Impact of long-range correlations on trend detection in total ozone

Total ozone trends are typically studied using linear regression models that assume a first-order autoregression of the residuals [so-called AR(1) models]. We consider total ozone time series over 60°S–60°N from 1979 to 2005 and show that most latitude bands exhibit long-range correlated (LRC) behavior, meaning that ozone autocorrelation functions decay by a power law rather than exponentially as in AR(1). At such latitudes the uncertainties of total ozone trends are greater than those obtained from AR(1) models and the expected time required to detect ozone recovery correspondingly longer. We find no evidence of LRC behavior in southern middle-and high-subpolar latitudes (45°–60°S), where the long-term ozone decline attributable to anthropogenic chlorine is the greatest. We thus confirm an earlier prediction based on an AR(1) analysis that this region (especially the highest latitudes, and especially the South Atlantic) is the optimal location for the detection of ozone recovery, with a statistically significant ozone increase attributable to chlorine likely to be detectable by the end of the next decade. In northern middle and high latitudes, on the other hand, there is clear evidence of LRC behavior. This increases the uncertainties on the long-term trend attributable to anthropogenic chlorine by about a factor of 1.5 and lengthens the expected time to detect ozone recovery by a similar amount (from ∼2030 to ∼2045). If the long-term changes in ozone are instead fit by a piecewise-linear trend rather than by stratospheric chlorine loading, then the strong decrease of northern middle- and high-latitude ozone during the first half of the 1990s and its subsequent increase in the second half of the 1990s projects more strongly on the trend and makes a smaller contribution to the noise. This both increases the trend and weakens the LRC behavior at these latitudes, to the extent that ozone recovery (according to this model, and in the sense of a statistically significant ozone increase) is already on the verge of being detected. The implications of this rather controversial interpretation are discussed.

Evidence of increased net ecosystem productivity associated with a longer vegetated season in a deciduous forest in south-central Indiana, USA

Observations of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of carbon and its biophysical drivers have been collected at the AmeriFlux site in the Morgan-Monroe State Forest (MMSF) in Indiana, USA since 1998. Thus, this is one of the few deciduous forest sites in the world, where a decadal analysis on net ecosystem productivity (NEP) trends is possible. Despite the large interannual variability in NEP, the observations show a significant increase in forest productivity over the past 10 years (by an annual increment of about 10 g C m−2 yr−1). There is evidence that this trend can be explained by longer vegetative seasons, caused by extension of the vegetative activity in the fall. Both phenological and flux observations indicate that the vegetative season extended later in the fall with an increase in length of about 3 days yr−1 for the past 10 years. However, these changes are responsible for only 50% of the total annual gain in forest productivity in the past decade. A negative trend in air and soil temperature during the winter months may explain an equivalent increase in NEP through a decrease in ecosystem respiration.

Evidence for solar wind modulation of lightning

The response of lightning rates over Europe to arrival of high speed solar wind streams at Earth is investigated using a superposed epoch analysis. Fast solar wind stream arrival is determined from modulation of the solar wind V y component, measured by the Advanced Composition Explorer spacecraft. Lightning rate changes around these event times are determined from the very low frequency arrival time difference (ATD) system of the UK Met Office. Arrival of high speed streams at Earth is found to be preceded by a decrease in total solar irradiance and an increase in sunspot number and Mg II emissions. These are consistent with the high speed stream's source being co-located with an active region appearing on the Eastern solar limb and rotating at the 27 d period of the Sun. Arrival of the high speed stream at Earth also coincides with a small (~1%) but rapid decrease in galactic cosmic ray flux, a moderate (~6%) increase in lower energy solar energetic protons (SEPs), and a substantial, statistically significant increase in lightning rates. These changes persist for around 40 d in all three quantities. The lightning rate increase is corroborated by an increase in the total number of thunder days observed by UK Met stations, again persisting for around 40 d after the arrival of a high speed solar wind stream. This result appears to contradict earlier studies that found an anti-correlation between sunspot number and thunder days over solar cycle timescales. The increase in lightning rates and thunder days that we observe coincides with an increased flux of SEPs which, while not being detected at ground level, nevertheless penetrate the atmosphere to tropospheric altitudes. This effect could be further amplified by an increase in mean lightning stroke intensity that brings more strokes above the detection threshold of the ATD system. In order to remove any potential seasonal bias the analysis was repeated for daily solar wind triggers occurring during the summer months (June to August). Though this reduced the number of solar wind triggers to 32, the response in both lightning and thunder day data remained statistically significant. This modulation of lightning by regular and predictable solar wind events may be beneficial to medium range forecasting of hazardous weather.

Associations between FTO genotype and total energy and macronutrients intake: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Risk variants of the fat-mass and obesity-associated (FTO) gene have been associated with increased obesity. However, the evidence for associations between FTO genotype and macronutrients intake has not been reviewed systematically. Our aim was to evaluate potential associations between FTO genotype and intakes of total energy, fat, carbohydrate and protein. We undertook a systematic literature search in Medline, Scopus, EMBASE and Cochrane of associations between macronutrients intake and FTO genotype in adults. Beta coefficients and confidence intervals were used for per-allele comparisons. Random-effects models assessed the pooled effect sizes. We identified 56 eligible studies reporting on 213 173 adults. For each copy of the FTO risk allele, individuals reported 6.46 kcal/day (95% CI: 10.76, 2.16) lower total energy intake (P=0.003). Total fat (P=0.028) and protein (P=0.006), but not carbohydrate intakes, were higher in those carrying the FTO risk allele. After adjustment for body weight, total energy intakes remained significantly lower in individuals with the FTO risk genotype (P=0.028). The FTO risk allele is associated with a lower reported total energy intake and with altered patterns of macronutrients intake. Although significant, these differences are small and further research is needed to determine whether the associations are independent of dietary misreporting.

Evidence of evolving extraintestinal enteroaggregative Escherichia coli ST38 clone

BACKGROUND: Several clones of extended-spectrum β-lactamase (ESBL)–producing extraintestinal pathogenic Escherichia coli (ExPEC) have globally expanded their distribution. ExPEC infections often originate from the patient’s own intestinal flora, although the degree of overlap between diarrheagenic E. coli and ExPEC pathotypes is unclear. Relatively little is known about antimicrobial drug resistance in the most common diarrheagenic E. coli groups, including enteroaggregative E. coli (EAEC), and bacterial gastroenteritis is generally managed without use of antimicrobial drugs. APPROACHES: We conducted this study to establish the presence and characteristics of ESBL-producing EAEC in a well-defined collection of ESBL-producing isolates. The isolates were from human and animal sources in Germany, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom. DNA from 359 ESBL isolates was screened for the presence of the EAEC transport regulator gene (aggR), located on the EAEC plasmid, using a real-time PCR assay and the phylogroup was determined for each positive isolate. A microarray was used to detect ESBL genes, such as blaCTX-M, at the group level, as previously described. The antimicrobial drug susceptibilities of EAEC isolates were determined and virulence factors associated with intestinal and extraintestinal infection and with EAEC were investigated . RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: We assigned a virulence score (total number of virulence factor genes detected; maximum possible score 22) and a resistance score (total number of drug classes; maximum score 11) to each isolate. We isolated 11 EAEC from humans. Eight of the EAEC were isolated from urine specimens, and 1 was isolated from a blood culture; 63% belonged to phylogroup D (Table). EAEC ST38, the most common (55%) ST, was significantly associated with extraintestinal sites in the subset of 140 human isolates (Fisher exact test, p<0.0001)

Intake of total and subgroups of fat minimally affect the associations between selected single nucleotide polymorphisms in the PPARγ pathway and changes in anthropometry among European adults from cohorts of the DiOGenes study

BACKGROUND: Although the peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor γ (PPARγ) pathway is central in adipogenesis, it remains unknown whether it influences change in body weight (BW) and whether dietary fat has a modifying effect on the association. OBJECTIVES: We examined whether 27 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) within 4 genes in the PPARγ pathway are associated with the OR of being a BW gainer or with annual changes in anthropometry and whether intake of total fat, monounsaturated fat, polyunsaturated fat, or saturated fat has a modifying effect on these associations. METHODS: A case-noncase study included 11,048 men and women from cohorts in the European Diet, Obesity and Genes study; 5552 were cases, defined as individuals with the greatest BW gain during follow-up, and 6548 were randomly selected, including 5496 noncases. We selected 4 genes [CCAAT/enhancer binding protein β (CEBPB), phosphoenolpyruvate carboxykinase 2, PPARγ gene (PPARG), and sterol regulatory element binding transcription factor 1] according to evidence about biologic plausibility for interactions with dietary fat in weight regulation. Diet was assessed at baseline, and anthropometry was followed for 7 y. RESULTS: The ORs for being a BW gainer for the 27 genetic variants ranged from 0.87 (95% CI: 0.79, 1.03) to 1.12 (95% CI: 0.96, 1.22) per additional minor allele. Uncorrected, CEBPB rs4253449 had a significant interaction with the intake of total fat and subgroups of fat. The OR for being a BW gainer for each additional rs4253449 minor allele per 100 kcal higher total fat intake was 1.07 (95% CI: 1.02, 1.12; P = 0.008), and similar associations were found for subgroups of fat. CONCLUSIONS: Among European men and women, the influence of dietary fat on associations between SNPs in the PPARγ pathway and anthropometry is likely to be absent or marginal. The observed interaction between rs4253449 and dietary fat needs confirmation.