Strong armies, slow adaptation: civil-military relations and diffusion of military power

Why are some states more willing to adopt military innovations than others? Why, for example, were the great powers of Europe able to successfully reform their military practices to better adapt to and participate in the so-called military revolution of the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries while their most important extra-European competitor, the Ottoman Empire, failed to do so? This puzzle is best explained by two factors: civil-military relations and historical timing. In the Ottoman Empire, the emergence of an institutionally strong and internally cohesive army during the early stages of state formation—in the late fourteenth century—equipped the military with substantial bargaining powers. In contrast, the great powers of Europe drew heavily on private providers of military power during the military revolution and developed similar armies only by the second half of the seventeenth century, limiting the bargaining leverage of European militaries over their rulers. In essence, the Ottoman standing army was able to block reform efforts that it believed challenged its parochial interests. Absent a similar institutional challenge, European rulers initiated military reforms and motivated officers and military entrepreneurs to participate in the ongoing military revolution.

Introduction: entire hands and main fingers

The ten-volume edition of The Collected Works of Thomas Heywood, forthcoming from Oxford University Press from 2015 to 2022, will attempt to place Heywood’s plays, poetry, and prose back where they belong: at the centre of the study of early modern English literature, drama, and theatre history. Especially as an actor, playwright, reviser, editor, and historical chronicler, Heywood had the longest and widest-ranging career of his contemporaries and thus can reveal how sixteenth- and seventeenth-century authors and theatrical and literary audiences came to see the practice and production of drama.

The heliospheric Hale cycle over the last 300 years and its implications for a “lost” late 18th century solar cycle

A Hale cycle, one complete magnetic cycle of the Sun, spans two complete Schwabe cycles (also referred to as sunspot and, more generally, solar cycles). The approximately 22-year Hale cycle is seen in magnetic polarities of both sunspots and polar fields, as well as in the intensity of galactic cosmic rays reaching Earth, with odd- and even-numbered solar cycles displaying qualitatively different waveforms. Correct numbering of solar cycles also underpins empirical cycle-to-cycle relations which are used as first-order tests of stellar dynamo models. There has been much debate about whether the unusually long solar cycle 4 (SC4), spanning- 1784–1799, was actually two shorter solar cycles combined as a result of poor data coverage in the original Wolf sunspot number record. Indeed, the group sunspot number does show a small increase around 1794–1799 and there is evidence of an increase in the mean latitude of sunspots at this time, suggesting the existence of a cycle ‘‘4b’’. In this study, we use cosmogenic radionuclide data and associated reconstructions of the heliospheric magnetic field (HMF) to show that the Hale cycle has persisted over the last 300 years and that data prior to 1800 are more consistent with cycle 4 being a single long cycle (the ‘‘no SC4b’’ scenario). We also investigate the effect of cycle 4b on the HMF using an open solar flux (OSF) continuity model, in which the OSF source term is related to sunspot number and the OSF loss term is determined by the heliospheric current sheet tilt, assumed to be a simple function of solar cycle phase. The results are surprising; Without SC4b, the HMF shows two distinct peaks in the 1784–1799 interval, while the addition of SC4b removes the secondary peak, as the OSF loss term acts in opposition to the later rise in sunspot number. The timing and magnitude of the main SC4 HMF peak is also significantly changed by the addition of SC4b. These results are compared with the cosmogenic isotope reconstructions of HMF and historical aurora records. These data marginally favour the existence of SC4b (the ‘‘SC4b’’ scenario), though the result is less certain than that based on the persistence of the Hale cycle. Thus while the current uncertainties in the observations preclude any definitive conclusions, the data favour the ‘‘no SC4b’’ scenario. Future improvements to cosmogenic isotope reconstructions of the HMF, through either improved modelling or additional ice cores from well-separated geographic locations, may enable questions of the existence of SC4b and the phase of Hale cycle prior to the Maunder minimum to be settled conclusively.

Testing projected wild bee distributions in agricultural habitats: predictive power depends on species traits and habitat type

Species distribution models (SDM) are increasingly used to understand the factors that regulate variation in biodiversity patterns and to help plan conservation strategies. However, these models are rarely validated with independently collected data and it is unclear whether SDM performance is maintained across distinct habitats and for species with different functional traits. Highly mobile species, such as bees, can be particularly challenging to model. Here, we use independent sets of occurrence data collected systematically in several agricultural habitats to test how the predictive performance of SDMs for wild bee species depends on species traits, habitat type, and sampling technique. We used a species distribution modeling approach parametrized for the Netherlands, with presence records from 1990 to 2010 for 193 Dutch wild bees. For each species, we built a Maxent model based on 13 climate and landscape variables. We tested the predictive performance of the SDMs with independent datasets collected from orchards and arable fields across the Netherlands from 2010 to 2013, using transect surveys or pan traps. Model predictive performance depended on species traits and habitat type. Occurrence of bee species specialized in habitat and diet was better predicted than generalist bees. Predictions of habitat suitability were also more precise for habitats that are temporally more stable (orchards) than for habitats that suffer regular alterations (arable), particularly for small, solitary bees. As a conservation tool, SDMs are best suited to modeling rarer, specialist species than more generalist and will work best in long-term stable habitats. The variability of complex, short-term habitats is difficult to capture in such models and historical land use generally has low thematic resolution. To improve SDMs’ usefulness, models require explanatory variables and collection data that include detailed landscape characteristics, for example, variability of crops and flower availability. Additionally, testing SDMs with field surveys should involve multiple collection techniques.

Rethinking the Conversion of Scotland in the fifth and sixth centuries

Reconsidering the initial Christian Conversion of Scotland in the fifth and sixth centuries AD, using archaeological and historical evidence, it is argued that this was carried out by missionaries from what had been Roman Britain. It is shown that this missionary activity - and similar British missions in Ireland - represents the first instance of Western missionary work beyond the former Roman imperial frontiers. The location of the northern frontier of Roman Britain in the fourth century, and the meaning of Pictish Class 1 symbol stones, are discussed as part of the broader argument.

Gender, childhood and children’s literature: the CIRCL approach

This paper explores the unique approach to childhood and children’s literature of the research and teaching of the ‘Graduate Centre for International Research in Childhood: Literature, Culture, Media (CIRCL)’. CIRCL follows in its work the arguments of UK critical theorist Jacqueline Rose in her seminal 1984 book The case of Peter Pan or the impossibility of children’s fiction. Rose’s work has been widely and routinely referenced in Children’s Literature studies particularly, but CIRCL interprets her arguments as having quite different implications than those usually assumed. Rose is generally attributed with having pointed out that ‘childhood’ is not one, homogenous category, but that childhood is divided by gender, race, and ethnic, political and religious (and so on) identities. But for CIRCL this is only a first step in Rose’s arguments and certainly one not unique to her work anyway: the perception of various cultural and historical childhoods is widely held. Instead, my paper explores how Rose’s arguments are centrally about how ‘childhood’ itself cannot be maintained in the face of division, a division, moreover, which operates inevitably at every level, and which derives from Rose’s interpretation of psychoanalysis as formulated by Sigmund Freud, which Rose derives in turn from her readings of the interpretations of Freud by French analyst Jacques Lacan and French critical theorist Jacques Derrida. Finally, my paper argues how Rose’s position is about any ‘identity’, including gender and that this allies her work closely to that of the famous gender theorist Judith Butler, whose arguments are often (mis) understood in the same ways as those of Rose.

The status and challenge of global fire modelling

Biomass burning impacts vegetation dynamics, biogeochemical cycling, atmospheric chemistry, and climate, with sometimes deleterious socio-economic impacts. Under future climate projections it is often expected that the risk of wildfires will increase. Our ability to predict the magnitude and geographic pattern of future fire impacts rests on our ability to model fire regimes, either using well-founded empirical relationships or process-based models with good predictive skill. A large variety of models exist today and it is still unclear which type of model or degree of complexity is required to model fire adequately at regional to global scales. This is the central question underpinning the creation of the Fire Model Intercomparison Project - FireMIP, an international project to compare and evaluate existing global fire models against benchmark data sets for present-day and historical conditions. In this paper we summarise the current state-of-the-art in fire regime modelling and model evaluation, and outline what essons may be learned from FireMIP.

The recuperated materiality of disability and animal studies

This chapter considers a perhaps unexpected connection between disability and animal studies, given disability studies' understandable reluctance to be associated with animal liberation/rights struggles. It finds that both fields remain rooted in ideas of experience and feeling, or the notion of an essential embodied experience, even while they offer up critiques of the way essentialism operates more broadly to disenfranchise or disadvantage the groups they represent. The chapter goes on to analyse what the implications are of this notion of 'embodiment' and the materialism that accompanies it, it foregrounds the contradictions that ensue, and then discusses what this means for the way political action is (and can be) conceived of.