A singular vector perspective of 4D-Var: Filtering and interpolation

Four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4D-Var) combines the information from a time sequence of observations with the model dynamics and a background state to produce an analysis. In this paper, a new mathematical insight into the behaviour of 4D-Var is gained from an extension of concepts that are used to assess the qualitative information content of observations in satellite retrievals. It is shown that the 4D-Var analysis increments can be written as a linear combination of the singular vectors of a matrix which is a function of both the observational and the forecast model systems. This formulation is used to consider the filtering and interpolating aspects of 4D-Var using idealized case-studies based on a simple model of baroclinic instability. The results of the 4D-Var case-studies exhibit the reconstruction of the state in unobserved regions as a consequence of the interpolation of observations through time. The results also exhibit the filtering of components with small spatial scales that correspond to noise, and the filtering of structures in unobserved regions. The singular vector perspective gives a very clear view of this filtering and interpolating by the 4D-Var algorithm and shows that the appropriate specification of the a priori statistics is vital to extract the largest possible amount of useful information from the observations. Copyright © 2005 Royal Meteorological Society

Atlantic climate variability and predictability: A CLIVAR perspective

Three interrelated climate phenomena are at the center of the Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) Atlantic research: tropical Atlantic variability (TAV), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC). These phenomena produce a myriad of impacts on society and the environment on seasonal, interannual, and longer time scales through variability manifest as coherent fluctuations in ocean and land temperature, rainfall, and extreme events. Improved understanding of this variability is essential for assessing the likely range of future climate fluctuations and the extent to which they may be predictable, as well as understanding the potential impact of human-induced climate change. CLIVAR is addressing these issues through prioritized and integrated plans for short-term and sustained observations, basin-scale reanalysis, and modeling and theoretical investigations of the coupled Atlantic climate system and its links to remote regions. In this paper, a brief review of the state of understanding of Atlantic climate variability and achievements to date is provided. Considerable discussion is given to future challenges related to building and sustaining observing systems, developing synthesis strategies to support understanding and attribution of observed change, understanding sources of predictability, and developing prediction systems in order to meet the scientific objectives of the CLIVAR Atlantic program.

Training drama teachers: a perspective from England

In England, drama is embedded into the National Curriculum as a part of the programmes of study for the subject of English. This means that all children aged between 5 - 16 in state funded schools have an entitlement to be taught some aspects of the subject. While the manifestation of drama in primary schools is diverse, in a great many schools for students aged between 11 – 19, drama and theatre art is taught as a discrete subject in the same way that the visual arts and music are. Students may opt for public examination courses in the subject at ages 16 and 18. In order to satisfy the specifications laid down for such examinations many schools recognise the need for specialist teachers and indeed specialist teaching rooms and equipment. This chapter outlines how drama is taught in secondary schools in England (there being subtle variations in the education systems in the other countries that make up the United Kingdom) and the theories that underpin drama’s place in the curriculum as a subject in its own right and as a vehicle for delivering other aspects of the prescribed curriculum are discussed. The paper goes on to review the way in which drama is taught articulates with the requirements and current initiatives laid down by the government. Given this context, the chapter moves on to explore what specialist subject and pedagogical knowledge secondary school drama teachers need. Furthermore, consideration is made of the tensions that may be seen to exist between the way drama teachers perceive their own identity as subject specialists and the restrictions and demands placed upon them by the education system within which they work. An insight into the backgrounds of those who become drama teachers in England is provided and the reasons for choosing such a career and the expectations and concerns that underpin their training are identified and analysed.

A framework for revitalisation of rural education and training systems in sub-Saharan Africa: Strengthening the human resource base for food security and sustainable livelihoods

Recent studies of the current state of rural education and training (RET) systems in sub-Saharan Africa have assessed their ability to provide for the learning needs essential for more knowledgeable and productive small-scale rural households. These are most necessary if the endemic causes of rural poverty (poor nutrition, lack of sustainable livelihoods, etc.) are to be overcome. A brief historical background and analysis of the major current constraints to improvement in the sector are discussed. Paramount among those factors leading to its present 'malaise' is the lack of a whole-systems perspective and the absence of any coherent policy framework in most countries. There is evidence of some recent innovations, both in the public sector and through the work of non-governmental organisations (NGOs), civil society organisations (CSOs) and other private bodies. These provide hope of a new sense of direction that could lead towards meaningful 'revitalisation' of the sector. A suggested framework offers 10 key steps which, it is argued, could largely be achieved with modest internal resources and very little external support, provided that the necessary leadership and managerial capacities are in place. (C) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Immunogenetics of drug-induced skin blistering disorders. Part I: Perspective

The overall immunopathogenesis relevant to a large series of disorders caused by a drug or its associated hyperimmune condition is discussed based upon the examination of the genetics of severe drug-induced bullous skin problems (sporadic idiosyncratic adverse events, including Stevens-Johnson syndrome and toxic epidermal necrolysis). An overarching pharmacogenetic schema is proposed. Immune cognition and early-effector processes are focused upon and a challenging synthesis around systems evolution is explained by a variety of projective analogies. Etiology, human leukocyte antigen-B, immune stability, clysiregulation, pharmacomimicry, viruses and an aggressive ethnically differentiated 'karmic' response are discussed.

A perspective on chaos theory: Potential applications to intelligent buildings

Mathematical models have been vitally important in the development of technologies in building engineering. A literature review identifies that linear models are the most widely used building simulation models. The advent of intelligent buildings has added new challenges in the application of the existing models as an intelligent building requires learning and self-adjusting capabilities based on environmental and occupants' factors. It is therefore argued that the linearity is an impropriate basis for any model of either complex building systems or occupant behaviours for control or whatever purpose. Chaos and complexity theory reflects nonlinear dynamic properties of the intelligent systems excised by occupants and environment and has been used widely in modelling various engineering, natural and social systems. It is proposed that chaos and complexity theory be applied to study intelligent buildings. This paper gives a brief description of chaos and complexity theory and presents its current positioning, recent developments in building engineering research and future potential applications to intelligent building studies, which provides a bridge between chaos and complexity theory and intelligent building research.

Change in construction: a critical perspective

Change within the construction sector has been a central concern of governments and a select few private-sector clients for a considerable time. The discourse of change emanating from organizations concerned with reform in the construction sector reflects these ongoing concerns for change in the sector. The underlying assumptions of the content of change and appropriate change mechanisms in the UK are critically examined and challenged. In particular, the limitations of measurement and best practice are explored. The allegiance to approaches based on measurement and best practice is acontextual, unreflective and insufficient in providing wholly reliable explanations for the relationship between practice and performance. Claims for the use of measurement and best practice by the reform movement must therefore be understood to have limitations and their use approached with caution. The emphasis on best practice is also understood to direct attention away from understanding the legitimacy of current practice and change within the UK construction sector. An agenda for change in the UK construction sector will need to engage with and be more reflective of current managerial practice and past change initiatives. Contextual approaches such as structuration theory offer a way in which to underpin a research framework that could support the reform movement in setting such an agenda.

Contextual prerequisites for the application of ILS principles to the building services industry

Purpose – This paper proposes assessing the context within which integrated logistic support (ILS) can be implemented for whole life performance of building services systems. Design/methodology/approach – The use of ILS within a through-life business model (TLBM) is a better framework to achieve a well-designed, constructed and managed product. However, for ILS to be implemented in a TLBM for building services systems, the practices, tools and techniques need certain contextual prerequisites tailored to suit the construction industry. These contextual prerequisites are discussed. Findings – The case studies conducted reinforced the contextual importance of prime contracting, partnering and team collaboration for the application of ILS techniques. The lack of data was a major hindrance to the full realisation of ILS techniques within the case studies. Originality/value – The paper concludes with the recognition of the value of these contextual prerequisites for the use of ILS techniques within the building industry.

Ubiquitous monitoring and behavioural change: a semiotic perspective

We are soon approaching the pervasive-era ofcomputing, where computers are embedded intoobjects and the environment in order to provide newservices to users. Significant levels of data arerequired in order for these services to function asintended, and it is this collection of data which werefer to as ubiquitous monitoring. Existing monitoringtechniques have often been known to cause undesirableeffects, and it is anticipated that ubiquitousmonitoring, with its increased coverage, will lead toincreases in their occurrence and impact. To date, theeffects of ubiquitous monitoring on human behaviourhave not been sufficiently investigated, furtherincreasing the risk of undesirable effects. We propose apreliminary model consisting of a series of factorsbelieved to influence human behavior and augmentedby the Theory of Planned Behaviour. This model mayallow us to understand, predict, and therefore preventany undesirable effects caused by ubiquitousmonitoring.

Communities of practice in construction case study organisations: questions and insights

Purpose – At the heart of knowledge management (KM) are the people – an organisation's important knowledge asset. Although this is widely acknowledged, businesses seldom understand this axiom in terms of the communities through which individuals develop and share the capacity to create and use knowledge. It is the collective learning that takes place within the social systems, i.e. communities of practice (CoP) that are of particular significance to an organisation from a KM perspective. This paper aims to review, critique, and raise some pertinent questions on the role of CoPs; and with the help of case studies shed light on the “goings-on” in construction practices. Design/methodology/approach – After critically reviewing the literature on CoPs and querying some underlying assertions, this research investigates how these issues are addressed in practice. A case study approach is adopted. Three organisations operating in the construction sector are interviewed for the purpose of this paper. Findings – Case study findings highlight the potential challenges and benefits of CoPs to a construction organisation, the role they play in generating and delivering value to the organisation and their contribution towards the collective organisational intelligence. From the findings, it is clear that the question is not whether communities exist within organisations, but how they deliver value to the organisation. From an organisational perspective, the key challenge is to provide an environment that is conducive to developing and nurturing such communities as opposed to merely creating them. Practical implications – Challenges and benefits demonstrated through the case studies should be taken in context. The findings are not intended to be prescriptive in nature, but are intentionally descriptive to provide contextual data that allow readers to draw their own inferences in the context of their organisations. They should be applied taking into account an organisation's unique characteristics and differentiators, the dynamics of the environment in which it operates and the culture it harbours within. Originality/value – Investigating the role of CoPs in the context of case study construction organisations forms the prime focus of this paper.

Stability criteria for the contextual emergence of macrostates in neural networks

More than thirty years ago, Amari and colleagues proposed a statistical framework for identifying structurally stable macrostates of neural networks from observations of their microstates. We compare their stochastic stability criterion with a deterministic stability criterion based on the ergodic theory of dynamical systems, recently proposed for the scheme of contextual emergence and applied to particular inter-level relations in neuroscience. Stochastic and deterministic stability criteria for macrostates rely on macro-level contexts, which make them sensitive to differences between different macro-levels.

Contextual emergence of mental states from neurodynamics

The emergence of mental states from neural states by partitioning the neural phase space is analyzed in terms of symbolic dynamics. Well-defined mental states provide contexts inducing a criterion of structural stability for the neurodynamics that can be implemented by particular partitions. This leads to distinguished subshifts of finite type that are either cyclic or irreducible. Cyclic shifts correspond to asymptotically stable fixed points or limit tori whereas irreducible shifts are obtained from generating partitions of mixing hyperbolic systems. These stability criteria are applied to the discussion of neural correlates of consiousness, to the definition of macroscopic neural states, and to aspects of the symbol grounding problem. In particular, it is shown that compatible mental descriptions, topologically equivalent to the neurodynamical description, emerge if the partition of the neural phase space is generating. If this is not the case, mental descriptions are incompatible or complementary. Consequences of this result for an integration or unification of cognitive science or psychology, respectively, will be indicated.

A simulation model of self-organising evolvability in software systems

The evolvability of a software artifact is its capacity for producing heritable or reusable variants; the inverse quality is the artifact's inertia or resistance to evolutionary change. Evolvability in software systems may arise from engineering and/or self-organising processes. We describe our 'Conditional Growth' simulation model of software evolution and show how, it can be used to investigate evolvability from a self-organisation perspective. The model is derived from the Bak-Sneppen family of 'self-organised criticality' simulations. It shows good qualitative agreement with Lehman's 'laws of software evolution' and reproduces phenomena that have been observed empirically. The model suggests interesting predictions about the dynamics of evolvability and implies that much of the observed variability in software evolution can be accounted for by comparatively simple self-organising processes.