Sociality and external validity in experimental economics

It is sometimes argued that experimental economists do not have to worry about external validity so long as the design sticks closely to a theoretical model. This position mistakes the model for the theory. As a result, applied economics designs often study phenomena distinct from their stated objects of inquiry. Because the implemented models are abstract, they may provide improbable analogues to their stated subject matter. This problem is exacerbated by the relational character of the social world, which also sets epistemic limits for the social science laboratory more generally.

Assessment of projected changes in upland environments using simple climatic indices

Climate controls upland habitats, soils and their associated ecosystem services; therefore, understanding possible changes in upland climatic conditions can provide a rapid assessment of climatic vulnerability over the next century. We used 3 different climatic indices that were optimised to fit the upland area classified by the EU as a Severely Disadvantaged Area (SDA) 1961–1990. Upland areas within the SDA covered all altitudinal ranges, whereas the maximum altitude of lowland areas outside of the SDA was ca. 300 m. In general, the climatic index based on the ratio between annual accumulated temperature (as a measure of growing season length) and annual precipitation predicted 96% of the SDA mapped area, which was slightly better than those indices based on annual or seasonal water deficit. Overall, all climatic indices showed that upland environments were exposed to some degree of change by 2071–2100 under UKCIP02 climate projections for high and low emissions scenarios. The projected area declined by 13 to 51% across 3 indices for the low emissions scenario and by 24 to 84% for the high emissions scenario. Mean altitude of the upland area increased by +11 to +86 m for the low scenario and +21 to +178 m for the high scenario. Low altitude areas in eastern and southern Great Britain were most vulnerable to change. These projected climatic changes are likely to affect upland habitat composition, long-term soil carbon storage and wider ecosystem service provision, although it is not yet possible to determine the rate at which this might occur.

On-line prediction of cheese making using backscatter of near infrared indices light

The potential of a fibre optic sensor, detecting light backscatter in a cheese vat during coagulation and syneresis, to predict curd moisture, fat loses and curd yield was examined. Temperature, cutting time and calcium levels were varied to assess the strength of the predictions over a range of processing conditions. Equations were developed using a combination of independent variables, milk compositional and light backscatter parameters. Fat losses, curd yield and curd moisture content were predicted with a standard error of prediction (SEP) of +/- 2.65 g 100 g(-1) (R-2 = 0.93), +/- 0.95% (R-2 = 0.90) and +/- 1.43% (R-2 = 0.94), respectively. These results were used to develop a model for predicting curd moisture as a function of time during syneresis (SEP = +/- 1.72%; R-2 = 0.95). By monitoring coagulation and syneresis, this sensor technology could be employed to control curd moisture content, thereby improving process control during cheese manufacture. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved..

Influence of curd cutting programme and stirring speed on the prediction of syneresis indices in cheese-making using NIR light backscatter

An NIR reflectance sensor, with a large field of view and a fibre-optic connection to a spectrometer for measuring light backscatter at 980 nm, was used to monitor the syneresis process online during cheese-making with the goal of predicting syneresis indices (curd moisture content, yield of whey and fat losses to whey) over a range of curd cutting programmes and stirring speeds. A series of trials were carried out in an 11 L cheese vat using recombined whole milk. A factorial experimental design consisting of three curd stirring speeds and three cutting programmes, was undertaken. Milk was coagulated under constant conditions and the casein gel was cut when the elastic modulus reached 35 Pa. Among the syneresis indices investigated, the most accurate and most parsimonious multivariate model developed was for predicting yield of whey involving three terms, namely light backscatter, milk fat content and cutting intensity (R2 = 0.83, SEy = 6.13 g/100 g), while the best simple model also predicted this syneresis index using the light backscatter alone (R2 = 0.80, SEy = 6.53 g/100 g). In this model the main predictor was the light backscatter response from the NIR light back scatter sensor. The sensor also predicted curd moisture with a similar accuracy.

Antioxidant enzymes, inflammatory indices and lifestyle factors in older men: a cohort analysis

We examined the relationship between blood antioxidant enzyme activities, indices of inflammatory status and a number of lifestyle factors in the Caerphilly prospective cohort study of ischaemic heart disease. The study began in 1979 and is based on a representative male population sample. Initially 2512 men were seen in phase I, and followed-up every 5 years in phases II and III; they have recently been seen in phase IV. Data on social class, smoking habit, alcohol consumption were obtained by questionnaire, and body mass index was measured. Antioxidant enzyme activities and indices of inflammatory status were estimated by standard techniques. Significant associations were observed for: age with α-1-antichymotrypsin (p<0.0001) and with caeruloplasmin, both protein and oxidase (p<0.0001); smoking habit with α-1-antichymotrypsin (p<0.0001), with caeruloplasmin, both protein and oxidase (p<0.0001) and with glutathione peroxidose (GPX) (p<0.0001); social class with α-1-antichymotrypsin (p<0.0001), with caeruloplasmin both protein (p<0.001) and oxidase (p<0.01) and with GPX (p<0.0001); body mass index with α-1-antichymotrypsin (p<0.0001) and with caeruloplasmin protein (p<0.001). There was no significant association between alcohol consumption and any of the blood enzymes measured. Factor analysis produced a three-factor model (explaining 65.9% of the variation in the data set) which appeared to indicate close inter-relationships among antioxidants.

An objective, niche-based approach to indicator species selection

1. Species-based indices are frequently employed as surrogates for wider biodiversity health and measures of environmental condition. Species selection is crucial in determining an indicators metric value and hence the validity of the interpretation of ecosystem condition and function it provides, yet an objective process to identify appropriate indicator species is frequently lacking. 2. An effective indicator needs to (i) be representative, reflecting the status of wider biodiversity; (ii) be reactive, acting as early-warning systems for detrimental changes in environmental conditions; (iii) respond to change in a predictable way. We present an objective, niche-based approach for species' selection, founded on a coarse categorisation of species' niche space and key resource requirements, which ensures the resultant indicator has these key attributes. 3. We use UK farmland birds as a case study to demonstrate this approach, identifying an optimal indicator set containing 12 species. In contrast to the 19 species included in the farmland bird index (FBI), a key UK biodiversity indicator that contributes to one of the UK Government's headline indicators of sustainability, the niche space occupied by these species fully encompasses that occupied by the wider community of 62 species. 4. We demonstrate that the response of these 12 species to land-use change is a strong correlate to that of the wider farmland bird community. Furthermore, the temporal dynamics of the index based on their population trends closely matches the population dynamics of the wider community. However, in both analyses, the magnitude of the change in our indicator was significantly greater, allowing this indicator to act as an early-warning system. 5. Ecological indicators are embedded in environmental management, sustainable development and biodiversity conservation policy and practice where they act as metrics against which progress towards national, regional and global targets can be measured. Adopting this niche-based approach for objective selection of indicator species will facilitate the development of sensitive and representative indices for a range of taxonomic groups, habitats and spatial scales.

Measuring lexical diversity among L2 learners of French: an exploration of the validity of D, MTLD and HD-D as measures of language ability

In this study two new measures of lexical diversity are tested for the first time on French. The usefulness of these measures, MTLD (McCarthy and Jarvis (2010 and this volume) ) and HD-D (McCarthy and Jarvis 2007), in predicting different aspects of language proficiency is assessed and compared with D (Malvern and Richards 1997; Malvern, Richards, Chipere and Durán 2004) and Maas (1972) in analyses of stories told by two groups of learners (n=41) of two different proficiency levels and one group of native speakers of French (n=23). The importance of careful lemmatization in studies of lexical diversity which involve highly inflected languages is also demonstrated. The paper shows that the measures of lexical diversity under study are valid proxies for language ability in that they explain up to 62 percent of the variance in French C-test scores, and up to 33 percent of the variance in a measure of complexity. The paper also provides evidence that dependence on segment size continues to be a problem for the measures of lexical diversity discussed in this paper. The paper concludes that limiting the range of text lengths or even keeping text length constant is the safest option in analysing lexical diversity.

Transaction based indices for the UK commercial real estate market: an exploration using IPD transaction data

The nature of private commercial real estate markets presents difficulties for monitoring market performance. Assets are heterogeneous and spatially dispersed, trading is infrequent and there is no central marketplace in which prices and cash flows of properties can be easily observed. Appraisal based indices represent one response to these issues. However, these have been criticised on a number of grounds: that they may understate volatility, lag turning points and be affected by client influence issues. Thus, this paper reports econometrically derived transaction based indices of the UK commercial real estate market using Investment Property Databank (IPD) data, comparing them with published appraisal based indices. The method is similar to that presented by Fisher, Geltner, and Pollakowski (2007) and used by Massachusett, Institute of Technology (MIT) on National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries (NCREIF) data, although it employs value rather than equal weighting. The results show stronger growth from the transaction based indices in the run up to the peak in the UK market in 2007. They also show that returns from these series are more volatile and less autocorrelated than their appraisal based counterparts, but, surprisingly, differences in turning points were not found. The conclusion then debates the applications and limitations these series have as measures of market performance.

The performance effects of composition changes on sector specific stock indices: The case of European listed real estate

This paper examines the impact of changes in the composition of real estate stock indices, considering companies both joining and leaving the indices. Stocks that are newly included not only see a short-term increase in their share price, but trading volumes increase in a permanent fashion following the event. This highlights the importance of indices in not only a benchmarking context but also in enhancing investor awareness and aiding liquidity. By contrast, as anticipated, the share prices of firms removed from indices fall around the time of the index change. The fact that the changes in share prices, either upwards for index inclusions or downwards for deletions, are generally not reversed, would indicate that the movements are not purely due to price pressure, but rather are more consistent with the information content hypothesis. There is no evidence, however, that index changes significantly affect the volatility of price changes or their operating performances as measured by their earnings per share.

Parameterising ecological validity and integrating individual differences within second-person neuroscience

This commentary situates the second person account within a broader framework of ecological validity for experimental paradigms in social cognitive neuroscience. It then considers how individual differences at psychological and genetic levels can be integrated within the proposed framework.