Bayesian estimation of willingness-to-pay where respondents mis-report their preferences

We introduce a modified conditional logit model that takes account of uncertainty associated with mis-reporting in revealed preference experiments estimating willingness-to-pay (WTP). Like Hausman et al. [Journal of Econometrics (1988) Vol. 87, pp. 239-269], our model captures the extent and direction of uncertainty by respondents. Using a Bayesian methodology, we apply our model to a choice modelling (CM) data set examining UK consumer preferences for non-pesticide food. We compare the results of our model with the Hausman model. WTP estimates are produced for different groups of consumers and we find that modified estimates of WTP, that take account of mis-reporting, are substantially revised downwards. We find a significant proportion of respondents mis-reporting in favour of the non-pesticide option. Finally, with this data set, Bayes factors suggest that our model is preferred to the Hausman model.

Modifying willingness to pay estimates where respondents mis-report their preferences

The likelihood for the Logit model is modified, so as to take account of uncertainty associated with mis-reporting in stated preference experiments estimating willingness to pay (WTP). Monte Carlo results demonstrate the bias imparted to estimates where there is mis-reporting. The approach is applied to a data set examining consumer preferences for food produced employing a nonpesticide technology. Our modified approach leads to WTP that are substantially downwardly revised.

Dichotomous-choice contingent valuation with 'don't know' responses and misreporting

A new approach is presented that simultaneously deals with Misreporting and Don't Know (DK) responses within a dichotomous-choice contingent valuation framework. Utilising a modification of the standard Bayesian Probit framework, a Gibbs with Metropolis-Hastings algorithm is used to estimate the posterior densities for the parameters of interest. Several model specifications are applied to two contingent valuation datasets: one on wolf management plans, and one on the US Fee Demonstration Program. We find that DKs are more likely to be from people who would be predicted to have positive utility for the bid. Therefore, a DK is more likely to be a YES than a NO. We also find evidence of misreporting, primarily in favour of the NO option. The inclusion of DK responses has an unpredictable impact on willingness-to-pay estimates, since it impacts differently on the results for the two datasets we examine. Copyright (C) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Consumer willingness to pay for in-flight service and comfort levels: A choice experiment

In the competitive aviation market as a result of the emergence of low cost carriers, charter airlines have had to reconsider their approach to service provision. Specifically, the reduction in service and comfort levels offered by the low cost airlines provides charter carriers with an opportunity to differentiate their product based on the quality of the offering. To consider this strategic option we employ an on-line choice experiment to examine consumer choices with respect to the bundle of services on offer when deciding to purchase a flight, With these data we use the Bayesian methods to estimate a mixed logit specification. Our results reveal that in principle passengers are willing to pay a relatively large amount for enhanced service quality. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Consumer attitudes towards and willingness to pay for pesticide residue limit compliant 'safe' vegetables in Northeast Thailand

Pesticide residue in vegetables is a major food safety issue in Thailand. A range of vegetable products (organic/pesticide-free/ hydroponic) has emerged in Thai markets that guarantee compliance with maximum residue limits. The Government of Thailand is eager to extend the benefits of this suite of alternative vegetables to the entire population, particularly the semi-urban/rural segments that are often bypassed by such speciality products. However, little information is available to guide such an effort, particularly with regard to up-country consumer attitudes, shopping and consumption habits and willingness to pay premiums for such produce. This research aims to fill this gap in knowledge. It reports the results of a survey of vegetable consumption and shopping habits and attitudes of 608 consumers in northeast Thailand. Willingness to pay premiums for pesticide residue limit compliant vegetables is also assessed by using a contingent valuation method, and determinants of willingness to pay are examined using an ordered probit empirical model. Results indicate that, given adequate awareness of relative risks, even up-country consumers are willing to pay market premium levels for these products, and that inadequate availability, rather than lack of demand is the constraining factor. Willingness to pay is found to increase with income, age and supermarket sourcing of vegetables. We also discuss the challenge of improving availability at mainstream outlets.

Consumers' willingness-to-pay for organic conversion-grade food: Evidence from five EU countries

In recent years, in overall value, the EU has become a net importer of organic food to supply increasing demand. Financial support for farmers during the conversion period has been made to help expand organic production as this was seen as a barrier to conversion. Meanwhile, farmers have been marketing products produced in this conversion period and labelled as such, the extent to which is described here for the UK, Portugal, Denmark, Ireland and Italy. Consumers' attitudes towards, and willingness-to-pay for, conversion-grade food in these countries is examined. It was found that consumers would be prepared to pay a premium for conversion-grade produce of around half the premium for organic produce with vegetables attracting a higher premium than meat. Finally, the potential of policies for marketing conversion-grade products to encourage more conversion is examined, together with barriers to achieving this. It is concluded that barriers to marketing such products, particularly from retailers, will be formidable. Thus, alternative policies are suggested. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Some new three-level orthogonal main effects plans robust to model uncertainty

In this paper, we list some new orthogonal main effects plans for three-level designs for 4, 5 and 6 factors in IS runs and compare them with designs obtained from the existing L-18 orthogonal array. We show that these new designs have better projection properties and can provide better parameter estimates for a range of possible models. Additionally, we study designs in other smaller run-sizes when there are insufficient resources to perform an 18-run experiment. Plans for three-level designs for 4, 5 and 6 factors in 13 to 17 runs axe given. We show that the best designs here are efficient and deserve strong consideration in many practical situations.

Designs for an adaptive tuned vibration absorber with variable shape stiffness element

An adaptive tuned vibration absorber (ATVA) with a smart variable stiffness element is capable of retuning itself in response to a time-varying excitation frequency., enabling effective vibration control over a range of frequencies. This paper discusses novel methods of achieving variable stiffness in an ATVA by changing shape, as inspired by biological paradigms. It is shown that considerable variation in the tuned frequency can be achieved by actuating a shape change, provided that this is within the limits of the actuator. A feasible design for such an ATVA is one in which the device offers low resistance to the required shape change actuation while not being restricted to low values of the effective stiffness of the vibration absorber. Three such original designs are identified: (i) A pinned-pinned arch beam with fixed profile of slight curvature and variable preload through an adjustable natural curvature; (ii) a vibration absorber with a stiffness element formed from parallel curved beams of adjustable curvature vibrating longitudinally; (iii) a vibration absorber with a variable geometry linkage as stiffness element. The experimental results from demonstrators based on two of these designs show good correlation with the theory.

Can adapting the homes of older people and providing assistive technology pay its way?

Background: Adaptations and assistive technology (AT) have an important role in enabling older people to remain in their own homes. Objective: To measure the feasibility and cost of adaptations and AT, and the scope for these to substitute and supplement formal care. Design: Detailed design studies to benchmark the adaptability of 82 properties against the needs of seven notional users. Setting: Social rented housing sector. Main outcome measures: Measures of the adaptability of properties, costs of care, adaptations and AT, and relationships between these costs. Results: The adaptability of properties varies according to many design factors and the needs of occupiers. The most adaptable properties were ground floor flats and bungalows; the least were houses, maisonettes and flats in converted houses. Purpose-built sheltered properties were generally more adaptable than corresponding mainstream properties but the opposite was the case for bungalows. Adaptations and AT can substitute for and supplement formal care, and in most cases the initial investment in adaptations and AT is recouped through subsequently lower care costs within the average life expectancy of a user. Conclusion: Appropriately selected adaptations and AT can make a significant contribution to the provision of living environments which facilitate independence. They can both substitute for traditional formal care services and supplement these services in a cost-effective way.

Fecal microbiota in patients receiving enteral feeding are highly variable and may be altered in those who develop diarrhea

Background: The pathogenesis of diarrhea in patients receiving enteral feeding includes colonic water secretion, antibiotic prescription, and enteropathogenic colonization, each of which involves an interaction with the gastrointestinal microbiota. Objective: The objective was to investigate temporal changes in the concentrations of fecal microbiota and short-chain fatty acids (SCFAs) in patients starting 14-d of enteral feeding and to compare these changes between patients who do and do not develop diarrhea. Design: Twenty patients starting exclusive nasogastric enteral feeding were monitored for 14 d. Fecal samples were collected at the start, middle, and end of this period and were analyzed for major bacterial groups by using culture independent fluorescence in situ hybridization and for SCFAs by using gas-liquid chromatography. Results: Although no significant changes in fecal microbiota or SCFAs were observed during enteral feeding, stark alterations occurred within individual patients. Ten patients (50%) developed diarrhea, and these patients had significantly higher concentrations of clostridia (P = 0.026) and lower concentrations (P = 0.069) and proportions (P = 0.029) of bifidobacteria. Patients with and without diarrhea had differences in the proportion of bifidobacteria (median: 0.4% and 3.7%; interquartile range: 0.8 compared with 4.3; P = 0.035) and clostridia (median: 10.4% and 3.7%; interquartile range: 14.7 compared with 7.0; P = 0.063), respectively, even at the start of enteral feeding. Patients who developed diarrhea had higher concentrations of total fecal SCFAs (P = 0.044), acetate (P = 0.029), and butyrate (P = 0.055). Conclusion: Intestinal dysbiosis occurs in patients who develop diarrhea during enteral feeding and may be involved in its pathogenesis. Am J Clin Nutr 2009; 89: 240-7.

Variable step LMS algorithm using the accumulated instantaneous error concept

The convergence speed of the standard Least Mean Square adaptive array may be degraded in mobile communication environments. Different conventional variable step size LMS algorithms were proposed to enhance the convergence speed while maintaining low steady state error. In this paper, a new variable step LMS algorithm, using the accumulated instantaneous error concept is proposed. In the proposed algorithm, the accumulated instantaneous error is used to update the step size parameter of standard LMS is varied. Simulation results show that the proposed algorithm is simpler and yields better performance than conventional variable step LMS.

Synapsing variable length crossover: Biologically inspired crossover for variable length genomes

Biological Crossover occurs during the early stages of meiosis. During this process the chromosomes undergoing crossover are synapsed together at a number of homogenous sequence sections, it is within such synapsed sections that crossover occurs. The SVLC (Synapsing Variable Length Crossover) Algorithm recurrently synapses homogenous genetic sequences together in order of length. The genomes are considered to be flexible with crossover only being permitted within the synapsed sections. Consequently, common sequences are automatically preserved with only the genetic differences being exchanged, independent of the length of such differences. In addition to providing a rationale for variable length crossover it also provides a genotypic similarity metric for variable length genomes enabling standard niche formation techniques to be utilised. In a simple variable length test problem the SVLC algorithm outperforms current variable length crossover techniques.