Regional changes in wind energy potential over Europe using regional climate model ensemble projections

The impact of climate change on wind power generation potentials over Europe is investigated by considering ensemble projections from two regional climate models (RCMs) driven by a global climate model (GCM). Wind energy density and its interannual variability are estimated based on hourly near-surface wind speeds. Additionally, the possible impact of climatic changes on the energy output of a sample 2.5-MW turbine is discussed. GCM-driven RCM simulations capture the behavior and variability of current wind energy indices, even though some differences exist when compared with reanalysis-driven RCM simulations. Toward the end of the twenty-first century, projections show significant changes of energy density on annual average across Europe that are substantially stronger in seasonal terms. The emergence time of these changes varies from region to region and season to season, but some long-term trends are already statistically significant in the middle of the twenty-first century. Over northern and central Europe, the wind energy potential is projected to increase, particularly in winter and autumn. In contrast, energy potential over southern Europe may experience a decrease in all seasons except for the Aegean Sea. Changes for wind energy output follow the same patterns but are of smaller magnitude. The GCM/RCM model chains project a significant intensification of both interannual and intra-annual variability of energy density over parts of western and central Europe, thus imposing new challenges to a reliable pan-European energy supply in future decades.

The impact of monsoon intraseasonal variability on renewable power generation in India

India is increasingly investing in renewable technology to meet rising energy demands, with hydropower and other renewables comprising one-third of current installed capacity. Installed wind-power is projected to increase 5-fold by 2035 (to nearly 100GW) under the International Energy Agency’s New Policies scenario. However, renewable electricity generation is dependent upon the prevailing meteorology, which is strongly influenced by monsoon variability. Prosperity and widespread electrification are increasing the demand for air conditioning, especially during the warm summer. This study uses multi-decadal observations and meteorological reanalysis data to assess the impact of intraseasonal monsoon variability on the balance of electricity supply from wind-power and temperature-related demand in India. Active monsoon phases are characterised by vigorous convection and heavy rainfall over central India. This results in lower temperatures giving lower cooling energy demand, while strong westerly winds yield high wind-power output. In contrast, monsoon breaks are characterised by suppressed precipitation, with higher temperatures and hence greater demand for cooling, and lower wind-power output across much of India. The opposing relationship between wind-power supply and cooling demand during active phases (low demand, high supply) and breaks (high demand, low supply) suggests that monsoon variability will tend to exacerbate fluctuations in the so-called demand-net-wind (i.e., electrical demand that must be supplied from non-wind sources). This study may have important implications for the design of power systems and for investment decisions in conventional schedulable generation facilities (such as coal and gas) that are used to maintain the supply/demand balance. In particular, if it is assumed (as is common) that the generated wind-power operates as a price-taker (i.e., wind farm operators always wish to sell their power, irrespective of price) then investors in conventional facilities will face additional weather-volatility through the monsoonal impact on the length and frequency of production periods (i.e. their load-duration curves).

Gaussian processes autoencoder for dimensionality reduction

Learning low dimensional manifold from highly nonlinear data of high dimensionality has become increasingly important for discovering intrinsic representation that can be utilized for data visualization and preprocessing. The autoencoder is a powerful dimensionality reduction technique based on minimizing reconstruction error, and it has regained popularity because it has been efficiently used for greedy pretraining of deep neural networks. Compared to Neural Network (NN), the superiority of Gaussian Process (GP) has been shown in model inference, optimization and performance. GP has been successfully applied in nonlinear Dimensionality Reduction (DR) algorithms, such as Gaussian Process Latent Variable Model (GPLVM). In this paper we propose the Gaussian Processes Autoencoder Model (GPAM) for dimensionality reduction by extending the classic NN based autoencoder to GP based autoencoder. More interestingly, the novel model can also be viewed as back constrained GPLVM (BC-GPLVM) where the back constraint smooth function is represented by a GP. Experiments verify the performance of the newly proposed model.

Quasi-sure existence of Gaussian rough paths and large deviation principles for capacities

We construct a quasi-sure version (in the sense of Malliavin) of geometric rough paths associated with a Gaussian process with long-time memory. As an application we establish a large deviation principle (LDP) for capacities for such Gaussian rough paths. Together with Lyons' universal limit theorem, our results yield immediately the corresponding results for pathwise solutions to stochastic differential equations driven by such Gaussian process in the sense of rough paths. Moreover, our LDP result implies the result of Yoshida on the LDP for capacities over the abstract Wiener space associated with such Gaussian process.

Language experience shapes the development of the mutual exclusivity bias

Halberda (2003) demonstrated that 17-month-old infants, but not 14- or 16-month-olds, use a strategy known as mutual exclusivity (ME) to identify the meanings of new words. When 17-month-olds were presented with a novel word in an intermodal preferential looking task, they preferentially fixated a novel object over an object for which they already had a name. We explored whether the development of this word-learning strategy is driven by children's experience of hearing only one name for each referent in their environment by comparing the behavior of infants from monolingual and bilingual homes. Monolingual infants aged 17–22 months showed clear evidence of using an ME strategy, in that they preferentially fixated the novel object when they were asked to "look at the dax." Bilingual infants of the same age and vocabulary size failed to show a similar pattern of behavior. We suggest that children who are raised with more than one language fail to develop an ME strategy in parallel with monolingual infants because development of the bias is a consequence of the monolingual child's everyday experiences with words.

Growth of the lava dome and extrusion rates at Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat, West Indies: 2005–2008

The third episode of lava dome growth at Soufrière Hills Volcano began 1 August 2005 and ended 20 April 2007. Volumes of the dome and talus produced were measured using a photo-based method with a calibrated camera for increased accuracy. The total dense rock equivalent (DRE) volume of extruded andesite magma (306 ± 51 Mm3) was similar within error to that produced in the earlier episodes but the average extrusion rate was 5.6 ± 0.9 m3s−1 (DRE), higher than the previous episodes. Extrusion rates varied in a pulsatory manner from <0.5 m3s−1 to ∼20 m3s−1. On 18 May 2006, the lava dome had reached a volume of 85 Mm3 DRE and it was removed in its entirety during a massive dome collapse on 20 May 2006. Extrusion began again almost immediately and built a dome of 170 Mm3 DRE with a summit height 1047 m above sea level by 4 April 2007. There were few moderate-sized dome collapses (1–10 Mm3) during this extrusive episode in contrast to the first episode of dome growth in 1995–8 when they were numerous. The first and third episodes of dome growth showed a similar pattern of low (<0.5 m3s−1) but increasing magma flux during the early stages, with steady high flux after extrusion of ∼25 Mm3

Cell and nuclear degradation in sweetpotato [Ipomoea batatas (L.) Lam.] root meristems following exposure to salinity

Sodium chloride-induced cell and nuclear degradation in the root meristems of sweetpotato [Ipomoea batatas (L.) Lam.] were determined using fluorescent microscopy and flow cytometry analysis. Two sweetpotato cultivars were grown in liquid Murashige and Skoog medium and subjected to 0 mM and 500 mM NaCl, with or without 15 mM CaCl2, for periods up to 24 h. Changes to the nuclei of root meristematic cells showed a similar pattern of damage to the nuclei using both fluorescent microscopy and flow cytometry analysis. Damage occurring after only a few hours was followed by nuclear degradation at 24 h. Flow cytometry histograms showed a reduction in G1 and G2 nuclei and an increase in degraded nuclei in NaCl-stressed roots. Salinity-induced nuclear degradation was alleviated by the addition of CaCl2.

The effects of minimal tillage, contour cultivation, in-field vegetative barriers and crop residues on phosphorus and sediment yields

Runoff, sediment, total phosphorus and total dissolved phosphorus losses in overland flow were measured for two years on unbounded plots cropped with wheat and oats. Half of the field was cultivated with minimum tillage (shallow tillage with a tine cultivator) and half was conventionally ploughed. Within each cultivation treatment there were different treatment areas (TAs). In the first year of the experiment, one TA was cultivated up and down the slope, one TA was cultivated on the contour, with a beetle bank acting as a vegetative barrier partway up the slope, and one had a mixed direction cultivation treatment, with cultivation and drilling conducted up and down the slope and all subsequent operations conducted on the contour. In the second year, this mixed treatment was replaced with contour cultivation. Results showed no significant reduction in runoff, sediment losses or total phosphorus losses from minimum tillage when compared to the conventional plough treatment, but there were increased losses of total dissolved phosphorus with minimum tillage. The mixed direction cultivation treatment increased surface runoff and losses of sediment and phosphorus. Increasing surface roughness with contour cultivation reduced surface runoff compared to up and down slope cultivation in both the plough and minimum tillage treatment areas, but this trend was not significant. Sediment and phosphorus losses in the contour cultivation treatment followed a very similar pattern to runoff. Combining contour cultivation with a vegetative barrier in the form of a beetle bank to reduce slope length resulted in a non-significant reduction in surface runoff, sediment and total phosphorus when compared to up and down slope cultivation, but there was a clear trend towards reduced losses. However, the addition of a beetle bank did not provide a significant reduction in runoff, sediment losses or total phosphorus losses when compared to contour cultivation, suggesting only a marginal additional benefit. The economic implications for farmers of the different treatment options are investigated in order to assess their suitability for implementation at a field scale.

In vitro fermentation of chitosan derivatives by mixed cultures of human faecal bacteria

Stirred, pH controlled batch cultures were carried out with faecal inocula and various chitosans to investigate the fermentation of chitosan derivatives by the human gut flora. Changes in bacterial levels and short chain fatty acids were measured over time. Low, medium and high molecular weight chitosan caused a decrease in bacteroides, bifidobacteria, clostridia and lactobacilli. A similar pattern was seen with chitosan oligosaccharide (COS). Butyrate levels also decreased. A three-stage fermentation model of the human colon was used for investigation of the metabolism of COS. In a region representing the proximal colon, clostridia decreased while lactobacilli increased. In the region representing the transverse colon, bacteroides and clostridia increased. Distally a small increase in bacteroides occurred. Butyrate levels increased. Under the highly competitive conditions of the human colon, many members of the microflora, are unable to compete for chitosans of low, medium or high molecular weight. COS were more easily utilised and when added to an in vitro colonic model led to increased production of butyrate, but some populations of potentially detrimental bacteria also increased. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Physiological changes in Campylobacter jejuni on entry into stationary phase

Campylobacter jejuni NCTC 11168 does not exhibit the general increase in cellular stress resistance on entry into stationary phase that is seen in most other bacteria. This is consistent with the lack of global stationary phase regulatory elements in this organism. deduced from an analysis of its genome sequence. We now show that C. jejuni NCTC 11168 does undergo certain changes in stationary phase, of a pattern not previously described. As cells entered stationary phase there was a change in membrane fatty acid composition, principally a decrease in the proportion of unsaturated fatty acids and an increase in the content of cyclopropane and short-chain fatty acids. These changes in membrane composition were accompanied by an increase in the resilience of the cell membrane towards loss of integrity caused by pressure and an increase in cellular pressure resistance. By contrast. there were no major changes in resistance to acid or heat treatment. A similar pattern of changes in stress resistance on entry, into stationary phase was seen in C. jejuni NCTC 11351, the type strain. These changes appear to represent a restricted Physiological response to the conditions existing in stationary phase cultures, in an organism having limited capacity for genetic regulation and adaptation to environment. © 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

In vitro fermentation of oat bran obtained by debranning with a mixed culture of human fecal bacteria

The prebiotic potential of oat samples was investigated by in vitro shaker-flask anaerobic fermentations with human fecal cultures. The oat bran fraction was obtained by debranning and was compared with other carbon sources such as whole oat flour, glucose, and fructo-oligosaccharide. The oat bran fraction showed a decrease in culturable anaerobes and clostridia and an increase in bifidobacteria and lactobacilli populations. A similar pattern was observed in fructo-oligosaccharide. Butyrate production was higher in oat bran compared to glucose and similar to that in fructo-oligosaccharide. Production of propionate was higher in the two oat media than in fructo-oligosaccharide and glucose, which can be used as energy source by the liver. This study suggests that the oat bran fraction obtained by debranning is digested by the gut ecosystem and increases the population of beneficial bacteria in the indigenous gut microbiota. This medium also provides an energy source preferred by colonocytes when it is metabolized by the gut flora.

Investigating the mechanism of enhanced cytotoxicity of HPMA copolymer-Dox-AGM in breast cancer cells

Recently we have described an HPMA copolymer conjugate carrying both the aromatase inhibitor aminoglutethimide (AGM) and doxorubicin (Dox) as combination therapy. This showed markedly enhanced in vitro cytotoxicity compared to the HPMA copolymer-Dox (FCE28068), a conjugate that demonstrated activity in chemotherapy refractory breast cancer patients during early clinical trials. To better understand the superior activity of HPMA copolymer-Dox-AGM, here experiments were undertaken using MCF-7 and MCF-7ca (aromatase-transfected) breast cancer cell lines to: further probe the synergistic cytotoxic effects of AGM and Dox in free and conjugated form; to compare the endocytic properties of HPMA copolymer-Dox-AGM and HPMA copolymer-Dox (binding, rate and mechanism of cellular uptake); the rate of drug liberation by lysosomal thiol-dependant proteases (i.e. conjugate activation), and also, using immunocytochemistry, to compare their molecular mechanism of action. It was clearly shown that attachment of both drugs to the same polymer backbone was a requirement for enhanced cytotoxicity. FACS studies indicated both conjugates have a similar pattern of cell binding and endocytic uptake (at least partially via a cholesterol-dependent pathway), however, the pattern of enzyme-mediated drug liberation was distinctly different. Dox release from PK1 was linear with time, whereas the release of both Dox and AGM from HPMA copolymer-Dox-AGM was not, and the initial rate of AGM release was much faster than that seen for the anthracycline. Immunocytochemistry showed that both conjugates decreased the expression of ki67. However, this effect was more marked for HPMA copolymer-Dox-AGM and, moreover, only this conjugate decreased the expression of the anti-apoptotic protein bcl-2. In conclusion, the superior in vitro activity of HPMA copolymer-Dox-AGM cannot be attributed to differences in endocytic uptake, and it seems likely that the synergistic effect of Dox and AGM is due to the kinetics of intracellular drug liberation which leads to enhanced activity. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved.

Universality of rain event size distributions

We compare rain event size distributions derived from measurements in climatically different regions, which we find to be well approximated by power laws of similar exponents over broad ranges. Differences can be seen in the large-scale cutoffs of the distributions. Event duration distributions suggest that the scale-free aspects are related to the absence of characteristic scales in the meteorological mesoscale.

Saving the planet but losing the landscape: the impact of renewable energy policies on rural Britain

The main instrument of the Government's renewable energy policy is to promote wind power through regulation and subsidy. This gives rise to anomalies in rural planning when turbines are erected in sensitve areas in which other forms of development are strictly controlled. The situation is reviewed in the context of economic viability and considered also against the alternative of growing fuel crops. The latter are currently hampered by lack of Government support but could fulfil a useful secondary role of sustaining the agricultural sector and with it the management of lowland landscapes.

Particle image velocimetry measurements of turbulent flow within outdoor and indoor urban scale models and flushing motions in urban canopy layers

We investigate the spatial characteristics of urban-like canopy flow by applying particle image velocimetry (PIV) to atmospheric turbulence. The study site was a Comprehensive Outdoor Scale MOdel (COSMO) experiment for urban climate in Japan. The PIV system captured the two-dimensional flow field within the canopy layer continuously for an hour with a sampling frequency of 30 Hz, thereby providing reliable outdoor turbulence statistics. PIV measurements in a wind-tunnel facility using similar roughness geometry, but with a lower sampling frequency of 4 Hz, were also done for comparison. The turbulent momentum flux from COSMO, and the wind tunnel showed similar values and distributions when scaled using friction velocity. Some different characteristics between outdoor and indoor flow fields were mainly caused by the larger fluctuations in wind direction for the atmospheric turbulence. The focus of the analysis is on a variety of instantaneous turbulent flow structures. One remarkable flow structure is termed 'flushing', that is, a large-scale upward motion prevailing across the whole vertical cross-section of a building gap. This is observed intermittently, whereby tracer particles are flushed vertically out from the canopy layer. Flushing phenomena are also observed in the wind tunnel where there is neither thermal stratification nor outer-layer turbulence. It is suggested that flushing phenomena are correlated with the passing of large-scale low-momentum regions above the canopy.