Do expert drivers have a reduced illusion of superiority?

It is well established that people tend to rate themselves as better than average across many domains. To maintain these illusions, it is suggested that people distort feedback about their own and others' performance. This study examined expert/novice differences in self-ratings when people compared themselves with others of the same level of expertise and background as themselves. Given that a key expert characteristic is increased self-monitoring, we predicted that experts in a domain may have a reduced illusion of superiority because they are more aware of their actual ability. We compared expert police drivers with novice police drivers and found that this prediction was not supported. Expert police drivers rated themselves as superior to equally qualified drivers, to the same degree as novices, Cohen's d = .03 ns. Despite their extensive additional training and experience, experts still appear to be as susceptible to illusions of superiority Lis everyone else. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Expert system aid for design of overload line distribution networks

The use of expert system techniques in power distribution system design is examined. The selection and siting of equipment on overhead line networks is chosen for investigation as the use of equipment such as auto-reclosers, etc., represents a substantial investment and has a significant effect on the reliability of the system. Through past experience with both equipment and network operations, most decisions in selection and siting of this equipment are made intuitively, following certain general guidelines or rules of thumb. This heuristic nature of the problem lends itself to solution using an expert system approach. A prototype has been developed and is currently under evaluation in the industry. Results so far have demonstrated both the feasibility and benefits of the expert system as a design aid.

Real-time expert system for fault location on high voltage underground distribution cables

To ensure minimum loss of system security and revenue it is essential that faults on underground cable systems be located and repaired rapidly. Currently in the UK, the impulse current method is used to prelocate faults, prior to using acoustic methods to pinpoint the fault location. The impulse current method is heavily dependent on the engineer's knowledge and experience in recognising/interpreting the transient waveforms produced by the fault. The development of a prototype real-time expert system aid for the prelocation of cable faults is described. Results from the prototype demonstrate the feasibility and benefits of the expert system as an aid for the diagnosis and location of faults on underground cable systems.

Power distribution network design aided by an expert system

The next couple of years will see the need for replacement of a large amount of life-expired switchgear on the UK 11 kV distribution system. Latest technology and alternative equipment have made the choice of replacement a complex task. The authors present an expert system as an aid to the decision process for the design of the 11 kV power distribution network.

Expert judgement in the processes of commercial property market forecasting

In this paper, we investigate the role of judgement in the formation of forecasts in commercial property markets. The investigation is based on interview surveys with the majority of UK forecast producers, who are using a range of inputs and data sets to form models to predict an array of variables for a range of locations. The findings suggest that forecasts need to be acceptable to their users (and purchasers) and consequently forecasters generally have incentives to avoid presenting contentious or conspicuous forecasts. Where extreme forecasts are generated by a model, forecasters often engage in ‘self‐censorship’ or are ‘censored’ following in‐house consultation. It is concluded that the forecasting process is significantly more complex than merely carrying out econometric modelling, forecasts are mediated and contested within organisations and that impacts can vary considerably across different organizational contexts.

Current level of consensus on probiotic science: report of an expert meeting, London, 23 November 2009

The present paper summarizes  the consensus views of a group of 9 European clinicians and scientists on the current state of scientific knowledge on probiotics, covering those areas where there is substantial evidence for beneficial effects and those  where the evidence base is poor or inconsistent. There was general agreement that probiotic effects were species and often strain specific. The experts agreed  that some probiotics were effective in reducing the incidence and duration of rotavirus diarrhoea in infants, antibiotic-associated diarrhoea in adults and, for certain probiotics, Clostridium difficile infections. Some probiotics are associated with symptomatic improvements in irritable bowel syndrome and alleviation of digestive discomfort. Probiotics can reduce the frequency and severity of necrotizing enterocolitis in premature infants and have been shown to regulate intestinal immunity.  Several other clinical effects of probiotics, including their role in inflammatory bowel disease, atopic dermatitis, respiratory or genito-urinary infections or H.pylori adjuvant treatment were thought promising but inconsistent.

Expert judgement in the processes of commercial property market forecasting

In this paper we investigate the role of judgement in the formation of forecasts in commercial real estate markets. Based on interview surveys with the majority of forecast producers, we find that real estate forecasters are using a range of inputs and data sets to form models to predict an array of variables for a range of locations. The findings suggest that forecasts need to be acceptable to their users (and purchasers) and consequently forecasters generally have incentives to avoid presenting contentious or conspicuous forecasts. Where extreme forecasts are generated by a model, forecasters often engage in ‘self-censorship’ or are ‘censored’ following in-house consultation. It is concluded that the forecasting process is more complex than merely carrying out econometric modelling and that the impact of the influences within this process vary considerably across different organizational contexts.