The emergence and use of diagramming in system dynamics: a critical account

The paper reviews the leading diagramming methods employed in system dynamics to communicate the contents of models. The main ideas and historical development of the field are first outlined. Two diagramming methods—causal loop diagrams (CLDs) and stock/flow diagrams (SFDs)—are then described and their advantages and limitations discussed. A set of broad research directions is then outlined. These concern: the abilities of different diagrams to communicate different ideas, the role that diagrams have in group model building, and the question of whether diagrams can be an adequate substitute for simulation modelling. The paper closes by suggesting that although diagrams alone are insufficient, they have many benefits. However, since these benefits have emerged only as ‘craft wisdom’, a more rigorous programme of research into the diagrams' respective attributes is called for.

'Thou glorious kingdome, thou chiefe of empires': Persia in seventeenth-century travel literature

This article discusses a series of texts by or about travellers to Safavid Persia in the early seventeenth century, and in particular the literature surrounding the Sherley brothers. It looks at the ways in which, in order to encourage support for the voyages they described, English travel writers emphasised the potential for closer Anglo-Persian relations. In doing so, such narratives took advantage of a developing awareness of sectarian division within Islam in order to differentiate Persia from the Ottoman Empire. The article then examines how The Travailes of the Three English Brothers (1607) by Day, Rowley and Wilkins, built on the possibilities suggested by the travel writings, and specifically their recognition of Islamic sectarian division, to develop an idealised model of how relations between Persia and England might function. More broadly, these texts demonstrate travellers’ interest in looking for potential correlation between Christian and Muslim identities during this period.

Pharmacometabonomic characterization of xenobiotic and endogenous metabolic phenotypes that account for inter-individual variation in isoniazid-induced toxicological response

An NMR-based pharmacometabonomic approach was applied to investigate inter-animal variation in response to isoniazid (INH; 200 and 400 mg/kg) in male Sprague-Dawley rats, alongside complementary clinical chemistry and histopathological analysis. Marked inter-animal variability in central nervous system (CNS) toxicity was identified following administration of a high dose of INH, which enabled characterization of CNS responders and CNS non-responders. High-resolution post-dose urinary (1)H NMR spectra were modeled both by their xenobiotic and endogenous metabolic information sets, enabling simultaneous identification of the differential metabolic fate of INH and its associated endogenous metabolic consequences in CNS responders and CNS non-responders. A characteristic xenobiotic metabolic profile was observed for CNS responders, which revealed higher urinary levels of pyruvate isonicotinylhydrazone and β-glucosyl isonicotinylhydrazide and lower levels of acetylisoniazid compared to CNS non-responders. This suggested that the capacity for acetylation of INH was lower in CNS responders, leading to increased metabolism via conjugation with pyruvate and glucose. In addition, the endogenous metabolic profile of CNS responders revealed higher urinary levels of lactate and glucose, in comparison to CNS non-responders. Pharmacometabonomic analysis of the pre-dose (1)H NMR urinary spectra identified a metabolic signature that correlated with the development of INH-induced adverse CNS effects and may represent a means of predicting adverse events and acetylation capacity when challenged with high dose INH. Given the widespread use of INH for the treatment of tuberculosis, this pharmacometabonomic screening approach may have translational potential for patient stratification to minimize adverse events.

Reviewing the sustainability/stationarity of current account imbalances with tests for bounded integration

We investigate for 26 OECD economies whether their current account imbalances to GDP are driven by stochastic trends. Regarding bounded stationarity as the more natural counterpart of sustainability, results from Phillips–Perron tests for unit root and bounded unit root processes are contrasted. While the former hint at stationarity of current account imbalances for 12 economies, the latter indicate bounded stationarity for only six economies. Through panel-based test statistics, current account imbalances are diagnosed as bounded non-stationary. Thus, (spurious) rejections of the unit root hypothesis might be due to the existence of bounds reflecting hidden policy controls or financial crises.

Effect of hypobaric hypoxia, simulating conditions during long-haul air travel, on coagulation, fibrinolysis, platelet function, and endothelial activation

CONTEXT: The link between long-haul air travel and venous thromboembolism is the subject of continuing debate. It remains unclear whether the reduced cabin pressure and oxygen tension in the airplane cabin create an increased risk compared with seated immobility at ground level. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether hypobaric hypoxia, which may be encountered during air travel, activates hemostasis. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: A single-blind, crossover study, performed in a hypobaric chamber, to assess the effect of an 8-hour seated exposure to hypobaric hypoxia on hemostasis in 73 healthy volunteers, which was conducted in the United Kingdom from September 2003 to November 2005. Participants were screened for factor V Leiden G1691A and prothrombin G20210A mutation and were excluded if they tested positive. Blood was drawn before and after exposure to assess activation of hemostasis. INTERVENTIONS: Individuals were exposed alternately (> or =1 week apart) to hypobaric hypoxia, similar to the conditions of reduced cabin pressure during commercial air travel (equivalent to atmospheric pressure at an altitude of 2438 m), and normobaric normoxia (control condition; equivalent to atmospheric conditions at ground level, circa 70 m above sea level). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Comparative changes in markers of coagulation activation, fibrinolysis, platelet activation, and endothelial cell activation. RESULTS: Changes were observed in some hemostatic markers during the normobaric exposure, attributed to prolonged sitting and circadian variation. However, there were no significant differences between the changes in the hypobaric and the normobaric exposures. For example, the median difference in change between the hypobaric and normobaric exposure was 0 ng/mL for thrombin-antithrombin complex (95% CI, -0.30 to 0.30 ng/mL); -0.02 [corrected] nmol/L for prothrombin fragment 1 + 2 (95% CI, -0.03 to 0.01 nmol/L); 1.38 ng/mL for D-dimer (95% CI, -3.63 to 9.72 ng/mL); and -2.00% for endogenous thrombin potential (95% CI, -4.00% to 1.00%). CONCLUSION: Our findings do not support the hypothesis that hypobaric hypoxia, of the degree that might be encountered during long-haul air travel, is associated with prothrombotic alterations in the hemostatic system in healthy individuals at low risk of venous thromboembolism.

Parameterization of contrails in the UK Met Office Climate Model

Persistent contrails are believed to currently have a relatively small but significant positive radiative forcing on climate. With air travel predicted to continue its rapid growth over the coming years, the contrail warming effect on climate is expected to increase. Nevertheless, there remains a high level of uncertainty in the current estimates of contrail radiative forcing. Contrail formation depends mostly on the aircraft flying in cold and moist enough air masses. Most studies to date have relied on simple parameterizations using averaged meteorological conditions. In this paper we take into account the short‐term variability in background cloudiness by developing an on‐line contrail parameterization for the UK Met Office climate model. With this parameterization, we estimate that for the air traffic of year 2002 the global mean annual linear contrail coverage was approximately 0.11%. Assuming a global mean contrail optical depth of 0.2 or smaller and assuming hexagonal ice crystals, the corresponding contrail radiative forcing was calculated to be less than 10 mW m−2 in all‐sky conditions. We find that the natural cloud masking effect on contrails may be significantly higher than previously believed. This new result is explained by the fact that contrails seem to preferentially form in cloudy conditions, which ameliorates their overall climate impact by approximately 40%.

Foreign credit: travel writing and authenticity in the dutch translation of The memoirs and travels of Mauritius Augustus, Count de Benyowsky (1790)

This article explores the translation and reception of the Memoirs and Travels (1790) of Count Mauritius Augustus Benyowsky (1746-86) in the Netherlands, and examines the complications, tensions and problems that transfer between a major and a more minor European language involves. I analyse how the Dutch translator Petrus Loosjes Adriaanszoon positioned himself as a mediator between these very different source and target cultures and ask how he dealt with the problems of plausibility and ‘credit’ which had beleaguered the reception of the Memoirs and Travels from the outset. In this article I am concerned to restore minority languages to the discussion of how travel literature circulated in Western Europe at the close of the eighteenth century and to demonstrate how major/minor language translation was central to the construction of Dutch-language culture in the Low Countries in this period.