Metrics for solar wind prediction models: Comparison of empirical, hybrid, and physics-based schemes with 8 years of L1 observations

Space weather effects on technological systems originate with energy carried from the Sun to the terrestrial environment by the solar wind. In this study, we present results of modeling of solar corona-heliosphere processes to predict solar wind conditions at the L1 Lagrangian point upstream of Earth. In particular we calculate performance metrics for (1) empirical, (2) hybrid empirical/physics-based, and (3) full physics-based coupled corona-heliosphere models over an 8-year period (1995–2002). L1 measurements of the radial solar wind speed are the primary basis for validation of the coronal and heliosphere models studied, though other solar wind parameters are also considered. The models are from the Center for Integrated Space-Weather Modeling (CISM) which has developed a coupled model of the whole Sun-to-Earth system, from the solar photosphere to the terrestrial thermosphere. Simple point-by-point analysis techniques, such as mean-square-error and correlation coefficients, indicate that the empirical coronal-heliosphere model currently gives the best forecast of solar wind speed at 1 AU. A more detailed analysis shows that errors in the physics-based models are predominately the result of small timing offsets to solar wind structures and that the large-scale features of the solar wind are actually well modeled. We suggest that additional “tuning” of the coupling between the coronal and heliosphere models could lead to a significant improvement of their accuracy. Furthermore, we note that the physics-based models accurately capture dynamic effects at solar wind stream interaction regions, such as magnetic field compression, flow deflection, and density buildup, which the empirical scheme cannot.

The role of lateral ocean physics in the upper ocean thermal balance of a coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM

The sensitivity of the upper ocean thermal balance of an ocean-atmosphere coupled GCM to lateral ocean physics is assessed. Three 40-year simulations are performed using horizontal mixing, isopycnal mixing, and isopycnal mixing plus eddy induced advection. The thermal adjustment of the coupled system is quite different between the simulations, confirming the major role of ocean mixing on the heat balance of climate. The initial adjustment phase of the upper ocean (SST) is used to diagnose the physical mechanisms involved in each parametrisation. When the lateral ocean physics is modified, significant changes of SST are seen, mainly in the southern ocean. A heat budget of the annual mixed layer (defined as the “bowl”) shows that these changes are due to a modified heat transfer between the bowl and the ocean interior. This modified heat intake of the ocean interior is directly due to the modified lateral ocean physics. In isopycnal diffusion, this heat exchange, especially marked at mid-latitudes, is both due to an increased effective surface of diffusion and to the sign of the isopycnal gradients of temperature at the base of the bowl. As this gradient is proportional to the isopycnal gradient of salinity, this confirms the strong role of salinity in the thermal balance of the coupled system. The eddy induced advection also leads to increased exchanges between the bowl and the ocean interior. This is both due to the shape of the bowl and again to the existence of a salinity structure. The lateral ocean physics is shown to be a significant contributor to the exchanges between the diabatic and the adiabatic parts of the ocean.

Performance of the OPA/ARPEGE-T21 global ocean-atmosphere coupled model

The climatology of the OPA/ARPEGE-T21 coupled general circulation model (GCM) is presented. The atmosphere GCM has a T21 spectral truncation and the ocean GCM has a 2°×1.5° average resolution. A 50-year climatic simulation is performed using the OASIS coupler, without flux correction techniques. The mean state and seasonal cycle for the last 10 years of the experiment are described and compared to the corresponding uncoupled experiments and to climatology when available. The model reasonably simulates most of the basic features of the observed climate. Energy budgets and transports in the coupled system, of importance for climate studies, are assessed and prove to be within available estimates. After an adjustment phase of a few years, the model stabilizes around a mean state where the tropics are warm and resemble a permanent ENSO, the Southern Ocean warms and almost no sea-ice is left in the Southern Hemisphere. The atmospheric circulation becomes more zonal and symmetric with respect to the equator. Once those systematic errors are established, the model shows little secular drift, the small remaining trends being mainly associated to horizontal physics in the ocean GCM. The stability of the model is shown to be related to qualities already present in the uncoupled GCMs used, namely a balanced radiation budget at the top-of-the-atmosphere and a tight ocean thermocline.

Coriolis perturbations in the infrared spectrum of ethylene

Rotational structure has been resolved and analyzed in two of the infrared‐active perpendicular bands of C2H4 vapor: the Type b fundamental band, ν10, at 826 cm—1, and the Type c fundamental band, ν7, at 949 cm—1. Many of the individual PP and RR branch lines have been observed. The analysis has been confined to values of the quantum number K≥3, for which energy levels ethylene shows no detectable deviations from a symmetric‐top rotational structure. The analysis reveals a Coriolis interaction between ν7 and ν10, and between ν4 and ν10, and values of the Coriolis constants ζ7,10z and ζ4,10y are obtained; these are related to normal coordinate calculations for the appropriate symmetry species, and force constants are derived to fit the observed zeta constants. The band center of ν10 has been revised from the original figure of 810 cm—1 to the new value, 826 cm—1, and the inactive frequency ν4 is estimated to lie at 1023±3 cm—1, in good agreement with the previous estimate of 1027 cm—1. The change in the value of ν10 leads to a suggested change in the value of the Raman‐active fundamental ν6 from 1236 to 1222 cm—1. New combination bands have been observed at 2174 cm—1, assigned as ν3+ν10; and at 2252 cm—1, assigned as ν4+ν6; also rotational structure has been resolved and analyzed in the ν6+ν10 band at 2048 cm—1. The new data obtained for the C2H4 molecule are summarized in Table XII, with all of the other data presently available on the vibrational and rotational constants.

Rotational spectra induced by vibrations

Mizushima and Venkateswarlu showed in 1953 that certain molecules have the property that excited vibrational states may possess rotational spectra even when the rotational spectrum of the ground vibrational state is forbidden by symmetry. We call such a spectrum a vibrationally induced rotational spectrum, and have made a systematic examination of the point groups which permit such behaviour. We also give formulae for the approximate line frequencies and intensities in these spectra, and discuss some of the problems involved in observing them. The spectra can only arise from degenerate vibrational states, and are of three possible types: i) symmetric top perpendicular spectra, shown by molecules belonging to the point groups Dnh, Dn and Cnh, where n is odd; (ii) symmetric top parallel spectra, shown by molecules belonging to Dnd and S2n, where n is even; and (iii) spherical top spectra, shown by molecules belonging to T or Td. Excited vibrational states of polar molecules of point groups Cnv or Cn, where n is odd, may also possess vibrationally induced perpendicular components of type (i), in addition to their ordinary parallel spectra. In addition to the above limitations on the point groups there are, in general, limitations on the symmetry species of the degenerate vibrational states.

Vibration-rotation spectra of deuterated nitrous acid, DONO

High-resolution Fourier transform infrared spectra have been recorded and analyzed for the ν3, ν4, ν5, and ν6 fundamental bands of trans-DONO, and for the ν4 fundamental of cis-DONO. The spectral resolution was better than 0.01 cm−1, and the bands have been fitted using an asymmetric top Hamiltonian with a standard deviation of around 0.0006 cm−1.

Direct estimates of emissions from the megacity of Lagos

We report here top-down emissions estimates for an African megacity. A boundary layer circumnavigation of Lagos, Nigeria was completed using the FAAM BAe146 aircraft as part of the AMMA project. These observations together with an inferred boundary layer height allow the flux of pollutants to be calculated. Extrapolation gives annual emissions for CO, NOx, and VOCs of 1.44 Tg yr−1, 0.03 Tg yr−1 and 0.37 Tg yr−1 respectively with uncertainties of +250/−60%. These inferred emissions are consistent with bottom-up estimates for other developing megacities and are attributed to the evaporation of fuels, mobile combustion and natural gas emissions.

Simulation of milk production by dairy cows fed sugarcane top-based diets with locally available supplements under Indian conditions

A model of sugarcane digestion was applied to indicate the suitability of various locally available supplements for enhancing milk production of Indian crossbred dairy cattle. Milk production was calculated according to simulated energy, lipogenic, glucogenic and aminogenic substrate availability. The model identified the most limiting substrate for milk production from different sugarcane-based diets. For sugarcane tops/urea fed alone, milk production was most limited by amino acid followed by long chain fatty acid availability. Among the protein-rich oil cake supplements at 100, 200 and 300 g supplement/kg total DM, cottonseed oil cake proved superior with a milk yield of 5.5, 7.3 and 8.3 kg/day, respectively. This was followed by mustard oil cake with 5.1, 6.5 and 7.6 kg/day, respectively. In the case of a protein-rich supplement (fish meal), milk yield was limited to 6.6 kg/day due to a shortage of long chain fatty acids. However, at 300 g of supplementation, energy became limiting, with a milk yield of 6.7 kg/day. Supplementation with rice bran and rice polishings at 100, 200 and 300 g restricted milk yield to 4.3, 4.9 and 5.5 and 4.5, 5.3 and 6.1 kg/day, respectively, and amino acids became the factor limiting milk production. The diet comprising basal sugarcane tops supplemented by leguminous fodder, dry fodder (e.g. rice or wheat straw) and concentrates at levels of 100, 200 and 300 g supplements/kg total diet DM proved to be the most balanced with a milk yield of 5.1, 6.7 and 9.0 kg/day, respectively.

Direct estimates of emissions from the megacity of Lagos

We report here top-down emissions estimates for an African megacity. A boundary layer circumnavigation of Lagos, Nigeria was completed using the FAAM BAe146 aircraft as part of the AMMA project. These observations together with an inferred boundary layer height allow the flux of pollutants to be calculated. Extrapolation gives annual emissions for CO, NOx, and VOCs of 1.44 Tg yr(-1), 0.03 Tg yr(-1) and 0.37 Tg yr(-1) respectively with uncertainties of (+250)/(-60%). These inferred emissions are consistent with bottom-up estimates for other developing megacities and are attributed to the evaporation of fuels, mobile combustion and natural gas emissions.

The symbiotic roles of empirical experimentation and thought experimentation in the learning of physics

This study was an attempt to identify the epistemological roots of knowledge when students carry out hands-on experiments in physics. We found that, within the context of designing a solution to a stated problem, subjects constructed and ran thought experiments intertwined within the processes of conducting physical experiments. We show that the process of alternating between these two modes- empirically experimenting and experimenting in thought- leads towards a convergence on scientifically acceptable concepts. We call this process mutual projection. In the process of mutual projection, external representations were generated. Objects in the physical environment were represented in an imaginary world and these representations were associated with processes in the physical world. It is through this coupling that constituents of both the imaginary world and the physical world gain meaning. We further show that the external representations are rooted in sensory interaction and constitute a semi-symbolic pictorial communication system, a sort of primitive 'language', which is developed as the practical work continues. The constituents of this pictorial communication system are used in the thought experiments taking place in association with the empirical experimentation. The results of this study provide a model of physics learning during hands-on experimentation.

Top-down systems biology modeling of host metabotype-microbiome associations in obese rodents

Covariation in the structural composition of the gut microbiome and the spectroscopically derived metabolic phenotype (metabotype) of a rodent model for obesity were investigated using a range of multivariate statistical tools. Urine and plasma samples from three strains of 10-week-old male Zucker rats (obese (fa/fa, n = 8), lean (fal-, n = 8) and lean (-/-, n = 8)) were characterized via high-resolution H-1 NMR spectroscopy, and in parallel, the fecal microbial composition was investigated using fluorescence in situ hydridization (FISH) and denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE) methods. All three Zucker strains had different relative abundances of the dominant members of their intestinal microbiota (FISH), with the novel observation of a Halomonas and a Sphingomonas species being present in the (fa/fa) obese strain on the basis of DGGE data. The two functionally and phenotypically normal Zucker strains (fal- and -/-) were readily distinguished from the (fa/fa) obese rats on the basis of their metabotypes with relatively lower urinary hippurate and creatinine, relatively higher levels of urinary isoleucine, leucine and acetate and higher plasma LDL and VLDL levels typifying the (fa/fa) obese strain. Collectively, these data suggest a conditional host genetic involvement in selection of the microbial species in each host strain, and that both lean and obese animals could have specific metabolic phenotypes that are linked to their individual microbiomes.

The physics of baking: rheological and polymer molecular structure-function relationships in breadmaking

Molecular size and structure of the gluten polymers that make up the major structural components of wheat are related to their rheological properties via modem polymer rheology concepts. Interactions between polymer chain entanglements and branching are seen to be the key mechanisms determining the rheology of HMW polymers. Recent work confirms the observation that dynamic shear plateau modulus is essentially independent of variations in MW amongst wheat varieties of varying baking performance and is not related to variations in baking performance, and that it is not the size of the soluble glutenin polymers, but the structural and rheological properties of the insoluble polymer fraction that are mainly responsible for variations in baking performance. The rheological properties of gas cell walls in bread doughs are considered to be important in relation to their stability and gas retention during proof and baking, in particular their extensional strain hardening properties. Large deformation rheological properties of gas cell walls were measured using biaxial extension for a number of doughs of varying breadmaking quality at constant strain rate and elevated temperatures in the range 25-60 degrees C. Strain hardening and failure strain of cell walls were both seen to decrease with temperature, with cell walls in good breadmaking doughs remaining stable and retaining their strain hardening properties to higher temperatures (60 degrees C), whilst the cell walls of poor breadmaking doughs became unstable at lower temperatures (45-50 degrees C) and had lower strain hardening. Strain hardening measured at 50 degrees C gave good correlations with baking volume, with the best correlations achieved between those rheological measurements and baking tests which used similar mixing conditions. As predicted by the Considere failure criterion, a strain hardening value of I defines a region below which gas cell walls become unstable, and discriminates well between the baking quality of a range of commercial flour blends of varying quality. This indicates that the stability of gas cell walls during baking is strongly related to their strain hardening properties, and that extensional rheological measurements can be used as predictors of baking quality. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.