Forecasting US output growth with non-linear models in the presence of data uncertainty

We consider the impact of data revisions on the forecast performance of a SETAR regime-switching model of U.S. output growth. The impact of data uncertainty in real-time forecasting will affect a model's forecast performance via the effect on the model parameter estimates as well as via the forecast being conditioned on data measured with error. We find that benchmark revisions do affect the performance of the non-linear model of the growth rate, and that the performance relative to a linear comparator deteriorates in real-time compared to a pseudo out-of-sample forecasting exercise.

The origins and impact of proportional representation

This article in the peer-reviewed Oxford Bibliographies series, gives an introduction to the literatures on the varieties, origins, and effects of proportional electoral systems.

'The house of books': libraries and archives in Ancient Egypt

In 1957, John Sperry Jr. published an article in Libri entitled “Egyptian libraries: a survey of the evidence.” Some 55 years on, this article revisits the subject, taking into account research undertaken in the field of Egyptology over the last half a century. Based on an extended essay written for the online Certificate in Egyptology course at the University of Manchester, this article considers the evidence for the existence of “institutional” (that is, created for the use and functioning of the state) libraries and archives in Ancient Egypt throughout the dynastic period (c.3500−30 B.C.); their history, purpose and, to some extent, their administration. It also considers an aspect not explored in Sperry’s article, that of “private” libraries in Ancient Egypt (texts collected by an individual for their own personal use). Whilst estimated literacy levels within the general population precluded the widespread collection of texts for personal edification, there is evidence to suggest that private libraries were present in Ancient Egypt. The article concludes with a brief assessment of the legacy of these ancient libraries and their influence on the creation of the Library of Alexandria, in both its ancient and modern manifestations.

Toward a theory of semantic representation

We present an account of semantic representation that focuses on distinct types of information from which word meanings can be learned. In particular, we argue that there are at least two major types of information from which we learn word meanings. The first is what we call experiential information. This is data derived both from our sensory-motor interactions with the outside world, as well as from our experience of own inner states, particularly our emotions. The second type of information is language-based. In particular, it is derived from the general linguistic context in which words appear. The paper spells out this proposal, summarizes research supporting this view and presents new predictions emerging from this framework.

Exploring smart grid possibilities: a complex systems modelling approach

Smart grid research has tended to be compartmentalised, with notable contributions from economics, electrical engineering and science and technology studies. However, there is an acknowledged and growing need for an integrated systems approach to the evaluation of smart grid initiatives. The capacity to simulate and explore smart grid possibilities on various scales is key to such an integrated approach but existing models – even if multidisciplinary – tend to have a limited focus. This paper describes an innovative and flexible framework that has been developed to facilitate the simulation of various smart grid scenarios and the interconnected social, technical and economic networks from a complex systems perspective. The architecture is described and related to realised examples of its use, both to model the electricity system as it is today and to model futures that have been envisioned in the literature. Potential future applications of the framework are explored, along with its utility as an analytic and decision support tool for smart grid stakeholders.

Medieval romance, English

Annotated bibliography of romance from medieval England. It focuses on medieval romances in various languages written in England or translated into English before 1500.