Intrinsic and rational speculative bubbles in the U.S. housing market 1960-2011

This paper examines the dynamics of the residential property market in the United States between 1960 and 2011. Given the cyclically and apparent overvaluation of the market over this period, we determine whether deviations of real estate prices from their fundamentals were caused by the existence of two genres of bubbles: intrinsic bubbles and rational speculative bubbles. We find evidence of an intrinsic bubble in the market pre-2000, implying that overreaction to changes in rents contributed to the overvaluation of real estate prices. However, using a regime-switching model, we find evidence of periodically collapsing rational bubbles in the post-2000 market

Legal outlier, again? U.S. felon suffrage: comparative and international human rights perspectives

The judiciousness of American felon suffrage policies has long been the subject of scholarly debate, not least due to the large number of affected Americans: an estimated 5.3 million citizens are ineligible to vote as a result of a criminal conviction. This article offers comparative law and international human rights perspectives and aims to make two main contributions to the American and global discourse. After an introduction in Part I, Part II offers comparative law perspectives on challenges to disenfranchisement legislation, juxtaposing U.S. case law against recent judgments rendered by courts in Canada, South Africa, Australia, and by the European Court of Human Rights. The article submits that owing to its unique constitutional stipulations, as well as to a general reluctance to engage foreign legal sources, U.S. jurisprudence lags behind an emerging global jurisprudential trend that increasingly views convicts’ disenfranchisement as a suspect practice and subjects it to judicial review. This transnational judicial discourse follows a democratic paradigm and adopts a “residual liberty” approach to criminal justice that considers convicts to be rights-holders. The discourse rejects regulatory justifications for convicts’ disenfranchisement, and instead sees disenfranchisement as a penal measure. In order to determine its suitability as a punishment, the adverse effects of disenfranchisement are weighed against its purported social benefits, using balancing or proportionality review. Part III analyzes the international human rights treaty regime. It assesses, in particular, Article 25 of the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (“ICCPR”), which proclaims that “every citizen” has a right to vote without “unreasonable restrictions.” The analysis concludes that the phrase “unreasonable restrictions” is generally interpreted in a manner which tolerates certain forms of disenfranchisement, whereas other forms (such as life disenfranchisement) may be incompatible with treaty obligations. This article submits that disenfranchisement is a normatively flawed punishment. It fails to treat convicts as politically-equal community members, degrades them, and causes them grave harms both as individuals and as members of social groups. These adverse effects outweigh the purported social benefits of disenfranchisement. Furthermore, as a core component of the right to vote, voter eligibility should cease to be subjected to balancing or proportionality review. The presumed facilitative nature of the right to vote makes suffrage less susceptible to deference-based objections regarding the judicial review of legislation, as well as to cultural relativity objections to further the international standardization of human rights obligations. In view of this, this article proposes the adoption of a new optional protocol to the ICCPR proscribing convicts’ disenfranchisement. The article draws analogies between the proposed protocol and the ICCPR’s “Optional Protocol Aiming at the Abolition of the Death Penalty.” If adopted, the proposed protocol would strengthen the current trajectory towards expanding convicts’ suffrage that emanates from the invigorated transnational judicial discourse.

The prediction of nutrients into estuaries and their subsequent behaviour: application to the Tamar and comparison with the Tweed, U.K.

Some of the techniques used to model nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) discharges from a terrestrial catchment to an estuary are discussed and applied to the River Tamar and Tamar Estuary system in Southwest England, U.K. Data are presented for dissolved inorganic nutrient concentrations in the Tamar Estuary and compared with those from the contrasting, low turbidity and rapidly flushed Tweed Estuary in Northeast England. In the Tamar catchment, simulations showed that effluent nitrate loads for typical freshwater flows contributed less than 1% of the total N load. The effect of effluent inputs on ammonium loads was more significant (∼10%). Cattle, sheep and permanent grassland dominated the N catchment export, with diffuse-source N export greatly dominating that due to point sources. Cattle, sheep, permanent grassland and cereal crops generated the greatest rates of diffuse-source P export. This reflected the higher rates of P fertiliser applications to arable land and the susceptibility of bare, arable land to P export in wetter winter months. N and P export to the Tamar Estuary from human sewage was insignificant. Non-conservative behaviour of phosphate was particularly marked in the Tamar Estuary. Silicate concentrations were slightly less than conservative levels, whereas nitrate was essentially conservative. The coastal sea acted as a sink for these terrestrially derived nutrients. A pronounced sag in dissolved oxygen that was associated with strong nitrite and ammonium peaks occurred in the turbidity maximum region of the Tamar Estuary. Nutrient behaviour within the Tweed was very different. The low turbidity and rapid flushing ensured that nutrients there were essentially conservative, so that flushing of nutrients to the coastal zone from the river occurred with little estuarine modification.

Sharing power? Prospects for a U.S. concert-balance strategy

The Pax Americana and the grand strategy of hegemony (or “Primacy”) that underpins it may be becoming unsustainable. Particularly in the wake of exhausting wars, the Global Financial Crisis, and the shift of wealth from West to East, it may no longer be possible or prudent for the United States to act as the unipolar sheriff or guardian of a world order. But how viable are the alternatives, and what difficulties will these alternatives entail in their design and execution? This analysis offers a sympathetic but critical analysis of alternative U.S. National Security Strategies of “retrenchment” that critics of American diplomacy offer. In these strategies, the United States would anticipate the coming of a more multipolar world and organize its behavior around the dual principles of “concert” and “balance,” seeking a collaborative relationship with other great powers, while being prepared to counterbalance any hostile aggressor that threatens world order. The proponents of such strategies argue that by scaling back its global military presence and its commitments, the United States can trade prestige for security, shift burdens, and attain a more free hand. To support this theory, they often look to the 19th-century concert of Europe as a model of a successful security regime and to general theories about the natural balancing behavior of states. This monograph examines this precedent and measures its usefulness for contemporary statecraft to identify how great power concerts are sustained and how they break down. The project also applies competing theories to how states might behave if world politics are in transition: Will they balance, bandwagon, or hedge? This demonstrates the multiple possible futures that could shape and be shaped by a new strategy. viii A new strategy based on an acceptance of multipolarity and the limits of power is prudent. There is scope for such a shift. The convergence of several trends—including transnational problems needing collaborative efforts, the military advantages of defenders, the reluctance of states to engage in unbridled competition, and hegemony fatigue among the American people—means that an opportunity exists internationally and at home for a shift to a new strategy. But a Concert-Balance strategy will still need to deal with several potential dilemmas. These include the difficulty of reconciling competitive balancing with cooperative concerts, the limits of balancing without a forward-reaching onshore military capability, possible unanticipated consequences such as a rise in regional power competition or the emergence of blocs (such as a Chinese East Asia or an Iranian Gulf), and the challenge of sustaining domestic political support for a strategy that voluntarily abdicates world leadership. These difficulties can be mitigated, but they must be met with pragmatic and gradual implementation as well as elegant theorizing and the need to avoid swapping one ironclad, doctrinaire grand strategy for another.

Electronic charge transfer between ceria surfaces and gold adatoms: a GGA+U investigation

We use density functional theory calculations with Hubbard corrections (DFT+U) to investigate electronic aspects of the interaction between ceria surfaces and gold atoms. Our results show that Au adatoms at the (111) surface of ceria can adopt Au0, Au+ or Au� electronic configurations depending on the adsorption site. The strongest adsorption sites are on top of the surface oxygen and in a bridge position between two surface oxygen atoms, and in both cases charge transfer from the gold atom to one of the Ce cations at the surface is involved. Adsorption at other sites, including the hollow sites of the surface, and an O–Ce bridging site, is weaker and does not involve charge transfer. Adsorption at an oxygen vacancy site is very strong and involves the formation of an Au� anion. We argue that the ability of gold atoms to stabilise oxygen vacancies at the ceria surface by moving into the vacancy site and attracting the excess electrons of the defect could be responsible for the enhanced reducibility of ceria surfaces in the presence of gold. Finally, we rationalise the differences in charge transfer behaviour from site to site in terms of the electrostatic potential at the surface and the coordination of the species.

Does political proximity to the U.S. cause terror?

We analyze the impact of political proximity to the United States on the occurrence and severity of terror. Employing panel data for 116 countries over the period 1975–2001 we find that countries voting in line with the U.S. are victims of more and deadlier attacks.

Extensive and intensive globalizations: explicating the low connectivity puzzle of U.S. cities using a city-dyad analysis

This article reports an experiment in world city network analysis focusing on city-dyads. Results are derived from an unusual principal components analysis of 27,966 city-dyads across 5 advanced producer service sectors. A 2-component solution is found that identifies different forms of globalization: extensive and intensive. The latter is characterized by very high component scores and describes the more important city-dyads focused upon London-New York (NYLON). The extensive globalization component heavily features London and New York but with each linked to less important cities. U.S. cities score relatively high on the intensive globalization component and we use this finding to explain the low connectivities of U.S. cities in previous studies of the world city network. The two components are tentatively interpreted in world-systems terms: intensive globalization is the process of core-making through city-dyads; extensive globalization is the process of linking core with non-core through city-dyads.

Forecast uncertainty—ex Ante and ex Post: U.S. inflation and output growth

Survey respondents who make point predictions and histogram forecasts of macro-variables reveal both how uncertain they believe the future to be, ex ante, as well as their ex post performance. Macroeconomic forecasters tend to be overconfident at horizons of a year or more, but overestimate (i.e., are underconfident regarding) the uncertainty surrounding their predictions at short horizons. Ex ante uncertainty remains at a high level compared to the ex post measure as the forecast horizon shortens. There is little evidence of a link between individuals’ ex post forecast accuracy and their ex ante subjective assessments.