Expected value, reward outcome, and temporal difference error representations in a probabilistic decision task

In probabilistic decision tasks, an expected value (EV) of a choice is calculated, and after the choice has been made, this can be updated based on a temporal difference (TD) prediction error between the EV and the reward magnitude (RM) obtained. The EV is measured as the probability of obtaining a reward x RM. To understand the contribution of different brain areas to these decision-making processes, functional magnetic resonance imaging activations related to EV versus RM (or outcome) were measured in a probabilistic decision task. Activations in the medial orbitofrontal cortex were correlated with both RM and with EV and confirmed in a conjunction analysis to extend toward the pregenual cingulate cortex. From these representations, TD reward prediction errors could be produced. Activations in areas that receive from the orbitofrontal cortex including the ventral striatum, midbrain, and inferior frontal gyrus were correlated with the TD error. Activations in the anterior insula were correlated negatively with EV, occurring when low reward outcomes were expected, and also with the uncertainty of the reward, implicating this region in basic and crucial decision-making parameters, low expected outcomes, and uncertainty.

On mathematical and physical principles of transformations of the coherent radar backscatter matrix

The congruential rule advanced by Graves for polarization basis transformation of the radar backscatter matrix is now often misinterpreted as an example of consimilarity transformation. However, consimilarity transformations imply a physically unrealistic antilinear time-reversal operation. This is just one of the approaches found in literature to the description of transformations where the role of conjugation has been misunderstood. In this paper, the different approaches are examined in particular in respect to the role of conjugation. In order to justify and correctly derive the congruential rule for polarization basis transformation and properly place the role of conjugation, the origin of the problem is traced back to the derivation of the antenna height from the transmitted field. In fact, careful consideration of the role played by the Green’s dyadic operator relating the antenna height to the transmitted field shows that, under general unitary basis transformation, it is not justified to assume a scalar relationship between them. Invariance of the voltage equation shows that antenna states and wave states must in fact lie in dual spaces, a distinction not captured in conventional Jones vector formalism. Introducing spinor formalism, and with the use of an alternate spin frame for the transmitted field a mathematically consistent implementation of the directional wave formalism is obtained. Examples are given comparing the wider generality of the congruential rule in both active and passive transformations with the consimilarity rule.

The EarthCARE satellite: the next step forward in global measurements of clouds, aerosols, precipitation, and radiation

The collective representation within global models of aerosol, cloud, precipitation, and their radiative properties remains unsatisfactory. They constitute the largest source of uncertainty in predictions of climatic change and hamper the ability of numerical weather prediction models to forecast high-impact weather events. The joint European Space Agency (ESA)–Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) Earth Clouds, Aerosol and Radiation Explorer (EarthCARE) satellite mission, scheduled for launch in 2018, will help to resolve these weaknesses by providing global profiles of cloud, aerosol, precipitation, and associated radiative properties inferred from a combination of measurements made by its collocated active and passive sensors. EarthCARE will improve our understanding of cloud and aerosol processes by extending the invaluable dataset acquired by the A-Train satellites CloudSat, Cloud–Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO), and Aqua. Specifically, EarthCARE’s cloud profiling radar, with 7 dB more sensitivity than CloudSat, will detect more thin clouds and its Doppler capability will provide novel information on convection, precipitating ice particle, and raindrop fall speeds. EarthCARE’s 355-nm high-spectral-resolution lidar will measure directly and accurately cloud and aerosol extinction and optical depth. Combining this with backscatter and polarization information should lead to an unprecedented ability to identify aerosol type. The multispectral imager will provide a context for, and the ability to construct, the cloud and aerosol distribution in 3D domains around the narrow 2D retrieved cross section. The consistency of the retrievals will be assessed to within a target of ±10 W m–2 on the (10 km)2 scale by comparing the multiview broadband radiometer observations to the top-of-atmosphere fluxes estimated by 3D radiative transfer models acting on retrieved 3D domains.

Meta-analysis to integrate effect sizes within a paper: Possible misuse and Type-1 error inflation

In recent years an increasing number of papers have employed meta-analysis to integrate effect sizes of researchers’ own series of studies within a single paper (“internal meta-analysis”). Although this approach has the obvious advantage of obtaining narrower confidence intervals, we show that it could inadvertently inflate false-positive rates if researchers are motivated to use internal meta-analysis in order to obtain a significant overall effect. Specifically, if one decides whether to stop or continue a further replication experiment depending on the significance of the results in an internal meta-analysis, false-positive rates would increase beyond the nominal level. We conducted a set of Monte-Carlo simulations to demonstrate our argument, and provided a literature review to gauge awareness and prevalence of this issue. Furthermore, we made several recommendations when using internal meta-analysis to make a judgment on statistical significance.

Kinematical analysis of redundant drive wire mechanisms with velocity constraint

In this paper, we propose a new velocity constraint type for Redundant Drive Wire Mechanisms. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate that the proposed velocity constraint module can fix the orientation of the movable part and to use the kinematical analysis method to obtain the moving direction of the movable part. First, we discuss the necessity of using this velocity constraint type and the possible applications of the proposed mechanism. Second, we derive the basic equations of a wire mechanism with this constraint type. Next, we present a method of motion analysis on active and passive constraint spaces, which is used to find the moving direction of a movable part. Finally, we apply the above analysis method on a wire mechanism with a velocity constraint module and on a wire mechanism with four double actuator modules. By evaluating the results, we prove the validity of the proposed constraint type.

JOYCE: Jülich Observatory for cloud evolution

The Jülich Observatory for Cloud Evolution (JOYCE), located at Forschungszentrum Jülich in the most western part of Germany, is a recently established platform for cloud research. The main objective of JOYCE is to provide observations, which improve our understanding of the cloudy boundary layer in a midlatitude environment. Continuous and temporally highly resolved measurements that are specifically suited to characterize the diurnal cycle of water vapor, stability, and turbulence in the lower troposphere are performed with a special focus on atmosphere–surface interaction. In addition, instruments are set up to measure the micro- and macrophysical properties of clouds in detail and how they interact with different boundary layer processes and the large-scale synoptic situation. For this, JOYCE is equipped with an array of state-of-the-art active and passive remote sensing and in situ instruments, which are briefly described in this scientific overview. As an example, a 24-h time series of the evolution of a typical cumulus cloud-topped boundary layer is analyzed with respect to stability, turbulence, and cloud properties. Additionally, we present longer-term statistics, which can be used to elucidate the diurnal cycle of water vapor, drizzle formation through autoconversion, and warm versus cold rain precipitation formation. Both case studies and long-term observations are important for improving the representation of clouds in climate and numerical weather prediction models.

A trading strategy based on the lead–lag relationship between the spot index and futures contract for the FTSE 100

This paper examines the lead–lag relationship between the FTSE 100 index and index futures price employing a number of time series models. Using 10-min observations from June 1996–1997, it is found that lagged changes in the futures price can help to predict changes in the spot price. The best forecasting model is of the error correction type, allowing for the theoretical difference between spot and futures prices according to the cost of carry relationship. This predictive ability is in turn utilised to derive a trading strategy which is tested under real-world conditions to search for systematic profitable trading opportunities. It is revealed that although the model forecasts produce significantly higher returns than a passive benchmark, the model was unable to outperform the benchmark after allowing for transaction costs.

Reliability comparison of transmit/receive diversity and error control coding in low-power medium access control protocols

Low-power medium access control (MAC) protocols used for communication of energy constraint wireless embedded devices do not cope well with situations where transmission channels are highly erroneous. Existing MAC protocols discard corrupted messages which lead to costly retransmissions. To improve transmission performance, it is possible to include an error correction scheme and transmit/receive diversity. It is possible to add redundant information to transmitted packets in order to recover data from corrupted packets. It is also possible to make use of transmit/receive diversity via multiple antennas to improve error resiliency of transmissions. Both schemes may be used in conjunction to further improve the performance. In this study, the authors show how an error correction scheme and transmit/receive diversity can be integrated in low-power MAC protocols. Furthermore, the authors investigate the achievable performance gains of both methods. This is important as both methods have associated costs (processing requirements; additional antennas and power) and for a given communication situation it must be decided which methods should be employed. The authors’ results show that, in many practical situations, error control coding outperforms transmission diversity; however, if very high reliability is required, it is useful to employ both schemes together.

Subseasonal extremes of precipitation and active-break cycles of the Indian summer monsoon in a climate-change scenario

Changes to the behaviour of subseasonal precipitation extremes and active-break cycles of the Indian summer monsoon are assessed in this study using pre-industrial and 2 × CO2 integrations of the Hadley Centre coupled model HadCM3, which is able to simulate the monsoon seasonal cycle reasonably. At 2 × CO2, mean summer rainfall increases slightly, especially over central and northern India. The mean intensity of daily precipitation during the monsoon is found to increase, consistent with fewer wet days, and there are increases to heavy rain events beyond changes in the mean alone. The chance of reaching particular thresholds of heavy rainfall is found to approximately double over northern India, increasing the likelihood of damaging floods on a seasonal basis. The local distribution of such projections is uncertain, however, given the large spread in mean monsoon rainfall change and associated extremes amongst even the most recent coupled climate models. The measured increase of the heaviest precipitation events over India is found to be broadly in line with the degree of atmospheric warming and associated increases in specific humidity, lending a degree of predictability to changes in rainfall extremes. Active-break cycles of the Indian summer monsoon, important particularly due to their effect on agricultural output, are shown to be reasonably represented in HadCM3, in particular with some degree of northward propagation. We note an intensification of both active and break events, particularly when measured against the annual cycle, although there is no suggestion of any change to the duration or likelihood of monsoon breaks. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society

Active networks: an evolution of the internet

Active Networks can be seen as an evolution of the classical model of packet-switched networks. The traditional and ”passive” network model is based on a static definition of the network node behaviour. Active Networks propose an “active” model where the intermediate nodes (switches and routers) can load and execute user code contained in the data units (packets). Active Networks are a programmable network model, where bandwidth and computation are both considered shared network resources. This approach opens up new interesting research fields. This paper gives a short introduction of Active Networks, discusses the advantages they introduce and presents the research advances in this field.

Remote gas detection and quantitative analysis from infrared emission spectra obtained by Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy

Techniques for obtaining quantitative values of the temperatures and concentrations of remote hot gaseous effluents from their measured passive emission spectra have been examined in laboratory experiments. The high sensitivity of the spectrometer in the vicinity of the 2397 cm-1 band head region of CO2 has allowed the gas temperature to be calculated from the relative intensity of the observed rotational lines. The spatial distribution of the CO2 in a methane flame has been reconstructed tomographically using a matrix inversion technique. The spectrometer has been calibrated against a black body source at different temperatures and a self absorption correction has been applied to the data avoiding the need to measure the transmission directly. Reconstruction artifacts have been reduced by applying a smoothing routine to the inversion matrix.

Threshold effects in price transmission: The case of Brazilian wheat, maize, and soya prices

Recent studies into price transmission have recognized the important role played by transport and transaction costs. Threshold models are one approach to accommodate such costs. We develop a generalized Threshold Error Correction Model to test for the presence and form of threshold behavior in price transmission that is symmetric around equilibrium. We use monthly wheat, maize, and soya prices from the United States, Argentina, and Brazil to demonstrate this model. Classical estimation of these generalized models can present challenges but Bayesian techniques avoid many of these problems. Evidence for thresholds is found in three of the five commodity price pairs investigated.

A structural time series approach to modelling multiple and resurgent meat scares in Italy

This paper exploits a structural time series approach to model the time pattern of multiple and resurgent food scares and their direct and cross-product impacts on consumer response. A structural time series Almost Ideal Demand System (STS-AIDS) is embedded in a vector error correction framework to allow for dynamic effects (VEC-STS-AIDS). Italian aggregate household data on meat demand is used to assess the time-varying impact of a resurgent BSE crisis (1996 and 2000) and the 1999 Dioxin crisis. The VEC-STS-AIDS model monitors the short-run impacts and performs satisfactorily in terms of residuals diagnostics, overcoming the major problems encountered by the customary vector error correction approach.

Optokinetic stimulation induces illusory movement of both out-of-the-body and on-the-body hand-held visual objects

The coding of body part location may depend upon both visual and proprioceptive information, and allows targets to be localized with respect to the body. The present study investigates the interaction between visual and proprioceptive localization systems under conditions of multisensory conflict induced by optokinetic stimulation (OKS). Healthy subjects were asked to estimate the apparent motion speed of a visual target (LED) that could be located either in the extrapersonal space (visual encoding only, V), or at the same distance, but stuck on the subject's right index finger-tip (visual and proprioceptive encoding, V-P). Additionally, the multisensory condition was performed with the index finger kept in position both passively (V-P passive) and actively (V-P active). Results showed that the visual stimulus was always perceived to move, irrespective of its out- or on-the-body location. Moreover, this apparent motion speed varied consistently with the speed of the moving OKS background in all conditions. Surprisingly, no differences were found between V-P active and V-P passive conditions in the speed of apparent motion. The persistence of the visual illusion during the active posture maintenance reveals a novel condition in which vision totally dominates over proprioceptive information, suggesting that the hand-held visual stimulus was perceived as a purely visual, external object despite its contact with the hand.

Reach & grasp therapy: Design and control of a 9-DOF robotic neuro-rehabilitation system

This paper presents the Gentle/G integrated system for reach & grasp therapy retraining following brain injury. The design, control and integration of an experimental grasp assistance unit is described for use in robot assisted stroke rehabilitation. The grasp assist unit is intended to work with the hardware and software of the Gentle/S robot although the hardware could be adapted to other rehabilitation applications. When used with the Gentle/S robot a total of 6 active and 3 passive degrees of freedom are available to provide active, active assist or passive grasp retraining in combination with reaching movements in a reach-grasp-transfer-release sequence.