Estimators in capture–recapture studies with two sources

This paper investigates the applications of capture–recapture methods to human populations. Capture–recapture methods are commonly used in estimating the size of wildlife populations but can also be used in epidemiology and social sciences, for estimating prevalence of a particular disease or the size of the homeless population in a certain area. Here we focus on estimating the prevalence of infectious diseases. Several estimators of population size are considered: the Lincoln–Petersen estimator and its modified version, the Chapman estimator, Chao’s lower bound estimator, the Zelterman’s estimator, McKendrick’s moment estimator and the maximum likelihood estimator. In order to evaluate these estimators, they are applied to real, three-source, capture-recapture data. By conditioning on each of the sources of three source data, we have been able to compare the estimators with the true value that they are estimating. The Chapman and Chao estimators were compared in terms of their relative bias. A variance formula derived through conditioning is suggested for Chao’s estimator, and normal 95% confidence intervals are calculated for this and the Chapman estimator. We then compare the coverage of the respective confidence intervals. Furthermore, a simulation study is included to compare Chao’s and Chapman’s estimator. Results indicate that Chao’s estimator is less biased than Chapman’s estimator unless both sources are independent. Chao’s estimator has also the smaller mean squared error. Finally, the implications and limitations of the above methods are discussed, with suggestions for further development.

An application of the DEA double bootstrap to examine sources of efficiency in Bangladesh rice farming

In this article we examine sources of technical efficiency for rice farming in Bangladesh. The motivation for the analysis is the need to close the rice yield gap to enable food security. We employ the DEA double bootstrap of Simar and Wilson (2007) to estimate and explain technical efficiency. This technique overcomes severe limitations inherent in using the two-stage DEA approach commonly employed in the efficiency literature. From a policy perspective our results show that potential efficiency gains to reduce the yield gap are greater than previously found. Statistically positive influences on technical efficiency are education, extension and credit, with age being a negative influence.

In vitro evaluation of fibrolytic enzymes as additives for maize (Zea mays L.) silage - III. Comparison of enzymes derived from psychrophilic, mesophilic or thermophilic sources

A completely randomised study was completed to examine the influence of fibrolytic enzymes derived from psychrophilic, (F), mesophilic, (L) or thermophilic (Ta) sources, applied at ensiling, on the chemical characteristics and in vitro rumen fermentation of maize silage, assessed using the Reading Pressure Technique (RPT). Treatments, all in triplicate, consisted of untreated maize forage or treated with preparations F, L, Ta or a mixture (1: 1, v/v) of F and L (FL), at two levels each, and ensiled for 210 days in plastic mini-silos. Addition of enzymes L decreased (P < 0.05) silage pH relative to the control, whereas enzyme Ta tended (P < 0.10) to reduce it. Preparations F, L and Ta tended to reduce (P < 0.10) the fibre contents of the silages, with effects being attributable to a decrease in the cellulose fraction. Starch contents were reduced (P < 0.05) in the treatments including enzyme F. End-point (96 h) gas production (GP) values did not differ among treatments, suggesting that enzymes did not change the total amount of fermentable substrate. However, consistent with the decrease in starch contents, adding enzyme F reduced (P < 0.05) GP at most incubation times. Addition of enzymes increased (P < 0.05) the initial (6 h) organic matter degradation (OMD) levels in all but one treatment (F), with increases of 14, 19, and 26% for preparations L, Ta, and FL, respectively, averaged across levels. Furthermore, the addition of enzymes increased (P < 0.05) the soluble OM losses, however, these increases did not fully account for the initial increase in OMD. The latter suggests that enzymes increased solubility and also altered silage structure, making it more amenable to degradation by ruminal microorganisms. As a result of the increase in OMD, without a concomitant increase in GP, the fermentation efficiency was greatly increased (P < 0.05) in enzyme treatments. Addition of enzymes to maize at ensiling, particularly those from the mesophilic and thermophilic sources used here, have the potential to increase the initial rate of silage OMD. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Recovery of nitrogen from different sources following applications to winter wheat at and after anthesis

The effects of applying nitrogen (30 or 40 kg N/ha) to wheat crops at and after anthesis, after 200 kg N/ha had already been applied to the soil during stem extension, were studied in field experiments comprising complete factorial combinations of different cultivars, fungicide applications and nitrogen treatments. Actual recoveries of late-season fertilizer nitrogen (LSFN), as indicated by N-15 studies, interacted with cultivar and fungicide treatment, and depended on nitrogen source (Urea applied as a solution to the foliage, or as ammonium nitrate applied to the soil) and year. These interactions, however, were not reflected in apparent fertilizer recoveries ((N in grain with LSFN - N in grain without LSFN)/N applied as LSFN), or in the crude protein concentration. Apparent fertilizer recovery was always lower than actual recoveries, and declined during grain filling. Fertilizer treatments with higher actual fertilizer recoveries were associated with lower net renlobilisation of non-LSFN (net remobilised N = N in above ground crop at anthesis - N in non-grain, above ground crop at harvest). LSFN also increased mineral nitrogen in the soil at harvest even when applied as a solution to the foliage. These effects are discussed in relation to potential grain N demand. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Pea-barley intercrops use nitrogen sources 20-30% more efficiently than the sole crops

Field pea (Pisum sativum L.) and spring barley (Hordeum vulgare L) were intercropped and sole cropped to compare the effects of crop diversity on the use of nitrogen sources in European organic crop-ping systems. Across a wide range of growing condi-tions pea-barley intercropping showed that nitrogen sources were used from 17 to 31% more efficiently by the intercrop than by the sole crops. Intercropping technologies offers the opportunity for organic cropping systems to utilize N complementarity between component crops, without compromising total crop N yield levels

Determinants of intention to purchase chicken in Italy: the role of consumer risk perception and trust in different information sources

The article investigates how purchasing intentions among a sample of Italian consumers are influenced by different levels of risk perception and their trust in food-safety information provided by different sources such as the food industry, government agencies, or consumers' associations. The assessment of the determinants of intention to purchase was carried out by estimating a causal model for the chicken case in which attitudes, subjective norms, and perceived risk play a major role in determining buyer's behavior. In particular, the role of trust in influencing risk perception is highlighted either as a general construct or as specific constructs targeting food chain, policy actors, and the media. [EconLit citations: Q130, Q190, D120]. (C) 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Estimators in capture-recapture studies with two sources

This paper investigates the applications of capture-recapture methods to human populations. Capture-recapture methods are commonly used in estimating the size of wildlife populations but can also be used in epidemiology and social sciences, for estimating prevalence of a particular disease or the size of the homeless population in a certain area. Here we focus on estimating the prevalence of infectious diseases. Several estimators of population size are considered: the Lincoln-Petersen estimator and its modified version, the Chapman estimator, Chao's lower bound estimator, the Zelterman's estimator, McKendrick's moment estimator and the maximum likelihood estimator. In order to evaluate these estimators, they are applied to real, three-source, capture-recapture data. By conditioning on each of the sources of three source data, we have been able to compare the estimators with the true value that they are estimating. The Chapman and Chao estimators were compared in terms of their relative bias. A variance formula derived through conditioning is suggested for Chao's estimator, and normal 95% confidence intervals are calculated for this and the Chapman estimator. We then compare the coverage of the respective confidence intervals. Furthermore, a simulation study is included to compare Chao's and Chapman's estimator. Results indicate that Chao's estimator is less biased than Chapman's estimator unless both sources are independent. Chao's estimator has also the smaller mean squared error. Finally, the implications and limitations of the above methods are discussed, with suggestions for further development.

Conservation and sustainable use of wild species as sources of new ornamentals

While only about 1-200 species are used intensively in commercial floriculture (e.g. carnations, chrysanthemums, gerbera, narcissus, orchids, tulips, lilies, roses, pansies and violas, saintpaulias, etc.) and 4-500 as house plants, several thousand species of herbs, shrubs and trees are traded commercially by nurseries and garden centres as ornamentals or amenity species. Most of these have been introduced from the wild with little selection or breeding. In Europe alone, 12 000 species are found in cultivation in general garden collections (i.e. excluding specialist collections and botanic gardens). In addition, specialist collections (often very large) of many other species and/or cultivars of groups such as orchids, bromeliads, cacti and succulents, primulas, rhododendrons, conifers and cycads are maintained in several centres such as botanic gardens and specialist nurseries, as are 'national collections' of cultivated species and cultivars in some countries. Specialist growers, both professional and amateur, also maintain collections of plants for cultivation, including, increasingly, native plants. The trade in ornamental and amenity horticulture cannot be fully estimated but runs into many billions of dollars annually and there is considerable potential for further development and the introduction of many new species into the trade. Despite this, most of the collections are ad hoc and no co-ordinated efforts have been made to ensure that adequate germplasm samples of these species are maintained for conservation purposes and few of them are represented at all adequately in seed banks. Few countries have paid much attention to germplasm needs of ornamentals and the Ornamental Plant Germplasm Center in conjunction with the USDA National Plant Germplasm System at The Ohio State University is an exception. Generally there is a serious gap in national and international germplasm strategies, which have tended to focus primarily on food plants and some forage and industrial crops. Adequate arrangements need to be put in place to ensure the long- and medium-term conservation of representative samples of the genetic diversity of ornamental species. The problems of achieving this will be discussed. In addition, a policy for the conservation of old cultivars or 'heritage' varieties of ornamentals needs to be formulated. The considerable potential for introduction of new ornamental species needs to be assessed. Consideration needs to be given to setting up a co-ordinating structure with overall responsibility for the conservation of germplasm of ornamental and amenity plants.

Changing Standards? Children's awareness and knowledge of features of written standard English at ages 10-11

This paper reports the findings of a small-scale research project, which investigated the levels of awareness and knowledge of written standard English of 10- and 11-year-old children in two English primary schools over a six-year period, coinciding with the implementation in the schools of the National Literacy Strategy (NLS). A questionnaire was used to provide quantitative and qualitative data relating to: features of writing which were recognised as standard or non-standard; children's understanding of technical terminology; variations between boys' and girls' performance; and the impact of the NLS over time. The findings reveal variations in levels of recognition of different non-standard features, differences between girls' and boys' recognition, possible examples of language change, but no evidence of a positive impact of the NLS. The implications of these findings are discussed both in terms of changes in educational standards and changes to standard English.