A comparative method to evaluate and validate stochastic parametrizations

There is a growing interest in using stochastic parametrizations in numerical weather and climate prediction models. Previously, Palmer (2001) outlined the issues that give rise to the need for a stochastic parametrization and the forms such a parametrization could take. In this article a method is presented that uses a comparison between a standard-resolution version and a high-resolution version of the same model to gain information relevant for a stochastic parametrization in that model. A correction term that could be used in a stochastic parametrization is derived from the thermodynamic equations of both models. The origin of the components of this term is discussed. It is found that the component related to unresolved wave-wave interactions is important and can act to compensate for large parametrized tendencies. The correction term is not proportional to the parametrized tendency. Finally, it is explained how the correction term could be used to give information about the shape of the random distribution to be used in a stochastic parametrization. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society

A 3D stochastic cloud model for investigating the radiative properties of inhomogeneous cirrus clouds

(From author). Comments: First 3D stochastic/fractal model of cirrus; first detailed analysis & explanation of power spectra of ice water content, including first observations of 50-km scale break and mixing-induced steepening of spectrum; first demonstration of the potential effect of wind shear on radiative fluxes by changing fall-streak orientation. Has spawned work on the effect of 3D photon transport on the radiative effects of cirrus clouds.

Dual technological development in Botswana agriculture: A Stochastic input distance function approach

To improve the welfare of the rural poor and keep them in the countryside, the government of Botswana has been spending 40% of the value of agricultural GDP on agricultural support services. But can investment make smallholder agriculture prosperous in such adverse conditions? This paper derives an answer by applying a two-output six-input stochastic translog distance function, with inefficiency effects and biased technical change to panel data for the 18 districts and the commercial agricultural sector, from 1979 to 1996 This model demonstrates that herds are the most important input, followed by draft power. land and seeds. Multilateral indices for technical change, technical efficiency and total factor productivity (TFP) show that the technology level of the commercial agricultural sector is more than six times that of traditional agriculture and that the gap has been increasing, due to technological regression in traditional agriculture and modest progress in commercial agriculture. Since the levels of efficiency are similar, the same patient is repeated by the TFP indices. This result highlights the policy dilemma of the trade-off between efficiency and equity objectives.

Farm-level performance of genetically modified cotton - A frontier analysis of cotton production in Maharashtra

In this paper, the yield increases resulting from the cultivation of Bt cotton in Maharashtra, India, are analysed. The study relies on commercial farm, rather than trial, data and is among the first of its kind to be based on real farm and market conditions. Findings show that since its commercial release in 2002, Bt cotton has had a significant positive impact on yields and on the economic performance of cotton growers in Maharashtra. This difference remains even after controlling for different soil and insecticide inputs in the production of Bt cotton. There is also significant spatial and temporal variation in this 'benefit', and much depends upon where production is taking place and on the season.

Stopping clinical trials because of treatment ineffectiveness: a comparison of a futility design with a method of stochastic curtailment

This paper introduces a simple futility design that allows a comparative clinical trial to be stopped due to lack of effect at any of a series of planned interim analyses. Stopping due to apparent benefit is not permitted. The design is for use when any positive claim should be based on the maximum sample size, for example to allow subgroup analyses or the evaluation of safety or secondary efficacy responses. A final frequentist analysis can be performed that is valid for the type of design employed. Here the design is described and its properties are presented. Its advantages and disadvantages relative to the use of stochastic curtailment are discussed. Copyright (C) 2003 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

Group stochastic search for object detection and tracking

A technique is presented for locating and tracking objects in cluttered environments. Agents are randomly distributed across the image, and subsequently grouped around targets. Each agent uses a weightless neural network and a histogram intersection technique to score its location. The system has been used to locate and track a head in 320x240 resolution video at up to 15fps.