‘Nudging’ energy users: regulatory measures to address the risk of aggregate peak demand in European electricity markets

For decades regulators in the energy sector have focused on facilitating the maximisation of energy supply in order to meet demand through liberalisation and removal of market barriers. The debate on climate change has emphasised a new type of risk in the balance between energy demand and supply: excessively high energy demand brings about significantly negative environmental and economic impacts. This is because if a vast number of users is consuming electricity at the same time, energy suppliers have to activate dirty old power plants with higher greenhouse gas emissions and higher system costs. The creation of a Europe-wide electricity market requires a systematic investigation into the risk of aggregate peak demand. This paper draws on the e-Living Time-Use Survey database to assess the risk of aggregate peak residential electricity demand for European energy markets. Findings highlight in which countries and for what activities the risk of aggregate peak demand is greater. The discussion highlights which approaches energy regulators have started considering to convince users about the risks of consuming too much energy during peak times. These include ‘nudging’ approaches such as the roll-out of smart meters, incentives for shifting the timing of energy consumption, differentiated time-of-use tariffs, regulatory financial incentives and consumption data sharing at the community level.

Brain activity in advantageous and disadvantageous situations: implications for reward/punishment sensitivity in different situations

OBJECTIVE: This study modeled win and lose trials in a simple gambling task to examine the effect of entire win-lose situations (WIN, LOSS, or TIE) on single win/lose trials and related neural underpinnings. METHODS: The behavior responses and brain activities of 17 participants were recorded by an MRI scanner while they performed a gambling task. Different conditions were compared to determine the effect of the task on the behavior and brain activity of the participants. Correlations between brain activity and behavior were calculated to support the imaging results. RESULTS: In win trials, LOSS caused less intense posterior cingulate activity than TIE. In lose trials, LOSS caused more intense activity in the right superior temporal gyrus, bilateral superior frontal gyrus, bilateral anterior cingulate, bilateral insula cortex, and left orbitofrontal cortex than WIN and TIE. CONCLUSIONS: The experiences of the participants in win trials showed great similarity among different win-lose situations. However, the brain activity and behavior responses of the participants in lose trials indicated that they experienced stronger negative emotion in LOSS. The participants also showed an increased desire to win in LOSS than in WIN or TIE conditions.

Intersections of Jane Jacobs’ conditions for diversity and low-carbon urban systems: a look at four global cities

Countless cities are rapidly developing across the globe, pressing the need for clear urban planning and design recommendations geared towards sustainability. This article examines the intersections of Jane Jacobs’ four conditions for diversity with low-carbon and low-energy use urban systems in four cities around the world: Lyon (France), Chicago (United-States), Kolkata (India), and Singapore (Singapore). After reviewing Jacobs’ four conditions for diversity, we introduce the four cities and describe their historical development context. We then present a framework to study the cities along three dimensions: population and density, infrastructure development/use, and climate and landscape. These cities differ in many respects and their analysis is instructive for many other cities around the globe. Jacobs’ conditions are present in all of them, manifested in different ways and to varying degrees. Overall we find that the adoption of Jacobs' conditions seems to align well with concepts of low-carbon urban systems, with their focus on walkability, transit-oriented design, and more efficient land use (i.e., smaller unit sizes). Transportation sector emissions seems to demonstrate a stronger influence from the presence of Jacobs' conditions, while the link was less pronounced in the building sector. Kolkata, a low-income, developing world city, seems to possess many of Jacobs' conditions, while exhibiting low per capita emissions - maintaining both of these during its economic expansion will take careful consideration. Greenhouse gas mitigation, however, is inherently an in situ problem and the first task must therefore be to gain local knowledge of an area before developing strategies to lower its carbon footprint.

Simultaneous activities in the household and residential electricity demand in Spain

Recent research and policy studies on the low-carbon future highlight the importance of flexible electricity demand. This might be problematic particularly for residential electricity demand, which is related to simultaneous consumers’ practices in the household. This paper analyses issues of simultaneity in residential electricity demand in Spain. It makes use of the 2011 Spanish Time Use Survey data with comparisons from the previous Spanish Time Use Survey and the Harmonised European Time Use Surveys. Findings show that media activities are associated the highest levels of continuity and simultaneity, particularly in the early and late parts of the evening during weekdays.

Overview of mathematical approaches used to model bacterial chemotaxis II: bacterial populations

We review the application of mathematical modeling to understanding the behavior of populations of chemotactic bacteria. The application of continuum mathematical models, in particular generalized Keller-Segel models, is discussed along with attempts to incorporate the microscale (individual) behavior on the macroscale, modeling the interaction between different species of bacteria, the interaction of bacteria with their environment, and methods used to obtain experimentally verified parameter values. We allude briefly to the role of modeling pattern formation in understanding collective behavior within bacterial populations. Various aspects of each model are discussed and areas for possible future research are postulated.

Using the web graph to influence application behaviour

The Web's link structure (termed the Web Graph) is a richly connected set of Web pages. Current applications use this graph for indexing and information retrieval purposes. In contrast the relationship between Web Graph and application is reversed by letting the structure of the Web Graph influence the behaviour of an application. Presents a novel Web crawling agent, AlienBot, the output of which is orthogonally coupled to the enemy generation strategy of a computer game. The Web Graph guides AlienBot, causing it to generate a stochastic process. Shows the effectiveness of such unorthodox coupling to both the playability of the game and the heuristics of the Web crawler. In addition, presents the results of the sample of Web pages collected by the crawling process. In particular, shows: how AlienBot was able to identify the power law inherent in the link structure of the Web; that 61.74 per cent of Web pages use some form of scripting technology; that the size of the Web can be estimated at just over 5.2 billion pages; and that less than 7 per cent of Web pages fully comply with some variant of (X)HTML.

Hidden

The exhibition Hidden researches the relationship between an artist book and paintings that use the form of a book. The exhibition investigates the overlaps between reading and looking.

The potential of flood forecasting using a variable-resolution global Digital Terrain Model and flood extents from Synthetic Aperture Radar images

A basic data requirement of a river flood inundation model is a Digital Terrain Model (DTM) of the reach being studied. The scale at which modeling is required determines the accuracy required of the DTM. For modeling floods in urban areas, a high resolution DTM such as that produced by airborne LiDAR (Light Detection And Ranging) is most useful, and large parts of many developed countries have now been mapped using LiDAR. In remoter areas, it is possible to model flooding on a larger scale using a lower resolution DTM, and in the near future the DTM of choice is likely to be that derived from the TanDEM-X Digital Elevation Model (DEM). A variable-resolution global DTM obtained by combining existing high and low resolution data sets would be useful for modeling flood water dynamics globally, at high resolution wherever possible and at lower resolution over larger rivers in remote areas. A further important data resource used in flood modeling is the flood extent, commonly derived from Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images. Flood extents become more useful if they are intersected with the DTM, when water level observations (WLOs) at the flood boundary can be estimated at various points along the river reach. To illustrate the utility of such a global DTM, two examples of recent research involving WLOs at opposite ends of the spatial scale are discussed. The first requires high resolution spatial data, and involves the assimilation of WLOs from a real sequence of high resolution SAR images into a flood model to update the model state with observations over time, and to estimate river discharge and model parameters, including river bathymetry and friction. The results indicate the feasibility of such an Earth Observation-based flood forecasting system. The second example is at a larger scale, and uses SAR-derived WLOs to improve the lower-resolution TanDEM-X DEM in the area covered by the flood extents. The resulting reduction in random height error is significant.

European Union: Shadow WTO agricultural domestic support notifications

The notification of the level of domestic support to the World Trade Organization (WTO) is intended to reflect compliance with obligations entered into at the time of the Uruguay Round. WTO members have often been slow to provide notification of domestic support levels. This makes the process of notification less useful as an indicator of the degree to which changes in policy have or have not benefited the trade system as a whole and exporting countries in particular. The notification of domestic support in the E.U. illustrates the value of a measure that reflects current policies and can therefore act as a basis for negotiation of further disciplines where these are necessary. The E.U. has made major changes in its Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) over the period since 1992 when the MacSharry reforms were implemented. Payments originally notified in the blue box (related to supply control) have over time been changed until in their present form they are unrelated to current production or price levels, and hence can satisfy the criteria for the green box. The E.U. has therefore much more latitude in trade talks to agree to reductions in the allowable trade-distorting support. This paper reproduced the E.U. notifications relating to 2003/04 and extends these with official statistics to the year 2006/07. It then projects forward the components of domestic support until the year 2013/14, based on forecasts of future production and estimates of policy parameters. The impact of a successful Doha Round is simulated, showing that the constraints envisaged in the WTO draft modalities document of May 19, 2008, would be binding by the year 2013, at about the time the next budget cycle in the E.U. starts. Without the Doha Round constraints, further reform might still happen for domestic reasons, but the framework provided by the WTO for domestic policy spending would be less relevant. In that case, much could hinge on the legitimacy of the Single Farm Payment system under the current rules governing the green box.

The Kasparov-World Game

Kasparov-World, initiated by Microsoft and also sponsored by First USA, was a novel correspondence game played on the World Wide Web at one ply per day. This was the first time that any group had attempted to form on the Web and then solve shared problems against fixed, short-term deadlines. The first author first became involved in his role as a Web consultant, observing the dynamics and effectiveness of the group. These are fully described, together with observations on the technological contribution and the second author's post-hoc computation of some relevant Endgame Tables.

Effect of building gap to improve pedestrian comfort levels and ventilation

Rapid rates of urbanization have resulted into increased concerns of urban environment. Amongst them, wind and thermal comfort levels for pedestrians have attracted research interest. In this regards, urban wind environment is seen as a crucial components that can lead to improved thermal comfort levels for pedestrian population. High rise building in modern urban setting causes high levels of turbulence that renders discomfort to pedestrians. Additionally, a higher frequency of high ris e buildings at a particular region acts as a shield against the wind flow to the lower buildings beyond them resulting into higher levels of discomfort to users or residents. Studies conducted on developing wind flow models using Computational Fluid Dynami cs (CFD) simulations have revealed improvement in interval to height ratios can results into improved wind flow within the simulation grid. However, high value and demand for land in urban areas renders expansion to be an impractical solution. Nonetheless, innovative utilization of architectural concepts can be imagined to improve the pedestrian comfort levels through improved wind permeability. This paper assesses the possibility of through-building gaps being a solution to improve pedestrian comfort levels.

Solution calorimetry as a tool for investigating drug interaction with intestinal fluid

Solution calorimetry offers a reproducible technique for measuring the enthalpy of solution (ΔsolH) of a solute dissolving into a solvent. The ΔsolH of two solutes, propranolol HCl and mannitol were determined in simulated intestinal fluid (SIF) solutions designed to model the fed and fasted states within the gut, and in Hanks’ balanced salt solution (HBSS) of varying pH. The bile salt and lipid within the SIF solutions formed mixed micelles. Both solutes exhibited endothermic reactions in all solvents. The ΔsolH for propranolol HCl in the SIF solutions differed from those in the HBSS and was lower in the fed state than the fasted state SIF solution, revealing an interaction between propranolol and the micellar phase in both SIF solutions. In contrast, for mannitol the ΔsolH was constant in all solutions indicating minimal interaction between mannitol and the micellar phases of the SIF solutions. In this study, solution calorimetry proved to be a simple method for measuring the enthalpy associated with the dissolution of model drugs in complex biological media such as SIF solutions. In addition, the derived power–time curves allowed the time taken for the powdered solutes to form solutions to be estimated.

Sunlit fractions on urban facets: impact of spatial resolution and approach

The extent of the surface area sunlit is critical for radiative energy exchanges and therefore for a wide range of applications that require urban land surface models (ULSM), ranging from human comfort to weather forecasting. Here a computational demanding shadow casting algorithm is used to assess the capability of a simple single-layer urban canopy model, which assumes an infinitely long rotating canyon (ILC), to reproduce sunlit areas on roof and roads over central London. Results indicate that the sunlit roads areas are well-represented but somewhat smaller using an ILC, while sunlit roofs areas are consistently larger, especially for dense urban areas. The largest deviations from real world sunlit areas are found for roofs during mornings and evenings. Indications that sunlit fractions on walls are overestimated using an ILC during mornings and evenings are found. The implications of these errors are dependent on the application targeted. For example, (independent of albedo) ULSMs used in numerical weather prediction applying ILC representation of the urban form will overestimate outgoing shortwave radiation from roofs due to the overestimation of sunlit fraction of the roofs. Complications of deriving height to width ratios from real world data are also discussed.

Modeling plant transpiration under limited soil water: comparison of different plant and soil hydraulic parameterizations and preliminary implications for their use in land surface models

Accurate estimates of how soil water stress affects plant transpiration are crucial for reliable land surface model (LSM) predictions. Current LSMs generally use a water stress factor, β, dependent on soil moisture content, θ, that ranges linearly between β = 1 for unstressed vegetation and β = 0 when wilting point is reached. This paper explores the feasibility of replacing the current approach with equations that use soil water potential as their independent variable, or with a set of equations that involve hydraulic and chemical signaling, thereby ensuring feedbacks between the entire soil–root–xylem–leaf system. A comparison with the original linear θ-based water stress parameterization, and with its improved curvi-linear version, was conducted. Assessment of model suitability was focused on their ability to simulate the correct (as derived from experimental data) curve shape of relative transpiration versus fraction of transpirable soil water. We used model sensitivity analyses under progressive soil drying conditions, employing two commonly used approaches to calculate water retention and hydraulic conductivity curves. Furthermore, for each of these hydraulic parameterizations we used two different parameter sets, for 3 soil texture types; a total of 12 soil hydraulic permutations. Results showed that the resulting transpiration reduction functions (TRFs) varied considerably among the models. The fact that soil hydraulic conductivity played a major role in the model that involved hydraulic and chemical signaling led to unrealistic values of β, and hence TRF, for many soil hydraulic parameter sets. However, this model is much better equipped to simulate the behavior of different plant species. Based on these findings, we only recommend implementation of this approach into LSMs if great care with choice of soil hydraulic parameters is taken