Formulating generalised 'goal games' against nature: An illustration from decision-making under uncertainty in agriculture

The games-against-nature approach to the analysis of uncertainty in decision-making relies on the assumption that the behaviour of a decision-maker can be explained by concepts such as maximin, minimax regret, or a similarly defined criterion. In reality, however, these criteria represent a spectrum and, the actual behaviour of a decision-maker is most likely to embody a mixture of such idealisations. This paper proposes that in game-theoretic approach to decision-making under uncertainty, a more realistic representation of a decision-maker's behaviour can be achieved by synthesising games-against-nature with goal programming into a single framework. The proposed formulation is illustrated by using a well-known example from the literature on mathematical programming models for agricultural-decision-making. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Water uptake and use by morphologically contrasting maize/pea cultivars in sole and intercrops in temperate conditions

Growth and water use of sole crops and intercrops of morphologically contrasting maize and pea cultivars were measured in two years. The maize cultivars were Nancis with erectophile and Sophy with planophile leaves and the pea cultivars Maro a leafy pea and Princess a semi-leafless pea. In the first part of the season water use was lower for sole maize but intercrops and sole pea used similar amounts of water. By 90 days after sowing, when peas had matured, all crops had used similar amounts of water. Maize had slightly greater water use efficiency than peas. Cultivars Nancis and Princess tended to have greater water use efficiency than Sophy and Maro respectively. Intercrops produced more dry matter than sole crops and therefore had consistently greater water use efficiencies.

Crops and cultures in the Pacific: new data and new techniques for the investigation of old questions

Fifty years ago Carl Sauer suggested, controversially and on the basis of theory rather than evidence, that Southeast Asia was the source area for agriculture throughout the Old World, including the Pacific. Since then, the archaeobotanical record (macroscopic and microscopic) from the Pacific islands has increased, leading to suggestions, also still controversial, that Melanesia was a center of origin of agriculture independent of South-east Asia, based on tree fruits and nuts and vegetatively propagated starchy staples. Such crops generally lack morphological markers of domestication, so exploitation, cultivation and domestication cannot easily be distinguished in the archaeological record. Molecular studies involving techniques such as chromosome painting, DNA fingerprinting and DNA sequencing, can potentially complement the archaeological record by suggesting where species which were spread through the Pacific by man originated and by what routes they attained their present distributions. A combination of archaeobotanical and molecular studies should therefore eventually enable the rival claims of Melanesia versus South-east Asia as independent centers of invention of agriculture to be assessed.

Flooding, resettlement and change in livelihoods: evidence from rural Mozambique

Post-disaster development policies, such as resettlement, can have major impacts on communities. This article concerns how and why people's livelihoods change as a result of resettlement, and what relocated people's views of such changes are, in the context of natural disasters. It presents two historically-grounded, comparative case studies of post-flood resettlement in rural Mozambique. The studies show a movement away from rain-fed subsistence agriculture towards commercial agriculture and non-agricultural activities. Ability to secure a viable livelihood was a major determinant of whether resettlers remained in their new locations or returned to the river valleys despite the risks that floods posed. The findings suggest that more research is required into 1) understanding why resettlers choose to stay in or abandon designated resettlement areas; 2) what is meant by 'voluntary' and 'involuntary' resettlement in the context of post-disaster reconstruction; and 3) what the policy drivers for resettlement are in developing countries.

Development of colour and firmness in strawberry crops is UV light sensitive, but colour is not a good predictor of several quality parameters

BACKGROUND: Strawberry (Fragaria × ananassa Duchesne var. Elsanta) plants were grown in polytunnels covered with three polythene films that transmitted varying levels of ultraviolet (UV) light. Fruit were harvested under near-commercial conditions and quality and yield were measured. During ripening, changes in the colour parameters of individual fruit were monitored, and the accuracy of using surface colour to predict other quality parameters was determined by analysing the correlation between colour and quality parameters within UV treatments. RESULTS: Higher exposure to UV during growth resulted in the fruit becoming darker at harvest and developing surface colour more quickly; fruit were also firmer at harvest, but shelf life was not consistently affected by the UV regime. Surface colour measurements were poorly correlated to firmness, shelf life or total phenolics, anthocyanins and ellagic acid contents. CONCLUSION: Although surface colour of strawberry fruits was affected by the UV regime during growth, and this parameter is an important factor in consumer perception, we concluded that the surface colour at the time of harvest was, contrary to consumer expectations, a poor indicator of firmness, potential shelf life or anthocyanin content. Copyright © 2011 Society of Chemical Industry

Assessment of the dietary intake of total flavan-3-ols, monomeric flavan-3-ols, proanthocyanidins and theaflavins in the European Union

Dietary interventions with flavan-3-ols have shown beneficial effects on vascular function. The translation of these findings into the context of the health of the general public requires detailed information on habitual dietary intake. However, only limited data are currently available for European populations. Therefore, in the present study, we assessed the habitual intake of flavan-3-ol monomers, proanthocyanidins (PA) and theaflavins in the European Union (EU) and determined their main food sources using the EFSA (European Food Safety Authority) Comprehensive European Food Consumption Database. Data for adults aged 18–64 years were available from fourteen European countries, and intake was determined using the FLAVIOLA Flavanol Food Composition Database, developed for the present study and based on the latest US Department of Agriculture and Phenol-Explorer databases. The mean habitual intake of flavan-3-ol monomers, theaflavins and PA ranged from 181 mg/d (Czech Republic) to 793 mg/d (Ireland). The highest intakes of flavan-3-ol monomers and theaflavins were observed in Ireland (191/505 mg/d) and the lowest intakes in Spain (24/9 mg/d). In contrast, the daily intake of PA was highest in Spain (175 mg/d) and lowest in The Netherlands (96 mg/d). Main sources were tea (62 %), pome fruits (11 %), berries (3 %) and cocoa products (3 %). Tea was the major single contributor to monomer intake (75 %), followed by pome fruits (6 %). Pome fruits were also the main source of PA (28 %). The present study provides important data on the population-based intake of flavanols in the EU and demonstrates that dietary intake amounts for flavan-3-ol monomers, PA and theaflavins vary significantly across European countries. The average habitual intake of flavan-3-ols is considerably below the amounts used in most dietary intervention studies.

Enhanced biodiversity and pollination in UK agroforestry systems

Monoculture farming systems have had serious environmental impacts such as loss of biodiversity and pollinator decline. The authors explain how temperate agroforestry systems show potential in being able to deliver multiple environmental benefits.

Observed relationships between maize yield and climate in Sri Lanka

The present study evaluated the effects of climate variability on maize (Zea mays L.) yield in Sri Lanka at different spatial scales. Biophysical data from the Department of Agriculture (DOA) in Sri Lanka for six major maize-growing districts (Ampara, Anuradhapura, Badulla, Hambantota, Moneragala, and Kurunegala) from 1990 to 2010 were analyzed. Simple linear regression models were fitted to observed climate data and detrended maize yield to identify significant correlations. The correlation between first differences of maize yield and climate (r) was further investigated at 0.50° grid scale using interpolated climate data. After 2003, significantly positive (p < 0.01) yield trends varied from 154 kg ha–1 yr–1 to 360 kg ha–1 yr–1. The correlations between maize yield and climate reported that five out of six districts were significant at 10% level. Rainfall had a consistent significant (p < 0.10) positive impact on maize yield in Anuradhapura, Hambantota, and Moneragala, where seasonal total rainfall together with high temperature (“hot-dry”) are the key limitations. Further, the seasonal mean temperature had a negative impact on maize yield in Moneragala (“hot-dry”), the only district that showed high temperatures. Badulla district (“cold-dry”) reported a significant (r = 0.38) positive correlation with mean seasonal temperature, indicating higher potential toward increasing temperatures. Each 1°C rise in seasonal mean temperature reduced maize yield by about 5% from 1990 to 2010. Overall, there was a reasonable correlation between district maize yield and seasonal climate in most of the districts within the maize belt of Sri Lanka.

Yield and nitrogen accumulation and partitioning in winter wheat under elevated CO2: A 3-year free-air CO2 enrichment experiment

Fossil fuel combustion and deforestation have resulted in a rapid increase in atmospheric [CO2] since the 1950’s, and it will reach about 550 μmol mol−1 in 2050. Field experiments were conducted at the Free-air CO2 Enrichment facility in Beijing, China. Winter wheat was grown to maturity under elevated [CO2] (550 ± 17 μmol mol−1) and ambient [CO2] (415 ± 16 μmol mol−1), with high nitrogen (N) supply (HN, 170 kg N ha−1) and low nitrogen supply (LN, 100 kg N ha−1) for three growing seasons from 2007 to 2010. Elevated [CO2] increased wheat grain yield by 11.4% across the three years. [CO2]-induced yield enhancements were 10.8% and 11.9% under low N and high N supply, respectively. Nitrogen accumulation under elevated [CO2] was increased by 12.9% and 9.2% at the half-way anthesis and ripening stage across three years, respectively. Winter wheat had higher nitrogen demand under elevated [CO2] than ambient [CO2], and grain yield had a stronger correlation with plant N uptake after anthesis than before anthesis at high [CO2]. Our results suggest that regulating on the N application rate and time, is likely important for sustainable grain production under future CO2 climate.

Education and training futures in horticulture and horticultural science

Horticultural knowledge and skills training have been with humankind for some 10,000 to 20,000 years. With permanent settlement and rising wealth and trade, horticulture products and services became a source of fresh food for daily consumption, and a source of plant material in developing a quality environment and lifestyle. The knowledge of horticulture and the skills of its practitioners have been demonstrated through the advancing civilizations in both eastern and western countries. With the rise of the Agricultural Revolutions in Great Britain, and more widely across Continental Europe in the 17th and 18th centuries, as well as the move towards colonisation and early migration to the New Worlds, many westernised countries established the early institutions that would provide education and training in agriculture and horticulture. Today many of these colleges and universities provide undergraduate, postgraduate and vocational and technical training that specifically targets horticulture and/or horticultural science with some research and teaching institutions also providing extension and advisory services to industry. The objective of this chapter is to describe the wider pedagogic and educational context in which those concerned with horticulture operate, the institutional structures that target horticulture and horticultural science education and training internationally; examine changing educational formats, especially distance education; and consider strategies for attracting and retaining young people in the delivery of world-class horticultural education. In this chapter we set the context by investigating the horticultural education and training options available, the constraints that prevent young people entering horticulture, and suggest strategies that would attract and retain these students. We suggest that effective strategies and partnerships be put in place by the institution, the government and most importantly the industry to provide for undergraduate and postgraduate education in horticulture and horticultural science; that educational and vocational training institutions, government, and industry need to work more effectively together to improve communication about horticulture and horticultural science in order to attract enrolments of more and talented students; and that the horticulture curriculum be continuously evaluated and revised so that it remains relevant to future challenges facing the industries of horticulture in the production, environmental and social spheres. These strategies can be used as a means to develop successful programs and case studies that would provide better information to high school career counsellors, improve the image of horticulture and encourage greater involvement from alumni and the industries in recruitment, provide opportunities to improve career aspirations, ensure improved levels of remuneration, and promote the social features of the profession and greater awareness and recognition of the profession in the wider community. A successful career in horticulture demands intellectual capacities which are capable of drawing knowledge from a wide field of basic sciences, economics and the humanities and integrating this into academic scholarship and practical technologies.

Does fertilizer type and method of application cause significant differences in essential oil yield and composition in rosemary (Rosmarinus officinalis L.)?

Organic fertilizers based on seaweed extract potentially have beneficial effects on many crop plants. Herewe investigate the impact of organic fertilizer on Rosmarinus officinalis measured by both yield and oilquality. Plants grown in a temperature-controlled greenhouse with a natural photoperiod and a controlledirrigation system were treated with seaweed fertilizer and an inorganic fertilizer of matching mineralcomposition but with no organic content. Treatments were either by spraying on to the foliage or wateringdirect to the compost. The essential oil was extracted by hydro-distillation with a Clevenger apparatusand analysed by gas-chromatography mass-spectrometry (GC–MS) and NMR. The chemical composi-tions of the plants were compared, and qualitative differences were found between fertilizer treatmentsand application methods. Thus sprayed seaweed fertilizer showed a significantly higher percentage of�-pinene, �-phellandrene, �-terpinene (monoterpenes) and 3-methylenecycloheptene than other treat-ments. Italicene, �-bisabolol (sesquiterpenes), �-thujene, and E-isocitral (monoterpenes) occurred insignificantly higher percentages for plants watered with the seaweed extract. Each was significantly dif-ferent to the inorganic fertilizer and to controls. The seaweed treatments caused a significant increasein oil amount and leaf area as compared with both inorganic treatments and the control regardless ofapplication method.

Climatic risks and impacts in South Asia: extremes of water scarcity and excess

This paper reviews the current knowledge of climatic risks and impacts in South Asia associated with anthropogenic warming levels of 1.5°C to 4°C above pre-industrial values in the 21st century. It is based on the World Bank Report “Turn Down the Heat, Climate Extremes, Regional Impacts and the Case for Resilience” (2013). Many of the climate change impacts in the region, which appear quite severe even with relatively modest warming of 1.5–2°C, pose significant hazards to development. For example, increased monsoon variability and loss or glacial meltwater will likely confront populations with ongoing and multiple challenges. The result is a significant risk to stable and reliable water resources for the region, with increases in peak flows potentially causing floods and dry season flow reductions threatening agriculture. Irrespective of the anticipated economic development and growth, climate projections indicate that large parts of South Asia’s growing population and especially the poor are likely to remain highly vulnerable to climate change.