39 resultados para annual cycle
Resumo:
We compare the variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) as simulated by the coupled climate models of the RAPID project, which cover a wide range of resolution and complexity, and observed by the RAPID/MOCHA array at about 26N. We analyse variability on a range of timescales, from five-daily to interannual. In models of all resolutions there is substantial variability on timescales of a few days; in most AOGCMs the amplitude of the variability is of somewhat larger magnitude than that observed by the RAPID array, while the time-mean is within about 10% of the observational estimate. The amplitude of the simulated annual cycle is similar to observations, but the shape of the annual cycle shows a spread among the models. A dynamical decomposition shows that in the models, as in observations, the AMOC is predominantly geostrophic (driven by pressure and sea-level gradients), with both geostrophic and Ekman contributions to variability, the latter being exaggerated and the former underrepresented in models. Other ageostrophic terms, neglected in the observational estimate, are small but not negligible. The time-mean of the western boundary current near the latitude of the RAPID/MOCHA array has a much wider model spread than the AMOC does, indicating large differences among models in the simulation of the wind-driven gyre circulation, and its variability is unrealistically small in the models. In many RAPID models and in models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3), interannual variability of the maximum of the AMOC wherever it lies, which is a commonly used model index, is similar to interannual variability in the AMOC at 26N. Annual volume and heat transport timeseries at the same latitude are well-correlated within 15--45N, indicating the climatic importance of the AMOC. In the RAPID and CMIP3 models, we show that the AMOC is correlated over considerable distances in latitude, but not the whole extent of the north Atlantic; consequently interannual variability of the AMOC at 50N, where it is particularly relevant to European climate, is not well-correlated with that of the AMOC at 26N, where it is monitored by the RAPID/MOCHA array.
Resumo:
This study examines the effect of seasonally varying chlorophyll on the climate of the Arabian Sea and South Asian monsoon. The effect of such seasonality on the radiative properties of the upper ocean is often a missing process in coupled general circulation models and its large amplitude in the region makes it a pertinent choice for study to determine any impact on systematic biases in the mean and seasonality of the Arabian Sea. In this study we examine the effects of incorporating a seasonal cycle in chlorophyll due to phytoplankton blooms in the UK Met Office coupled atmosphere-ocean GCM HadCM3. This is achieved by performing experiments in which the optical properties of water in the Arabian Sea - a key signal of the semi-annual cycle of phytoplankton blooms in the region - are calculated from a chlorophyll climatology derived from Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-View Sensor (SeaWiFS) data. The SeaWiFS chlorophyll is prescribed in annual mean and seasonally-varying experiments. In response to the chlorophyll bloom in late spring, biases in mixed layer depth are reduced by up to 50% and the surface is warmed, leading to increases in monsoon rainfall during the onset period. However when the monsoons are fully established in boreal winter and summer and there are strong surface winds and a deep mixed layer, biases in the mixed layer depth are reduced but the surface undergoes cooling. The seasonality of the response of SST to chlorophyll is found to depend on the relative depth of the mixed layer to that of the anomalous penetration depth of solar fluxes. Thus the inclusion of the effects of chlorophyll on radiative properties of the upper ocean acts to reduce biases in mixed layer depth and increase seasonality in SST.
Resumo:
We present a descriptive overview of the meteorology in the south eastern subtropical Pacific (SEP) during the VOCALS-REx intensive observations campaign which was carried out between October and November 2008. Mainly based on data from operational analyses, forecasts, reanalysis, and satellite observations, we focus on spatio-temporal scales from synoptic to planetary. A climatological context is given within which the specific conditions observed during the campaign are placed, with particular reference to the relationships between the large-scale and the regional circulations. The mean circulations associated with the diurnal breeze systems are also discussed. We then provide a summary of the day-to-day synoptic-scale circulation, air-parcel trajectories, and cloud cover in the SEP during VOCALS-REx. Three meteorologically distinct periods of time are identified and the large-scale causes for their different character are discussed. The first period was characterised by significant variability associated with synoptic-scale systems interesting the SEP; while the two subsequent phases were affected by planetary-scale disturbances with a slower evolution. The changes between initial and later periods can be partly explained from the regular march of the annual cycle, but contributions from subseasonal variability and its teleconnections were important. Across the whole of the two months under consideration we find a significant correlation between the depth of the inversion-capped marine boundary layer (MBL) and the amount of low cloud in the area of study. We discuss this correlation and argue that at least as a crude approximation a typical scaling may be applied relating MBL and cloud properties with the large-scale parameters of SSTs and tropospheric temperatures. These results are consistent with previously found empirical relationships involving lower-tropospheric stability.
Resumo:
An evaluation is undertaken of the statistics of daily precipitation as simulated by five regional climate models using comprehensive observations in the region of the European Alps. Four limited area models and one variable-resolution global model are considered, all with a grid spacing of 50 km. The 15-year integrations were forced from reanalyses and observed sea surface temperature and sea ice (global model from sea surface only). The observational reference is based on 6400 rain gauge records (10–50 stations per grid box). Evaluation statistics encompass mean precipitation, wet-day frequency, precipitation intensity, and quantiles of the frequency distribution. For mean precipitation, the models reproduce the characteristics of the annual cycle and the spatial distribution. The domain mean bias varies between −23% and +3% in winter and between −27% and −5% in summer. Larger errors are found for other statistics. In summer, all models underestimate precipitation intensity (by 16–42%) and there is a too low frequency of heavy events. This bias reflects too dry summer mean conditions in three of the models, while it is partly compensated by too many low-intensity events in the other two models. Similar intermodel differences are found for other European subregions. Interestingly, the model errors are very similar between the two models with the same dynamical core (but different parameterizations) and they differ considerably between the two models with similar parameterizations (but different dynamics). Despite considerable biases, the models reproduce prominent mesoscale features of heavy precipitation, which is a promising result for their use in climate change downscaling over complex topography.
The Asian summer monsoon: an intercomparison of CMIP5 vs. CMIP3 simulations of the late 20th century
Resumo:
The boreal summer Asian monsoon has been evaluated in 25 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-5 (CMIP5) and 22 CMIP3 GCM simulations of the late 20th Century. Diagnostics and skill metrics have been calculated to assess the time-mean, climatological annual cycle, interannual variability, and intraseasonal variability. Progress has been made in modeling these aspects of the monsoon, though there is no single model that best represents all of these aspects of the monsoon. The CMIP5 multi-model mean (MMM) is more skillful than the CMIP3 MMM for all diagnostics in terms of the skill of simulating pattern correlations with respect to observations. Additionally, for rainfall/convection the MMM outperforms the individual models for the time mean, the interannual variability of the East Asian monsoon, and intraseasonal variability. The pattern correlation of the time (pentad) of monsoon peak and withdrawal is better simulated than that of monsoon onset. The onset of the monsoon over India is typically too late in the models. The extension of the monsoon over eastern China, Korea, and Japan is underestimated, while it is overestimated over the subtropical western/central Pacific Ocean. The anti-correlation between anomalies of all-India rainfall and Niño-3.4 sea surface temperature is overly strong in CMIP3 and typically too weak in CMIP5. For both the ENSO-monsoon teleconnection and the East Asian zonal wind-rainfall teleconnection, the MMM interannual rainfall anomalies are weak compared to observations. Though simulation of intraseasonal variability remains problematic, several models show improved skill at representing the northward propagation of convection and the development of the tilted band of convection that extends from India to the equatorial west Pacific. The MMM also well represents the space-time evolution of intraseasonal outgoing longwave radiation anomalies. Caution is necessary when using GPCP and CMAP rainfall to validate (1) the time-mean rainfall, as there are systematic differences over ocean and land between these two data sets, and (2) the timing of monsoon withdrawal over India, where the smooth southward progression seen in India Meteorological Department data is better realized in CMAP data compared to GPCP data.
Resumo:
This study considers the strength of the Northern Hemisphere Holton-Tan effect (HTE) in terms of the phase alignment of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) with respect to the annual cycle. Using the ERA-40 Reanalysis, it is found that the early winter (Nov–Dec) and late winter (Feb–Mar) relation between QBO phase and the strength of the stratospheric polar vortex is optimized for subsets of the 44-year record that are chosen on the basis of the seasonality of QBO phase transitions at the 30 hPa level. The timing of phase transitions serves as a proxy for changes in the vertical structure of the QBO over the whole depth of the tropical stratosphere. The statistical significance of the Nov–Dec (Feb–Mar) HTE is greatest when 30 hPa QBO phase transitions occur 9–14 (4–9) months prior to the January of the NH winter in question. This suggests that there exists for both early and late winter a vertical structure of tropical stratospheric winds that is most effective at influencing the interannual variability of the polar vortex, and that an early (late) winter HTE is associated with an early (late) progression of QBO phase towards that structure. It is also shown that the seasonality of QBO phase transitions at 30 hPa varies on a decadal timescale, with transitions during the first half of the calendar year being relatively more common during the first half of the tropical radiosonde wind record. Combining these two results suggests that decadal changes in HTE strength could result from the changing seasonality of QBO phase transitions. Citation: Anstey, J. A., and T. G. Shepherd (2008), Response of the northern stratospheric polar vortex to the seasonal alignment of QBO phase transitions, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L22810, doi:10.1029/2008GL035721.
Resumo:
The climate and natural variability of the large-scale stratospheric circulation simulated by a newly developed general circulation model are evaluated against available global observations. The simulation consisted of a 30-year annual cycle integration performed with a comprehensive model of the troposphere and stratosphere. The observations consisted of a 15-year dataset from global operational analyses of the troposphere and stratosphere. The model evaluation concentrates on the simulation of the evolution of the extratropical stratospheric circulation in both hemispheres. The December–February climatology of the observed zonal mean winter circulation is found to be reasonably well captured by the model, although in the Northern Hemisphere upper stratosphere the simulated westerly winds are systematically stronger and a cold bias is apparent in the polar stratosphere. This Northern Hemisphere stratospheric cold bias virtually disappears during spring (March–May), consistent with a realistic simulation of the spring weakening of the mean westerly winds in the model. A considerable amount of monthly interannual variability is also found in the simulation in the Northern Hemisphere in late winter and early spring. The simulated interannual variability is predominantly caused by polar warmings of the stratosphere, in agreement with observations. The breakdown of the Northern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex appears therefore to occur in a realistic way in the model. However, in early winter the model severely underestimates the interannual variability, especially in the upper troposphere. The Southern Hemisphere winter (June–August) zonal mean temperature is systematically colder in the model, and the simulated winds are somewhat too strong in the upper stratosphere. Contrary to the results for the Northern Hemisphere spring, this model cold bias worsens during the Southern Hemisphere spring (September–November). Significant discrepancies between the model results and the observations are therefore found during the breakdown of the Southern Hemisphere polar vortex. For instance, the simulated Southern Hemisphere stratosphere westerly jet continuously decreases in intensity more or less in situ from June to November, while the observed stratospheric jet moves downward and poleward.
Resumo:
A continuous tropospheric and stratospheric vertically resolved ozone time series, from 1850 to 2099, has been generated to be used as forcing in global climate models that do not include interactive chemistry. A multiple linear regression analysis of SAGE I+II satellite observations and polar ozonesonde measurements is used for the stratospheric zonal mean dataset during the well-observed period from 1979 to 2009. In addition to terms describing the mean annual cycle, the regression includes terms representing equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC) and the 11-yr solar cycle variability. The EESC regression fit coefficients, together with pre-1979 EESC values, are used to extrapolate the stratospheric ozone time series backward to 1850. While a similar procedure could be used to extrapolate into the future, coupled chemistry climate model (CCM) simulations indicate that future stratospheric ozone abundances are likely to be significantly affected by climate change, and capturing such effects through a regression model approach is not feasible. Therefore, the stratospheric ozone dataset is extended into the future (merged in 2009) with multimodel mean projections from 13 CCMs that performed a simulation until 2099 under the SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) A1B greenhouse gas scenario and the A1 adjusted halogen scenario in the second round of the Chemistry-Climate Model Validation (CCMVal-2) Activity. The stratospheric zonal mean ozone time series is merged with a three-dimensional tropospheric data set extracted from simulations of the past by two CCMs (CAM3.5 and GISSPUCCINI)and of the future by one CCM (CAM3.5). The future tropospheric ozone time series continues the historical CAM3.5 simulation until 2099 following the four different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Generally good agreement is found between the historical segment of the ozone database and satellite observations, although it should be noted that total column ozone is overestimated in the southern polar latitudes during spring and tropospheric column ozone is slightly underestimated. Vertical profiles of tropospheric ozone are broadly consistent with ozonesondes and in-situ measurements, with some deviations in regions of biomass burning. The tropospheric ozone radiative forcing (RF) from the 1850s to the 2000s is 0.23Wm−2, lower than previous results. The lower value is mainly due to (i) a smaller increase in biomass burning emissions; (ii) a larger influence of stratospheric ozone depletion on upper tropospheric ozone at high southern latitudes; and possibly (iii) a larger influence of clouds (which act to reduce the net forcing) compared to previous radiative forcing calculations. Over the same period, decreases in stratospheric ozone, mainly at high latitudes, produce a RF of −0.08Wm−2, which is more negative than the central Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) value of −0.05Wm−2, but which is within the stated range of −0.15 to +0.05Wm−2. The more negative value is explained by the fact that the regression model simulates significant ozone depletion prior to 1979, in line with the increase in EESC and as confirmed by CCMs, while the AR4 assumed no change in stratospheric RF prior to 1979. A negative RF of similar magnitude persists into the future, although its location shifts from high latitudes to the tropics. This shift is due to increases in polar stratospheric ozone, but decreases in tropical lower stratospheric ozone, related to a strengthening of the Brewer-Dobson circulation, particularly through the latter half of the 21st century. Differences in trends in tropospheric ozone among the four RCPs are mainly driven by different methane concentrations, resulting in a range of tropospheric ozone RFs between 0.4 and 0.1Wm−2 by 2100. The ozone dataset described here has been released for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) model simulations in netCDF Climate and Forecast (CF) Metadata Convention at the PCMDI website (http://cmip-pcmdi.llnl.gov/).
Resumo:
Simulations of the stratosphere from thirteen coupled chemistry-climate models (CCMs) are evaluated to provide guidance for the interpretation of ozone predictions made by the same CCMs. The focus of the evaluation is on how well the fields and processes that are important for determining the ozone distribution are represented in the simulations of the recent past. The core period of the evaluation is from 1980 to 1999 but long-term trends are compared for an extended period (1960–2004). Comparisons of polar high-latitude temperatures show that most CCMs have only small biases in the Northern Hemisphere in winter and spring, but still have cold biases in the Southern Hemisphere spring below 10 hPa. Most CCMs display the correct stratospheric response of polar temperatures to wave forcing in the Northern, but not in the Southern Hemisphere. Global long-term stratospheric temperature trends are in reasonable agreement with satellite and radiosonde observations. Comparisons of simulations of methane, mean age of air, and propagation of the annual cycle in water vapor show a wide spread in the results, indicating differences in transport. However, for around half the models there is reasonable agreement with observations. In these models the mean age of air and the water vapor tape recorder signal are generally better than reported in previous model intercomparisons. Comparisons of the water vapor and inorganic chlorine (Cly) fields also show a large intermodel spread. Differences in tropical water vapor mixing ratios in the lower stratosphere are primarily related to biases in the simulated tropical tropopause temperatures and not transport. The spread in Cly, which is largest in the polar lower stratosphere, appears to be primarily related to transport differences. In general the amplitude and phase of the annual cycle in total ozone is well simulated apart from the southern high latitudes. Most CCMs show reasonable agreement with observed total ozone trends and variability on a global scale, but a greater spread in the ozone trends in polar regions in spring, especially in the Arctic. In conclusion, despite the wide range of skills in representing different processes assessed here, there is sufficient agreement between the majority of the CCMs and the observations that some confidence can be placed in their predictions.
Resumo:
The dynamics of the tropical upwelling branch of the stratospheric Brewer–Dobson circulation are examined, with a particular focus on the role of the middle-atmosphere Hadley circulation. Upwelling is examined in terms of both the diabatic circulation and Lagrangian trajectories using a zonally symmetric balance model. The behavior of the wave-driven circulation in the presence of angular momentum redistribution by the Hadley circulation is also considered. The results of the zonally symmetric model are compared with fields from a middle-atmosphere GCM. It is found that the Hadley circulation makes a significant contribution to annual mean tropical upwelling at the upwelling maximum in the vicinity of the stratopause, and can account for most of the annual mean upwelling seen in the GCM. In the mid- to lower stratosphere, the role of the Hadley circulation is much weaker and wave drag appears to be required to explain the observed upwelling, although the Hadley circulation makes a nonnegligible contribution to the annual cycle of the upwelling. Subtropical wave drag can produce annual mean upwelling through a nonlinear mechanism; viscosity is not required. However, the magnitude of the observed upwelling suggests that wave drag must penetrate quite close to the equator.
Resumo:
In the tropical middle atmosphere the climatological radiative equilibrium temperature is inconsistent with gradient-wind balance and the available angular momentum, especially during solstice seasons. Adjustment toward a balanced state results in a type of Hadley circulation that lies outside the “downward control” view of zonally averaged dynamics. This middle-atmosphere Hadley circulation is reexamined here using a zonally symmetric balance model driven through an annual cycle. It is found that the inclusion of a realistic radiation scheme leads to a concentration of the circulation near the stratopause and to its closing off in the mesosphere, with no need for relaxational damping or a rigid lid. The evolving zonal flow is inertially unstable, leading to a rapid process of inertial adjustment, which becomes significant in the mesosphere. This short-circuits the slower process of angular momentum homogenization by the Hadley circulation itself, thereby weakening the latter. The effect of the meridional circulation associated with extratropical wave drag on the Hadley circulation is considered. It is shown that the two circulations are independent for linear (quasigeostrophic) zonal-mean dynamics, and interact primarily through the advection of temperature and angular momentum. There appears to be no significant coupling in the deep Tropics via temperature advection since the wave-driven circulation is unable to alter meridional temperature gradients in this region. However, the wave-driven circulation can affect the Hadley circulation by advecting angular momentum out of the Tropics. The validity of the zonally symmetric balance model with parameterized inertial adjustment is tested by comparison with a three-dimensional primitive equations model. Fields from a middle-atmosphere GCM are also examined for evidence of these processes. While many aspects of the GCM circulation are indicative of the middle-atmosphere Hadley circulation, particularly in the upper stratosphere, it appears that the circulation is obscured in the mesosphere and lower stratosphere by other processes.
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The Canadian Middle Atmosphere Modelling (MAM) project is a collaboration between thé Atmospheric Environment Service (AES) of Environment Canada and several Canadian universities. Its goal is thé development of a comprehensive General Circulation Model of the troposphere-stratosphere-mesosphere System, starting from the AES/CCCma third-generation atmospheric General Circulation Model. This paper describes the basic features of the first-generation Canadian MAM and some aspects of its radiative-dynamical climatology. Standard first-order mean diagnostics are presented for monthly means and for the annual cycle of zonal-mean winds and temperatures. The mean meridional circulation is examined, and comparison is made between thé steady diabatic, downward controlled, and residual stream functions. It is found that downward control holds quite well in the monthly mean through most of the middle atmosphere, even during equinoctal periods. The relative roles of different drag processes in determining the mean downwelling over the wintertime polar middle stratosphere is examined, and the vertical structure of the drag is quantified.
Resumo:
Airborne high resolution in situ measurements of a large set of trace gases including ozone (O3) and total water (H2O) in the upper troposphere and the lowermost stratosphere (UT/LMS) have been performed above Europe within the SPURT project. SPURT provides an extensive data coverage of the UT/LMS in each season within the time period between November 2001 and July 2003. In the LMS a distinct spring maximum and autumn minimum is observed in O3, whereas its annual cycle in the UT is shifted by 2–3 months later towards the end of the year. The more variable H2O measurements reveal a maximum during summer and a minimum during autumn/winter with no phase shift between the two atmospheric compartments. For a comprehensive insight into trace gas composition and variability in the UT/LMS several statistical methods are applied using chemical, thermal and dynamical vertical coordinates. In particular, 2-dimensional probability distribution functions serve as a tool to transform localised aircraft data to a more comprehensive view of the probed atmospheric region. It appears that both trace gases, O3 and H2O, reveal the most compact arrangement and are best correlated in the view of potential vorticity (PV) and distance to the local tropopause, indicating an advanced mixing state on these surfaces. Thus, strong gradients of PV seem to act as a transport barrier both in the vertical and the horizontal direction. The alignment of trace gas isopleths reflects the existence of a year-round extra-tropical tropopause transition layer. The SPURT measurements reveal that this layer is mainly affected by stratospheric air during winter/spring and by tropospheric air during autumn/summer. Normalised mixing entropy values for O3 and H2O in the LMS appear to be maximal during spring and summer, respectively, indicating highest variability of these trace gases during the respective seasons.
Resumo:
The effect of diurnal variations in sea surface temperature (SST) on the air-sea flux of CO2 over the central Atlantic ocean and Mediterranean Sea (60 S–60 N, 60 W–45 E) is evaluated for 2005–2006. We use high spatial resolution hourly satellite ocean skin temperature data to determine the diurnal warming (ΔSST). The CO2 flux is then computed using three different temperature fields – a foundation temperature (Tf, measured at a depth where there is no diurnal variation), Tf, plus the hourly ΔSST and Tf, plus the monthly average of the ΔSSTs. This is done in conjunction with a physically-based parameterisation for the gas transfer velocity (NOAA-COARE). The differences between the fluxes evaluated for these three different temperature fields quantify the effects of both diurnal warming and diurnal covariations. We find that including diurnal warming increases the CO2 flux out of this region of the Atlantic for 2005–2006 from 9.6 Tg C a−1 to 30.4 Tg C a−1 (hourly ΔSST) and 31.2 Tg C a−1 (monthly average of ΔSST measurements). Diurnal warming in this region, therefore, has a large impact on the annual net CO2 flux but diurnal covariations are negligible. However, in this region of the Atlantic the uptake and outgassing of CO2 is approximately balanced over the annual cycle, so although we find diurnal warming has a very large effect here, the Atlantic as a whole is a very strong carbon sink (e.g. −920 Tg C a−1 Takahashi et al., 2002) making this is a small contribution to the Atlantic carbon budget.
Resumo:
The total reactive phosphorus (TRP) and nitrate concentrations of the River Enborne, southern England, were monitored at hourly interval between January 2010 and December 2011. The relationships between these high-frequency nutrient concentration signals and flow were used to infer changes in nutrient source and dynamics through the annual cycle and each individual storm event, by studying hysteresis patterns. TRP concentrations exhibited strong dilution patterns with increasing flow, and predominantly clockwise hysteresis through storm events. Despite the Enborne catchment being relatively rural for southern England, TRP inputs were dominated by constant, non-rain-related inputs from sewage treatment works (STW) for the majority of the year, producing the highest phosphorus concentrations through the spring–summer growing season. At higher river flows, the majority of the TRP load was derived from within-channel remobilisation of phosphorus from the bed sediment, much of which was also derived from STW inputs. Therefore, future phosphorus mitigation measures should focus on STW improvements. Agricultural diffuse TRP inputs were only evident during storms in the May of each year, probably relating to manure application to land. The nitrate concentration–flow relationship produced a series of dilution curves, indicating major inputs from groundwater and to a lesser extent STW. Significant diffuse agricultural inputs with anticlockwise hysteresis trajectories were observed during the first major storms of the winter period. The simultaneous investigation of high-frequency time series data, concentration–flow relationships and hysteresis behaviour through multiple storms for both phosphorus and nitrate offers a simple and innovative approach for providing new insights into nutrient sources and dynamics.