The global-scale impacts of climate change on water resources and flooding under new climate and socio-economic scenarios

This paper presents a preliminary assessment of the relative effects of rate of climate change (four Representative Concentration Pathways - RCPs), assumed future population (five Shared Socio-economic Pathways - SSPs), and pattern of climate change (19 CMIP5 climate models) on regional and global exposure to water resources stress and river flooding. Uncertainty in projected future impacts of climate change on exposure to water stress and river flooding is dominated by uncertainty in the projected spatial and seasonal pattern of change in climate. There is little clear difference in impact between RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 in 2050, and between RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 in 2080. Impacts under RCP8.5 are greater than under the other RCPs in 2050 and 2080. For a given RCP, there is a difference in the absolute numbers of people exposed to increased water resources stress or increased river flood frequency between the five SSPs. With the ‘middle-of-the-road’ SSP2, climate change by 2050 would increase exposure to water resources stress for between approximately 920 and 3400 million people under the highest RCP, and increase exposure to river flood risk for between 100 and 580 million people. Under RCP2.6, exposure to increased water scarcity would be reduced in 2050 by 22-24%, compared to impacts under the RCP8.5, and exposure to increased flood frequency would be reduced by around 16%. The implications of climate change for actual future losses and adaptation depend not only on the numbers of people exposed to changes in risk, but also on the qualitative characteristics of future worlds as described in the different SSPs. The difference in ‘actual’ impact between SSPs will therefore be greater than the differences in numbers of people exposed to impact.

Interaction between a cationic surfactant-like peptide and lipid vesicles and its relationship to antimicrobial activity

We investigate the properties of an antimicrobial surfactant-like peptide (Ala)6(Arg), A6R, containing a cationic headgroup. The interaction of this peptide with zwitterionic (DPPC) lipid vesicles is investigated using a range of microscopic, X-ray scattering, spectroscopic, and calorimetric methods. The β-sheet structure adopted by A6R is disrupted in the presence of DPPC. A strong effect on the small-angle X-ray scattering profile is observed: the Bragg peaks from the DPPC bilayers in the vesicle walls are eliminated in the presence of A6R and only bilayer form factor peaks are observed. All of these observations point to the interaction of A6R with DPPC bilayers. These studies provide insight into interactions between a model cationic peptide and vesicles, relevant to understanding the action of antimicrobial peptides on lipid membranes. Notably, peptide A6R exhibits antimicrobial activity without membrane lysis.

Tuning chelation by the surfactant-like peptide A6H using predetermined pH values

We examine the self-assembly of a peptide A6H comprising a hexa-alanine sequence A6 with a histidine (H) “head group”, which chelates Zn2+ cations. We study the self assembly of A6H and binding of Zn2+ ions in ZnCl2 solutions, under acidic and neutral conditions. A6H self-assembles into nanotapes held together by a β-sheet structure in acidic aqueous solutions. By dissolving A6H in acidic ZnCl2 solutions, the carbonyl oxygen atoms in A6H chelate the Zn2+ ions and allow for β-sheet formation at lower concentrations, consequently reducing the onset concentration for nanotape formation. A6H mixed with water or ZnCl2 solutions under neutral conditions produces short sheets or pseudocrystalline tapes, respectively. The imidazole ring of A6H chelates Zn2+ ions in neutral solutions. The internal structure of nanosheets and pseudocrystalline sheets in neutral solutions is similar to the internal structure of A6H nanotapes in acidic solutions. Our results show that it is possible to induce dramatic changes in the self-assembly and chelation sites of A6H by changing the pH of the solution. However, it is likely that the amphiphilic nature of A6H determines the internal structure of the self-assembled aggregates independent from changes in chelation.

Fluorinated ionic surfactant microemulsions in hydrofluorocarbon 134a (HFC 134a)

The factors influencing the formation of water-in-134a-propellant microemulsions using the fluorinated ionic surfactants ammonium perfluorooctanoate, ammonium perfluoroheptanoate, and sodium perfluorooctanoate has been determined. None of the fluorinated ionic surfactants could be used to prepare clear, one-phase systems when used as sole surfactant, but they could be when combined with a short-chain fluoro- or hydrocarbon alcohol in surfactant:cosurfactant weight-mixing ratios (K(m)) in the range 1:2 to 2:1. When hydrocarbon alcohols were used this clear region extended over a wide range of compositions and was confirmed by means of photon correlation spectroscopy (PCS) to contain microemulsion droplets in the propellant-rich part of the phase diagram. PCS studies performed in the presence of the water-soluble drug terbutaline sulfate showed that it was possible to solubilize the drug within water-in-propellant microemulsion droplets. These studies confirm for the first time that it is possible to prepare water-in-propellant 134a microemulsions using fluorinated ionic surfactants and to solubilize water-soluble drugs within these systems.

Formation of fluorinated nonionic surfactant microemulsions in hydrofluorocarbon 134a (HFC 134a)

A structurally related series of fluorinated nonionic oxyethylene glycol surfactants of the type C(m)F(2m+1)(CH(2))(n)O[(CH(2)CH(2)O)(p)H], denoted C(m.n)E(p) (where m=4, 6, or 7, m=1 or 2, and p=4 or 6) were synthesized and their surface behavior in aqueous solution was characterized. The ability of these surfactants to form water-in-hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) propellant 134a microemulsions suitable for use in the aerosolized delivery of water-soluble drugs has been investigated. Phase studies showed that, regardless of the composition used, clear one-phase systems could not be prepared if a fluorinated nonionic surfactant was used alone, or in combination with a short or medium fluorocarbon alcohol cosurfactant. Clear one-phase systems could, however, be prepared if a short-chain hydrocarbon alcohol, such as ethanol, n-propanol, or n-pentanol, was used as cosurfactant, with the extent of the one-phase region increasing with decreased chain length of the alcohol cosurfactant. Light-scattering studies on a number of the hydrocarbon-alcoholcontaining systems in the propellant-rich part of the phase diagram showed that only systems prepared with C(4.2)E(6) and propanol contained microemulsion droplets (all other systems investigated were considered to be cosolvent systems).

Sensitivity of a hydraulic model to changes in channel erosion during extreme flooding

Recent research into flood modelling has primarily concentrated on the simulation of inundation flow without considering the influences of channel morphology. River channels are often represented by a simplified geometry that is implicitly assumed to remain unchanged during flood simulations. However, field evidence demonstrates that significant morphological changes can occur during floods to mobilise the boundary sediments. Despite this, the effect of channel morphology on model results has been largely unexplored. To address this issue, the impact of channel cross-section geometry and channel long-profile variability on flood dynamics is examined using an ensemble of a 1D-2D hydraulic model (LISFLOOD-FP) of the 1:2102 year recurrence interval floods in Cockermouth, UK, within an uncertainty framework. A series of hypothetical scenarios of channel morphology were constructed based on a simple velocity based model of critical entrainment. A Monte-Carlo simulation framework was used to quantify the effects of channel morphology together with variations in the channel and floodplain roughness coefficients, grain size characteristics, and critical shear stress on measures of flood inundation. The results showed that the bed elevation modifications generated by the simplistic equations reflected a good approximation of the observed patterns of spatial erosion despite its overestimation of erosion depths. The effect of uncertainty on channel long-profile variability only affected the local flood dynamics and did not significantly affect the friction sensitivity and flood inundation mapping. The results imply that hydraulic models generally do not need to account for within event morphodynamic changes of the type and magnitude modelled, as these have a negligible impact that is smaller than other uncertainties, e.g. boundary conditions. Instead morphodynamic change needs to happen over a series of events to become large enough to change the hydrodynamics of floods in supply limited gravel-bed rivers like the one used in this research.

The effect of simulated flooding post-anthesis on pre-harvest sprouting and subsequent seed longevity in contrasting rice cultivars

Unpredictable flooding is a major constraint to rice production. It can occur at any growth stage. The effect of simulated flooding post-anthesis on yield and subsequent seed quality of pot-grown rice (Oryza sativa L.) plants was investigated in glasshouses and controlled-environment growth cabinets. Submergence post-anthesis (9-40 DAA) for 3 or 5 days reduced seed weight of japonica rice cv. Gleva, with considerable pre-harvest sprouting (up to 53%). The latter was greater the later in seed development and maturation that flooding occurred. Sprouted seed had poor ability to survive desiccation or germinate normally upon rehydration, whereas the effects of flooding on the subsequent air-dry seed storage longevity (p50) of the non-sprouted seed fraction was negligible. The indica rice cvs IR64 and IR64Sub1 (introgression of submergence tolerance gene Submergence1A-1) were both far more tolerant to flooding post-anthesis than cv. Gleva: four days’ submergence of these two near-isogenic cultivars at 10-40 DAA resulted less than 1% sprouted seeds. The presence of the Sub1A-1 allele in cv. IR64Sub1 was verified by gel electrophoresis and DNA sequencing. It had no harmful effect on loss in seed viability during storage compared with IR64 in both control and flooded environments. Moreover, the germinability and changes in dormancy during seed development and maturation were very similar to IR64. The efficiency of using chemical spray to increase seed dormancy was investigated in the pre-harvest sprouting susceptible rice cv. Gleva. Foliar application of molybdenum at 100 mg L-1 reduced sprouted seeds by 15-21% following 4 days’ submergence at 20-30 DAA. Analyses confirmed that the treatment did result in molybdenum uptake by the plants, and also tended to increase seed abscisic acid concentration. The latter was reduced by submergence and declined exponentially during grain ripening. The selection of submergence-tolerant varieties was more successful than application of molybdenum in reducing pre-harvest sprouting.

The risk of river flooding

This section of the report outlines the effect of different levels of climate change on exposure to river flood risk, at national and watershed scales.

Uncertainties in tidally adjusted estimates of sea level rise flooding (bathtub model) for the Greater London

Sea-level rise (SLR) from global warming may have severe consequences for coastal cities, particularly when combined with predicted increases in the strength of tidal surges. Predicting the regional impact of SLR flooding is strongly dependent on the modelling approach and accuracy of topographic data. Here, the areas under risk of sea water flooding for London boroughs were quantified based on the projected SLR scenarios reported in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) fifth assessment report (AR5) and UK climatic projections 2009 (UKCP09) using a tidally-adjusted bathtub modelling approach. Medium- to very high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) are used to evaluate inundation extents as well as uncertainties. Depending on the SLR scenario and DEMs used, it is estimated that 3%–8% of the area of Greater London could be inundated by 2100. The boroughs with the largest areas at risk of flooding are Newham, Southwark, and Greenwich. The differences in inundation areas estimated from a digital terrain model and a digital surface model are much greater than the root mean square error differences observed between the two data types, which may be attributed to processing levels. Flood models from SRTM data underestimate the inundation extent, so their results may not be reliable for constructing flood risk maps. This analysis provides a broad-scale estimate of the potential consequences of SLR and uncertainties in the DEM-based bathtub type flood inundation modelling for London boroughs.