The significance of volcanic eruption strength and frequency for climate

A simple physical model of the atmospheric effects of large explosive volcanic eruptions is developed. Using only one input parameter - the initial amount of sulphur dioxide injected into the stratosphere - the global-average stratospheric optical-depth perturbation and surface temperature response are modelled. The simplicity of this model avoids issues of incomplete data (applicable to more comprehensive models), making it a powerful and useful tool for atmospheric diagnostics of this climate forcing mechanism. It may also provide a computationally inexpensive and accurate way of introducing volcanic activity into larger climate models. The modelled surface temperature response for an initial sulphur-dioxide injection, coupled with emission-history statistics, is used to demonstrate that the most climatically significant volcanic eruptions are those of sufficient explosivity to just reach into the stratosphere (and achieve longevity). This study also highlights the fact that this measure of significance is highly sensitive to the representation of the climatic response and the frequency data used, and that we are far from producing a definitive history of explosive volcanism for at least the past 1000 years. Given this high degree of uncertainty, these results suggest that eruptions that release around and above 0.1 Mt SO2 into the stratosphere have the maximum climatic impact.

Self-play: statistical significance

Heinz recently completed a comprehensive experiment in self-play using the FRITZ chess engine to establish the ‘decreasing returns’ hypothesis with specific levels of statistical confidence. This note revisits the results and recalculates the confidence levels of this and other hypotheses. These appear to be better than Heinz’ initial analysis suggests.

The nutritional and clinical significance of lipid rafts

Purpose of review Lipid rafts are potentially modifiable by diet, particularly (but not exclusively) by dietary fatty acids. This review examines the potential for dietary modification of raft structure and function in the immune system, brain and retinal tissue, the gut, and in cancer cells. Recent findings In-vitro and ex-vivo studies suggest that dietary n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs) may exert immunosuppressive and anticancer effects through changes in lipid raft organization. In addition, gangliosides and cholesterol may modulate lipid raft organization in a number of tissues, and recent work has highlighted sphingolipids in membrane microdomains as potential targets for inhibition of tumor growth. The roles of fatty acids and gangliosides, especially in relation to lipid rafts, in cognitive development, age-related cognitive decline, psychiatric disorders, and Alzheimer’s disease are poorly understood and require further investigation. The roles of lipid rafts in cancer, in microbial pathogenesis, and in insulin resistance are starting to emerge, and indicate compelling evidence for the growing importance of membrane microdomains in health and disease. Summary In-vitro and animal studies show that n-3 PUFAs, cholesterol, and gangliosides modulate the structure and composition of lipid rafts, potentially influencing a wide range of biological processes, including immune function, neuronal signaling, cancer cell growth, entry of pathogens through the gut barrier, and insulin resistance in metabolic disorders. The physiological, clinical, and nutritional relevance of these observations remains to be determined.

Variance estimation for systematic sampling from deliberately ordered populations

The systematic sampling (SYS) design (Madow and Madow, 1944) is widely used by statistical offices due to its simplicity and efficiency (e.g., Iachan, 1982). But it suffers from a serious defect, namely, that it is impossible to unbiasedly estimate the sampling variance (Iachan, 1982) and usual variance estimators (Yates and Grundy, 1953) are inadequate and can overestimate the variance significantly (Särndal et al., 1992). We propose a novel variance estimator which is less biased and that can be implemented with any given population order. We will justify this estimator theoretically and with a Monte Carlo simulation study.

Genetic structure and systematic relationships within the Ophrys fuciflora aggregate (Orchidaceae: Orchidinae): high diversity in Kent and a wind-induced discontinuity bisecting the Adriatic

A recent phylogenetic study based on multiple datasets is used as the framework for a more detailed examination of one of the ten molecularly circumscribed groups identified, the Ophrys fuciflora aggregate. The group is highly morphologically variable, prone to phenotypic convergence, shows low levels of sequence divergence and contains an unusually large proportion of threatened taxa, including the rarest Ophrys species in the UK. The aims of this study were to (a) circumscribe minimum resolvable genetically distinct entities within the O. fuciflora aggregate, and (b) assess the likelihood of gene flow between genetically and geographically distinct entities at the species and population levels. Fifty-five accessions sampled in Europe and Asia Minor from the O. fuciflora aggregate were studied using the AFLP genetic fingerprinting technique to evaluate levels of infraspecific and interspecific genetic variation and to assess genetic relationships between UK populations of O. fuciflora s.s. in Kent and in their continental European and Mediterranean counterparts. The two genetically and geographically distinct groups recovered, one located in England and central Europe and one in south-eastern Europe, are incongruent with current species delimitation within the aggregate as a whole and also within O. fuciflora s.s. Genetic diversity is higher in Kent than in the rest of western and central Europe. Gene flow is more likely to occur between populations in closer geographical proximity than those that are morphologically more similar. Little if any gene flow occurs between populations located in the south-eastern Mediterranean and those dispersed throughout the remainder of the distribution, revealing a genetic discontinuity that runs north-south through the Adriatic. This discontinuity is also evident in other clades of Ophrys and is tentatively attributed to the long-term influence of prevailing winds on the long-distance distribution of pollinia and especially seeds. A cline of gene flow connects populations from Kent and central and southern Europe; these individuals should therefore be considered part of an extensive meta-population. Gene flow is also evident among populations from Kent, which appear to constitute a single metapopulation. They show some evidence of hybridization, and possibly also introgression, with O. apifera.

Functional significance of the signal transduction pathways Akt and Erk in ovarian follicles: in vitro and in vivo studies in cattle and sheep

BACKGROUND: The intracellular signalling mechanisms that regulate ovarian follicle development are unclear; however, we have recently shown differences in the Akt and Erk signalling pathways in dominant compared to subordinate follicles. The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of inhibiting Akt and Erk phosphorylation on IGF- and gonadotropin- stimulated granulosa and theca cell function in vitro, and on follicle development in vivo. METHODS: Bovine granulosa and theca cells were cultured for six days and stimulated with FSH and/or IGF, or LH in combination with PD98059 (Erk inhibitor) and/or LY294002 (Akt inhibitor) and their effect on cell number and hormone secretion (estradiol, activin-A, inhibin-A, follistatin, progesterone and androstenedione) determined. In addition, ovarian follicles were treated in vivo with PD98059 and/or LY294002 in ewes on Day 3 of the cycle and follicles were recovered 48 hours later. RESULTS: We have shown that gonadotropin- and IGF-stimulated hormone production by granulosa and theca cells is reduced by treatment with PD98059 and LY294002 in vitro. Furthermore, treatment with PD98059 and LY294002 reduced follicle growth and oestradiol production in vivo. CONCLUSION: These results demonstrate an important functional role for the Akt and Erk signalling pathways in follicle function, growth and development.

Origin and evolution of 3'UTR of flaviviruses: long direct repeats as a basis for the formation of secondary structures and their significance for virus transmission

The 3' untranslated regions (3'UTRs) of flaviviruses are reviewed and analyzed in relation to short sequences conserved as direct repeats (DRs). Previously, alignments of the 3'UTRs have been constructed for three of the four recognized flavivirus groups, namely mosquito-borne, tick-borne, and nonclassified flaviviruses (MBFV, TBFV, and NCFV, respectively). This revealed (1) six long repeat sequences (LRSs) in the 3'UTR and open-reading frame (ORF) of the TBFV, (2) duplication of the 3'UTR of the NCFV by intramolecular recombination, and (3) the possibility of a common origin for all DRs within the MBFV. We have now extended this analysis and review it in the context of all previous published analyses. This has been achieved by constructing a robust alignment between all flaviviruses using the published DRs and secondary RNA structures as "anchors" to reveal additional homologies along the 3'UTR. This approach identified nucleotide regions within the MBFV, NKV (no-known vector viruses), and NCFV 3'UTRs that are homologous to different LRSs in the TBFV 3'UTR and ORF. The analysis revealed that some of the DRs and secondary RNA structures described individually within each flavivirus group share common evolutionary origins. The 3'UTR of flaviviruses, and possibly the ORF, therefore probably evolved through multiple duplication of an RNA domain, homologous to the LRS previously identified only in the TBFV. The short DRs in all virus groups appear to represent the evolutionary remnants of these domains rather than resulting from new duplications. The relevance of these flavivirus DRs to evolution, diversity, 3'UTR enhancer function, and virus transmission is reviewed.

Strategies to prevent falls and fractures in hospitals and care homes and effect of cognitive impairment: systematic review and meta-analyses

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the evidence for strategies to prevent falls or fractures in residents in care homes and hospital inpatients and to investigate the effect of dementia and cognitive impairment. DESIGN: Systematic review and meta-analyses of studies grouped by intervention and setting (hospital or care home). Meta-regression to investigate the effects of dementia and of study quality and design. DATA SOURCES: Medline, CINAHL, Embase, PsychInfo, Cochrane Database, Clinical Trials Register, and hand searching of references from reviews and guidelines to January 2005. RESULTS: 1207 references were identified, including 115 systematic reviews, expert reviews, or guidelines. Of the 92 full papers inspected, 43 were included. Meta-analysis for multifaceted interventions in hospital (13 studies) showed a rate ratio of 0.82 (95% confidence interval 0.68 to 0.997) for falls but no significant effect on the number of fallers or fractures. For hip protectors in care homes (11 studies) the rate ratio for hip fractures was 0.67 (0.46 to 0.98), but there was no significant effect on falls and not enough studies on fallers. For all other interventions (multifaceted interventions in care homes; removal of physical restraints in either setting; fall alarm devices in either setting; exercise in care homes; calcium/vitamin D in care homes; changes in the physical environment in either setting; medication review in hospital) meta-analysis was either unsuitable because of insufficient studies or showed no significant effect on falls, fallers, or fractures, despite strongly positive results in some individual studies. Meta-regression showed no significant association between effect size and prevalence of dementia or cognitive impairment. CONCLUSION: There is some evidence that multifaceted interventions in hospital reduce the number of falls and that use of hip protectors in care homes prevents hip fractures. There is insufficient evidence, however, for the effectiveness of other single interventions in hospitals or care homes or multifaceted interventions in care homes.