63 resultados para Survey of professional forecasters
Resumo:
Although much literature on construction procurement is based on personal experiences, there is little data available to undertake realistic comparison between regions or from one year to another. A survey was undertaken in the UK to examine the feasibility of developing a replicable survey technique that will enable longitudinal studies and international comparisons. The survey showed that a majority felt traditional procurement methods were inappropriate. However, traditional general contracting is still the most common form of procurement. There was strong agreement that economic muscle compels weaker contracting parties to accept onerous contractual terms. There is no relationship between the size of a project and its procurement method, contrary to popular belief. The findings indicate that wider surveys would generate useful data about attitudes.
Resumo:
We investigate the “flux excess” effect, whereby open solar flux estimates from spacecraft increase with increasing heliocentric distance. We analyze the kinematic effect on these open solar flux estimates of large-scale longitudinal structure in the solar wind flow, with particular emphasis on correcting estimates made using data from near-Earth satellites. We show that scatter, but no net bias, is introduced by the kinematic “bunching effect” on sampling and that this is true for both compression and rarefaction regions. The observed flux excesses, as a function of heliocentric distance, are shown to be consistent with open solar flux estimates from solar magnetograms made using the potential field source surface method and are well explained by the kinematic effect of solar wind speed variations on the frozen-in heliospheric field. Applying this kinematic correction to the Omni-2 interplanetary data set shows that the open solar flux at solar minimum fell from an annual mean of 3.82 × 1016 Wb in 1987 to close to half that value (1.98 × 1016 Wb) in 2007, making the fall in the minimum value over the last two solar cycles considerably faster than the rise inferred from geomagnetic activity observations over four solar cycles in the first half of the 20th century.
Biosecurity in agriculture: an economic analysis of coexistence of professional and hobby production
Resumo:
One component of biosecurity is protection against invasive alien species, which are one of the most important threats worldwide to native biodiversity and economic profitability in various sectors, including agriculture. However, agricultural producers are not homogeneous. They may have different objectives and priorities, use different technologies, and occupy heterogeneous parcels of land. If the producers differ in terms of their attitude towards invasive pests and the damages they cause, there are probably external effects in the form of pest spread impacts and subsequent damages caused. We study such impacts in the case of two producer types: profit-seeking professional producers and utility-seeking hobby producers. We show that the hobby producer, having first set a breeding ground for the pest, under-invests in pest control. We also discuss potential policy instruments to correct this market failure and highlight the importance of considering different stakeholders and their heterogeneous incentives when designing policies to control invasive alien species.
Resumo:
A panel of key decision-makers, closely involved in the 1992, 1999 and 2003 CAP reforms, participated in a Delphi survey designed to ascertain what had prompted the European Commission to launch these reform initiatives and what factors were relevant in determining the reform packages subsequently decided by the Council.
Resumo:
A survey was carried out on 55 commercial dairy farms located in the South of Chile during 1995-97. A questionnaire was developed to obtain informed estimates of dairy effluent management on those farms. Information was analysed on an annual basis using a computer spreadsheet linking all the parameters surveyed. In addition, slurry samples were taken for analysis of dry matter content (DM). Herd size varied between 50 and 800 cows per farm. A large proportion of the total volume of effluents produced came from rainfall (46%), dirty water accounted for 29% with only 25% from cow's faeces and urine. The large volume of effluents produced resulted in a reduced storage capacity (on average of 2 months) or more frequent and higher application rates to the field. Only 37% of the farmers knew the application rates of manure and there was a wide range in the quantity used per year (12 m(3)/ha to 300 m(3)/ha). Dairy effluents were applied mainly on grass (71%) throughout the year but, mostly concentrated during the winter and spring time using only surface irrigation system. The total solids contents of effluents was very low, with 62% of the samples being <4% DM. This reflected the large volumes of clean water that the storage tanks received. The information collected has identified problems in effluent management in Chilean dairy farms where research and technology transfer will be necessary to avoid pollution problems.
Resumo:
Aims: To estimate the proportions of farms on which broilers, turkeys and pigs were shedding fluoroquinolone (FQ)-resistant Escherichia coli or Campylobacter spp. near to slaughter. Methods and Results: Freshly voided faeces were collected on 89 poultry and 108 pig farms and cultured with media containing 1.0 mg l(-1) ciprofloxacin. Studies demonstrated the specificity of this sensitive method, and both poultry and pig sampling yielded FQ-resistant E. coli on 60% of farms. FQ-resistant Campylobacter spp. were found on around 22% of poultry and 75% of pig farms. The majority of resistant isolates of Campylobacter (89%) and E. coli (96%) tested had minimum inhibitory concentrations for ciprofloxacin of >= 8 mg l(-1). The proportion of resistant E. coli and Campylobacter organisms within samples varied widely. Conclusions: FQ resistance is commonly present among two enteric bacterial genera prevalent on pig and poultry farms, although the low proportion of resistant organisms in many cases requires a sensitive detection technique. Significance and Impact of the Study: FQ-resistant bacteria with zoonotic potential appear to be present on a high proportion of UK pig and poultry farms. The risk this poses to consumers relative to other causes of FQ-resistant human infections remains to be clarified.
Resumo:
The 2003 reform of the European Union's (EU) Common Agricultural Policy introduced a decoupled income support for farmers called the Single Farm Payment (SFP). Concerns were raised about possible future land use and production changes and their impact on rural communities. Here, such concerns are considered against the workings of the SFP in three EU Member States. Various quantitative studies that have determined the likely impact of the SFP within the EU and the study countries are reviewed. We present the results of a farm survey conducted in the study countries in which farmers' responses to a decoupling scenario similar to the SFP were sought. We found that little short-term change was proposed in the three, rather different, study countries with only 30% of the farmers stating that they would alter their mix of farm activities. Furthermore, less than 30% of all respondents in each country would idle any land under decoupling. Of those who would adopt a new activity, the most popular choices were forestry, woodland and non-food crops. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
P-glycoproteins (p-gps) are ubiquitous membrane proteins from the ABC (ATP-binding cassette) family. They have been found in many animals, bacteria, plants and fungi and are extremely important in regulating a wide range of xenobiotics including pesticides. P-gps have been linked to xenobiotic resistance, most famously in resistance to cancer drug treatments. Their wide substrate range has led to what is known as "multidrug resistance", where resistance developed to one type of xenobiotic gives resistance to a different classes of xenobiotic. P-gps are a major contributor to drug resistance in mammalian tumours and infections of protozoan parasites such as Plasmodium and Leishmania. There is a growing body of literature suggesting that p-gps, and other ABC proteins, are important in regulating pesticide toxicity and represent potential control failure through the development of pesticide resistance, in both agricultural and medical pests. At the same time, aspects of their biochemistry offer new hope in pest control, in particular in furthering our understanding of toxicity and offering insights into how we can improve control without recourse to new chemical discovery. (c) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
Cocoa farms that had been treated and replanted in Ghana during the most recent phase of the cocoa swollen shoot virus (CSSV) eradication campaign were surveyed. Farms that were replanted close to adjoining old cocoa farms or which contained old trees were common in most (38) of the 41 cocoa farms surveyed. CSSV infections were apparent in 20 (53%) out of these 38 farms and they pose a serious risk of causing early infections of the re-planted farms. Control strategies that isolate the newly planted farms by a boundary of immune crops as barriers to reduce CSSV re-infection are discussed. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
A survey against the draft genome sequence and the cDNA/EST database of Ciona intestinalis identified a number of genes encoding transcription factors regulating a variety of processes including development. In the present study, we describe almost complete sets of genes for Fox, ETS-domain transcription factors, nuclear receptors, and NFkappaB as well as other factors regulating NFkappaB activity, with their phylogenetic nature. Vertebrate Fox transcription factors are currently delineated into 17 subfamilies: FoxA to FoxQ. The present survey yielded 29 genes of this family in the Ciona genome, 24 of which were Ciona orthologues of known Fox genes. In addition, we found 15 ETS aenes, 17 nuclear receptor genes, and several NFkappaB signaling pathway genes in the Ciona genome. The number of Ciona genes in each family is much smaller than that of vertebrates, which represents a simplified feature of the ascidian genome. For example, humans have two NFkappaB genes, three Rel genes, and five NFAT genes, while Ciona has one gene for each family. The Ciona genome also contains smaller numbers of genes for the NFkappaB regulatory system, i.e. after the split of ascidians/vertebrates, vertebrates evolved a more complex NFkappaB system. The present results therefore provide molecular information for the investigation of complex developmental processes, and an insight into chordate evolution.