regions analyzed, with a large proportion of stations showing statistically significant trends for all temperature indices. Over 1961 to 2000, the regionally averaged occurrence of extreme cold ( fifth percentile) days and nights has decreased by - 3.7 and - 6.0 days/decade, respectively. Over the same period, the occurrence of extreme hot (95th percentile) days and nights has increased by 8.2 and 8.6 days/decade, respectively. The average duration of warm ( cold) has increased ( decreased) by 2.4 (0.5) days/decade and warm spells. Overall, it appears that the hot tails of the distributions of daily maximum temperature have changed more than the cold tails; for minimum temperatures, hot tails show greater changes in the NW of the region, while cold tails have changed more in the SE and east. The diurnal temperature range (DTR) does not exhibit a consistent trend across the region, with many neighboring stations showing opposite trends. However, the DTR shows consistent increases in a zone across Namibia, Botswana, Zambia, and Mozambique, coinciding with more rapid increases in maximum temperature than minimum temperature extremes. Most precipitation indices do not exhibit consistent or statistically significant trends across the region. Regionally averaged total precipitation has decreased but is not statistically significant. At the same time, there has been a statistically significant increase in regionally averaged daily rainfall intensity and dry spell duration. While the majority of stations also show increasing trends for these two indices, only a few of these are statistically significant. There are increasing trends in regionally averaged rainfall on extreme precipitation days and in maximum annual 5-day and 1-day rainfall, but only trends for the latter are statistically significant.

Performance of the OPA/ARPEGE-T21 global ocean-atmosphere coupled model

The climatology of the OPA/ARPEGE-T21 coupled general circulation model (GCM) is presented. The atmosphere GCM has a T21 spectral truncation and the ocean GCM has a 2°×1.5° average resolution. A 50-year climatic simulation is performed using the OASIS coupler, without flux correction techniques. The mean state and seasonal cycle for the last 10 years of the experiment are described and compared to the corresponding uncoupled experiments and to climatology when available. The model reasonably simulates most of the basic features of the observed climate. Energy budgets and transports in the coupled system, of importance for climate studies, are assessed and prove to be within available estimates. After an adjustment phase of a few years, the model stabilizes around a mean state where the tropics are warm and resemble a permanent ENSO, the Southern Ocean warms and almost no sea-ice is left in the Southern Hemisphere. The atmospheric circulation becomes more zonal and symmetric with respect to the equator. Once those systematic errors are established, the model shows little secular drift, the small remaining trends being mainly associated to horizontal physics in the ocean GCM. The stability of the model is shown to be related to qualities already present in the uncoupled GCMs used, namely a balanced radiation budget at the top-of-the-atmosphere and a tight ocean thermocline.

A baseline appraisal of water-dependant ecosystem services, the roles they play within desakota livelihood systems and their potential sensitivity to climate change

This report forms part of a larger research programme on 'Reinterpreting the Urban-Rural Continuum', which conceptualises and investigates current knowledge and research gaps concerning 'the role that ecosystems services play in the livelihoods of the poor in regions undergoing rapid change'. The report aims to conduct a baseline appraisal of water-dependant ecosystem services, the roles they play within desakota livelihood systems and their potential sensitivity to climate change. The appraisal is conducted at three spatial scales: global, regional (four consortia areas), and meso scale (case studies within the four regions). At all three scales of analysis water resources form the interweaving theme because water provides a vital provisioning service for people, supports all other ecosystem processes and because water resources are forecast to be severely affected under climate change scenarios. This report, combined with an Endnote library of over 1100 scientific papers, provides an annotated bibliography of water-dependant ecosystem services, the roles they play within desakota livelihood systems and their potential sensitivity to climate change. After an introductory, section, Section 2 of the report defines water-related ecosystem services and how these are affected by human activities. Current knowledge and research gaps are then explored in relation to global scale climate and related hydrological changes (e.g. floods, droughts, flow regimes) (section 3). The report then discusses the impacts of climate changes on the ESPA regions, emphasising potential responses of biomes to the combined effects of climate change and human activities (particularly land use and management), and how these effects coupled with water store and flow regime manipulation by humans may affect the functioning of catchments and their ecosystem services (section 4). Finally, at the meso-scale, case studies are presented from within the ESPA regions to illustrate the close coupling of human activities and catchment performance in the context of environmental change (section 5). At the end of each section, research needs are identified and justified. These research needs are then amalgamated in section 6.

Multi-model assessment of stratospheric ozone return dates and ozone recovery in CCMVal-2 models

Projections of stratospheric ozone from a suite of chemistry-climate models (CCMs) have been analyzed. In addition to a reference simulation where anthropogenic halogenated ozone depleting substances (ODSs) and greenhouse gases (GHGs) vary with time, sensitivity simulations with either ODS or GHG concentrations fixed at 1960 levels were performed to disaggregate the drivers of projected ozone changes. These simulations were also used to assess the two distinct milestones of ozone returning to historical values (ozone return dates) and ozone no longer being influenced by ODSs (full ozone recovery). The date of ozone returning to historical values does not indicate complete recovery from ODSs in most cases, because GHG-induced changes accelerate or decelerate ozone changes in many regions. In the upper stratosphere where CO2-induced stratospheric cooling increases ozone, full ozone recovery is projected to not likely have occurred by 2100 even though ozone returns to its 1980 or even 1960 levels well before (~2025 and 2040, respectively). In contrast, in the tropical lower stratosphere ozone decreases continuously from 1960 to 2100 due to projected increases in tropical upwelling, while by around 2040 it is already very likely that full recovery from the effects of ODSs has occurred, although ODS concentrations are still elevated by this date. In the midlatitude lower stratosphere the evolution differs from that in the tropics, and rather than a steady decrease in ozone, first a decrease in ozone is simulated from 1960 to 2000, which is then followed by a steady increase through the 21st century. Ozone in the midlatitude lower stratosphere returns to 1980 levels by ~2045 in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and by ~2055 in the Southern Hemisphere (SH), and full ozone recovery is likely reached by 2100 in both hemispheres. Overall, in all regions except the tropical lower stratosphere, full ozone recovery from ODSs occurs significantly later than the return of total column ozone to its 1980 level. The latest return of total column ozone is projected to occur over Antarctica (~2045–2060) whereas it is not likely that full ozone recovery is reached by the end of the 21st century in this region. Arctic total column ozone is projected to return to 1980 levels well before polar stratospheric halogen loading does so (~2025–2030 for total column ozone, cf. 2050–2070 for Cly+60×Bry) and it is likely that full recovery of total column ozone from the effects of ODSs has occurred by ~2035. In contrast to the Antarctic, by 2100 Arctic total column ozone is projected to be above 1960 levels, but not in the fixed GHG simulation, indicating that climate change plays a significant role.

Integrating woodland with pig production in the United Kingdom: an investigation of potential performance and interactions

Although silvopastoral systems involving pigs were once widespread in Britain, the practice has largely died out. However, recent changes in pig production techniques, consumer demands and the economic climate within which farmers operate, have led to renewed interest in both traditional and novel tree-pig systems. This paper describes a financial spreadsheet model (MAST) that was developed to: provide a means of determining financial performance of integrating finishing pigs with natural woodland; identify the likely importance of different as yet largely unresearched animal-tree interactions; and, determine which interactions warrant attention in research and management. Preliminary analysis suggests that the financial performance of this agroforestry enterprise could be superior to that of a pasture-based enterprise. The most important factors in determining incremental performance are identified as sales premia for ‘forest-reared’ pork, changes to feed conversion ratios arising from the provision of a heterogeneous microclimate, and the availability of cheaper land rents.

Integrating natural woodland with pig production in the United Kingdom: an investigation of potential performance and interactions

Although silvopastoral systems involving pigs were once widespread in Britain, the practice has largely died out. However, recent changes in pig production techniques, consumer demands and the economic climate within which farmers operate, have led to renewed interest in both traditional and novel tree-pig systems. This paper describes a financial spreadsheet model ( MAST) that was developed to: provide a means of determining financial performance of integrating finishing pigs with natural woodland; identify the likely importance of different as yet largely unresearched animal-tree interactions; and, determine which interactions warrant attention in research and management. Preliminary analysis suggests that the financial performance of this agroforestry enterprise could be superior to that of a pasture-based enterprise. The most important factors in determining incremental performance are identified as sales premia for 'forest-reared' pork, changes to feed conversion ratios arising from the provision of a heterogeneous microclimate, and the availability of cheaper land rents.

Verification of design calculations of a wind catcher/tower natural ventilation system with performance testing in real building

A wind catcher/tower natural ventilation system was installed in a seminar room in the building of the School of Construction Management and Engineering, the University of Reading in the UK . Performance was analysed by means of ventilation tracer gas measurements, indoor climate measurements (temperature, humidity, CO2) and occupant surveys. In addition, the potential of simple design tools was evaluated by comparing observed ventilation results with those predicted by an explicit ventilation model and the AIDA implicit ventilation model. To support this analysis, external climate parameters (wind speed and direction, solar radiation, external temperature and humidity) were also monitored. The results showed the chosen ventilation design provided a substantially greater ventilation rate than an equivalent area of openable window. Also air quality parameters stayed within accepted norms while occupants expressed general satisfaction with the system and with comfort conditions. Night cooling was maximised by using the system in combination with openable windows. Comparisons of calculations with ventilation rate measurements showed that while AIDA gave reasonably correlated results with the monitored performance results, the widely used industry explicit model was found to over estimate the monitored ventilation rate.

Performance evaluation of wall mounted convector for pre-heating naturally ventilated spaces

This paper presents the results of performance monitoring under real winter weather conditions, controlled laboratory testing and computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis of a wall mounted ventilation air inlet heat convector. For real winter weather monitoring, the wall-mounted convector was installed in a laboratory room of the Engineering Building of the School of Construction Management and Engineering. Air and hot water temperatures and air speeds were measured at the entrance to the convector and in the room. The hot water temperature was controlled at 40, 60 and 80 °C. The monitoring results were later used as boundary conditions for a CFD simulation to investigate the air movement in the room. Controlled laboratory testing was conducted in laboratories at the University of Reading, UK and at Wetterstad Consultancy, Sweden. The results of the performance investigation showed that the system contributed greatly to the room heating, particularly at a water temperature of 80 °C. Also adequate fresh air was supplied to the room. Such a system is able to provide an energy efficient method of eliminating problems associated with cold winter draughts.

Test performance indicators from a single soccer specific fitness test differentiate between highly trained and recreationally active soccer players

Aim. The aim of this study was to investigate whether a single soccer specific fitness test (SSFT) could differentiate between highly trained and recreationally active soccer players in selected test performance indicators. Methods. Subjects: 13 Academy Scholars (AS) from a professional soccer club and 10 Recreational Players (RP) agreed to participate in this study. Test 1-(V)over dotO(2) max was estimated from a progressive shuttle run test to exhaustion. Test 2-The SSFT was controlled by an automated procedure and alternated between walking, sprinting, jogging and cruise running speeds. Three activity blocks (1A, 2A and 3A) were separated by 3 min rest periods in which blood lactate samples were drawn. The 3 blocks of activity (Part A) were followed by 10 min of exercise at speeds alternating between jogging and cruise running (Part B). Results. Estimated (V)over dotO(2) max did not significantly differ between groups, although a trend for a higher aerobic capacity was evident in AS (p<0.09). Exercising heart rates did not differ between AS and RP, however, recovery heart rates taken from the 3 min rest periods were significantly lower in AS compared with RP following blocks 1A (124.65 b(.)min(-1) +/-7.73 and 133.98 b(.)min(-1) +/-6.63), (p<0.05) and 3A (129.91 b.min(-1) +/-10.21 and 138.85 b.min(-1) +/-8.70), (p<0.01). Blood lactate concentrations were significantly elevated in AS in comparison to RP following blocks 2A (6.91 mmol(.)l(-1) +/-2.67 and 4.74 mmol(.)l(-1) +/-1.28) and 3A (7.18 mmol(.)l(-1) +/-2.97 and 4.88 mmol(.)l(-1) +/-1.50), (p<0.05). AS sustained significantly faster average sprint times in block 3A compared with RP (3.18 sec +/-0.12 and 3.31 sec +/-0.12), (p<0.05). Conclusion. The results of this study show that highly trained soccer players are able to sustain, and more quickly recover from, high intensity intermittent exercise.

Recovery of lactoferrin and lactoperoxidase from sweet whey using colloidal gas aphrons (CGAs) generated from an anionic surfactant, AOT

The recovery of lactoferrin and lactoperoxidase from sweet whey was studied using colloidal gas aphrons (CGAs), which are surfactant-stabilized microbubbles (10-100 mum). CGAs are generated by intense stirring (8000 rpm for 10 min) of the anionic surfactant AOT (sodium bis-2-ethylhexyl sulfosuccinate). A volume of CGAs (10-30 mL) is mixed with a given volume of whey (1 - 10 mL), and the mixture is allowed to separate into two phases: the aphron (top) phase and the liquid (bottom) phase. Each of the phases is analyzed by SDS-PAGE and surfactant colorimetric assay. A statistical experimental design has been developed to assess the effect of different process parameters including pH, ionic strength, the concentration of surfactant in the CGAs generating solution, the volume of CGAs and the volume of whey on separation efficiency. As expected pH, ionic strength and the volume of whey (i.e. the amount of total protein in the starting material) are the main factors influencing the partitioning of the Lf(.)Lp fraction into the aphron phase. Moreover, it has been demonstrated that best separation performance was achieved at pH = 4 and ionic strength = 0.1 mol/L i.e., with conditions favoring electrostatic interactions between target proteins and CGAs (recovery was 90% and the concentration of lactoferrin and lactoperoxidase in the aphron phase was 25 times higher than that in the liquid phase), whereas conditions favoring hydrophobic interactions (pH close to pI and high ionic strength) led to lower performance. However, under these conditions, as confirmed by zeta potential measurements, the adsorption of both target proteins and contaminant proteins is favored. Thus, low selectivity is achieved at all of the studied conditions. These results confirm the initial hypothesis that CGAs act as ion exchangers and that the selectivity of the process can be manipulated by changing main operating parameters such as type of surfactant, pH and ionic strength.

Changing patterns of cognitive-motor interference (CMI) over time during recovery from stroke

Objective: To explore the extent and nature of change in cognitive-motor interference (CMI) among rehabilitating stroke patients who showed dual-task gait decrement at initial assessment. Design: Experimental, with in-subjects, repeated measures design. Setting: Rehabilitation centre for adults with acquired, nonprogressive brain injury. Subjects: Ten patients with unilateral stroke, available for reassessment 1-9 months following their participation in a study of CMI after brain injury. Measures: Median stride duration; mean word generation. Methods: Two x one-minute walking trials, two x one-minute word generation trials, two x one-minute trials of simultaneous walking and word generation; 10-metre walking time; Barthel ADL Scale score. Results: Seven out of ten patients showed reduction over time in dual-task gait decrement. Three out of ten showed reduction in cognitive decrement. Only one showed concomitant reduction in gait and word generation decrement. Conclusion: Extent of CMI during relearning to walk after a stroke reduced over time in the majority of patients. Effects were more evident in improved stride duration than improved cognitive performance. Measures of multiple task performance should be included in assessment for functional recovery.

Impacts of pollution and climate change on ombrotrophic Sphagnum species in the UK: analysis of uncertainties in two empirical niche models

A significant challenge in the prediction of climate change impacts on ecosystems and biodiversity is quantifying the sources of uncertainty that emerge within and between different models. Statistical species niche models have grown in popularity, yet no single best technique has been identified reflecting differing performance in different situations. Our aim was to quantify uncertainties associated with the application of 2 complimentary modelling techniques. Generalised linear mixed models (GLMM) and generalised additive mixed models (GAMM) were used to model the realised niche of ombrotrophic Sphagnum species in British peatlands. These models were then used to predict changes in Sphagnum cover between 2020 and 2050 based on projections of climate change and atmospheric deposition of nitrogen and sulphur. Over 90% of the variation in the GLMM predictions was due to niche model parameter uncertainty, dropping to 14% for the GAMM. After having covaried out other factors, average variation in predicted values of Sphagnum cover across UK peatlands was the next largest source of variation (8% for the GLMM and 86% for the GAMM). The better performance of the GAMM needs to be weighed against its tendency to overfit the training data. While our niche models are only a first approximation, we used them to undertake a preliminary evaluation of the relative importance of climate change and nitrogen and sulphur deposition and the geographic locations of the largest expected changes in Sphagnum cover. Predicted changes in cover were all small (generally <1% in an average 4 m2 unit area) but also highly uncertain. Peatlands expected to be most affected by climate change in combination with atmospheric pollution were Dartmoor, Brecon Beacons and the western Lake District.