Improving assessment and modelling of climate change impacts on global terrestrial biodiversity.

Understanding how species and ecosystems respond to climate change has become a major focus of ecology and conservation biology. Modelling approaches provide important tools for making future projections, but current models of the climate-biosphere interface remain overly simplistic, undermining the credibility of projections. We identify five ways in which substantial advances could be made in the next few years: (i) improving the accessibility and efficiency of biodiversity monitoring data, (ii) quantifying the main determinants of the sensitivity of species to climate change, (iii) incorporating community dynamics into projections of biodiversity responses, (iv) accounting for the influence of evolutionary processes on the response of species to climate change, and (v) improving the biophysical rule sets that define functional groupings of species in global models.

Highly contrasting effects of different climate forcing agents on terrestrial ecosystem services

Many atmospheric constituents besides carbon dioxide (CO2) contribute to global warming, and it is common to compare their influence on climate in terms of radiative forcing, which measures their impact on the planetary energy budget. A number of recent studies have shown that many radiatively active constituents also have important impacts on the physiological functioning of ecosystems, and thus the ‘ecosystem services’ that humankind relies upon. CO2 increases have most probably increased river runoff and had generally positive impacts on plant growth where nutrients are non-limiting, whereas increases in near-surface ozone (O3) are very detrimental to plant productivity. Atmospheric aerosols increase the fraction of surface diffuse light, which is beneficial for plant growth. To illustrate these differences, we present the impact on net primary productivity and runoff of higher CO2, higher near-surface O3, and lower sulphate aerosols, and for equivalent changes in radiative forcing.We compare this with the impact of climate change alone, arising, for example, from a physiologically inactive gas such as methane (CH4). For equivalent levels of change in radiative forcing, we show that the combined climate and physiological impacts of these individual agents vary markedly and in some cases actually differ in sign. This study highlights the need to develop more informative metrics of the impact of changing atmospheric constituents that go beyond simple radiative forcing.

Committed terrestrial ecosystem changes due to climate change

Targets for stabilizing climate change are often based on considerations of the impacts of different levels of global warming, usually assessing the time of reaching a particular level of warming. However, some aspects of the Earth system, such as global mean temperatures1 and sea level rise due to thermal expansion2 or the melting of large ice sheets3, continue to respond long after the stabilization of radiative forcing. Here we use a coupled climate–vegetation model to show that in turn the terrestrial biosphere shows significant inertia in its response to climate change. We demonstrate that the global terrestrial biosphere can continue to change for decades after climate stabilization. We suggest that ecosystems can be committed to long-term change long before any response is observable: for example, we find that the risk of significant loss of forest cover in Amazonia rises rapidly for a global mean temperature rise above 2 °C. We conclude that such committed ecosystem changes must be considered in the definition of dangerous climate change, and subsequent policy development to avoid it.

Effects of plant pathogens on population dynamics and community composition in grassland ecosystems: two case studies

Grassland ecosystems comprise a major portion of the earth’s terrestrial surface, ranging from high-input cultivated monocultures or simple species mixtures to relatively unmanaged but dynamic systems. Plant pathogens are a component of these systems with their impact dependent on many interacting factors, including grassland species population dynamics and community composition, the topics covered in this paper. Plant pathogens are affected by these interactions and also act reciprocally by modifying their nature. We review these features of disease in grasslands and then introduce the 150-year long-term Park Grass Experiment (PGE) at Rothamsted Research in the UK. We then consider in detail two plant-pathogen systems present in the PGE, Tragopogon pratensis-Puccinia hysterium and Holcus lanata-Puccinia coronata. These two systems have very different life history characteristics: the first, a biennial member of the Asteraceae infected by its host-specific, systemic rust; the second, a perennial grass infected by a host-non-specific rust. We illustrate how observational, experimental and modelling studies can contribute to a better understanding of population dynamics, competitive interactions and evolutionary outcomes. With Tragopogon pratensis-Puccinia hysterium, characterised as an “outbreak” species in the PGE, we show that pathogen-induced mortality is unlikely to be involved in host population regulation; and that the presence of even a short-lived seed-bank can affect the qualitative outcomes of the host-pathogen dynamics. With Holcus lanata-Puccinia coronata, we show how nutrient conditions can affect adaptation in terms of host defence mechanisms, and that co-existence of competing species affected by a common generalist pathogen is unlikely.

An Integrated Assessment of changes in the thermohaline circulation

This paper discusses the risks of a shutdown of the thermohaline circulation (THC) for the climate system, for ecosystems in and around the North Atlantic as well as for fisheries and agriculture by way of an Integrated Assessment. The climate model simulations are based on greenhouse gas scenarios for the 21st century and beyond. A shutdown of the THC, complete by 2150, is triggered if increased freshwater input from inland ice melt or enhanced runoff is assumed. The shutdown retards the greenhouse gas-induced atmospheric warming trend in the Northern Hemisphere, but does not lead to a persistent net cooling. Due to the simulated THC shutdown the sea level at the North Atlantic shores rises by up to 80 cm by 2150, in addition to the global sea level rise. This could potentially be a serious impact that requires expensive coastal protection measures. A reduction of marine net primary productivity is associated with the impacts of warming rather than a THC shutdown. Regional shifts in the currents in the Nordic Seas could strongly deteriorate survival chances for cod larvae and juveniles. This could lead to cod fisheries becoming unprofitable by the end of the 21st century. While regional socioeconomic impacts might be large, damages would be probably small in relation to the respective gross national products. Terrestrial ecosystem productivity is affected much more by the fertilization from the increasing CO2 concentration than by a THC shutdown. In addition, the level of warming in the 22nd to 24th century favours crop production in northern Europe a lot, no matter whether the THC shuts down or not. CO2 emissions corridors aimed at limiting the risk of a THC breakdown to 10% or less are narrow, requiring departure from business-as-usual in the next few decades. The uncertainty about THC risks is still high. This is seen in model analyses as well as in the experts’ views that were elicited. The overview of results presented here is the outcome of the Integrated Assessment project INTEGRATION.

Assessing nitrogen dynamics in European ecosystems, integrating measurement and modelling: conclusions

This contribution closes this special issue of Hydrology and Earth System Sciences concerning the assessment of nitrogen dynamics in catchments across Europe within a semi-distributed Integrated Nitrogen model for multiple source assessment in Catchments (INCA). New developments in the understanding of the factors and processes determining the concentrations and loads of nitrogen are outlined. The ability of the INCA model to simulate the hydrological and nitrogen dynamics of different European ecosystems is assessed and the results of the first scenario analyses investigating the impacts of deposition, climatic and land-use change on the nitrogen dynamics are summarised. Consideration is given as to how well the model has performed as a generic too] for describing the nitrogen dynamics of European ecosystems across Arctic, Maritime. Continental and Mediterranean climates, its role in new research initiatives and future research requirements.

The Upper Valanginian (Early Cretaceous) positive carbon-isotope event recorded in terrestrial plants

Our understanding of the ancient ocean-atmosphere system has focused on oceanic proxies. However, the study of terrestrial proxies is equally necessary to constrain our understanding of ancient climates and linkages between the terrestrial and oceanic carbon reservoirs. We have analyzed carbon-isotope ratios from fossil plant material through the Valanginian and Lower Hauterivian from a shallow-marine, ammonite-constrained succession in the Crimean Peninsula of the southern Ukraine in order to determine if the Upper Valanginian positive carbon-isotope excursion is expressed in the atmosphere. delta(13)C(plant) values fluctuate around -23% to -22% for the Valanginian-Hauterivian, except during the Upper Valanginian where delta(13)C(plant) values record a positive excursion to similar to-18%. Based upon ammonite biostratigraphy from Crimea, and in conjunction with a composite Tethyan marine delta(13)C(carb) curve, several conclusions can be drawn: (1) the delta(13)C(plant) record indicates that the atmospheric carbon reservoir was affected; (2) the defined ammonite correlations between Europe and Crimea are synchronous; and (3) a change in photosynthetic carbon-isotope fractionation, caused by a decrease in atmospheric PCO2, occurred during the Upper Valanginian Positive delta(13)C excursion. Our new data, combined with other paleoenvironmental and paleoclimatic information, indicate that the Upper Valanginian was a cool period (icehouse) and highlights that the Cretaceous period was interrupted by periods of cooling and was not an equable climate as previously thought. (C) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Terrestrial implications for the maritime geoarchaeological resource: A view from the Lower Palaeolithic

Stone tools and faunal remains have been recovered from the English Channel and the North Sea through trawling, dredging for aggregates, channel clearance, and coring. These finds highlight the potential for a maritime Lower Palaeolithic archaeological resource. It is proposed here that any Lower Palaeolithic artefacts, faunal remains, and sediments deposited in the maritime zone during dry, low-stand phases were once (and may still be) contextually similar to their counterparts in the terrestrial Lower Palaeolithic records of north-western Europe. Given these similarities, can interpretive models and analytical frameworks developed for terrestrial archaeology be profitably applied to an assessment of the potential value of any maritime resource? The terrestrial geoarchaeological resource for the Lower Palaeolithic is dominated by artefacts and ecofacts that have been fluvially reworked. The spatio-temporal resolution of these data varies from entire river valleys and marine isotope stages to river channel gravel bar surfaces and decadal timescales, thus supporting a variety of questions and approaches. However, the structure of the terrestrial resource also highlights two fundamental limitations in current maritime knowledge that can restrict the application of terrestrial approaches to any potential maritime resource: (i) how have the repetitive transgressions and regressions of the Middle and Late Pleistocene modified the terrace landforms and sediments associated with the river systems of the English Channel and southern North Sea basins?; and (ii) do the surviving submerged terrace landforms and fluvial sedimentary deposits support robust geochronological models, as is the case with the classical terrestrial terrace sequences? This paper highlights potential approaches to these questions, and concludes that the fluvial palaeogeography, Pleistocene fossils, and potential Lower Palaeolithic artefacts of the maritime geoarchaeological resource can be profitably investigated in future as derived, low-resolution data sets, facilitating questions of colonisation, occupation, demography, and material culture.

Laboratory simulation of terrestrial meteorite weathering using the Bensour (LL6) ordinary chondrite

Laboratory dissolution experiments using the LL6 ordinary chondrite Bensour demonstrate that meteoritic minerals readily react with distilled water at low temperatures, liberating ions into solution and forming reaction products. Three experiments were performed, all for 68 days and at atmospheric fO(2) but using a range of water/rock ratios and different ternperatures. Experiments I and 2 were batch experiments and undertaken at room temperature, whereas in experiment 3, condensed boiling water was dripped onto meteorite subsamples within a Soxhlet extractor. Solutions from experiment 1 were chemically analyzed at the end of the experiment, whereas aliquots were extracted from experiments 2 and 3 for analysis at regular intervals. In all three experiments, a very significant proportion of the Na, Cl, and K within the Bensour subsamples entered solution, demonstrating that chlorapatite and feldspar were especially susceptible to dissolution. Concentrations of Mg, Al, Si, Ca, and Fe in solution were strongly affected by the precipitation of reaction products and Mg and Ca may also have been removed by sorption. Calculations predict saturation of experimental solutions with respect to Al hydroxides, Fe oxides, and Fe (oxy)hydroxides, which would have frequently been accompanied by hydrous aluminosilicates. Some reaction products were identified and include silica, a Mg-rich silicate, Fe oxides, and Fe (oxy)hydroxides. The implications of these results are that even very short periods of subaerial exposure of ordinary chondrites will lead to dissolution of primary minerals and crystallization of weathering products that are likely to include aluminosilicates and silicates, Mg-Ca carbonates, and sulfates in addition to the ubiquitous Fe oxides and (oxy)hydroxides.