Speculative bubbles and the cross-sectional variation in stock returns

Evidence suggests that rational, periodically collapsing speculative bubbles may be pervasive in stock markets globally, but there is no research that considers them at the individual stock level. In this study we develop and test an empirical asset pricing model that allows for speculative bubbles to affect stock returns. We show that stocks incorporating larger bubbles yield higher returns. The bubble deviation, at the stock level as opposed to the industry or market level, is a priced source of risk that is separate from the standard market risk, size and value factors. We demonstrate that much of the common variation in stock returns that can be attributable to market risk is due to the co-movement of bubbles rather than being driven by fundamentals.

Speculative bubble spillovers across regional housing markets

In this paper we determine whether speculative bubbles in one region in the United States can lead bubbles to form in others. We first apply a regime-switching model to determine whether speculative bubbles existed in the U.S. regional residential real estate markets. Our findings suggest that the housing markets in five of the nine census divisions investigated were characterized by speculative bubbles. We then examine the extent to which bubbles spill over between neighboring and more distant regions, finding that the transmission of speculative bubbles and nonfundamentals between regions is multidirectional and does not depend on contiguity or distance

Robust multimodal face and fingerprint fusion in the presence of spoofing attacks

Anti-spoofing is attracting growing interest in biometrics, considering the variety of fake materials and new means to attack biometric recognition systems. New unseen materials continuously challenge state-of-the-art spoofing detectors, suggesting for additional systematic approaches to target anti-spoofing. By incorporating liveness scores into the biometric fusion process, recognition accuracy can be enhanced, but traditional sum-rule based fusion algorithms are known to be highly sensitive to single spoofed instances. This paper investigates 1-median filtering as a spoofing-resistant generalised alternative to the sum-rule targeting the problem of partial multibiometric spoofing where m out of n biometric sources to be combined are attacked. Augmenting previous work, this paper investigates the dynamic detection and rejection of livenessrecognition pair outliers for spoofed samples in true multi-modal configuration with its inherent challenge of normalisation. As a further contribution, bootstrap aggregating (bagging) classifiers for fingerprint spoof-detection algorithm is presented. Experiments on the latest face video databases (Idiap Replay- Attack Database and CASIA Face Anti-Spoofing Database), and fingerprint spoofing database (Fingerprint Liveness Detection Competition 2013) illustrate the efficiency of proposed techniques.

Orde Wingate and the Special Night Squads: A Feasible Policy for Counter-Terrorism?

This article analyses the counter-terrorist operations carried out by Captain (later Major General) Orde Wingate in Palestine in 1938, and considers whether these might inform current operations. Wingate's Special Night Squads were formed from British soldiers and Jewish police specifically to counter terrorist and sabotage attacks. Their approach escalated from interdicting terrorist gangs to pre-emptive attacks on suspected terrorist sanctuaries to reprisal attacks after terrorist atrocities. They continued the British practice of using irregular units in counter-insurgency, which was sustained into the postwar era and contributed to the evolution of British Special Forces. Wingate's methods proved effective in pacifying terrorist-infested areas and could be applied again, but only in the face of 'friction' arising from changes in cultural attitudes since the 1930s, and from the political-strategic context of post-2001 counter-insurgent and counter-terrorist operations. In some cases, however, public opinion might not preclude the use of some of Wingate's techniques.

On the question of proportionality of the count of observed Scrapie cases and the size of holding

Background: The present paper investigates the question of a suitable basic model for the number of scrapie cases in a holding and applications of this knowledge to the estimation of scrapie-ffected holding population sizes and adequacy of control measures within holding. Is the number of scrapie cases proportional to the size of the holding in which case it should be incorporated into the parameter of the error distribution for the scrapie counts? Or, is there a different - potentially more complex - relationship between case count and holding size in which case the information about the size of the holding should be better incorporated as a covariate in the modeling? Methods: We show that this question can be appropriately addressed via a simple zero-truncated Poisson model in which the hypothesis of proportionality enters as a special offset-model. Model comparisons can be achieved by means of likelihood ratio testing. The procedure is illustrated by means of surveillance data on classical scrapie in Great Britain. Furthermore, the model with the best fit is used to estimate the size of the scrapie-affected holding population in Great Britain by means of two capture-recapture estimators: the Poisson estimator and the generalized Zelterman estimator. Results: No evidence could be found for the hypothesis of proportionality. In fact, there is some evidence that this relationship follows a curved line which increases for small holdings up to a maximum after which it declines again. Furthermore, it is pointed out how crucial the correct model choice is when applied to capture-recapture estimation on the basis of zero-truncated Poisson models as well as on the basis of the generalized Zelterman estimator. Estimators based on the proportionality model return very different and unreasonable estimates for the population sizes. Conclusion: Our results stress the importance of an adequate modelling approach to the association between holding size and the number of cases of classical scrapie within holding. Reporting artefacts and speculative biological effects are hypothesized as the underlying causes of the observed curved relationship. The lack of adjustment for these artefacts might well render ineffective the current strategies for the control of the disease.

Juvenile-mature wood transition in pine: correlation between wood properties and candidate gene expression profiles

There is a strong desire to exploit transcriptomics data from model species for the genetic improvement of non-model crops. Here, we use gene expression profiles from the commercial model Pinus taeda to identify candidate genes implicated in juvenile-mature wood transition in the non-model relative, P. sylvestris. Re-analysis of 'public domain' SAGE data from xylem tissues of P. taeda revealed 283 mature-abundant and 396 juvenile-abundant tags (P < 0.01), of which 70 and 137, respectively matched to genes with known function. Based on sequence similarity, we then isolated 16 putative homologues of genes that in P. taeda exhibited widest divergence in expression between juvenile and mature samples. Candidate expression levels in P. sylvestris were almost invariably differential between juvenile and mature woody tissue samples among two cohorts of five trees collected from the same seed source and selected for genetic uniformity by genetic distance analysis. However, the direction of differential expression was not always consistent with that described in the original P. taeda SAGE data. Correlation was observed between gene expression and juvenile-mature wood anatomical characteristics by OPLS analysis. Four candidates (alpha-tubulin, porin MIP1, lipid transfer protein and aquaporin like protein) apparently had greatest influence on the wood traits measured. Speculative function of these genes in relation to juvenile-mature wood transition is briefly explored. Thus, we demonstrate the feasibility of exploiting SAGE data from a model species to identify consistently differentially expressed candidates in a related non-model species.

Future innovations in anti-platelet therapies

Platelets have long been recognized to be of central importance in haemostasis, but their participation in pathological conditions such as thrombosis, atherosclerosis and inflammation is now also well established. The platelet has therefore become a key target in therapies to combat cardiovascular disease. Anti-platelet therapies are used widely, but current approaches lack efficacy in a proportion of patients, and are associated with side effects including problem bleeding. In the last decade, substantial progress has been made in understanding the regulation of platelet function, including the characterization of new ligands, platelet-specific receptors and cell signalling pathways. It is anticipated this progress will impact positively on the future innovations towards more effective and safer anti-platelet agents. In this review, the mechanisms of platelet regulation and current anti-platelet therapies are introduced, and strong, and some more speculative, potential candidate target molecules for future anti-platelet drug development are discussed.

Avoidance responses of an aphidophagous ladybird, Adalia bipunctata, to aphid-tending ants

1. Insect predators often aggregrate to patches of high prey density and use prey chemicals as cues for oviposition. If prey have mutualistic guardians such as ants, however, then these patches may be less suitable for predators. 2. Ants often tend aphids and defend them against predators such as ladybirds. Here, we show that ants can reduce ladybird performance by destroying eggs and physically attacking larvae and adults. 3. Unless ladybirds are able to defend against ant attacks they are likely to have adaptations to avoid ants. We show that Adalia bipunctata ladybirds not only move away from patches with Lasius niger ants, but also avoid laying eggs in these patches. Furthermore, ladybirds not only respond to ant presence, but also detect ant semiochemicals and alter oviposition strategy accordingly. 4. Ant semiochemicals may signal the extent of ant territories allowing aphid predators to effectively navigate a mosaic landscape of sub-optimal patches in search of less well-defended prey. Such avoidance probably benefits both ants and ladybirds, and the semiochemicals could be regarded as a means of cooperative communication between enemies. 5. Overall, ladybirds respond to a wide range of positive and negative oviposition cues that may trade-off with each other and internal motivation to determine the overall oviposition strategy.

Plant chemistry and aphid parasitoids (Hymenoptera : Braconidae): Imprinting and memory

Emerging parasitoids of aphids encounter secondary plant chemistry from cues left by the mother parasitoid at oviposition and from the plant-feeding of the host aphid. In practice, however, it is secondary plant cheinistry oil the Surface of the aphid mummy which influences parasitoid olfactory behaviour. Offspring of Aphidius colemani reared oil Myzus persicae on artificial diet did no distinguish between the odours of bean and cabbage, but showed a clear preference for cabbage odour if sinigrin had been painted oil the back of the mummy. Similarly Aphidius rhopalosiphi reared on Metopolophium dirhodum on wheat preferred the odour of wheat plants grown near tomato plants to odour of wheat alone if the wheat plants oil which they had been reared had been exposed to the volatiles of nearby tomato plants. Aphidius rhopalosiphi reared on M dirhodum, and removed from the mummy before emergence, showed a preference for the odour of a different wheat cultivar if they had contacted a mummy from that cultivar, and similar results were obtained with A. colemani naturally emerged from M. persicae mummies. Aphidius colemani emerged from mummies oil one crucifer were allowed to contact in sequence (for 45 min each) mummies from two different crucifers. The mumber of attacks made in 10 min oil M. persicae was always significantly higher when aphids were feeding oil the same plant as the origin of the last MUMMY offered, or oil the second plant if aphids feeding on the third plant were not included. Chilling emerged A. colemani for 24 h at 5 degrees C appeared to erase the imprint of secondary plant chemistry, and they no longer showed host plant odour preferences in the olfactometer. When the parasitoids were chilled after three Successive mummy experiences, memory of the last experience appeared at least temporarily erased and preference was then shown for the chemistry of the second experience.

Competition and dispersal in the pea aphid: clonal variation and correlations across traits

1. The presence of an across-species trade-off between dispersal ability and competitive ability has been proposed as a mechanism that facilitates coexistence. It is not clear if a similar trade-off exists within species. Such a trade-off would constrain the evolution of either trait and, given appropriate selection pressures, promote local adaptation in these traits. 2. This study found substantial levels of heritable variation in competitive ability of the pea aphid, Acyrthosiphon pisum Harris (Homoptera: Aphididae), measured in terms of relative survival when reared with a single clone of the vetch aphid, Megoura viciae Buckton (Homoptera: Aphididae). 3. Pea aphids can move to new patches by either flying (longer distance dispersal) or walking (local dispersal) from plant to plant. There was considerable clonal variation in dispersal ability, measured in terms of the proportion of winged offspring produced, and ability to survive away from their host plant. 4. Winged individuals showed longer off-plant survival times than wingless forms of the same pea aphid clone. 5. There was no evidence of a relationship between clonal competitive ability and either measure of dispersal ability, although the power of the test is limited by the number of pea aphid clones used in the trial. 6. However, there was a positive correlation between clonal fecundity and the proportion of winged offspring produced. Although speculative, it is suggested that clones that are more likely to either overwhelm their host plant or attract higher numbers of natural enemies as a result of having higher fecundity are more likely to produce winged morphs.

Role of oxygen radicals in DNA damage and cancer incidence

The development of cancer in humans and animals is a multistep process. The complex series of cellular and molecular changes participating in cancer development are mediated by a diversity of endogenous and exogenous stimuli. One type of endogenous damage is that arising from intermediates of oxygen (dioxygen) reduction - oxygen-free radicals (OFR), which attacks not only the bases but also the deoxyribosyl backbone of DNA. Thanks to improvements in analytical techniques, a major achievement in the understanding of carcinogenesis in the past two decades has been the identification and quantification of various adducts of OFR with DNA. OFR are also known to attack other cellular components such as lipids, leaving behind reactive species that in turn can couple to DNA bases. Endogenous DNA lesions are genotoxic and induce mutations. The most extensively studied lesion is the formation of 8-OH-dG. This lesion is important because it is relatively easily formed and is mutagenic and therefore is a potential biomarker of carcinogenesis. Mutations that may arise from formation of 8-OH-dG involve GC. TA transversions. In view of these findings, OFR are considered as an important class of carcinogens. The effect of OFR is balanced by the antioxidant action of non-enzymatic antioxidants as well as antioxidant enzymes. Non-enzymatic antioxidants involve vitamin C, vitamin E, carotenoids (CAR), selenium and others. However, under certain conditions, some antioxidants can also exhibit a pro-oxidant mechanism of action. For example, beta-carotene at high concentration and with increased partial pressure of dioxygen is known to behave as a pro-oxidant. Some concerns have also been raised over the potentially deleterious transition metal ion-mediated (iron, copper) pro-oxidant effect of vitamin C. Clinical studies mapping the effect of preventive antioxidants have shown surprisingly little or no effect on cancer incidence. The epidemiological trials together with in vitro experiments suggest that the optimal approach is to reduce endogenous and exogenous sources of oxidative stress, rather than increase intake of anti-oxidants. In this review, we highlight some major achievements in the study of DNA damage caused by OFR and the role in carcinogenesis played by oxidatively damaged DNA. The protective effect of antioxidants against free radicals is also discussed.

Olive oil and haemostasis

Olive oil is a key component of the traditional Mediterranean diet; a diet that may explain the low rate of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in Southern European. (Extra virgin) Olive oil is a good source of monounsaturated fatty acids (MUFA) and phenolic compounds, both of which have been investigated for their effects on plasma lipids and lipoproteins, measures of oxidation and factors related to thrombosis. This issue aims to summarise the current understanding of the effects of such dietary components on the haemostatic system and subsequent risk of CVD. To date, evidence suggests that diets rich in MUFA and thus in olive oil attenuate the thrombotic response via a reduction in platelet aggregation and in postprandial FVII levels. Thrombosis is a key event in causing heart attacks and strokes, which if modulated by diet could pose a cost-effective way of reducing CVD incidence in populations that adhere to MUFA/olive oil-rich diets long-term.

Targeting C-reactive protein for the treatment of cardiovascular disease

Complement-mediated inflammation exacerbates the tissue injury of ischaemic necrosis in heart attacks and strokes, the most common causes of death in developed countries. Large infarct size increases immediate morbidity and mortality and, in survivors of the acute event, larger non-functional scars adversely affect long-term prognosis. There is thus an important unmet medical need for new cardioprotective and neuroprotective treatments. We have previously shown that human C-reactive protein (CRP), the classical acute-phase protein that binds to ligands exposed in damaged tissue and then activates complement(1), increases myocardial and cerebral infarct size in rats subjected to coronary or cerebral artery ligation, respectively(2,3). Rat CRP does not activate rat complement, whereas human CRP activates both rat and human complement(4). Administration of human CRP to rats is thus an excellent model for the actions of endogenous human CRP2,3. Here we report the design, synthesis and efficacy of 1,6-bis(phosphocholine)-hexane as a specific small-molecule inhibitor of CRP. Five molecules of this palindromic compound are bound by two pentameric CRP molecules, crosslinking and occluding the ligand-binding B-face of CRP and blocking its functions. Administration of 1,6-bis(phosphocholine)-hexane to rats undergoing acute myocardial infarction abrogated the increase in infarct size and cardiac dysfunction produced by injection of human CRP. Therapeutic inhibition of CRP is thus a promising new approach to cardioprotection in acute myocardial infarction, and may also provide neuroprotection in stroke. Potential wider applications include other inflammatory, infective and tissue-damaging conditions characterized by increased CRP production, in which binding of CRP to exposed ligands in damaged cells may lead to complement-mediated exacerbation of tissue injury.

Posttraumatic stress symptoms in London school children following September 11, 2001: an exploratory investigation of peri-traumatic reactions and intrusive imagery

Threatening intrusive images are central to posttraumatic stress disorder. It has been suggested that intrusive imagery in the context of a sense of threat leads to the development and persistence of posttraumatic stress symptoms. This study investigates London school children's (N = 76; age 10-11 years) self-reported posttraumatic stress symptoms in response to viewing the attacks of September 11, 2001 on television. Assessments were made at two time points. A minority of participants reported moderate-severe symptoms with functional impairment at 2 months (14.5%) and 6 months (9.2%) after viewing the September 11events. After controlling for symptom stability, persistent symptoms were associated with peri-traumatic factors, notably perceiving that one's life was in danger. The combined effect of intrusive imagery and peri-traumatic life threat was associated with symptom persistence. Assessments of intrusive image content via checklist and free-report indicated that the images were directly related to September 11 and were fairly stable over time. Implications for treating children's intrusive images following stressful events are explored. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Unsupervised genetic algorithm deployed for intrusion detection

This paper represents the first step in an on-going work for designing an unsupervised method based on genetic algorithm for intrusion detection. Its main role in a broader system is to notify of an unusual traffic and in that way provide the possibility of detecting unknown attacks. Most of the machine-learning techniques deployed for intrusion detection are supervised as these techniques are generally more accurate, but this implies the need of labeling the data for training and testing which is time-consuming and error-prone. Hence, our goal is to devise an anomaly detector which would be unsupervised, but at the same time robust and accurate. Genetic algorithms are robust and able to avoid getting stuck in local optima, unlike the rest of clustering techniques. The model is verified on KDD99 benchmark dataset, generating a solution competitive with the solutions of the state-of-the-art which demonstrates high possibilities of the proposed method.