Disease-weather relationships for powdery mildew and yellow rust on winter wheat

Key weather factors determining the occurrence and severity of powdery mildew and yellow rust epidemics on winter wheat were identified. Empirical models were formulated to qualitatively predict a damaging epidemic (>5% severity) and quantitatively predict the disease severity given a damaging epidemic occurred. The disease data used was from field experiments at 12 locations in the UK covering the period from 1994 to 2002 with matching data from weather stations within a 5 km range. Wind in December to February was the most influential factor for a damaging epidemic of powdery mildew. Disease severity was best identified by a model with temperature, humidity, and rain in April to June. For yellow rust, the temperature in February to June was the most influential factor for a damaging epidemic as well as for disease severity. The qualitative models identified favorable circumstances for damaging epidemics, but damaging epidemics did not always occur in such circumstances, probably due to other factors such as the availability of initial inoculum and cultivar resistance.

Adapting our cities for future climates: 17 February 2010

Over 50% of humans live in urban areas, occupying less than 3% of land area. Heat, flooding, drought and wind in urban areas were discussed in this meeting at Imperial College organised by Dr Janet Barlow (jointly held between the Royal Meteorological Society and the Wind Engineering Society).

Passive urban ventilation by combined buoyancy-driven slope flow and wall flow: Parametric CFD studies on idealized city models

This paper reports the results of a parametric CFD study on idealized city models to investigate the potential of slope flow in ventilating a city located in a mountainous region when the background synoptic wind is absent. Examples of such a city include Tokyo in Japan, Los Angeles and Phoenix in the US, and Hong Kong. Two types of buoyancy-driven flow are considered, i.e., slope flow from the mountain slope (katabatic wind at night and anabatic wind in the daytime), and wall flow due to heated/cooled urban surfaces. The combined buoyancy-driven flow system can serve the purpose of dispersing the accumulated urban air pollutants when the background wind is weak or absent. The microscopic picture of ventilation performance within the urban structures was evaluated in terms of air change rate (ACH) and age of air. The simulation results reveal that the slope flow plays an important role in ventilating the urban area, especially in calm conditions. Katabatic flow at night is conducive to mitigating the nocturnal urban heat island. In the present parametric study, the mountain slope angle and mountain height are assumed to be constant, and the changing variables are heating/cooling intensity and building height. For a typical mountain of 500 m inclined at an angle of 20° to the horizontal level, the interactive structure is very much dependent on the ratio of heating/cooling intensity as well as building height. When the building is lower than 60 m, the slope wind dominates. When the building is as high as 100 m, the contribution from the urban wall flow cannot be ignored. It is found that katabatic wind can be very beneficial to the thermal environment as well as air quality at the pedestrian level. The air change rate for the pedestrian volume can be as high as 300 ACH.

Measuring significant variability characteristics: An assessment of three UK renewables

The variability of renewable energy is widely recognised as a challenge for integrating high levels of renewable generation into electricity systems. However, to explore its implications effectively, variability itself should first be clearly understood. This is particularly true for national electricity systems with high planned penetration of renewables and limited interconnection such as the UK. Variability cannot be considered as a distinct resource property with a single measurable parameter, but is a multi-faceted concept best described by a range of distinct characteristics. This paper identifies relevant characteristics of variability, and considers their implications for energy research. This is done through analysis of wind, solar and tidal current resources, with a primary focus on the Bristol Channel region in the UK. The relationship with electricity demand is considered, alongside the potential benefits of resource diversity. Analysis is presented in terms of persistence, distribution, frequency and correlation between supply and demand. Marked differences are seen between the behaviours of the individual resources, and these give rise to a range of different implications for system integration. Wind shows strong persistence and a useful seasonal pattern, but also a high spread in energy levels at timescales beyond one or two days. The solar resource is most closely correlated with electricity demand, but is undermined by night-time zero values and an even greater spread of monthly energy delivered than wind. In contrast, the tidal resource exhibits very low persistence, but also much greater consistency in energy values assessed across monthly time scales. Whilst this paper focuses primarily on the behaviour of resources, it is noted that discrete variability characteristics can be related to different system impacts. Persistence and predictability are relevant for system balancing, whereas statistical distribution is more relevant when exploring issues of asset utilisation and energy curtailment. Areas of further research are also identified, including the need to assess the value of predictability in relation to other characteristics.

Patterns of pollen and seed dispersal in a small, fragmented population of the wind-pollinated tree Araucaria angustifolia in southern Brazil

Paternity analysis based on eight microsatellite loci was used to investigate pollen and seed dispersal patterns of the dioecious wind- pollinated tree, Araucaria angustifolia. The study sites were a 5.4 ha isolated forest fragment and a small tree group situated 1.7 km away, located in Paran alpha State, Brazil. In the forest fragment, 121 males, 99 females, 66 seedlings and 92 juveniles were mapped and genotyped, together with 210 seeds. In the tree group, nine male and two female adults were mapped and genotyped, together with 20 seeds. Paternity analysis within the forest fragment indicated that at least 4% of the seeds, 3% of the seedlings and 7% of the juveniles were fertilized by pollen from trees in the adjacent group, and 6% of the seeds were fertilized by pollen from trees outside these stands. The average pollination distance within the forest fragment was 83 m; when the tree group was included the pollination distance was 2006m. The average number of effective pollen donors was estimated as 12.6. Mother- trees within the fragment could be assigned to all seedlings and juveniles, suggesting an absence of seed immigration. The distance of seedlings and juveniles from their assigned mother- trees ranged from 0.35 to 291m ( with an average of 83m). Significant spatial genetic structure among adult trees, seedlings, and juveniles was detected up to 50m, indicating seed dispersal over a short distance. The effective pollination neighborhood ranged from 0.4 to 3.3 ha. The results suggest that seed dispersal is restricted but that there is longdistance pollen dispersal between the forest fragment and the tree group; thus, the two stands of trees are not isolated.

An event-based approach to validating solar wind speed predictions: high-speed enhancements in the Wang-Sheeley-Arge model

One of the primary goals of the Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling (CISM) effort is to assess and improve prediction of the solar wind conditions in near‐Earth space, arising from both quasi‐steady and transient structures. We compare 8 years of L1 in situ observations to predictions of the solar wind speed made by the Wang‐Sheeley‐Arge (WSA) empirical model. The mean‐square error (MSE) between the observed and model predictions is used to reach a number of useful conclusions: there is no systematic lag in the WSA predictions, the MSE is found to be highest at solar minimum and lowest during the rise to solar maximum, and the optimal lead time for 1 AU solar wind speed predictions is found to be 3 days. However, MSE is shown to frequently be an inadequate “figure of merit” for assessing solar wind speed predictions. A complementary, event‐based analysis technique is developed in which high‐speed enhancements (HSEs) are systematically selected and associated from observed and model time series. WSA model is validated using comparisons of the number of hit, missed, and false HSEs, along with the timing and speed magnitude errors between the forecasted and observed events. Morphological differences between the different HSE populations are investigated to aid interpretation of the results and improvements to the model. Finally, by defining discrete events in the time series, model predictions from above and below the ecliptic plane can be used to estimate an uncertainty in the predicted HSE arrival times.

Understanding electron heat flux signatures in the solar wind

Suprathermal electrons (E > 80 eV) carry heat flux away from the Sun. Processes controlling the heat flux are not well understood. To gain insight into these processes, we model heat flux as a linear dependence on two independent parameters: electron number flux and electron pitch angle anisotropy. Pitch angle anisotropy is further modeled as a linear dependence on two solar wind components: magnetic field strength and plasma density. These components show no correlation with number flux, reinforcing its independence from pitch angle anisotropy. Multiple linear regression applied to 2 years of Wind data shows good correspondence between modeled and observed heat flux and anisotropy. The results suggest that the interplay of solar wind parameters and electron number flux results in distinctive heat flux dropouts at heliospheric features like plasma sheets but that these parameters continuously modify heat flux. This is inconsistent with magnetic disconnection as the primary cause of heat flux dropouts. Analysis of fast and slow solar wind regimes separately shows that electron number flux and pitch angle anisotropy are equally correlated with heat flux in slow wind but that number flux is the dominant correlative in fast wind. Also, magnetic field strength correlates better with pitch angle anisotropy in slow wind than in fast wind. The energy dependence of the model fits suggests different scattering processes in fast and slow wind.

In-street wind direction variability in the vicinity of a busy intersection in central London

We present results from fast-response wind measurements within and above a busy intersection between two street canyons (Marylebone Road and Gloucester Place) in Westminster, London taken as part of the DAPPLE (Dispersion of Air Pollution and Penetration into the Local Environment; www.dapple.org.uk) 2007 field campaign. The data reported here were collected using ultrasonic anemometers on the roof-top of a building adjacent to the intersection and at two heights on a pair of lamp-posts on opposite sides of the intersection. Site characteristics, data analysis and the variation of intersection flow with the above-roof wind direction (θref) are discussed. Evidence of both flow channelling and recirculation was identified within the canyon, only a few metres from the intersection for along-street and across-street roof-top winds respectively. Results also indicate that for oblique rooftop flows, the intersection flow is a complex combination of bifurcated channelled flows, recirculation and corner vortices. Asymmetries in local building geometry around the intersection and small changes in the background wind direction (changes in 15-min mean θref of 5–10 degrees) were also observed to have profound influences on the behaviour of intersection flow patterns. Consequently, short time-scale variability in the background flow direction can lead to highly scattered in-street mean flow angles masking the true multi-modal features of the flow and thus further complicating modelling challenges.

Intermittent release of transients in the slow solar wind: 2. In situ evidence

In paper 1, we showed that the Heliospheric Imager (HI) instruments on the pair of NASA STEREO spacecraft can be used to image the streamer belt and, in particular, the variability of the slow solar wind which originates near helmet streamers. The observation of intense intermittent transient outflow by HI implies that the corresponding in situ observations of the slow solar wind and corotating interaction regions (CIRs) should contain many signatures of transients. In the present paper, we compare the HI observations with in situ measurements from the STEREO and ACE spacecraft. Analysis of the solar wind ion, magnetic field, and suprathermal electron flux measurements from the STEREO spacecraft reveals the presence of both closed and partially disconnected interplanetary magnetic field lines permeating the slow solar wind. We predict that one of the transients embedded within the second CIR (CIR‐D in paper 1) should impact the near‐Earth ACE spacecraft. ACE measurements confirm the presence of a transient at the time of CIR passage; the transient signature includes helical magnetic fields and bidirectional suprathermal electrons. On the same day, a strahl electron dropout is observed at STEREO‐B, correlated with the passage of a high plasma beta structure. Unlike ACE, STEREO‐B observes the transient a few hours ahead of the CIR. STEREO‐A, STEREO‐B, and ACE spacecraft observe very different slow solar wind properties ahead of and during the CIR analyzed in this paper, which we associate with the intermittent release of transients.

Wave-driven wind jets in the marine atmospheric boundary layer

The interaction between ocean surface waves and the overlying wind leads to a transfer of momentum across the air–sea interface. Atmospheric and oceanic models typically allow for momentum transfer to be directed only downward, from the atmosphere to the ocean. Recent observations have suggested that momentum can also be transferred upward when long wavelength waves, characteristic of remotely generated swell, propagate faster than the wind speed. The effect of upward momentum transfer on the marine atmospheric boundary layer is investigated here using idealized models that solve the momentum budget above the ocean surface. A variant of the classical Ekman model that accounts for the wave-induced stress demonstrates that, although the momentum flux due to the waves penetrates only a small fraction of the depth of the boundary layer, the wind profile is profoundly changed through its whole depth. When the upward momentum transfer from surface waves sufficiently exceeds the downward turbulent momentum flux, then the near-surface wind accelerates, resulting in a low-level wave-driven wind jet. This increases the Coriolis force in the boundary layer, and so the wind turns in the opposite direction to the classical Ekman layer. Calculations of the wave-induced stress due to a wave spectrum representative of fast-moving swell demonstrate upward momentum transfer that is dominated by contributions from waves in the vicinity of the peak in the swell spectrum. This is in contrast to wind-driven waves whose wave-induced stress is dominated by very short wavelength waves. Hence the role of swell can be characterized by the inverse wave age based on the wave phase speed corresponding to the peak in the spectrum. For a spectrum of waves, the total momentum flux is found to reverse sign and become upward, from waves to wind, when the inverse wave age drops below the range 0.15–0.2, which agrees reasonably well with previously published oceanic observations.

Genetic structure and systematic relationships within the Ophrys fuciflora aggregate (Orchidaceae: Orchidinae): high diversity in Kent and a wind-induced discontinuity bisecting the Adriatic

A recent phylogenetic study based on multiple datasets is used as the framework for a more detailed examination of one of the ten molecularly circumscribed groups identified, the Ophrys fuciflora aggregate. The group is highly morphologically variable, prone to phenotypic convergence, shows low levels of sequence divergence and contains an unusually large proportion of threatened taxa, including the rarest Ophrys species in the UK. The aims of this study were to (a) circumscribe minimum resolvable genetically distinct entities within the O. fuciflora aggregate, and (b) assess the likelihood of gene flow between genetically and geographically distinct entities at the species and population levels. Fifty-five accessions sampled in Europe and Asia Minor from the O. fuciflora aggregate were studied using the AFLP genetic fingerprinting technique to evaluate levels of infraspecific and interspecific genetic variation and to assess genetic relationships between UK populations of O. fuciflora s.s. in Kent and in their continental European and Mediterranean counterparts. The two genetically and geographically distinct groups recovered, one located in England and central Europe and one in south-eastern Europe, are incongruent with current species delimitation within the aggregate as a whole and also within O. fuciflora s.s. Genetic diversity is higher in Kent than in the rest of western and central Europe. Gene flow is more likely to occur between populations in closer geographical proximity than those that are morphologically more similar. Little if any gene flow occurs between populations located in the south-eastern Mediterranean and those dispersed throughout the remainder of the distribution, revealing a genetic discontinuity that runs north-south through the Adriatic. This discontinuity is also evident in other clades of Ophrys and is tentatively attributed to the long-term influence of prevailing winds on the long-distance distribution of pollinia and especially seeds. A cline of gene flow connects populations from Kent and central and southern Europe; these individuals should therefore be considered part of an extensive meta-population. Gene flow is also evident among populations from Kent, which appear to constitute a single metapopulation. They show some evidence of hybridization, and possibly also introgression, with O. apifera.

Magnetic discontinuities in the near-earth solar wind: evidence of in-transit turbulence or remnants of coronal structure?

Fluctuations in the solar wind plasma and magnetic field are well described by the sum of two power law distributions. It has been postulated that these distributions are the result of two independent processes: turbulence, which contributes mainly to the smaller fluctuations, and crossing the boundaries of flux tubes of coronal origin, which dominates the larger variations. In this study we explore the correspondence between changes in the magnetic field with changes in other solar wind properties. Changes in density and temperature may result from either turbulence or coronal structures, whereas changes in composition, such as the alpha-to-proton ratio are unlikely to arise from in-transit effects. Observations spanning the entire ACE dataset are compared with a null hypothesis of no correlation between magnetic field discontinuities and changes in other solar wind parameters. Evidence for coronal structuring is weaker than for in-transit turbulence, with only ∼ 25% of large magnetic field discontinuities associated with a significant change in the alpha-to-proton ratio, compared to ∼ 40% for significant density and temperature changes. However, note that a lack of detectable alpha-to-proton signature is not sufficient to discount a structure as having a solar origin.