Progress on “Changing coastlines: data assimilation for morphodynamic prediction and predictability”

The task of assessing the likelihood and extent of coastal flooding is hampered by the lack of detailed information on near-shore bathymetry. This is required as an input for coastal inundation models, and in some cases the variability in the bathymetry can impact the prediction of those areas likely to be affected by flooding in a storm. The constant monitoring and data collection that would be required to characterise the near-shore bathymetry over large coastal areas is impractical, leaving the option of running morphodynamic models to predict the likely bathymetry at any given time. However, if the models are inaccurate the errors may be significant if incorrect bathymetry is used to predict possible flood risks. This project is assessing the use of data assimilation techniques to improve the predictions from a simple model, by rigorously incorporating observations of the bathymetry into the model, to bring the model closer to the actual situation. Currently we are concentrating on Morecambe Bay as a primary study site, as it has a highly dynamic inter-tidal zone, with changes in the course of channels in this zone impacting the likely locations of flooding from storms. We are working with SAR images, LiDAR, and swath bathymetry to give us the observations over a 2.5 year period running from May 2003 – November 2005. We have a LiDAR image of the entire inter-tidal zone for November 2005 to use as validation data. We have implemented a 3D-Var data assimilation scheme, to investigate the improvements in performance of the data assimilation compared to the previous scheme which was based on the optimal interpolation method. We are currently evaluating these different data assimilation techniques, using 22 SAR data observations. We will also include the LiDAR data and swath bathymetry to improve the observational coverage, and investigate the impact of different types of observation on the predictive ability of the model. We are also assessing the ability of the data assimilation scheme to recover the correct bathymetry after storm events, which can dramatically change the bathymetry in a short period of time.

Down-regulation of the CSLF6 gene results in decreased (1,3;1,4)-beta-D-glucan in endosperm of wheat

(1,3;1,4)-beta-d-Glucan (beta-glucan) accounts for 20% of the total cell walls in the starchy endosperm of wheat (Triticum aestivum) and is an important source of dietary fiber for human nutrition with potential health benefits. Bioinformatic and array analyses of gene expression profiles in developing caryopses identified the CELLULOSE SYNTHASE-LIKE F6 (CSLF6) gene as encoding a putative beta-glucan synthase. RNA interference constructs were therefore designed to down-regulate CSLF6 gene expression and expressed in transgenic wheat under the control of a starchy endosperm-specific HMW subunit gene promoter. Analysis of wholemeal flours using an enzyme-based kit and by high-performance anion-exchange chromatography after digestion with lichenase showed decreases in total beta-glucan of between 30% and 52% and between 36% and 53%, respectively, in five transgenic lines compared to three control lines. The content of water-extractable beta-glucan was also reduced by about 50% in the transgenic lines, and the M(r) distribution of the fraction was decreased from an average of 79 to 85 x 10(4) g/mol in the controls and 36 to 57 x 10(4) g/mol in the transgenics. Immunolocalization of beta-glucan in semithin sections of mature and developing grains confirmed that the impact of the transgene was confined to the starchy endosperm with little or no effect on the aleurone or outer layers of the grain. The results confirm that the CSLF6 gene of wheat encodes a beta-glucan synthase and indicate that transgenic manipulation can be used to enhance the health benefits of wheat products.

The visibility of agricultural subsidies and market illusions in the Common Agricultural Policy: Some evidence from farmers' views in Germany, Portugal and the United Kingdom

This article demonstrates that the design and nature of agricultural support schemes has an influence on farmers' perception of their level of dependence on agricultural support. While direct aid payments inform farmers about the extent to which they are subsidised, indirect support mechanisms veil the level of subsidisation, and therefore they are not fully aware of the extent to which they are supported. To test this hypothesis, we applied data from a survey of 4,500 farmers in three countries: the United Kingdom, Germany and Portugal. It is demonstrated that indirect support, such as that provided through artificially high consumer prices, gives an illusion of free and competitive markets among farmers. This 'visibility' hypothesis is evaluated against an alternative hypothesis that assumes farmers have complete, or at least a fairly comprehensive level of, information on agricultural support schemes. Our findings show that this alternative hypothesis can be ruled out.

Survival and vigour of ultra-dry seeds after ten years of hermetic storage

Seeds of carrot, groundnut, lettuce, oilseed rape and onion were stored hermetically in laminated aluminium foil packets in four environments (dry or ultra-dry moisture contents combined factorially with temperatures of 20 degrees C or -20 degrees C), replicated at several sites. After ten years' hermetic storage, seed moisture content, equilibrium relative humidity, viability (assessed by ability to germinate normally in standard germination tests) and vigour were determined. After a decade, the change in seed moisture content of samples stored at -20 degrees C was small or nil. Except for groundnut and lettuce (where loss in viability was about 8 and 3%, respectively), no loss in viability was detected after 10 years' hermetic storage at -20 degrees C. In all cases, there was no difference in seed survival between moisture contents at this temperature (P > 0.25). Comparison of seed vigour (root length and rate of germination) also confirmed that drying to moisture contents in equilibrium with 10-12% r.h. had no detrimental effect to longevity when stored at -20 degrees C: the only significant (P < 0.05) differences detected were slightly greater root lengths for ultra-dry storage of four of the six seed lots. Seed moisture content had increased after a decade at 20 degrees C (generally to the level in equilibrium with ambient relative humidity). Hence, sub-zero temperature storage helped maintain the long-term integrity of the laminated aluminium foil packets, as well as that of the seeds within.

Pollination and other ecosystem services produced by mobile organisms: a conceptual framework for the effects of land-use change

Many ecosystem services are delivered by organisms that depend on habitats that are segregated spatially or temporally from the location where services are provided. Management of mobile organisms contributing to ecosystem services requires consideration not only of the local scale where services are delivered, but also the distribution of resources at the landscape scale, and the foraging ranges and dispersal movements of the mobile agents. We develop a conceptual model for exploring how one such mobile-agent-based ecosystem service (MABES), pollination, is affected by land-use change, and then generalize the model to other MABES. The model includes interactions and feedbacks among policies affecting land use, market forces and the biology of the organisms involved. Animal-mediated pollination contributes to the production of goods of value to humans such as crops; it also bolsters reproduction of wild plants on which other services or service-providing organisms depend. About one-third of crop production depends on animal pollinators, while 60-90% of plant species require an animal pollinator. The sensitivity of mobile organisms to ecological factors that operate across spatial scales makes the services provided by a given community of mobile agents highly contextual. Services vary, depending on the spatial and temporal distribution of resources surrounding the site, and on biotic interactions occurring locally, such as competition among pollinators for resources, and among plants for pollinators. The value of the resulting goods or services may feed back via market-based forces to influence land-use policies, which in turn influence land management practices that alter local habitat conditions and landscape structure. Developing conceptual models for MABES aids in identifying knowledge gaps, determining research priorities, and targeting interventions that can be applied in an adaptive management context.

Effect of type and timing of oil supplements to sows during pregnancy on the growth performance and endocrine profile of low and normal birth weight offspring

Eighty-eight multiparous sows were used to evaluate whether type and timing of oil supplementation during gestation influences the incidence of low birth weight (LBW). Sows were allocated (eight per treatment) commercial sow pellets (3 kg/d; control diet) or an experimental diet consisting of control diet plus 10 % extra energy in the form of excess pellets, palm oil, olive oil (OO), sunflower oil (SO) or fish oil; experimental diets were fed during either the first half (G1) or second half (G2) of gestation. Growth performance and endocrine profile of LBW ( < 1·09 kg) and normal birth weight (NBW; 1·46–1·64 kg) offspring were compared. Maternal dietary supplementation altered the distribution curve for piglet birth weight. SOG1 sows had a greater proportion of LBW piglets (P < 0·05), whilst it was reduced in the OOG1 group (P < 0·05). Growth rate of LBW piglets was lower compared with their NBW siblings (P < 0·05) when dietary supplementation was offered in G2 but were similar for G1. At birth, LBW offspring of supplemented animals possessed more fat compared with the control group (P < 0·05); LBW offspring of control animals exhibited a more rapid decline in fat free mass/kg prior to weaning. Plasma metabolites and insulin concentrations were influenced by maternal diet and birth weight. In conclusion, maternal dietary supplementation altered the distribution of piglet birth weights and improved the energy status of LBW piglets. Supplementation with MUFA during G1 reduced the incidence of LBW, whereas PUFA had the reverse effect.

Implications for food production, land use and rural development of the European Union's Single Farm Payment: Indications from a survey of farmers' intentions in Germany, Portugal and the UK

The 2003 reform of the European Union's (EU) Common Agricultural Policy introduced a decoupled income support for farmers called the Single Farm Payment (SFP). Concerns were raised about possible future land use and production changes and their impact on rural communities. Here, such concerns are considered against the workings of the SFP in three EU Member States. Various quantitative studies that have determined the likely impact of the SFP within the EU and the study countries are reviewed. We present the results of a farm survey conducted in the study countries in which farmers' responses to a decoupling scenario similar to the SFP were sought. We found that little short-term change was proposed in the three, rather different, study countries with only 30% of the farmers stating that they would alter their mix of farm activities. Furthermore, less than 30% of all respondents in each country would idle any land under decoupling. Of those who would adopt a new activity, the most popular choices were forestry, woodland and non-food crops. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Overview of mathematical approaches used to model bacterial chemotaxis II: bacterial populations

We review the application of mathematical modeling to understanding the behavior of populations of chemotactic bacteria. The application of continuum mathematical models, in particular generalized Keller-Segel models, is discussed along with attempts to incorporate the microscale (individual) behavior on the macroscale, modeling the interaction between different species of bacteria, the interaction of bacteria with their environment, and methods used to obtain experimentally verified parameter values. We allude briefly to the role of modeling pattern formation in understanding collective behavior within bacterial populations. Various aspects of each model are discussed and areas for possible future research are postulated.